By the time of the Industrial Age and through to WWII, European nations (including European-derived ones like USA) are dominating the entire world. The Americas are already completely conquered. Much of Africa, Middle East, South Asia and East Asia are under European domination. The only non-European power that escaped European domination and remotely competed was Japan but that was very late and was a distant power compared to the European ones.
Now let us go back to a prehistoric-POD (say 5000BC). From this POD, let's run history forward on a million different worlds. Of these million worlds, what is the likelihood of the following by the Industrial Age?
(To the best of my ability, I'll break down the scenarios and assign a percentage of what happens IMHO in these million worlds.)
1) European domination: Whether its domination by Britain, Iberia, Gaul, some modern Charlemagne or Roman-like Empire or combination thereof, European nations and their descendents outside of Europe dominate the world once we reach the industrial age. (80%)
2) East/Southeast Asian domination: (10%)
3) South Asian Domination: (3%)
4) Middle Eastern/Central Asian Domination: Nations/Empires based in Middle East (ex Ottomans, Persians, etc) or Central Asia (ex Mongols, etc) dominate world. (1%)
5) Americas Domination: By this I mean domination by "native peoples" (think Aztecs, Incas, etc) (almost 0%)
6) African Domination: Africans dominate the world (almost 0%)
7) Multi-polar World: No one region completely dominates (like Europe did IOTL). For example, Europe, South Asia and East Asia all manage to stay independent of each other and industrialize around the same time and prevent one region from dominating. Some regions such as the Americas and Africa might be colonized but no one region dominates the world. (5%)
IMHO, due to geographic advantages, 80% of those million worlds will end up with European domination similar to OTL. It has temperate climate, large coastlines encouraging naval expansion, barriers that facilitate distinct stable competing states, right next to the Americas and is in the center of the land hemisphere. In fact I think it is probably closer to 90% so my 80% is probably generous.
The other possibilities like East Asia and South Asia are remote but somewhat plausible. African domination is almost ASB and Americas is completely impossible because of its very late start. Multi-polar world is also very plausible if also remote IMHO.
Do readers agrees? What probabilities would other readers assign to these seven (or more if someone can think of something else I missed) scenarios instead?
Now let us go back to a prehistoric-POD (say 5000BC). From this POD, let's run history forward on a million different worlds. Of these million worlds, what is the likelihood of the following by the Industrial Age?
(To the best of my ability, I'll break down the scenarios and assign a percentage of what happens IMHO in these million worlds.)
1) European domination: Whether its domination by Britain, Iberia, Gaul, some modern Charlemagne or Roman-like Empire or combination thereof, European nations and their descendents outside of Europe dominate the world once we reach the industrial age. (80%)
2) East/Southeast Asian domination: (10%)
3) South Asian Domination: (3%)
4) Middle Eastern/Central Asian Domination: Nations/Empires based in Middle East (ex Ottomans, Persians, etc) or Central Asia (ex Mongols, etc) dominate world. (1%)
5) Americas Domination: By this I mean domination by "native peoples" (think Aztecs, Incas, etc) (almost 0%)
6) African Domination: Africans dominate the world (almost 0%)
7) Multi-polar World: No one region completely dominates (like Europe did IOTL). For example, Europe, South Asia and East Asia all manage to stay independent of each other and industrialize around the same time and prevent one region from dominating. Some regions such as the Americas and Africa might be colonized but no one region dominates the world. (5%)
IMHO, due to geographic advantages, 80% of those million worlds will end up with European domination similar to OTL. It has temperate climate, large coastlines encouraging naval expansion, barriers that facilitate distinct stable competing states, right next to the Americas and is in the center of the land hemisphere. In fact I think it is probably closer to 90% so my 80% is probably generous.
The other possibilities like East Asia and South Asia are remote but somewhat plausible. African domination is almost ASB and Americas is completely impossible because of its very late start. Multi-polar world is also very plausible if also remote IMHO.
Do readers agrees? What probabilities would other readers assign to these seven (or more if someone can think of something else I missed) scenarios instead?
Last edited: