1917 Ausgleich w/o WWI

If the Great War does not break out beforehand,* how does the scheduled Ausgleich in the Austro-Hungarian Empire play out? Does Hungary declare independence? How does this affect Bosnia? Ultimately, what is the fate of the (lands of the) Empire? And how does this affect European alliances and politics?

*preferably with PoD following Franz Ferdinand's assassination

John Fredrick Parker said:

Anyone...?

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Oh come on, you didn't even give it an hour. It generally gets a bit quieter on the forums over the weekend so you usually need to give it a bit more time than normal, that plus it's Saturday night so a lot of people are probably doing other things.

Hungary can't declare independence. Karl (or FF if still alive) would just do what FJ did in 1906; put some reliable general in as Premier of Hungary, and let him rule (by martial law if necessary) until the Magyar pols came back to the real world.

Mikestone8 said:

Hungary can't declare independence. Karl (or FF if still alive) would just do what FJ did in 1906; put some reliable general in as Premier of Hungary, and let him rule (by martial law if necessary) until the Magyar pols came back to the real world.

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Franz Joseph might have lived longer absent the stress of leading his country in a major war in his eighties.

One amusing scenario is for the Hungarians revolt, the Austrians say "Fine but you're not keeping Croatia-Slavonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Transylvania or the Banat" and proceed to use the armed forces to crush the rebel troops forcing them to accept. Hungary gets its independence but is now landlocked and surrounded by Austrian Empire territory. In an ideal world rather than just that they'd impose Hungary's modern borders as well.

Well no, in an ideal world if the Hungarians revolted the Austrians would militarily crush them then proceed to break off the bits mentioned, reduce Hungary to its modern borders, get rid of the gerrymandering the Hungarian magnates had done to massively restrict the electoral franchise, and confiscate large percentages of the magnates lands to distribute it out in plots to the poorer Hungarians. The Austrian Empire is reinstated with the government handling all matters such as diplomacy, the armed forces, foreign trade etc. with slow and measured delegated internal powers/autonomy being introduced to the constituent territories. But that's probably hoping for way too much.

Simon said:

One amusing scenario is for the Hungarians revolt, the Austrians say "Fine but you're not keeping Croatia-Slavonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Transylvania or the Banat" and proceed to use the armed forces to crush the rebel troops forcing them to accept. Hungary gets its independence but is now landlocked and surrounded by Austrian Empire territory. In an ideal world rather than just that they'd impose Hungary's modern borders as well.

Well no, in an ideal world if the Hungarians revolted the Austrians would militarily crush them then proceed to break off the bits mentioned, reduce Hungary to its modern borders, get rid of the gerrymandering the Hungarian magnates had done to massively restrict the electoral franchise, and confiscate large percentages of the magnates lands to distribute it out in plots to the poorer Hungarians. The Austrian Empire is reinstated with the government handling all matters such as diplomacy, the armed forces, foreign trade etc. with slow and measured delegated internal powers/autonomy being introduced to the constituent territories. But that's probably hoping for way too much.

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even better if done by a rejuvinated Franz Joseph who lives another 50 years to see it happen and keep the people loyal.

Vnix said:

Even better if done by a rejuvinated Franz Joseph who lives another 50 years to see it happen and keep the people loyal.

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The bloke was eighty-six when he died, which isn't a bad innings all things considered. Going on for an extra fifty years I think might be pushing things just a bit. Giving him an extra three or four years though isn't quite so implausible and would have the added benefit of allowing for him to push through the territorial changes and then have a fresh start with Karl.

Most likely in chaos, though we can't know for certain. With FF dead the tensions between Hungarian political elites and Vienna are actually somewhat lessened, and it becomes a bit less likely that either of them will do something extremely rash to each other.
Vienna can always try to coddle and appease the Hungarian politicians, but in doing so it risks a serious backlash by the various non-Hungarian minorities which could also become the seed of an international conflict.

One thing is that Austria-Hungary is surrounded by eager enemies, two of which potentially command the loyalty of millions of A-H's citizens. By 1917 the Russian military reform program is coming to a close and Russia looks like more of an unstoppable juggernaut than ever. In Romania, the pro-Austrian King Carol I has been replaced with Ferdinand who made an oath to reign as a Romanian and thus harbored no friendly feelings to Austria-Hungary. Serbia is still there, and it's in much better shape than it was in 1914.

Serbia and Romania are, to put it mildly, not natural allies of a separatist Hungary. But that does not remove the possibility that Istvan Tisza comes to some kind of an understanding with the Russian Empire (all this assuming Vienna makes a move to cripple his clique's power). And even if separatist Hungary doesn't want such allies, it might not be able to physically push them away.

Vienna and Budapest had quite different ideas for Bosnia's future, but it was not especially important to either of them. So whatever problems explode in the Ausgleich, negotiating some kind of a condominium status for Bosnia won't be one of them. Of course, that doesn't actually do anything for Bosnia-Herzegovina's internal stability; if the Agrarian question hasn't been solved in the meantime (and it most likely hasn't) there's a significant risk of having the Serbian plurality declare independence and union with Serbia at the first sign of trouble between Vienna and Budapest. And, while declaring independence isn't the same as getting independence, it's still one of the many ways Austria-Hungary's internal problems can draw in neighbors and become external...

there probably wouldnt be a civil war, it's not like most people in the kingdom of hungary would have supported independence being you know... not ethnic hungarians.

the aristocracy were the loud ones but they could be easily silenced by giving all people in hungary what counted back then as an equal vote. vienna as master was far more popular than budapest as a possible master.

OK, so Hungary doesn't seek independence. What happens during the 1917 renegotiations then? Does AH actually have a good chance of surviving long term?

John Fredrick Parker said:

OK, so Hungary doesn't seek independence. What happens during the 1917 renegotiations then? Does AH actually have a good chance of surviving long term?

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Yes it does. It may need to be reorganized again and again, but the empire won`t collapse on its own without a major war like WWI.

machine3589 said:

Yes it does. It may need to be reorganized again and again, but the empire won`t collapse on its own without a major war like WWI.

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If the board agrees with this, why don't we look then at the political reforms that are both political plausible and sufficient, and when AH would be seeing them. (The absence of Franz Ferdiand taken into consideration.)

1917 is too soon after Franz Joseph's death. The country would be in total mourning and the new Emperor Karl would be given a long "honeymoon" as the people would see what his policies were and how they worked.

Most of the politicians were loudmouths with limited followings and ven less chance to do harm to anyone. Chances are the country muddles through.