AHC: WWI reduced to Third Balkan War

What sorts of events would need to take place to have the Austro-Serbian confrontation of 1914 not escalate so quickly into a general world war? I was playing with the idea of the 1905 Russian Revolution blowing up into something far worse, taking Russia away as an ally of Serbia's, but obviously it might butterfly things a bit too much.

Any takers?

You could have someone having a streak of genius und tell their ally that it would not have unlimited automatic support

Lest assume belgium agrees to let the Germans through (declares that German troops wll be allowed through before hostilities start)

Britain without a casus belli tells France it might not be able to join

France telling Russia it can't help if the Russians could be seen as agressor (Mobilizing)

Germany don't giving a blanco cheque - Austrian demands more moderate

Serbia not willing to give in triggers an Austrian DOW which is seen justified by the Entente (need a stoopid Serbian gvmt)

all of it or part of it...

A-H takes its time...

...for about five minutes and then spontaneously pounds Serbia into a pulp.

BooNZ said:

A-H takes its time...

...for about five minutes and then spontaneously pounds Serbia into a pulp.

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This. Your best bet for containing the July Crisis is to have Austria-Hungary go for Serbia almost immediately after the assassination. IOTL the delay enabled public sympathy for A-H to dissipate as the Entente governments rallied support for Serbia. However, the problem with this is that it comes in the middle of the Austro-Hungarian army's harvest leave. This was why they decided to wait IOTL. My suggestion would be for Austria-Hungary to declare war in the immediate aftermath of the assassination but wait for the harvest leave to expire before going on the offensive. They can take a defensive position on the Serbian border until they have all of their troops mobilized.

Emperor-of-New-Zealand said:

Any takers?

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I am currently working of that very idea.

Richter von Manthofen said:

Britain without a casus belli tells France it might not be able to join

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Britain wanted to join the war to keep the balance, they used whatever casus belli they could

Gurroruo said:

Britain wanted to join the war to keep the balance, they used whatever casus belli they could

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I have heard that time over time - and in the base its true, but without Belgium and an immediare casus belli a delay could mean Britain waits too long and a war is over when it decides to join even without a CB

Richter von Manthofen said:

I have heard that time over time - and in the base its true, but without Belgium and an immediare casus belli a delay could mean Britain waits too long and a war is over when it decides to join even without a CB

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Any war on the western front will last long enough for the British to find a casus belli

The trick is making this an eastern war

Captain Jack said:

This. Your best bet for containing the July Crisis is to have Austria-Hungary go for Serbia almost immediately after the assassination. IOTL the delay enabled public sympathy for A-H to dissipate as the Entente governments rallied support for Serbia. However, the problem with this is that it comes in the middle of the Austro-Hungarian army's harvest leave. This was why they decided to wait IOTL. My suggestion would be for Austria-Hungary to declare war in the immediate aftermath of the assassination but wait for the harvest leave to expire before going on the offensive. They can take a defensive position on the Serbian border until they have all of their troops mobilized.

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Now that's interesting. So, if the Austro-Hungarians opted to wait it out and go on the defensive, would the Serbians press an attack? Or would they try and negotiate regardless of the state of war? What's stopping sympathy from dissipating while the harvest goes on, regardless of the declaration of war?

Cook said:

I am currently working of that very idea.

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I look forward to seeing it!

Gurroruo said:

Britain wanted to join the war to keep the balance, they used whatever casus belli they could

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I've toyed with the idea that the Belgians agree to allow the Germans safe passage through their countryside, and as a result the French go on the offensive and occupy Belgium instead. This does two things - it removes Britain's casus belli and it sets her at odds with France. She won't declare war either way as a result. I think it's the best bet for keeping Britain neutral.

But, that's not what this topic is about.

What was the immediate Ottoman Empire reaction to the Austro-Hungarian declaration of war? Turkey's involvement in WWI is often overlooked in discussion, despite their interests in the Balkans. The more I think about it, the more I worry that there are just too many factors coming into play. Would Austria be able to coerce Bulgaria into joining the war? Would they need to?

Also, what's stopping the Germans and Russians?

Emperor-of-New-Zealand said:

I've toyed with the idea that the Belgians agree to allow the Germans safe passage through their countryside, and as a result the French go on the offensive and occupy Belgium instead. This does two things - it removes Britain's casus belli and it sets her at odds with France. She won't declare war either way as a result. I think it's the best bet for keeping Britain neutral.

But, that's not what this topic is about.

What was the immediate Ottoman Empire reaction to the Austro-Hungarian declaration of war? Turkey's involvement in WWI is often overlooked in discussion, despite their interests in the Balkans. The more I think about it, the more I worry that there are just too many factors coming into play. Would Austria be able to coerce Bulgaria into joining the war? Would they need to?

Also, what's stopping the Germans and Russians?

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Now that would work it makes the balance of power agrument confused

In a Third Balkan War, its Russia+Serbia Vs Austria. Bulgaria recently lost the Second Balkan War and will be A) Neutral or B) Austrian Camp. If Neutral they could see themselves invaded by the Ottomans in an attempt to gain more territory. If in the Austrian Camp Greece and Romania join the Russian camp and crush Bulgaria then hold the line against the OE, with Russian help they take the straits.

By "Would they need to?" I believe you mean is Austria capabale of winning. No. The Austrians aren't. They might beat the Serbians but the Russians will beat the Austrians.

Giver Germany something to distract them.

Richter von Manthofen said:

I have heard that time over time - and in the base its true, but without Belgium and an immediare casus belli a delay could mean Britain waits too long and a war is over when it decides to join even without a CB

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I think the British were not interested in Belgium's intependence but in keeping Germany out of Antwerp which is in close proximity to the British Chanel. So, even if the Belgians let the Germans pass, the British will intervene somehow.

BooNZ said:

A-H takes its time...

...for about five minutes and then spontaneously pounds Serbia into a pulp.

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Or tries to do same and gets a bloody nose.

Russia doesn't mobilise (as Serbia is doing ok by herself) and it all ends in a "Halt in Belgrade.

Richter von Manthofen said:

I have heard that time over time - and in the base its true, but without Belgium and an immediare casus belli a delay could mean Britain waits too long and a war is over when it decides to join even without a CB

Click to expand...

I think the British were not interested in Belgium's intependence but in keeping Germany out of Antwerp which is in close proximity to the British Chanel. So, even if the Belgians let the Germans pass, the British will intervene somehow.

Emperor-of-New-Zealand said:

Now that's interesting. So, if the Austro-Hungarians opted to wait it out and go on the defensive, would the Serbians press an attack? Or would they try and negotiate regardless of the state of war? What's stopping sympathy from dissipating while the harvest goes on, regardless of the declaration of war?

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Serbia would definitely go on the offensive. As time passes Austria-Hungary's forces will only grow in superiority over Serbia. Serbia's best option is to go on the attack while Austria-Hungary is waiting for the harvest leave to expire and seize territory to force Austria-Hungary into negotiations and obtain a better hand in said negotiations.

Sympathy for Austria-Hungary will dissipate as time goes on. However, the goal is to exploit the perception of the attack being a "knee-jerk" reaction to the assassination in the days and weeks following it. If Austria-Hungary can achieve a free hand against Serbia they won't need to worry about foreign public opinion. The Austro-Hungarians can crush Serbia if they don't have to worry about fighting on other fronts since they'll be able to deploy their entire army against her. In my opinion that means they can ignore any gains Serbia makes before Austria-Hungary begins her offensive.

Though the campaign would be far from easy. The Serbian army really did fight superbly IOTL against the Austrian invasion even pushing them back and invading Hungary itself. They'd fight just as well ITTL but will be defeated eventually by the sheer weight of Austro-Hungarian forces.

What was the immediate Ottoman Empire reaction to the Austro-Hungarian declaration of war? Turkey's involvement in WWI is often overlooked in discussion, despite their interests in the Balkans. The more I think about it, the more I worry that there are just too many factors coming into play. Would Austria be able to coerce Bulgaria into joining the war? Would they need to?

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If the war is restricted to Austria-Serbia the Ottomans won't have much of an impact at all. As for Bulgaria, I think Austria would be able to get them involved once it became clear the war wouldn't escalate out of the Balkans. It's a chance to take back their losses from the Second Balkan War and maybe even take the rest of Macedonia. Together Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria will be able to crush Serbia relatively quickly. Austria-Hungary could do it on her own but If Bulgaria gets involved the Ottoman position becomes more important as they'll be worried their next on Bulgaria's hit list.

Emperor-of-New-Zealand said:

I look forward to seeing it!

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The background reading is proving time consuming, so it will be some time before I present anything.

BooNZ said:

A-H takes its time...

...for about five minutes and then spontaneously pounds Serbia into a pulp.

Click to expand...

Surely without any proof or anything it'll just make it easier for Russia to say that Serbia was unjustly being bullied? And in any case, judging by OTL performance A-H might not actually be able to crush Serbia. (and in the scenario A-H wouldn't be able to completely deploy its army against Serbia anyway because of anticipated Russian reaction).

Think the real immediate issue (not counting the German blank check) is the Russian mobilization. Of course there were real pressures on Nicholas II to mobilize in support of Serbia but ultimately the decision was his and while it might have gotten him assassinated, it couldn't have been worse than what happened in OTL 1918. Finding a reason for him not to mobilize is a bit of an issue of course; maybe a few words from Rasputin or something.

profxyz said:

Surely without any proof or anything it'll just make it easier for Russia to say that Serbia was unjustly being bullied?

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The French and Russian PR machines would be selling the Serbian victim story irrespective of the evidence available. An immediate attack would ensure that residual sympathy for A-H would not be eroded by the same.

profxyz said:

And in any case, judging by OTL performance A-H might not actually be able to crush Serbia. (and in the scenario A-H wouldn't be able to completely deploy its army against Serbia anyway because of anticipated Russian reaction).

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A-H were hopeless, but OTL the forces A-H applied to the Serbian front scarcely exceeded those of Serbia. It would not be pretty, but even an incompetent A-H military should be able to overwhelm Serbia if sufficient force is applied - this could be achieved with only a partial A-H mobilisation.

With international sympathy for A-H lingering, a Russian mobilisation has a greater chance of being at least delayed.

profxyz said:

Think the real immediate issue (not counting the German blank check) is the Russian mobilization. Of course there were real pressures on Nicholas II to mobilize in support of Serbia but ultimately the decision was his and while it might have gotten him assassinated, it couldn't have been worse than what happened in OTL 1918. Finding a reason for him not to mobilize is a bit of an issue of course; maybe a few words from Rasputin or something.

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An immediate attack dispenses with the posturing, since no one would expect Serbia to last long against the might of A-H. Instead of rushing to mobilise to save Serbia, the posturing might instead focus on ensuring the peace is more manageable.

The easiest is for Russia and Austria to reach an agreement based on compensation- Austria gets a free hand in Serbia and Russia gets a free hand in say Bulgaria.

The immediate strike might work but probably won't. Everyone is more interested in the balance of power than the merits of the case and anyway that Serbia is destroyed is likely to lead to intervention unless that destruction doesn't destroy the balance of power.

Compensation is how the powers had always dealt with these things before

Captain Jack said:

If the war is restricted to Austria-Serbia the Ottomans won't have much of an impact at all. As for Bulgaria, I think Austria would be able to get them involved once it became clear the war wouldn't escalate out of the Balkans. It's a chance to take back their losses from the Second Balkan War and maybe even take the rest of Macedonia. Together Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria will be able to crush Serbia relatively quickly. Austria-Hungary could do it on her own but If Bulgaria gets involved the Ottoman position becomes more important as they'll be worried their next on Bulgaria's hit list.

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Not just the Turks but the Romanians and the Greeks have shown they don't like the idea of an expanded Bulgaria. I think that once Bulgaria gets involved, you are at general Balkan war at least. I don't see how you can buy the Romanians off either- they've already taken what they want from Bulgaria

The problem also is that Austria wants to prevent a large Slavic state on the Balkans. TAking Serbia down a notch only to the end that Bulgaria gets stronger is a lose lose situation for Austria.