Highest possible post-Famine Irish population?

Ditzy Vixen (RossN) · Apr 16, 2014

With a POD of 1851 (the first census taken after the Great Famine) what is the highest plausible population of Ireland in 2014 and how would it reach that level?

This graph shows the historical fall (and eventually growth) of the population in the modern day territory of the Republic:

And for what is now Northern Ireland:

Escape Zeppelin · Apr 16, 2014

Well England's population increased by 400% from 1840 to 2011 so I think a similar increase in Ireland is very reasonable. A jump up to 30 million would be likely with a minor POD in which Ireland is slightly better governed, the Famine is avoided, and less emigration. If England decides that Ireland is an important part of the UK rather than an unruly province and provides the infrastructure and laws to go along with that 30 million seems easy.

If you want to get crazy the entire Irish diaspora measures 100 million. It'd be crowded but with a major POD probably pre1500 you might make Ireland successful enough to keep them all at home.

KorgusCyborgus · Apr 16, 2014

100 million people would be 3068 people per square mile.
The only countries with that kind of population density are city-states and tiny islands.

Ditzy Vixen (RossN) · Apr 16, 2014

Yeah that's probably far too high.

Currently the Republic of Ireland has 65 people per per km2. That isn't the absolute lowest in Europe - the Scandinavian and Baltic states are even lower but it is very low for Europe as a whole.

Northern Ireland in contrast has 130 people per km2

So increasing the population density of the republic to match that would give us a little over 9 million for the Republic and 11 million for the entire island.

Urcea · Apr 16, 2014

If you go crazy with this and want to go to 100,000,000, you begin discussion about a major major geopolitical shift, and it's likely most of those folks wouldn't stay in Ireland.

You'd start seeing weird things happen if you started messing with history like that. Irish colonies in Britain, for one.

sparky42 · Apr 16, 2014

Different economic plans rom the foundation of the state may have arrested/diminished the fall in population during the post Anglo Irish treaty years. Most of the stagnation and emigration are tied into the bad periods of the economy, it's not surprising that the population grew by a million in the best economic period that we had.

At most I'd go with the Irish governments definition of expats which only adds 3 million or so.

Ditzy Vixen (RossN) · Apr 16, 2014

The other aspect besides emigration is that Ireland hactually had an abnormally low fertility rate for the first half of the 20th century (by contemporary standards.)

It seems counter intuitive but until the 60s Irish people either had lots of children... or never married and had no children because the available partners there age had emigrated. I can't find the statistics but I remember reading that Irish emigration was disproportionately female.

sparky42 · Apr 16, 2014

RossN said:
The other aspect besides emigration is that Ireland hactually had an abnormally low fertility rate for the first half of the 20th century (by contemporary standards.)

It seems counter intuitive but until the 60s Irish people either had lots of children... or never married and had no children because the available partners there age had emigrated. I can't find the statistics but I remember reading that Irish emigration was disproportionately female.

When you have all the upheavals both politically and economically during that time it's not surprising that the birthdate was low. 200K out of the country for WW1 with 60K killed, then the violence and destruction of the two wars, then the crash and then the economic war and then WW2. Not ideal situations for raising families. The rural isolation outside of the major urban areas wouldn't have helped either.

Ditzy Vixen (RossN) · Apr 16, 2014

sparky42 said:
When you have all the upheavals both politically and economically during that time it's not surprising that the birthdate was low. 200K out of the country for WW1 with 60K killed, then the violence and destruction of the two wars, then the crash and then the economic war and then WW2. Not ideal situations for raising families. The rural isolation outside of the major urban areas wouldn't have helped either.

Hmm, I'm not sure I'd agree. Spain, a poor largely rural dictatorship with political unrest throughout the Twenties had a much higher fertility rate than the politically stable Irish Free State of the late Cosgrave years. Even Germany, a country which suffered far more than Ireland in the First World War and had political strife and economic castrophe added 5 million to her population between 1919 and 1933.

The only comparable fertility rate in Europe was France which had suffered stangnant population growth for decades.

Which is not to say the wars didn't have an impact but it seems more likely the disastorous rate of emigration (which of course preceeded 1914) was the problem.

sparky42 · Apr 16, 2014

RossN said:
Hmm, I'm not sure I'd agree. Spain, a poor largely rural dictatorship with political unrest throughout the Twenties had a much higher fertility rate than the politically stable Irish Free State of the late Cosgrave years. Even Germany, a country which suffered far more than Ireland in the First World War and had political strife and economic castrophe added 5 million to her population between 1919 and 1933.

The only comparable fertility rate in Europe was France which had suffered stangnant population growth for decades.

Which is not to say the wars didn't have an impact but it seems more likely the disastorous rate of emigration (which of course preceeded 1914) was the problem.

But what is the underlying cause of that emigration? Lack of employment/opportunities would be a core component of driving the problem of emigration, improve the opportunities in Ireland and the population will increase. The growth of the last 20 years is a clear demonstration of that.

Ditzy Vixen (RossN) · Apr 16, 2014

sparky42 said:
But what is the underlying cause of that emigration? Lack of employment/opportunities would be a core component of driving the problem of emigration, improve the opportunities in Ireland and the population will increase. The growth of the last 20 years is a clear demonstration of that.

Of course, I was just pointing out that at worst the wars increased an underlying problem rather than anything else.

What is quite frightening is that the 1901 - 1911 period, which was considered a pretty prosperous, stable period - the period of mass land reform saw continous decline in the population. That does make me wonder if mass emigration had become not entirely economic but had become an ingrained response - that people left as much because they were raised with the expectation they would leave as an actual need to leave.

Basically I think any attempt to stop the decline would need to break the toxic cultural and sociological conditiong to emigrate.

sparky42 · Apr 16, 2014

RossN said:
Of course, I was just pointing out that at worst the wars increased an underlying problem rather than anything else.

What is quite frightening is that the 1901 - 1911 period, which was considered a pretty prosperous, stable period - the period of mass land reform saw continous decline in the population. That does make me wonder if mass emigration had become not entirely economic but had become an ingrained response - that people left as much because they were raised with the expectation they would leave as an actual need to leave.

Basically I think any attempt to stop the decline would need to break the toxic cultural and sociological conditiong to emigrate.

I think you might actual need to reduce the family sizes at that period as well, there was a show on Gay Byrne this week his grandfather worked for one of the landed lords as a coach driver and had 6 sons. Even for "good" position like that the sons had to leave as there was no way to support them all on the estate.