Evolution of China without 1937 Japanese invasion

Assuming that say the Japanese government is able to head off the IJA's overthrow of the civilian government, allowing them to assert themselves against the military, how would China evolve without a Japanese invasion and brutal war? I'm assuming that the KMT would crush Mao eventually and Stalin would continue backing Chiang (he was not supportive of the ChiComs for quite a while apparently), so the social situation is pretty well in hand by the early 1940s. Let's assume too that without the Sino-Japanese war the German aid to and trade with China continues until Barbarossa, but China does not join with the Axis. After the European war breaks out the German mission to China is pretty much stuck there and continues its mission, but without support from Germany once the war with the Soviets breaks out (the last supply route to China from Germany after the war with Britain starts). So China is developing with European assistance, warily watching Japan in Manchuria. Let's also assume there is no Pacific war during this version of WW2.

How does its future play out?

British policy towards China was extremely wary, not to say hostile, during the interwar. Continued Soviet support rather than a turn to the west is rather likely, even in the cold war thereafter. However if Chiang Kai-shek feels strong enough, and is agitated enough by Soviet intrusion in Sinkiang one might see a sudden turn from say 1940 and forward. If not, it is possible that Soviet and China make a larger and larger joint effort to turn Manchuria to China after the war leading to a very strange Korea-ish conflict.

kung Zog said:

British policy towards China was extremely wary, not to say hostile, during the interwar. Continued Soviet support rather than a turn to the west is rather likely, even in the cold war thereafter. However if Chiang Kai-shek feels strong enough, and is agitated enough by Soviet intrusion in Sinkiang one might see a sudden turn from say 1940 and forward. If not, it is possible that Soviet and China make a larger and larger joint effort to turn Manchuria to China after the war leading to a very strange Korea-ish conflict.

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Under what circumstances could we see a Japanese-Soviet war? IOTL there were the border clashes that didn't turn into anything more due to the war in China, but without that war could we see Japan gear up for a bigger battle with Stalin? Perhaps a second Russo-Japanese war?

wiking said:

Under what circumstances could we see a Japanese-Soviet war? IOTL there were the border clashes that didn't turn into anything more due to the war in China, but without that war could we see Japan gear up for a bigger battle with Stalin? Perhaps a second Russo-Japanese war?

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doubt it Khalkin gol basically sent the message to Japan that any fight with the soviets was going to end badly

wiking said:

Under what circumstances could we see a Japanese-Soviet war? IOTL there were the border clashes that didn't turn into anything more due to the war in China, but without that war could we see Japan gear up for a bigger battle with Stalin? Perhaps a second Russo-Japanese war?

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If the Japanese militarists reeled in, those border clashes get butterflied away. They were as much a product of the IJA's crazy militarism as the war with China was.
And the war in China wasn't the only reason those border clashes didn't escalate, a much more important factor was the utter thrashing the Japanese suffered at the hands of the Red Army. The Japanese took one main lesson away from Khalkin Ghol: don't fuck with the USSR.

Fredrick II Barbarossa said:

doubt it Khalkin gol basically sent the message to Japan that any fight with the soviets was going to end badly

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That's correct. Any fight which on one side involves the maybe best military mind it has to offer (Zhukov) uninvolved in any other major conflict at the time against cancer boy (Michitarō Komatsubara) on the other side whose country was busy fighting a major war in China.

What has any of that to do though with the scenario the OP posted though?

wiking said:

I'm assuming that the KMT would crush Mao eventually and Stalin would continue backing Chiang (he was not supportive of the ChiComs for quite a while apparently), so the social situation is pretty well in hand by the early 1940s.

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Crush the Kansu Soviet and Mao? Possibly, perhaps even likely.

But I would not call the social situation pretty well in hand then. Chiang and the KMT will still face rival warlords - of which Mao was only the one most adept and with the most compelling alternate social model. And if one needs to call communism a "compelling alternate social model" you pretty much can be sure the current social model must be pretty appaling.

The KMT regime ran a mostly corrupt and slightly reformist system. The warlords an entirely corrupt and reactionary system. Both had in common to place personal power base before China as a "nation". Left to themselves, I do trust them to keep their country down with facionalism and the inability to cooperate on a national scale at that time. There was just no all-encompassing binding "all China" element around in China at that time. A return to an emperor had to happen - which in OTL was achieved by Mao (just in the trappings of socialism instead of confucianism).

So what I predict for China left to its own devices is the same thing happening there time and again: Enough peasants and farmers get desperate enough to rise up and overthrow the current rulers. Just up to which level any particular unrest can keep its core together (local, provincial, country) depends and varies. But my guess is most these uprising will again lean left and be of the Socialist / Communist kind, Mao being around or not. Think of the de-colonization era like in South East Asia / Africa. Peasant movements looking for a sponsor and the Soviet Union being in the best position to exploit that. With the US / UK being in favour of the ruling regimes. Vietnam sounds familiar?

So in that sense: China may become a hotspot of the cold war - if not the hotspot. With various warlords cashing in favours left and right to keep their respective power bases afloat. How much a role the KMT will play in this is anyone's guess. Could prosper, could split, could become irrelevant, could end up on top. My guess would be: Could prosper a while but will eventually split.

ObssesedNuker said:

And the war in China wasn't the only reason those border clashes didn't escalate, a much more important factor was the utter thrashing the Japanese suffered at the hands of the Red Army. The Japanese took one main lesson away from Khalkin Ghol: don't fuck with the USSR.

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One of the most charismatic and influential Japanese militarists was Colonel Masanobu Tsuji. (Also one of the nastiest - complicit in numerous war crimes.) He was involved in the Khalkin-Gol incursion. From then on, he was firmly opposed to any trying-on with the USSR. He was present at many of the War Councils of 1941, and when anyone suggested "going north", would speak eloquently of Soviet firepower, as he had seen in person.

ok so we've established no second russo-japanese war.
How does China evolve?

Would it continue on into Warlordism or would it unite and if so by whom?
Some say the Japanese won the war for Mao but is that true?

If the republic wins the war can they remain united?
Would the Soviets setup a "Taiwan" in Manchuria?

[/questions to end derailment]

Yeah, would Chiang then preside over a fascist-lite version of the PRC?

PoeFacedKilla said:

ok so we've established no second russo-japanese war.
How does China evolve?

Would it continue on into Warlordism or would it unite and if so by whom?
Some say the Japanese won the war for Mao but is that true?

If the republic wins the war can they remain united?
Would the Soviets setup a "Taiwan" in Manchuria?

[/questions to end derailment]

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wiking said:

Yeah, would Chiang then preside over a fascist-lite version of the PRC?

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Landless warlords like Zhang Xueliang and Feng Yuxiang are going to be sidelined fast, while the warlords in the periphery (Shanxi, Guangxi, Yunnan, Gansu) are probably going to last longer, as those places were the backwater part of the country and are no match to lucrative provinces like Hebei, Sichuan, Guangdong and Lower Yangtze, all of which are firmly under Chiang's control.

Socially, Taiwan-style land reform will take place, namely converting large holdings into stocks of state-owned companies and bonds at gun point, both appeasing the peasants and removing a layer of control. Election would likely be held at county-level and below, not enough to undermine the central authority, but enough to undermine provincial warlords. Parliament and provincial councils may be elected, but will be no more than Putin's Duma. Peaceful, unarmed dissidents will likely be tolerated, seeing how Chiang didn't purge Wang Jingwei despite being rival for decades and the latter had not a soldier at his disposal, and the expulsion only came when he tried to negotiate a peace with Japan on his own accords.

In Xinjiang, even if an ambitious man like Sheng Shicai is appointed, Chiang will have his hands free to deal with any out-of-line behavior so it's going to be more akin to a central controlled province than a warlord domain. A few divisions will "restore order" in Tibet but the young Dalai Lama will be kept as a puppet preaching peace and order. Local social structures probably won't be touched until a grassroot social reform movement forms, then the KMT will grant their benevolence to the Tibetan people and further penetrate Tibet by removing local barons.

Merchants and entrepreneurs will be supported by the state, as they can generate large taxes without threatening the KMT authority. Inequality may surface after a few decades, but in the short term, peace and prosperity will cover it up like the PRC now.

Unless there's a major fuckup when undermining Zhang and Feng that results in a second round of civil war, China will very likely be better than IOTL all the way to Chiang's death in the '70s

After that, it's quite unpredictable. Chiang Ching-kuo was a Trotskyist in his youth IOTL, but became a generic right-wing despot when he took over in 1975. But if life hadn't denied his chance to act left-wing, and that the KMT is no more pro-capitalism than pro-Chiang dynasty at his inheritance, China might take a great turn left, but not too close with Stalinist USSR. In any case, by this time, the warlords will have been dead or retired (maybe expect the Ma dynasty, but they aren't much of a threat on their own and they held remote backwater places anyway), so civil war is no longer a problem, but my guess on further socioeconomic developement are likely to be no more than ass-pulls.

There are several big changes that will happen without a Japanese invasion.

1) Chiang is able to consolidate control over some of the provinces the Central government has just taken over. They took control of Guangdong just in 1936. The Central government had established a presence in Sichuan in 1935 and took control during the Sino-Japanese War when the government moved to Cungking and its warlord Liu Xiang died in 1938.

2) China will be completing many of its three and five year development plans that were interrupted during the war. Several large munitions and weapons factories will be completed in central China to supply millions of rifles and thousands of artillery pieces. Various steel, copper, electronics, and optical works will be completed. Railroads will be finished that link up most of the areas controlled by the central government. In short, by 1939 the central government will be much better placed to supply its own army with modern weapons.

3) China will have completed several key military projects. The German trained divisions will reach 30 and later 60 divisions. Claire Chennault will complete his review of the Chinese air force and likely be retained to implement reforms in 1937 in peacetime. China will begin modernizing its brown and green water navy. Coastal defenses and fortifications will be completed.

4) The KMT intended to end its political tutelage in autumn 1937 by establishing new constitution and holding elections. The elections won't really be democratic, but it will have enhanced the credibility of the KMT government and formalized the power and authority of Chiang. This was suspended because of the Japanese invasion (and had been already delayed by one year because the government wasn't ready to do this in 1936 when it was originally planned).

By 1939, the Chinese armed forces will have improved considerably; the economy will be more developed and expanded the government's tax base, and it will be more politically stable.

The Sino-Japanese War basically saved the Chinese Communists. If the war had not happened, Chiang would eventually have estbalished some kind of oversight over the CCP because of the United Front. Things were proceeding slowly in getting Nationalist Army supervision of the 8th Route Army, but it can only be delayed so long if there is no war. In addition, there was a ground swell of patriotic sentiment within the CPP to cooperate more with the KMT. Eventually the Nationalists will exercise some sort of supervision over the CCP, and it is even possible Mao will lose his role as paramount leader as someone like Wang Ming will take over to implement the pro-Chiang Comintern policy.

Chiang will seek ways to coopt and take over the regional warlords with as little bloodshed as possible. Since his tax base will increase and his army will become more formidable fairly soon, I think a lot of the warlords will accept Chiang's control, be removed from power, and be given a sinecure. Most simply can't last much longer.

The Gansu Clique are effectively allies of Chiang already. Their province is poor and not especially valuable. They'll continue to cooperate with Chiang.

The Guangxi Clique had strong ties to the KMT, and its leaders were very anti-Japanese and effectively became part of the central government during the war. I think they'll make some kind of deal with Chiang by the early 1940s to preserve some kind of power while opening up their territory to tax collection.

Long Yun in Yunnan will be able to hold out fairly long because of Yunnan's isolation and mountainous terrain. As more roads and railways are built to link Yunnan with the rest of China, his position will become more precarious. He'll probably be able to keep power until the mid to late 1940s.

The warlords in the Five Northern Provinces are effectively independent because of Japanese pressure to keep that area free from Chiang. However, many are patriotic Chinese even if political rivals to Chiang, and their power will become relatively weaker. They also control provinces that are populous and wealthy. I think once Chiang has his 30-60 German trained divisions, he'll begin making moves here to reassert control. First will be Han Fuqu in Shandong. Then Yan Xishan in Shaanxi. Last will be Hebei which has Peiping and Tianjin which may create a flash point with Japan. But if war breaks out in 1940-1942, China will be much better prepared.

Sheng Shicai in Xinjiang will be difficult because of Soviet support. Xinjiang was totally autonomous in 1937 and becoming a Soviet puppet. Stalin intended an eventual Mongolia scenario to split it off from China. However, during the war Sheng Shicai worked more closely with the KMT, and during the German invasion of the Soviet Union was able to kick out the Red Army and become truly independent. When war fortunes changed, Sheng was left without support and Chiang arranged his ousting. Whether China is able to secure Xinjiang ultimately depends if the Nazis still invade the Soviet Union, and how Sheng Shicai reacts in the face of a growing central government.

Tibet will be independent. Either Tibet will cut a deal with Chiang and acknowledge Chinese suzerainty and control of international relations in return from some sovereignty, or Chiang will outright invade Tibet when the British are too occupied in WWII.

As Chiang continues to grows the central government's and increase the effectiveness of his armed forces, there will be pressure to regain control of Manchuria. Popular pressure will not allow him to do nothing. I expect war will happen by the mid 1940s unless Japan is able to work out a deal with Chiang. Hard to see what deal would be acceptable to both sides.

China won't be fascist-light. Chiang admired the early Fascists in the same way Churchill and many other democratic Europeans and Americans did. Chiang is not a democrat, but he is committed to Sun Yat-sen's principles. We can expect a kind of paternal Confucian authoritarianism in the guise of a democratic republic. A more accurate analogy is probably not with the fascists, but with the Sanacja regime in Poland or Hungary and Romania between the wars which had elements of both democracy and authoritarianism (not fascism).