AHC: more decisive Russo-Japanese War

mcdo · Sep 21, 2014

In recent weeks, there have been a handful of threads on this forum discussing possible Russian victories in the Russo-Japanese War. I am curious about the opposite possibilty: clear and decisive Japanese victories on land. In OTL, Japanede armies were able to force Russian troops back, but the engagements were often very costly, and the Russian forces often retreated in good order. What I am looking for, then, is an ATL in which in at least one battle, and preferably more, the Russian forces suffer disproportionate casualties and are forced back in disarry. In short, for the Russian army to suffer such at rout that it is absolutely clear they are the ones who must seek peace. (Bonus points if the war ends a bit sooner, so that Japanese financial constraints are better, though convincing victories will itself help there.)

What PoDs can make the IJA more compent and effective, or the Russian army less, or both? Smaller PoDs (e.g. no sudden development of weapons or tactics decades early) are preferred, but do what you must to accomplish the goal. Do try to keep the PoD close in time, however.

I lookforward to hearing people's thoughts.

Cryhavoc101 · Sep 21, 2014

mcdo said:
In recent weeks, there have been a handful of threads on this forum discussing possible Russian victories in the Russo-Japanese War. I am curious about the opposite possibilty: clear and decisive Japanese victories on land. In OTL, Japanede armies were able to force Russian troops back, but the engagements were often very costly, and the Russian forces often retreated in good order. What I am looking for, then, is an ATL in which in at least one battle, and preferably more, the Russian forces suffer disproportionate casualties and are forced back in disarry. In short, for the Russian army to suffer such at rout that it is absolutely clear they are the ones who must seek peace. (Bonus points if the war ends a bit sooner, so that Japanese financial constraints are better, though convincing victories will itself help there.)

What PoDs can make the IJA more compent and effective, or the Russian army less, or both? Smaller PoDs (e.g. no sudden development of weapons or tactics decades early) are preferred, but do what you must to accomplish the goal. Do try to keep the PoD close in time, however.

I lookforward to hearing people's thoughts.

Not that familier with the war but I do know that both sides shown stunning levels of incompetence that made the British efforts in the Crimean war look brilliant - IIRC half of the Japanese casualties where due to 'White death' - the only food they provided to the soldiers was white rice and this resulted in thousand of them getting ill and dying over time.

So here is a very simple POD - provide those troops with better rations!

Dathi THorfinnsson · Sep 21, 2014

Also. The TransSiberian railway was only just recently completed, which massively improved Russian logistics (as minimal is the RR was, it was a heck of a lot better than nothing).

If the RR weren't finished by the time the war started, or if major portions collapsed (not sure why that would be - but some combination of corruption and political pressure for speed could result in the final bits being shoddy enough that the RR washes out in a dozen places, or the steel rails break in the Siberian winter or something).

In that case, the Japanese would have a MUCH easier time of it.

Green Painting · Sep 21, 2014

Correct me if I'm wrong.

But was the Siege of Port Arthur really necessary? If the objective was the Russian Pacific Fleet, then the IJN could have simply blockaded the Port with their fleet or with their Naval Mines, immobilizing the Russian fleet. Avoiding that siege would save the Japanese precious manpower and time.

Even if the siege was inevitable, there are several ways to make it less devastating for the offenders. Machine guns and Krupp siege guns should have been committed early,

Cryhavoc101 said:
IIRC half of the Japanese casualties where due to 'White death' - the only food they provided to the soldiers was white rice and this resulted in thousand of them getting ill and dying over time.
So here is a very simple POD - provide those troops with better rations!

With the possible exception of early Japanese Conquest of Southeast Asia, lacking in provisions in terms of both food and equipment was a defining feature in all of Japan's wars.

Gannt the chartist · Sep 22, 2014

Well there was not supposed to be a siege of Port Arthur.

The Japanese idea was to take the city on the bounce and the Russian idea was to move the fleet to Vladivostok ( turned back in the Battle of the Yellow Sea). Its only after the failure of the initial assault in late August that things become a siege.

You cant really ignore the battlefleet. A single raider could do immense damage to the IJA supply lines and a sortie combined with the Baltic fleet would give the Russians serious superiority, the far eastern fleet was good but outnumbered.

And by the time the siege begins Kuropatkin had avoided defeat, and the Japanese probably needed to resupply and reinforce before anything.

LordKalvert · Sep 24, 2014

The simplest would be to have Japan strike shortly after the conclusion of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance in 1902. This is the point that Japan is the strongest- without Britain keeping France neutral, war is impossible after 1904 it again becomes impossible as the Russians would have completed the trans-Siberian (the Trans-Baikal loop is finished in October 1904) and the Borodino class battleships.

Without the resupply, the Russians are going to get worn down pretty fast

Once the fighting starts as OTL, it would be difficult to come up with a decisive Japanese victory on land. The Russians are playing not to lose while the railway brings the men and supplies in. They are very careful to ensure that their lines of retreat are never threatened

At sea, Japan could press the August battles and decisively defeat the Port Arthur squadron but that won't change the outcome much

FasterThanRaito · Sep 24, 2014

mcdo said:
In recent weeks, there have been a handful of threads on this forum discussing possible Russian victories in the Russo-Japanese War. I am curious about the opposite possibilty: clear and decisive Japanese victories on land. In OTL, Japanede armies were able to force Russian troops back, but the engagements were often very costly, and the Russian forces often retreated in good order. What I am looking for, then, is an ATL in which in at least one battle, and preferably more, the Russian forces suffer disproportionate casualties and are forced back in disarry. In short, for the Russian army to suffer such at rout that it is absolutely clear they are the ones who must seek peace. (Bonus points if the war ends a bit sooner, so that Japanese financial constraints are better, though convincing victories will itself help there.)

What PoDs can make the IJA more compent and effective, or the Russian army less, or both? Smaller PoDs (e.g. no sudden development of weapons or tactics decades early) are preferred, but do what you must to accomplish the goal. Do try to keep the PoD close in time, however.

I lookforward to hearing people's thoughts.

Part of the reason for the unimpressive peace treaty was because it was western powers doing the negotiating, such as the US. The westerners deliberately only gave the minimum terms necessary to the Japanese, which greatly infuriated them and ultimately led to suspicion against Europeans and increasingly militaristic path towards achieving their goals.

Change how the peace treaty is handled, and you change the proportion of battlefield performance v.s. treaty rewards

incidentally, this exact topic is the a major point in my TL

Driftless · Sep 24, 2014

Dathi THorfinnsson said:
Also. The TransSiberian railway was only just recently completed, which massively improved Russian logistics (as minimal is the RR was, it was a heck of a lot better than nothing).

If the RR weren't finished by the time the war started, or if major portions collapsed (not sure why that would be - but some combination of corruption and political pressure for speed could result in the final bits being shoddy enough that the RR washes out in a dozen places, or the steel rails break in the Siberian winter or something).

In that case, the Japanese would have a MUCH easier time of it.

The Japanese equivalent of George Rogers Clark style deep raid on the line? Blow up a bridge or five.