Scotland Votes Yes: First Forty-Eight Hours.

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to imagine a world in which the recent independence referendum held in Scotland was won by those who favored independence. The result is clear, decisive, and it is quite large enough a margin of victory to be effectively irrefutable. What happens in the next two days? Not just in London and Edinburgh, but worldwide.

Focus especially on No. 10 Downing Street and 6 Charlotte Square, the reactions of David Cameron and Alex Salmond, but also speculate on anything else which you think would happen in those first forty-eight hours if you believe it is worth mentioning here.

Could Cameron be the one resigning in this TL, instead of Salmond?

I actually dont think Cameron would resign-polls showed people didnt think he should anyway, but also i think there would have been some calculation that the Tories could turn the post Yes negotiations into a vote winner in the rUK.

Basically, the Tory position would now be "who do you trust to get the best deal for Britain? The Scottish run labour party or us?"

And that "best deal", would involve squeezing the Scots and not bending an inch.

On other areas, i acutally suspect there would be substantial unrest in Scotland-lets not forget that with a No vote, the Yes camp at least have the theoretical chance of getting another referenedum and a Yes vote in the future. They only have to win once.

The No camp have to win every time, and if they lose, they lose everything. If the result had been the other way around and had been No-45, Yes-55, then over %40 of the Scottish population would be left with absolutely nothing-for many, no hope. There would be riots.

RBS, Standard life etc, would announce their withdrawal within days, and quite possibly the UK govt would direct BAE to reverse its plans vis a vis the Clyde shipyards. Within a week Scotland would be wracked with anger and economic panic.

Emperor Julian said:

Could Cameron be the one resigning in this TL, instead of Salmond?

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Certainly Cameron would resign, he must !
Because he not preventer the brake up of Great Britain and worst the lost of scottish Oil fields.

The New of YES would be shockwave true finance world
Because allot British banks would withdrawal from Scotland, while the Bank of Scotland declare it ready for the Euro.
the British Pound sterling would devaluated on Money market because the lost of scottish Oil.

In the Media the Term "Little Britain" will pop up to label Britain after Scotland referendum.
what for most is logical for america media, but there BBC Comedy Show with same name…
It will be a ironic wordplay

a yes Sean Connery will fly from bahamas to Free Scotland and kiss the ground on Glasgow International airport

Long therm effect for "Little Britain"
Depending on Scottish oil and Energy import
while Wales and North Ireland demanding also a independence referendum
and England could step out of European union

Michel Van said:

Certainly Cameron would resign, he must !
Because he not preventer the brake up of Great Britain and worst the lost of scottish Oil fields.

The New of YES would be shockwave true finance world
Because allot British banks would withdrawal from Scotland, while the Bank of Scotland declare it ready for the Euro.
the British Pound sterling would devaluated on Money market because the lost of scottish Oil.

In the Media the Term "Little Britain" will pop up to label Britain after Scotland referendum.
what for most is logical for america media, but there BBC Comedy Show with same name…
It will be a ironic wordplay

a yes Sean Connery will fly from bahamas to Free Scotland and kiss the ground on Glasgow International airport

Long therm effect for "Little Britain"
Depending on Scottish oil and Energy import
while Wales and North Ireland demanding also a independence referendum
and England could step out of European union

Click to expand...

Im not sure you actually know the facts. The UK economy is not dependent on Scottish oil you know? And there is almost no one who believes the Euro was in Scottish interests.

Have you been paying any attention to the last 2 years of never ending debate?

The Shetlanders immediately call for a referendum on their own separation from Scotland, either to rejoin the UK (or at least to affiliate to it in some way, perhaps as a 'Crown Dependency' like the Isle of Man) or -- less probably -- as an independent nation in their own right. They really were talking seriously about this response in OTL. Whether the Orkneys would get involved as well, though, I'm not so sure.
And if the Shetlands do leave Scotland then they take a fair chunk of the oilfields with them...

Agree with above post plus expect some very hard negotiating over the boundary of international waters. Salmond will want to go due east from the Tweed, Cameron follow the angle of the border bringing a fair sized chunk of the gas fields and some oil fields into English waters.
It would be interesting to see how the SNP cope with the Shetlanders wanting to go their own way! They would try very hard to stop them.

libbrit said:

I actually dont think Cameron would resign-polls showed people didnt think he should anyway, but also i think there would have been some calculation that the Tories could turn the post Yes negotiations into a vote winner in the rUK.

Basically, the Tory position would now be "who do you trust to get the best deal for Britain? The Scottish run labour party or us?"

And that "best deal", would involve squeezing the Scots and not bending an inch.

On other areas, i acutally suspect there would be substantial unrest in Scotland-lets not forget that with a No vote, the Yes camp at least have the theoretical chance of getting another referenedum and a Yes vote in the future. They only have to win once.

The No camp have to win every time, and if they lose, they lose everything. If the result had been the other way around and had been No-45, Yes-55, then over %40 of the Scottish population would be left with absolutely nothing-for many, no hope. There would be riots.

RBS, Standard life etc, would announce their withdrawal within days, and quite possibly the UK govt would direct BAE to reverse its plans vis a vis the Clyde shipyards. Within a week Scotland would be wracked with anger and economic panic.

Click to expand...

Yours is a worst case scenario, but in this case I think it's entirely possible. Apart from the 45% who voted for the Union, you would also have all the Scots living in the rUK who would be far more likely to be pro-Union and who were effectivley disenfranchised. In particular you would have a large number of Scottish soldiers who had seen their country pulled out from under them with no chance of a voice.

The capital flight would be something to see, and HMS Queen Elizabeth would be the last major warship built in Scotland. A sad end to a fine tradition.

Sanderford said:

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to imagine a world in which the recent independence referendum held in Scotland was won by those who favored independence. The result is clear, decisive, and it is quite large enough a margin of victory to be effectively irrefutable. What happens in the next two days? Not just in London and Edinburgh, but worldwide.

Focus especially on No. 10 Downing Street and 6 Charlotte Square, the reactions of David Cameron and Alex Salmond, but also speculate on anything else which you think would happen in those first forty-eight hours if you believe it is worth mentioning here.

Click to expand...

Day One

Massive celebrations across Scotland. They are marred by some disturbances as No campaigners also come out on the streets and wave union flags. Some no campaigners are branded traitors and there are some injuries.

Cameron says that he is heartbroken that Scottish people have chosen to end the union but he respects their wishes. He ends with a message of reconciliation and asks people to focus on the things they have in common and to remember the great things the United Kingdom has done with Scotland etc.

He won't resign as the no campaign was mostly led by Labour anyway and there was little an English Conservative could have said or done to alter things.

Alex Salmond makes an emotional speech about a nations reborn and ready to take its place alongside the other great nations. He also tries to be conciliatory by saying that Scotland will still be a friend to the British people and that Scotland is for everyone etc.

Shares fall by around 10% on the London stock market and the pound falls against virtually all currencies.

Day Two

Sean Connery arrives at Prestwick Airport so that he can die in his free homeland.

The first banks and multinational corporations announce plans to relocate their head offices to England. Hotels in Scotalnd notice a spate of cancellations as many English tourists decide to holiday in Wales this year.

Some Scottish people in England report acts of local hostility and name calling.

Simreeve said:

The Shetlanders immediately call for a referendum on their own separation from Scotland, either to rejoin the UK (or at least to affiliate to it in some way, perhaps as a 'Crown Dependency' like the Isle of Man) or -- less probably -- as an independent nation in their own right. They really were talking seriously about this response in OTL. Whether the Orkneys would get involved as well, though, I'm not so sure.
And if the Shetlands do leave Scotland then they take a fair chunk of the oilfields with them...

Click to expand...

It would be interesting to see how far the SNP's 'right to choose our own destiny' would go if they did decide not to be part of Scotland.

Any chance for UK throwing temper tantrum like Serbia?

First forty-eight hours include lots and lots or drinking.

Devolved said:

Sean Connery arrives at Prestwick Airport so that he can die in his free homeland.

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"I will never set foot in my country until it becomes independent. "

See, this is a protest i will never understand.

Cameron would have to go. Boris Johnston would ensure the backbench Tories blamed Cameron for the break up and it happened on his watch. They major banks all announce they are moving their HQ's to London. No currency union is confirmed, Spain confirms they will block Scottish entry into the EU. The Shetlands announce plans for a referendum. So a bit of a stormy ride ahead, could Scotland come through? Of course but you a talking years of economic and political pain and the SNP getting the blame for it all at least North of the border.

oldironside said:

In particular you would have a large number of Scottish soldiers who had seen their country pulled out from under them with no chance of a voice.

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I think that if they were still registered as voters in Scottish constituencies then, wherever currently stationed, they'd have had the right to vote by post in this referendum.

Michel Van said:

a yes Sean Connery will fly from bahamas to Free Scotland and kiss the ground on Glasgow International airport

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And then he finds out that the independent Scotland would tax him at an even higher rate if he becomes resident there than the UK would have been doing if he was resident here before the referendum, and so he promptly goes back overseas instead of staying...

Simreeve said:

And then he finds out that the independent Scotland would tax him at an even higher rate if he becomes resident there than the UK would have been doing if he was resident here before the referendum, and so he promptly goes back overseas instead of staying...

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Where President Obama finally has the support to raise taxes on the wealthy come November (well probably not, but one can hope).

How about the events in the Pacific Quay? Here's it is:

• BBC Scotland will become the Scottish Broadcasting Service as the Scottish Parliament is preparing to draft a new Charter for the public broadcaster; the SBS will inherit the licence fee financing from its predecessor. In effect, there are significant changes in its programming, both radio and television.
  
• STV will remain the main commercial broadcaster of Scotland, although some in the press reported that the management wanted to replace its onscreen name with TV3 Scotland as part of their Master Plan for the next half-decade.
  
• Rumors circulated that Gaelic-language radio and television will be limited to north of the (Antonine) Wall as OfCom recommended to the legislature that a dedicated radio and television service in Scots/Lallans should be considered as "equally important"

What's the national anthem of Scotland, by the way?

ramones1986 said:

What's the national anthem of Scotland, by the way?

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This:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPaJhlIIYjM

Darth_Kiryan said:

First forty-eight hours include lots and lots or drinking.



"I will never set foot in my country until it becomes independent. "

See, this is a protest i will never understand.

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Love him as an actor, absolutely, totally hate him with a white hot fury as a human being. That he hates Bond makes the character all the more awesome.

Guys Cameron already said he won't resign