WI Yuan Shikai backs the Qing against 1911 revolutionaries?

WI Yuan tried to loyally do what he was brought out of retirement to do, crush the rebels who launched the Wuchang uprising and sympathetic risings in other southern provinces?

This means a civil war rather than a rapid 1911 revolution and endgame, presuming Yuan can keep the Beiyang army troops all loyal.

Will Yuan be able to crush the rebellious provinces, or will he sink with the Qing in perhaps a slower, more painful fight against the Chinese revolution that still inexorably ousts the Qing and defeats Yuan within a few years?

Is there an in-between option? My view is that it'll be a WWI style stalemate , thus why the KMT chose to bribe Yuan with presidency and "invite the wolf in", quoting a Chinese idiom, and also why Yuan accept the deal instead of just crush all rebels and force the court to relinquish all power to the PM i.e. himself, and effectively become emperor without opposition KMT around.

3) There would a long war of stalemate, but one side was eventually able to overcome the other.

4) There would be a long drawn-out war, which would start the warlord wars a few years earlier, butterflying away the little boom years China had during WWI, leaving the country in even worse position in future wars.

Yuan Shi Kai would crush the rebellion as at the first defeat the foreign powers and their money would flow to the Imperial Government as the force most likely to restore order which is all they really wanted.

Yuan would bask in his glory for a while till the Manchus grew tired of him and quitely strangled him in his sleep

LordKalvert said:

Yuan Shi Kai would crush the rebellion as at the first defeat the foreign powers and their money would flow to the Imperial Government as the force most likely to restore order which is all they really wanted.

Yuan would bask in his glory for a while till the Manchus grew tired of him and quitely strangled him in his sleep

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^Manchus were in no position to touch him, in fact, they were scared shitless by the revolution that they let Yuan form an all-Han cabinet as the PM.

Sharunaku said:

^Manchus were in no position to touch him, in fact, they were scared shitless by the revolution that they let Yuan form an all-Han cabinet as the PM.

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Quite true. That's why I said quitely. In Manchu China, assassination could always be arranged for the right price

Sharunaku said:

^Manchus were in no position to touch him, in fact, they were scared shitless by the revolution that they let Yuan form an all-Han cabinet as the PM.

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Almost all-Han. The Ministry for the Administration of Outlying Regions was still on Manchu hands.

LordKalvert said:

Quite true. That's why I said quitely. In Manchu China, assassination could always be arranged for the right price

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It could be used by Yuan and the Revolutionaries against the Manchus as well, they had more expertise in doing this.

The Ministry for the Administration of Outlying Regions was still on Manchu hands.

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I didn't know this was a thing. What was it's purview? Tibet, Mongolia, Xinjiang and Manchuria? Who occupied the position, and did they keep their job for any length of time into the Republican period?

- Yuan Shikai IOTL believed the Qing dynasty was done for and wanted to hijack the republican revolution for his own ends.
- The OP envisions him putting his money on the Qing instead.
- IMO, anti-Qing sentiment was widespread but not severe to the point that the empire was actively collapsing. The revolutionaries who would attempt to lead the republican government, after all, were a small group of southern Chinese expats who jumped on a very spontaneous and ill-organized movement.
- Since the Qing wasn't actually in chaos in 1911, it's not implausible for Yuan Shikai to defeat the revolutionaries and maintain the Qing order for a few years.


- The rebellion would probably fail.
- Yuan Shikai would be even more powerful after this.
- Constitutional reforms would go on for a longer time, which is a good thing since it gets officials more used to following rules (at least on paper).
- More simmering regional unrest in the south, probably a bad thing but bound to happen anyway, at least if you believe that warlords are a probable outcome by 1910.
- Yuan probably doesn't try to set up his own dynasty, which is certainly a good thing.
- Major revolts are probably staved off for some time, but a combination of fear and lack of real power vis-a-vis Yuan Shikai are going to have the Manchus making more and more concessions to the Han.
- Yuan probably dies before 1920 (IOTL he died in 1916).
- The Beiyang army probably takes a hit with Yuan's passing, but in a different or less divisive manner as IOTL due to butterflies caused by the lack of a bogus dynasty to ruin its cohesion.
- If a strong leader is able to take the reins from Yuan after his death, we may either see
-- a stable military dictatorship with the Manchus left as a powerless figurehead
-- a military dictatorship with some republican/parliamentary pretenses
-- some combination of the two.
-- a northern military dictatorship that may or may not support the Qing in name, pitted against nascent southern revolutionaries allied/controlled by local military governors.

raharris1973 said:

WI Yuan tried to loyally do what he was brought out of retirement to do, crush the rebels who launched the Wuchang uprising and sympathetic risings in other southern provinces?

This means a civil war rather than a rapid 1911 revolution and endgame, presuming Yuan can keep the Beiyang army troops all loyal.

Will Yuan be able to crush the rebellious provinces, or will he sink with the Qing in perhaps a slower, more painful fight against the Chinese revolution that still inexorably ousts the Qing and defeats Yuan within a few years?

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Well... depends on how early Yuan Shikai declares his loyalty to the Qing. He does it early (like the crucial few days after Wuchang) - the rebellion collapses in a few days, as the Qing clearly possesses the loyalty of the most powerful army in China, fence-sitters take the side of the Qing, and pro-Qing leaders actively resist insurrection.

He does it OTL in 1st November, he'd have a much more powerful fight on his hands as now the revolution has spread along the entire southern flank of China from Sichuan to Shanghai, and parts of the Qing navy have defected. Still likely to win, but it will take a few months to do so. Lack of co-ordination amongst the rebels is a major issue, and with Sun Yat-Sen still abroad at the time the lack of a figurehead will hurt the Republican cause.

As for the future... a "loyal" Yuan Shikai that is willing to support the Qing thus is also likely to keep the Qing afloat for the duration of his service rather than to plot for personal gain. This could buy time for the Qing to enact their constitutional reforms - especially with an all-Han cabinet - and draw the support of moderates to their rule, preventing the semi-anarchy that reigned throughout the Republican period. A worse-case scenario could see the PM-ship of the Qing transfer to various Beiyang commanders in a semi-military-dictatorship, but OTL warlordism is still less likely because of the intact bureaucratic and legitimacy structures of a surviving Qing.

BTW I don't think the Qing, in such a scenario, would assassinate Yuan Shikai. They didn't do that with Zeng Guofan (and in this scenario Yuan is basically Zeng Mk.II), the Imperial Court was nowhere near powerful enough to stand without Yuan's help (Prince Chun being sent away), and there are better ways to mollify Yuan than having him dead, like maybe marrying his family into the Imperial family or something.