In OTL, the Soviets signed the Nazi-Soviet Nonaggression Pact because they were unhappy about not being invited to the Munich Agreement. What if the Soviets had been invited and attended?
1938: Soviets Invited to the Munich Agreement
- Thread starter Montgomerie Ward
- Start date
Because they were firmly allied with Czechoslovakia, and wouldn't sell them down the river, like France and Britain did?
Note that Czechoslovakia wasn't invited !!!
It would be a huge difference, and I'm not sure that Hitler would have gone ahead with the conference if the Czechs and Soviets were invited.
Realpolitik
Banned
Hitler doesn't go. Besides, the Soviets don't border the country and there is no way in hell the Poles or Romanians will tolerate the Soviets moving through. Hitler will get two new allies like that, pre 1939, if that happens. To say nothing of the purges.
Hitler would obviously not go along with a Soviet role, nor would the Soviets go along with the (barely disguised) surrender Britain and France were intending. The real question is whether, if France and the UK stood firm, the USSR could or would do anything to help Czechoslovakia. I have discussed this in soc.history.what-if:
"Of course to say that there is no convincing evidence that Romania agreed
to the passage of Soviet troops does not mean that it would not have done
so *if the French and British had agreed to defend Czechoslovakia.*
Ragsdale thinks it possible that Romania would indeed have agreed to Red
Army passage in such event, but such consent would have limited military
significance, since the Romanian railway network was in no condition to
support a large and rapid movement of Soviet troops. The only real way
for the Soviet Union to help Czechoslovakia was through Poland, and
Ragsdale believes that if France and Britain had agreed to fight, this is
exactly what the Soviets would do--*even without Poland's consent.*
(Poland was much less likely to give consent than Romania; the Poles were
more suspicious of the Russians than even the Romanians were, and unlike
the Romanians, who were part of the Little Entente, the Poles did not have
any alliance with Czechoslovakia and indeed got along with it rather
badly.) He admits that the evidence on this is not conclusive and cannot
be at least until "the furtive Neanderthals who are the keepers of the
secrets of the Russian archives"(p. 192) allow greater access; but he does
cite as evidence the fact that "In the spring of 1936, both the Soviet
military attaché in Paris and Minister Alexandrovskii in Prague, in
response to the question how the Red Army would come to the assistance of
Czechoslovakia, stated plainly that it would come through Poland, where we
have seen that the rail network was considerably more advantageous than
that of Romania." (p. 183) [1] He also notes the "simultaneity of the
Soviet mobilization of 21-3 September and the warning to Poland that its
intervention in Czechoslovakia would abrogate the Polish-Soviet treaty of
nonaggression, 23 September..." (p. 183) https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/wG0p4pYTgC0/JLBnxJQ4k-wJ
***
In another post, I note:
"And earlier in the book (p. 167),
Ragsdale notes that "In the spring of 1936, the French General Staff had asked
the Soviet military attaché in Paris how the Soviet Union would render
military aid to France if Germany attacked France. His reply was blunt and
infinitely intriguing: '*en attaquant la Pologne.*'" https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/lK6e6ra68Kw/3Cc0SD507mkJ
"Of course to say that there is no convincing evidence that Romania agreed
to the passage of Soviet troops does not mean that it would not have done
so *if the French and British had agreed to defend Czechoslovakia.*
Ragsdale thinks it possible that Romania would indeed have agreed to Red
Army passage in such event, but such consent would have limited military
significance, since the Romanian railway network was in no condition to
support a large and rapid movement of Soviet troops. The only real way
for the Soviet Union to help Czechoslovakia was through Poland, and
Ragsdale believes that if France and Britain had agreed to fight, this is
exactly what the Soviets would do--*even without Poland's consent.*
(Poland was much less likely to give consent than Romania; the Poles were
more suspicious of the Russians than even the Romanians were, and unlike
the Romanians, who were part of the Little Entente, the Poles did not have
any alliance with Czechoslovakia and indeed got along with it rather
badly.) He admits that the evidence on this is not conclusive and cannot
be at least until "the furtive Neanderthals who are the keepers of the
secrets of the Russian archives"(p. 192) allow greater access; but he does
cite as evidence the fact that "In the spring of 1936, both the Soviet
military attaché in Paris and Minister Alexandrovskii in Prague, in
response to the question how the Red Army would come to the assistance of
Czechoslovakia, stated plainly that it would come through Poland, where we
have seen that the rail network was considerably more advantageous than
that of Romania." (p. 183) [1] He also notes the "simultaneity of the
Soviet mobilization of 21-3 September and the warning to Poland that its
intervention in Czechoslovakia would abrogate the Polish-Soviet treaty of
nonaggression, 23 September..." (p. 183) https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/wG0p4pYTgC0/JLBnxJQ4k-wJ
***
In another post, I note:
"And earlier in the book (p. 167),
Ragsdale notes that "In the spring of 1936, the French General Staff had asked
the Soviet military attaché in Paris how the Soviet Union would render
military aid to France if Germany attacked France. His reply was blunt and
infinitely intriguing: '*en attaquant la Pologne.*'" https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/lK6e6ra68Kw/3Cc0SD507mkJ
Realistically, nothing. The Soviets were willing to fight only if the French and British were, and the French and British weren't willing to fight at all. However, any change introduces butterflies into a volatile situation. Hitler was engaged in brinksmanship, and more than willing to order an invasion of Czechoslovakia. From there, a different POD presents itself: if Hitler refused mediation, what would the French and British do? The Soviets would follow their lead.
Hilarious. All we know is that Stalin was very adamant about defending Czechoslovakia when there was absolutely zero chance of the USSR doing so.
If Stalin actually needed to defend Czechoslovakia - either alone or with the West - I doubt very much if much Soviet help would actually arrive. There is no evidence that Stalin would act on his words, and lots of historical precedent that such commitment would be ignored as soon as it can be convenient to do so.
See my post above, and also recall the Soviet mobilization in September 1938.
https://books.google.com/books?id=C0UsBgAAQBAJ&pg=PA62 I'm not saying that this proves the USSR would fight, but I would not rule out the possibility.
Romanians would tolerate and actually allowed overflight OTL especially if promised they will be in certain higher altitude.
Romanians as well promised Prague they will allow transfer of armaments and even soldiers.
I'm not so sure. I'd have to dig about but, my understanding has been the Poles intended to join in pressuring the Germans to back off and solidify their tie with France, if the Red actively support the Cezchs. They saw no advantage in alliance with Germany assigning it a last gambit of desperation. In the Polish view of the latter 1930s the best case scenario was the French stand firm and take action that will weaken Germany. They really badly wanted a much more active France and were willing to support any thing that undercut Germany, so they could focus their streangth on defending in the east.
They do not border that country because of 4km!
Over flights to Czechoslovakia from USSR were all-ready prepared.
If Beneš Does not s**t his pants. And will not sign the Surrender (in effect) which BTW : Did not have right to sign anyway, history will spin.
From this TL we might get this joke: How thus Pz III react with T-34? Violently in all directions
