Your goal is to get Russia to conquer all of historical Armenia from the Ottomans somehow and explain the effects of it.
AHC: Russia Seizes All of Historical Armenia from the Ottomans
- Thread starter TickTock The Witch's Dead
- Start date
How do you define 'historical' Armenia? I think a general revolt of the Armenians during the Russo-Turkish War (and the massacres that would inevitably ensue) could have helped the Russians occupy a greater portion of the southeastern Anatolian hinterland, a large portion of which they probably would have been allowed to keep at San Stefano as it wasn't excessively important to the European powers (especially in comparison with the Balkans, where Russia would otherwise have to be compensated).
But there's almost 0% chance that Russia would be able to conquer all the way up to Armenian Cilicia (which includes the Mediterranean port of Adana and would sever Ottoman Arabia from Turkey proper) without triggering some British intervention.
For the latter to happen, you'd probably need something like a modified Sykes-Picot Agreement, where Germany knocks France out of WWI instead of Russia, which allows the Tsar to reshuffle the proposed spheres of influence in the Ottoman Empire with the UK so as to include coastal Cilicia (the latter of which was to be assigned to France).
But there's almost 0% chance that Russia would be able to conquer all the way up to Armenian Cilicia (which includes the Mediterranean port of Adana and would sever Ottoman Arabia from Turkey proper) without triggering some British intervention.
For the latter to happen, you'd probably need something like a modified Sykes-Picot Agreement, where Germany knocks France out of WWI instead of Russia, which allows the Tsar to reshuffle the proposed spheres of influence in the Ottoman Empire with the UK so as to include coastal Cilicia (the latter of which was to be assigned to France).
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How about Russia secretly supporting the Armenian rebels from late 18th century to an extended version of Russo-Turkish War of 1870s?
Great !! A new Armenian TL !!
I agree with profxyz that a Russian-sponsored Greater Armenia stretching from Caucasus to Cilicia is too much....the demographics of the period didn't support that territorial extent, and IMHO in any case it would be unacceptable for Britain, interested in keeping the Russians far from the Med.
But a territory from current Armenia to W of lake Van, is somewhat closer to plausibility.....provided that a mass population tranfer of Armenians from the rest of the Six Vilayets and an equivalent exodus of Muslims take place......maybe after a more succesful campaign against the Ottomans in 1878, and better outcome of the Berlin Treaty. A good starting point would be abc123's TL, a quasi post-San Stefano scenario, with Alexander II avoiding assasination and the Armenian Loris-Melikov still in office.
In any case, it must be noted that outright annexation of all this territory gives Russia full command of trade routes between Black Sea and Persia (an alternate route to Suez), something difficult to the Brits to swallow again..... in fact, TTL Brittish meddling in Otoman Armenian affairs happened just for preventing Russian encroachment.
Therefore, I think that the most plausible outcome is a Russian-sponsored autonomous Armenia, with Britons trying to undermine Tsar's influence.
Here are some thoughts of my own about the matter
I agree with profxyz that a Russian-sponsored Greater Armenia stretching from Caucasus to Cilicia is too much....the demographics of the period didn't support that territorial extent, and IMHO in any case it would be unacceptable for Britain, interested in keeping the Russians far from the Med.
But a territory from current Armenia to W of lake Van, is somewhat closer to plausibility.....provided that a mass population tranfer of Armenians from the rest of the Six Vilayets and an equivalent exodus of Muslims take place......maybe after a more succesful campaign against the Ottomans in 1878, and better outcome of the Berlin Treaty. A good starting point would be abc123's TL, a quasi post-San Stefano scenario, with Alexander II avoiding assasination and the Armenian Loris-Melikov still in office.
In any case, it must be noted that outright annexation of all this territory gives Russia full command of trade routes between Black Sea and Persia (an alternate route to Suez), something difficult to the Brits to swallow again..... in fact, TTL Brittish meddling in Otoman Armenian affairs happened just for preventing Russian encroachment.
Therefore, I think that the most plausible outcome is a Russian-sponsored autonomous Armenia, with Britons trying to undermine Tsar's influence.
Here are some thoughts of my own about the matter
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Kill the whole Ottoman royal family during the 1808 coup which IOTL just killed Selim III. Mahmut was the only surviving Ottoman after Selim died so with him gone as well, the empire is essentially finished and storm ensues. In that case the empire is pretty much ripe for picking.
What if Russia seized Greater and Lesser Armenia? How would that affect things?
How about seizing eastern Trebzond and Erzurum vilayets, with possible population exchanges?
Rusia so close to Eastern Mediterranean and Suez?. That leads inevitably to a new war against Britain....perhaps a Crimean War 2.0....
How would the Kurds be affected and where would they be in OTL? That was what I was wondering.
Well, there would be alot more Armenians (and Greeks and Assyrians).
Would it be a direct province (Russian Armenia, Turkish Armenia, Pontus Greece and Assyria) or would it be a "protected" tribute state like the Kingdom of Georgia started out as?
That might make a difference. Just enough alliance with Russia to keep out most invasions from Persia or Turkey but not much direct oversight by the Czar/Communists would probably be the Armenian sweet spot.
Would it be a direct province (Russian Armenia, Turkish Armenia, Pontus Greece and Assyria) or would it be a "protected" tribute state like the Kingdom of Georgia started out as?
That might make a difference. Just enough alliance with Russia to keep out most invasions from Persia or Turkey but not much direct oversight by the Czar/Communists would probably be the Armenian sweet spot.
I think there are Assyrians in Diyarbakir and southern Van vilayets.
They still will have their northern Iraq community right?