WI No Cecil Rhodes? + French Algeria Split?

What if, for whatever reason, Cecil Rhodes never becomes an important or significant figure in South African/British African history. With no Cecil Rhodes, will Britain still end up controlling so much of South and East Africa like in OTL and have the Cape to Cairo ambition or will the Portuguese and Germans step in to fill the vacuum?

I'm mostly thinking about the 'Pink Map' situation with Portugal in OTL Angola, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique because in the timeline I'm doing the British 1890 Ultimatum never happens (and Cecil Rhodes seemed to have quite a bit to do with this). Also in this timeline WWI is butterflied away and Germany will become quite a big power in Europe so with no Cecil Rhodes, will Germany end up having a greater influence in Africa?


This is a completely different topic but I may as well ask it at the same time...
In the same timeline I'm doing, pied-noirs end up being the majority in Northern Algeria due to mass immigration into Algeria, yet the southern Saharan part of Algerian has almost no pied-noir people and is largely Arab or Berber. When decolonisation comes around, will France keep northern Algeria or will they bite the bullet and integrate the whole of Algeria into 'la Métropole?'

I don't know enough about Cecil Rhodes to help you offhand with your first question I'm afraid, It's a gap in my knowledge that I plan on getting around to fixing one of these days

Concerning Algeria, it depends on exactly how things play out. If I remember correctly, the main competing interests in OTL as concerns the topic at hand were those of the colonial settlers, who pushed for integration, and the military, who wanted Algeria to remain under military administration to ensure that the Muslim population was controlled. If Southern Algeria is still overwhelmingly Muslim, then the case for it remaining outside the civil administration/not being integrated, which here would mean handing it over to the Algerians, is still pretty strong.

Is it a liberal (or at least not too conservative) government that is overseeing this decolonisation? If Northern Algeria is properly settled, they won't be able to hand that to the Algerians, but they will still push to give away the south.

If it's a more conservative government, they are going to try and told onto it, especially as if northern Algeria has been integrated, the Pied Noirs are going to have a larger say in government and they're going to push to keep the south.

Also, how are the Algerians themselves acting? Are they conducting a war of independence as per OTL? If the south is unruly/particularly costly to keep hold of, the French aren't going to want to keep it.

May I ask the POD you're using to increase French settlement? Or am I going to have to wait to see it in the TL

The government will likely be a conservative constitutional monarchy under the House of Orleans. It's going to be part of a timeline with a POD in the 1860's (around Canadian Confederation) where colonialism is viewed very differently and settler colonies become much more common than economic colonies (eg. Dutch East Indies, Philippines, much of Africa). As WWI is butterflied away, many colonies do not begin to gain a sense of nationhood or colonial nationalism and see themselves as an extension of the motherland. For the British Empire, each 'white settler' dominion has their own "royal family" and a Prince or Princess of the colony who is descended from Queen Victoria (eg. Prince of Canada, Prince of Australia, Prince of South Africa, Prince of New Zealand etc) as well as their own peerage system. The Prince(ss) of the colony replaces the OTL Governor and they are seen as the British monarch's representative in the dominion.

I haven't planned out the specific POD for the increased immigration to France yet but I was originally planning to have a disease outbreak in Europe, like an earlier Spanish Influenza but I realised that that would probably mean less immigration to Africa instead of increased immigration, so I'm now thinking a civil war in France around the 1870's-80's between monarchist and republican factions, as in the timeline republicanism is a lot less popular in Europe and the vast majority of countries in Europe have monarchs rather than Presidents an in OTL.
(I must admit some things in the timeline may be borderline ASB but I'm trying to keep it to a minimum where possible).

In the scenario you've outlined, I'd predict some messy conflicts between 'colonial' nations and 'native' nations, if decolonisation in non-settled areas still goes ahead in a similar manner as per OTL. I'd imagine there would be a strong division between these two camps, thanks to a lot of bad blood and the 'natives' wanting their land back. I think Southern Algeria would be let go after a bloody colonial war, as per OTL, unless steps are made to bring the Muslim population into the fold like extending citizenship to them. But I think this would be unlikely as the Pied Noirs would be firmly against such moves, as in OTL, and would be able to wield their extra political clout ITTL to prevent it coming about. Although if you wanted to see that happen, I don't think having the Orleans dynasty forcing through such a comparatively liberal agenda would be much of a stretch as long as the Pied Noirs are numerous enough to be able to remain in control of the civil administration.