Christian Lebanon?

Current best estimates place the Christian population of Lebanon at between 35 and 40%.

At the time of its formation within its present border (1920), Lebanon was thought to be majority (Maronnite) Christian ... though some believe this census (the last formally taken in the country) was somewhat manipulated to provide an advantage to the Christian communities.

Since it seems to have been Christian as late as the 1930s, with a POD sometime in the 1930s or 1940s, how could a Christian Lebanon be maintained?

Would such a country be viewed as Western or still part of the Arab world? or a hybrid of sorts?

Would it be allied with France? Israel?

What would be the impact on Christians in the Middle East? Greater persecution than currently faced, or better treatment thanks to this Christian toehold in the region?

Eitheir you redraw the frontiers of Lebanon, or.. ethnic cleansings of muslims.

It's dark, yeah - but notice that in that civil war OTL, christian militians where as bad as the others... nobody was clean.

Of course, ATL can be dark and nasty, dystopic....

They would properly be seen pre Israel as Christan Ethiopia was seen. Christan yet still not equal to civilized country´s. Post Israel they would be Seen as turkey is today seen, not fully ,,western,, yet not fully ,,middle eastern,,.

I don´t know much about Lebanon and it´s history but I do know that christens were more likely to immigrate properly because they were more accepted in there chosen country then there muslin counterparts. There are most likely more factors to consider but having Americans and Europeans more hostile to Lebanese christens or more accepting of Lebanese muslims will help your goal.

Whether they will be allied with France or Israel depends on aggressiveness and nature of there neighbors are. If Israel´s neighbors play the religious justification game then it will properly driven Lebanon into defensive alliance with Israel. However if they seam more practical, reasonable and most important of all do not seam to desire Lebanese territory Lebanon would work with then against Israel.

Maybe they can be going Stalin's way and doing population exchange, bringing Mid East christians in and muslims out, with limiting state in size a bit. We all know worse things happened. Such Lebannon definetly will share highest place on the podium with Israel in most hated nation competition in area. Should be more stable than otl, nothings better for national unity than existentional threat.

karikon said:

They would properly be seen pre Israel as Christan Ethiopia was seen. Christan yet still not equal to civilized country´s. Post Israel they would be Seen as turkey is today seen, not fully ,,western,, yet not fully ,,middle eastern,,.

I don´t know much about Lebanon and it´s history but I do know that christens were more likely to immigrate properly because they were more accepted in there chosen country then there muslin counterparts. There are most likely more factors to consider but having Americans and Europeans more hostile to Lebanese christens or more accepting of Lebanese muslims will help your goal.

Whether they will be allied with France or Israel depends on aggressiveness and nature of there neighbors are. If Israel´s neighbors play the religious justification game then it will properly driven Lebanon into defensive alliance with Israel. However if they seam more practical, reasonable and most important of all do not seam to desire Lebanese territory Lebanon would work with then against Israel.

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What if religious persecution is another Arab state leads to significant immigration TO Lebanon?

Say, Coptic Christians? for example.

marcinL said:

Maybe they can be going Stalin's way and doing population exchange, bringing Mid East christians in and muslims out, with limiting state in size a bit. We all know worse things happened. Such Lebannon definetly will share highest place on the podium with Israel in most hated nation competition in area. Should be more stable than otl, nothings better for national unity than existentional threat.

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Maye easier to defend, isn't it a more mountainous land?

Dahveed323 said:

At the time of its formation within its present border (1920), Lebanon was thought to be majority (Maronnite) Christian ... though some believe this census (the last formally taken in the country) was somewhat manipulated to provide an advantage to the Christian communities.

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The 1932 Census gave a result of 53% Christians overall, the Maronites, a specific denomination were and are not the majority.

Having said that their are real and legitimate questions about the accuracy of the Census, and the Christian population has been gradually declining as an overall percentage of the population since the early 60's.

Overall if you want a Majority Christian Lebanon today you need it to have not had its borders expanded so much; removing the North-East and Central-East borderlands would significantly help in this while keeping the country large enough to be sustainable.

That is easy. Have the French not expand the boundaries of Lebanon in the first place, enact some population transfers between any Christian, Druze and Muslim areas and you would have a fairly but not overwhelmingly Christian state in the Middle East that is likely allied to Israel and France.

Cuāuhtemōc said:

That is easy. Have the French not expand the boundaries of Lebanon in the first place, enact some population transfers between any Christian, Druze and Muslim areas and you would have a fairly but not overwhelmingly Christian state in the Middle East that is likely allied to Israel and France.

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I suppose Cazas where a region administrative separation - colonial era map?

Cuāuhtemōc said:

That is easy. Have the French not expand the boundaries of Lebanon in the first place, enact some population transfers between any Christian, Druze and Muslim areas and you would have a fairly but not overwhelmingly Christian state in the Middle East that is likely allied to Israel and France.

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The problem is that without expanding it Lebanon would'nt be a viable state; any Lebanon will have to accept a large Muslim minority, but the borders can be drawn in such a way to allow for it to both be large enough to be viable while also ensuring the Christians are the majority in most of it.

Corbell Mark IV said:

What if religious persecution is another Arab state leads to significant immigration TO Lebanon?

Say, Coptic Christians? for example.

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I've thought about this ... but Copts are Egyptian in a very profound way and the Copt language predates Arabic in Egypt by centuries.

I was thinking that, maybe there could be an influx of Christian refugees at the time of the creation of Lebanon - possibly intent on making their way eventually to Europe, but with large portions remaining. Similar to Jewish refugees fleeing muslim countries at that the time of Israel's creation ...

Iori said:

The problem is that without expanding it Lebanon would'nt be a viable state; any Lebanon will have to accept a large Muslim minority, but the borders can be drawn in such a way to allow for it to both be large enough to be viable while also ensuring the Christians are the majority in most of it.

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Agreed, one issue is making it geostrategically viable so it survives ... you could easily create a state called Lebanon right on the coast and have it overrun swiftly.

Lebanon self-identified as Arab, and during the heydey of Arab nationalism (which united Arabs regardless of religion) from 1940s to 1960s they were not definitely not part of the West in a traditional sense. However, French influence was very high, and there is a very good reason why Beirut used to be known as the Paris of the Middle East.

After Arab nationalism declined and religious identity became more important, I think the Christian Lebanese began to assert their identity as being more based on the older Phoenician heritage that marked Lebanon as separate from the Arabs. The Sunni and Shia Muslims in Lebanon don't.

If Christians retained dominance in Lebanon, the country could identify as something other than Arab. I don't know if it would be enough to make them consider themselves "Western" but it is possible. If they do consider themselves to be part of the West, then I think Europeans and North Americans would eventually agree with them by the 1990s (after the Cold War).

A Lebanon where Christians were dominant would not exploded into an unending civil war like what happened IOTL. Western influence in Lebanon would have increased, and Westerners would not have associated negative things with Lebanon. It's also highly likely that Lebanon would have signed a peace agreement with Israel sometime in the 1980s or 1990s, and even had a de facto (if not de jure) defensive alliance with Israel against Syria. All of this would make it much easier for Lebanon to be accepted by others as part of the west.

My best guess would be religious violence in neighboring countries leads to a large influx of Christians. IRL, large numbers of Christians fled from Iraq to Syria and other nearby countries following the violence in post-invasion Iraq.

Kordo said:

My best guess would be religious violence in neighboring countries leads to a large influx of Christians. IRL, large numbers of Christians fled from Iraq to Syria and other nearby countries following the violence in post-invasion Iraq.

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Actually most fled to Turkey (and to some degree, Israel), from which point many continued on to the Nordic countries, the United States and to a lesser degree, Argentina.

Iori said:

Actually most fled to Turkey (and to some degree, Israel), fomr which point many continued on to the Nordic countries, the United States and to a lesser degree, Argentina.

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Indeed. POD needs to be early ... 30s or 40s such that lebanon can avoid civil war and actually be a destination for christians fleeing persecution within the Muslim world ... such stability would also make it a tourist destination and help it build ties with other, non-arab Mediterranean countries ... I'm thinking France, Greece and Israel primarily.

Maybe a such a Lebanon suffers from terrorism like Israel but doesn't fall into civil war due to the outright strength of the Christian majority and their control of the economy, gov't and military?

And using the above map, here's about what I think could've been done to ensure the country was both viable as well as reducing the Muslim population;

Iori said:

And using the above map, here's about what I think could've been done to ensure the country was both viable as well as reducing the Muslim population;

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Only problem i see here is that with the creation of israel, the shia in the southern portions likely migrate to lebanon anyways ....

Dahveed323 said:

Only problem i see here is that with the creation of israel, the shia in the southern portions likely migrate to lebanon anyways ....

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Excluding the two small southernmost ones the southern portions would actually be part of Syria, and even in the aforementioned ones I could see Israel treating them slightly better as a way of diminishing the power of the Sunni Palestinians leading to the Shi'a remaining.

As stated, keep Lebanon smaller, and you have a Christian majority state.

As others have pointed out, drawing Christian immigration over the coming years would certainly help - maybe even limited Western immigration as well later on.

Continued French support for the state would be a plus - rather than cutting them lose ASAP, help direct development and aid to the young nation until it can stand on it's own.