After the extinction of the Emirate of Granada in 1492, what was the likelihood and capability of a Maghrebi dynasty launching a renewed attack on Iberia during the 16th century? And what would be the conditions most favorable for it re-establishing Muslim rule over some part of the peninsula for a non-trivial amount of time?
Granada avenged?
- Thread starter Qhapaq Inka
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Apparently people tell me that post Granada deconquista are apparently very implausible, although they did not elaborate very much (and I cannot remember on what they did elaborate) as to why.
I am of the belief that Juana of Castilla at the earliest might be able to ruin Spain enough for Muslims to reconquer it, but then again, the reconquista did have quite the unifying and empowering effect on the Spanish people.
Next to impossible at this point. Before Granada was tolerated for various reasons, like the rivalries between the Iberian kingdoms, the large tribute that the Emir payed to Castile and internal tensions within the various nations of the peninsula. By the 1500s these reasons had vanished: Castile and Aragon were united into Spain, the Spanish were receiving wealth from other sources (the colonies, Italy, ex) and going to war against the infidels was a great way to unify a country.
If the Moroccans attempted this in any meaningful way they'd be met by a strong, unified nation that hated their guts. Not a good scenario for a Muslim reconquista.
If the Moroccans attempted this in any meaningful way they'd be met by a strong, unified nation that hated their guts. Not a good scenario for a Muslim reconquista.
Hmm, not very auspicious then. What was the state of Morocco in 1500, in terms of military and economic power?
And is there any possibility that the Ottomans could conquer Morocco at some point and then launch an invasion of Iberia, drawing on their empire's resources?
And is there any possibility that the Ottomans could conquer Morocco at some point and then launch an invasion of Iberia, drawing on their empire's resources?
I am not too fond of using Wikipedia often but it's 4AM and I can't sleep....
"Portuguese efforts to control the Atlantic sea trade in the 15th century did not greatly affect the interior of Morocco even though they managed to control some possessions on the Moroccan coast but not venturing further afield inland.
On another note and according to Elizabeth Allo Isichei, 'In 1520, there was a famine in Morocco so terrible that for a long time other events were dated by it. It has been suggested that the population of Morocco fell from 5 to under 3 million between the early sixteenth and nineteenth centuries.'"
The main thing that the Ottomans would need is a dominant navy in order to go through with a plan like invading Iberia. However, in my opinion it would be a suicide mission. The battle of Lepanto in 1571 would end the naval expansion of the Ottomans. Other than that, as far as I am aware, the Ottomans were focusing more so on the Balkans and making their way to Vienna.
If Aben Humeya wasn't assassinated literally days before the Spanish army invaded rhe Alpurajjas, the revolt could have been successful and held out. When you combine this with the fact decade later Al-Mansur of Morocco had plans to invade Spain, it makes the idea of Al-Andalus returning a lot more plausible.
The two states could have worked in tandem the same way the Taifas requested Almoravid help a few centuries earlier.
When you combine this with the fact there was already an Anglo-Moroccan alliance against Spain at this period, a state actually in Iberia could a valuable asset towards.
The Moriscos already held the towns directly in the shadows of rhe Alpurajja mountains, and I think rexonquering Granada would be very plausible. Aben Humeya, the leader of the rebellion, was quick to distrust Turkish and Maghrebi attempts at helping him, which was part of his downfall. If he accepts Ottoman hegemony, the battle of Lepanto would be butterflied/different results allowing the Ottomans to help the neo - Emirate of Granada.
Optimisticly the state could reconquer as far as Sevilla.
The early 1500s for a Muslim reconquista are implausible, however the later 1500s provide a good POD and circumstances. Powerful United Moroccan state, growing disatsifaction of Moriscos, wars of religion within Christendom, Ottoman - Habsburg rivalry.
A PoD within the Morisco Revolt could lead to a modest Muslim state present within Iberia.
To be clear, a morisco revolt aided by Ahmad al-Mansur, right? There's no way a revolt on its own could do anything significant without bad luck, is there?
Aben Humeya's revolt worked successfully for 2-3 years due to guerrilla tactics, there was nothing wrong with the tactics or manpower of the Moriscos. The revolt fell apart due to infighting at the literal worst timing (Aben Humeya was assassinated as the Spanish army arrived in the Alpurajjas), and distrust of Muslim allies (such as the Ottomans and Morocco).
I believe the invasion that Spain launched to crush the rebellion could have been defeated if Aben Humeya lived, it was only a force of 20,000. From there, the city of Granada could be recaptured in a counterattack. With luck, this Emirate can hold on for 5-6 years until Al-Mansur becomes the hegemonic leader of the Maghreb and gets his OTL romantic ideas of Al-Andalus, and can give the Emirate the life line it needs to sustain itself.
So yes, whilst the Morisco state would need Al-Mansur's help (as well as that of England and the Ottomans) up till the early 1600s, I believe from that point onwards it could support itself as a nation. (Hopefully also with some bad luck for the Habsburgs elsewhere to take their mind off Granada). If Granada survives to the year 1700, it will survive as a nation state.
Wow, I had no idea that there were revolts against Spanish rule after the 1492 conquest. Goes to show how little we're often taught in history classes.
What about taking the converse route - somehow having a crisis and breakdown within the Spanish state soon after unification, as Isfendil alluded to?
What about taking the converse route - somehow having a crisis and breakdown within the Spanish state soon after unification, as Isfendil alluded to?
Maybe if Juana was born male but still mad, that would give *her more authority to ruin Spain long enough for the Saadi's to produce al-Mansur.
Either that, or the Ottomans could win the siege of Vienna, which would make the Hapsburgs go ballistic and reroute all power to the east.
I'm just spitballing here, so these may be . . . hackneyed? Is that the right word for it?
This possibility is so implausible...
No, this possibility is so implausible that is coming to an absolute impossibility.
First... except the unlikely concerning to Morocco, the other factors were present in OTL and despite them,in OTL, this course of events did not happen and instead the opposite happened until the battle of Lepanto, marked the end of the maritime threat ottoman in the Western Mediterranean.
Then it would happen the final conquest of Granada and from then on there was no organized military threat against the Spanish Mediterranean coast.
Since the defeat of the Merinides in the Battle of Salado and Castilian control of the Strait and its main defensive enclaves: Gibraltar, Algeciras and Tarifa, which precluded any attempt at landing and African invasion, besides that should be able to defeat the Spanish fleet in the Mediterranean.
Besides, as part of this offensive should be first of its forces Islamic forces one concerted effort to conquer all the Spanish strongholds on the Mediterranean coast of Africa.
Regarding hypothetical Ottoman support is unfeasible and impossible .. we just consider the military and logistical effort involved in their failed attempts to conquer Malta.
First of all the Ottomans should conquered Malta and after this conquest should attack the Spanish possessions in Sicily and Naples, to secure their conquest. Only the conquest of Malta would require an even greater effort than the one carried out in OTL; from these numbers it is possible to project that required an attempt to conquer Sicily, which would require first isolate and then a long ground campaign, was out of the Ottoman possibilities let alone the economic, military and logistical efforts to even consider sending a fleet to fight in Spanish waters to support a hypothetical invasion force against Spain...
If not was eliminate the threat of Malta and the Spanish bases in southern Italy.
Not to mention that Spain would not remain passively waiting for his enemies and the actions of these would have the primary effect of predictable alarm and intensification of military preparations and offensive and defensive actions of Spain in response to the renewed Ottoman offensive and / or African offensive.
Assuming, of course that a hypothetical coalition of African tribes, the successor to the Merinides, achieve unity of action and have enough military power to unify Morocco and / or Algeria ... to build and equip an army and a navy European-style... and if you can do then is faced with the task of destroying the Spanish Mediterranean fleet...
Achieving this should besiege and conquer defensive enclaves mentioned above: Gibraltar, Algeciras and Tarifa; of course only from a 'voluntarist' perspective one can assume that it may happen that combination of socio-political factors and improbable military actions in favor of the Muslims.
But assuming it arrives to this favorable situation and be besieging these strongholds in Spain ... should take them before the Atlantic fleet of Spain can meet and on their way to face the rest of the Muslim fleet had defeated his countrymen of the Mediterranean fleet.
These invaders by land should confront the permanent troops then leading military power in Europe besides military troops recruited in Spain to face the threat of invasion.
These troops were the basis of the best infantry in Europe for more than a century, they would be fighting in his homeland and against which they considered their natural enemy.
Spain in the sixteenth century, there were regular army units ready always in a state of 'war footing', although there were no imminent threat.
Besides that for internal security and as a quick reaction force, in modern terms, it was created 'The Holy Brotherhood' by the Catholic Monarchs in 1476 to ensure security and maintain law and order in all the territories of the Crown, by so, it was the first national police force in the West. It was conceived as a body of permanent army of professional soldiers and militiamen.
Not counting in the number of forces available to the Spanish monarch, the mercenaries so often used by the Habsburgs and the Portuguese factor, either as an independent kingdom or united as a member of the Habsburg Monarchy; not remain indifferent to the threat posed by this alleged and hypothetical North African power and in the case discussed here, their national and religious interests undoubtedly be aligned with the Spaniards.
No, this possibility is so implausible that is coming to an absolute impossibility.
First... except the unlikely concerning to Morocco, the other factors were present in OTL and despite them,in OTL, this course of events did not happen and instead the opposite happened until the battle of Lepanto, marked the end of the maritime threat ottoman in the Western Mediterranean.
Then it would happen the final conquest of Granada and from then on there was no organized military threat against the Spanish Mediterranean coast.
Since the defeat of the Merinides in the Battle of Salado and Castilian control of the Strait and its main defensive enclaves: Gibraltar, Algeciras and Tarifa, which precluded any attempt at landing and African invasion, besides that should be able to defeat the Spanish fleet in the Mediterranean.
Besides, as part of this offensive should be first of its forces Islamic forces one concerted effort to conquer all the Spanish strongholds on the Mediterranean coast of Africa.
Regarding hypothetical Ottoman support is unfeasible and impossible .. we just consider the military and logistical effort involved in their failed attempts to conquer Malta.
First of all the Ottomans should conquered Malta and after this conquest should attack the Spanish possessions in Sicily and Naples, to secure their conquest. Only the conquest of Malta would require an even greater effort than the one carried out in OTL; from these numbers it is possible to project that required an attempt to conquer Sicily, which would require first isolate and then a long ground campaign, was out of the Ottoman possibilities let alone the economic, military and logistical efforts to even consider sending a fleet to fight in Spanish waters to support a hypothetical invasion force against Spain...
If not was eliminate the threat of Malta and the Spanish bases in southern Italy.
Not to mention that Spain would not remain passively waiting for his enemies and the actions of these would have the primary effect of predictable alarm and intensification of military preparations and offensive and defensive actions of Spain in response to the renewed Ottoman offensive and / or African offensive.
Assuming, of course that a hypothetical coalition of African tribes, the successor to the Merinides, achieve unity of action and have enough military power to unify Morocco and / or Algeria ... to build and equip an army and a navy European-style... and if you can do then is faced with the task of destroying the Spanish Mediterranean fleet...
Achieving this should besiege and conquer defensive enclaves mentioned above: Gibraltar, Algeciras and Tarifa; of course only from a 'voluntarist' perspective one can assume that it may happen that combination of socio-political factors and improbable military actions in favor of the Muslims.
But assuming it arrives to this favorable situation and be besieging these strongholds in Spain ... should take them before the Atlantic fleet of Spain can meet and on their way to face the rest of the Muslim fleet had defeated his countrymen of the Mediterranean fleet.
These invaders by land should confront the permanent troops then leading military power in Europe besides military troops recruited in Spain to face the threat of invasion.
These troops were the basis of the best infantry in Europe for more than a century, they would be fighting in his homeland and against which they considered their natural enemy.
Spain in the sixteenth century, there were regular army units ready always in a state of 'war footing', although there were no imminent threat.
Besides that for internal security and as a quick reaction force, in modern terms, it was created 'The Holy Brotherhood' by the Catholic Monarchs in 1476 to ensure security and maintain law and order in all the territories of the Crown, by so, it was the first national police force in the West. It was conceived as a body of permanent army of professional soldiers and militiamen.
Not counting in the number of forces available to the Spanish monarch, the mercenaries so often used by the Habsburgs and the Portuguese factor, either as an independent kingdom or united as a member of the Habsburg Monarchy; not remain indifferent to the threat posed by this alleged and hypothetical North African power and in the case discussed here, their national and religious interests undoubtedly be aligned with the Spaniards.
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the revived Islamic threat in Spain.
The most important factor is not given for both of you, I guess because of a desire for certain series of events happen, regardless of their implausibility to idealize the potential of rebels who fought as guerrillas by necessity rather than a strategic choice.
A rebellion that could not have effective external support for the reasons already stated.
Besides the claim is made that the army said rebels after losses incurred even in the best scenario, before the Spanish army ... could cover the distance that separates them from the city of Granada without having siege engines could take it and , let alone keep it, if by some miracle succeed in defeating the Spanish garrison and the local militia would defend the city.
Keep in mind that even if miraculously taken to the city... the 'distraction' of the Habsburgs, in the European affairs, would end and would be sent the necessary forces to end the rebellion forces.
No one could accept that the situation created by a successful Muslim rebellion is prolonged in time.
From both the Church and the Crown the reborn spirit of the Reconquista, the traditional anti-Muslim infidel ... be encouraged and would follow fighting until achieving destroy them.
Although for that the crown should invest all their economic resources and recruit and equip every man apt in Spain and / or bring back at least part of thirds who were fighting in Europe.
Because, as would be aware the Spanish monarch and his royal advisors; in this scenario would not only threaten the territorial integrity of Spain, but the very foundations of power and legitimacy of the crown against both the Church and the nobility and plus these estates in the eyes of the people should not be able to face and eliminate the revived Islamic threat in Spain.
Isfendil said:
XanXar said:
The most important factor is not given for both of you, I guess because of a desire for certain series of events happen, regardless of their implausibility to idealize the potential of rebels who fought as guerrillas by necessity rather than a strategic choice.
A rebellion that could not have effective external support for the reasons already stated.
Besides the claim is made that the army said rebels after losses incurred even in the best scenario, before the Spanish army ... could cover the distance that separates them from the city of Granada without having siege engines could take it and , let alone keep it, if by some miracle succeed in defeating the Spanish garrison and the local militia would defend the city.
Keep in mind that even if miraculously taken to the city... the 'distraction' of the Habsburgs, in the European affairs, would end and would be sent the necessary forces to end the rebellion forces.
No one could accept that the situation created by a successful Muslim rebellion is prolonged in time.
From both the Church and the Crown the reborn spirit of the Reconquista, the traditional anti-Muslim infidel ... be encouraged and would follow fighting until achieving destroy them.
Although for that the crown should invest all their economic resources and recruit and equip every man apt in Spain and / or bring back at least part of thirds who were fighting in Europe.
Because, as would be aware the Spanish monarch and his royal advisors; in this scenario would not only threaten the territorial integrity of Spain, but the very foundations of power and legitimacy of the crown against both the Church and the nobility and plus these estates in the eyes of the people should not be able to face and eliminate the revived Islamic threat in Spain.
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I understand where your coming from, and that it is unlikely that this Granada would not eventually be squashed by a far superior army, but you can't call the ideas of Moroccan and Ottoman support implausible when they occurred in OTL.
Half of Aben Humeya's forces were Turkish or North African in origin, this shows the Ottomans between 1568-1571 had some kind of presence in the Iberian Peninsula. Guerilla tactics and knowledge of the terrain managed to do well for 3 years, it was only due to infighting and an assassination that Don John's army overwhelmed the remaining Moriscos, causing Aben Humeya's successor Aben Aboo to consider surrendering a better option than fighting. (Note that Aben Aboo was a much more inefficient military leader than Aben Humeya).
At this point the Marinids no longer exist, we are talking about rhe 1560s-80s, the Saadis are the ruling dynasty of Morocco, and in 1578 Al-Mansur was sultan, who reconquered Portuguese Morocco, had strong ties to England and did consider an invasion of Spain. (This didn't happen due to subsaharan Africa taking precedence). The success of such an invasion is unlikely, and I admit I'm not well versed in the power of Spain at this point, but to deride the possibility of Ottoman and Moroccan support for a sizeably long guerrilla insurgency as impossible is baffling.
The scenario I stated was optimistic, but the underlying points are that a more successful Morisco revolt is very possible (how long it lasts is debateable) and Ottoman/Moroccan support (which occurred OTL) can be capitalised upon. (As well as England who later allied with Morocco for the same reasons it could ally with Granada, an anti-Spain coalition).
Thing is, Spain was extremely busy messing abou all over Europe in the Morisco period.
It seriously hurt them in the end, as they kept overextending, but a big Muslim invasion (if it gets past the Spanish fleets) might be just the thing to shock Spain into cutting losses in the HRE (depending on the exact date, that could mean anything between abandoning Austria to do the fighting against France/Sweden and just giving a few concessions to the semi-rebellious Dutch).
It seriously hurt them in the end, as they kept overextending, but a big Muslim invasion (if it gets past the Spanish fleets) might be just the thing to shock Spain into cutting losses in the HRE (depending on the exact date, that could mean anything between abandoning Austria to do the fighting against France/Sweden and just giving a few concessions to the semi-rebellious Dutch).
For Al-Mansur to invade Spain, he needs to have sizable gold resources of his own. And that was what made him go South, not northwards, against the Songhai, a struggle that helped to debilitate the power of Morocco.
The Ottoman Empire did help the moriscos of the Alpujarras in 1569-70. It never amounted too much in the general score of the rebellion. To have more effect you need a bigger effort (from where they are going to take it? Are they going to stop conquering Cyprus? Me thinks not) And defeat the fleet of Requesens. You need to avoid Lepanto to keep the Ottoman naval power alive.
The rebellion grows bigger? No problem. Reinforcements from Italy, as it happened IOTL.
By the time the rebellion takes place, the Moriscos had been living some decades with the Christians. They had few reasons to rise in arms. Those who did it where living in the countryside, while most of the Moriscos in the cities remained loyal to the Crown.
If the rebelion goes worse, we can finally have the funny situation of seeing loyal Moriscos helping to kill rebel ones.
To revenge Al-Andalus too many butterflies are needed, happening at the same time or close one after the next.
In short, I see more chances for the Ottomans to take Wien and then going on West than Al-Andalus going back to life. It's almost ASB.
The Ottoman Empire did help the moriscos of the Alpujarras in 1569-70. It never amounted too much in the general score of the rebellion. To have more effect you need a bigger effort (from where they are going to take it? Are they going to stop conquering Cyprus? Me thinks not) And defeat the fleet of Requesens. You need to avoid Lepanto to keep the Ottoman naval power alive.
The rebellion grows bigger? No problem. Reinforcements from Italy, as it happened IOTL.
By the time the rebellion takes place, the Moriscos had been living some decades with the Christians. They had few reasons to rise in arms. Those who did it where living in the countryside, while most of the Moriscos in the cities remained loyal to the Crown.
If the rebelion goes worse, we can finally have the funny situation of seeing loyal Moriscos helping to kill rebel ones.
To revenge Al-Andalus too many butterflies are needed, happening at the same time or close one after the next.
In short, I see more chances for the Ottomans to take Wien and then going on West than Al-Andalus going back to life. It's almost ASB.
Particularly with respect to the Ottomans ...
Thank you for your recognition of the validity of my rate to your scenario, but still, in my previous post, I analyzed the political possibilities stemming from such strategic scenario and also the conditions necessary for their development.
As already mentioned, after the Battle of Salado, there were no more likely to allow foreign aid survival of Granada independent state or for that matter, that would enable temporary or permanent renaissance...
Particularly with respect to the Ottomans explain, because they could not remain a credible military threat to Western Mediterranean and less to the Spanish coast, for which besides ... the Ottomans conquered Malta should facing the threat of Sicily and Naples, which were Aragonesas possessions to join the Crowns, they became Spanish, with an army deployed there to protect the Spanish Viceroyalty of Naples.
I only analyzes military action organized and persisted over time, by the Ottomans... for being the product of the policy of expansion in the Western Mediterranean and their attempts to achieve their strategic objectives.
The Ottomans conducted a major military and economic effort in finally failed attempts to conquer Malta... but for your theater needs to succeed and then to preserve and defend the Christian inevitable counterattack.
Then, if they can overcome this stage... should get the material and human resources necessary to defeat the combined fleets or separately from the Christian powers, to begin planning the invasion of Sicily and once they would face a campaign military unpredictable duration against the Spanish troops and local militias.
Because they could begin planning an attack in Iberian waters or in the same Iberian peninsula to try to support a group of rebels; therefore I reject the Ottomans as a viable option in this scenario, which in addition to taking care of other battlefronts in its other borders.
The Ottomans had other strategic priorities to involve all the resources of the empire total war against the Christian powers for an indefinite period on the western borders of the empire.
Regarding an African power possibility, any attempt to make to invade the Iberian Peninsula from Africa... should control the waters of the Strait, defeating the Spanish fleet and then besiege and conquer strongholds that prevented any landing of troops and their need refueling a hypothetical military campaign against Spain.
Regarding England, only say that in this historical period was far from military and naval power would become in the eighteenth century ... and should be restricted to financially support the Dutch rebels and enemies of Spain and fight against Spain, asymmetric warfare at sea and attack on the outskirts of the Spanish empire and / or when and where were weaker.
So that the desired scenario, which eventually would achieve the rebirth of Granada, first the Spanish State should disintegrate and / or fall into a state of total chaos... what is even more unlikely, at least to be achieved; without greater and earlier points of divergence, to OTL.
Thank you for your recognition of the validity of my rate to your scenario, but still, in my previous post, I analyzed the political possibilities stemming from such strategic scenario and also the conditions necessary for their development.
As already mentioned, after the Battle of Salado, there were no more likely to allow foreign aid survival of Granada independent state or for that matter, that would enable temporary or permanent renaissance...
Particularly with respect to the Ottomans explain, because they could not remain a credible military threat to Western Mediterranean and less to the Spanish coast, for which besides ... the Ottomans conquered Malta should facing the threat of Sicily and Naples, which were Aragonesas possessions to join the Crowns, they became Spanish, with an army deployed there to protect the Spanish Viceroyalty of Naples.
I only analyzes military action organized and persisted over time, by the Ottomans... for being the product of the policy of expansion in the Western Mediterranean and their attempts to achieve their strategic objectives.
The Ottomans conducted a major military and economic effort in finally failed attempts to conquer Malta... but for your theater needs to succeed and then to preserve and defend the Christian inevitable counterattack.
Then, if they can overcome this stage... should get the material and human resources necessary to defeat the combined fleets or separately from the Christian powers, to begin planning the invasion of Sicily and once they would face a campaign military unpredictable duration against the Spanish troops and local militias.
Because they could begin planning an attack in Iberian waters or in the same Iberian peninsula to try to support a group of rebels; therefore I reject the Ottomans as a viable option in this scenario, which in addition to taking care of other battlefronts in its other borders.
The Ottomans had other strategic priorities to involve all the resources of the empire total war against the Christian powers for an indefinite period on the western borders of the empire.
Regarding an African power possibility, any attempt to make to invade the Iberian Peninsula from Africa... should control the waters of the Strait, defeating the Spanish fleet and then besiege and conquer strongholds that prevented any landing of troops and their need refueling a hypothetical military campaign against Spain.
Regarding England, only say that in this historical period was far from military and naval power would become in the eighteenth century ... and should be restricted to financially support the Dutch rebels and enemies of Spain and fight against Spain, asymmetric warfare at sea and attack on the outskirts of the Spanish empire and / or when and where were weaker.
So that the desired scenario, which eventually would achieve the rebirth of Granada, first the Spanish State should disintegrate and / or fall into a state of total chaos... what is even more unlikely, at least to be achieved; without greater and earlier points of divergence, to OTL.
The battle of Alcacer Quibir (the battle of the three kings) may be an opportunity in regard to the Portuguese in 1578. The sultanate had some Ottoman support and an estimated 60,000-100,000 men were fielded against roughly 24,000 men raised up by the Portuguese. Of course, one issue would be the resulting Iberian Union after the death of Sebastian I and the end of the Aviz dynasty.
As I had previously stated, a naval force would be key. Despite the Ottomans assisting the sultanate, I sincerely doubt that they would be able to send more for an Iberian invasion. Not to mention (also previously noted) the battle of Lepanto broke the Ottoman navy and its ability to expand into the western Mediterranean.
Can Morocco seize Portuguese and Spanish controlled areas on the coast? It is possible but here is my question. How long before the Iberian Union decides to take back that coastline?