AHC: Schlieffen Plan Not Implemented

John Fredrick Parker

Donor
Assuming war with France and Russia breaks out roughly the same time as OTL, what is the latest PoD, what is the latest PoD that would allow Germany to not invade France through Belgium? Would an alternate strategy with a PoD following the assassination of Franz Ferdinand be possible?
 

rast

The so-called Schlieffen-Plan was the German bid for a short war. Any other strategy would lead to a long war scenario from the start.
So, someone has to realise in advance that the Schlieffen operation is not, or no longer, feasible. That, however, will lead to a totally different handling of the assassinantion crisis. The German leadership in this case would shrink away from risking war.
 

John Fredrick Parker

Donor
OK, how does this scenario work: Right before Kaiser Wilhelm goes on his three week vacation in Norway, following the Assassination of Franz Ferdinand, he decides to look into a few contingencies. A military person (not Moltke) explains the Schlieffen Plan, and the Kaiser, in a moment of clarity, asks if this wouldn't mean war with Britain; still uneasy, but not wanting the conversation to drag on, he asks the officer to draw up an alternate strategy where Germany is at least not the first to violate Belgian neutrality. This said, the call ends, and the Kaiser decides to go out to enjoy his vacation.

Now, the events in Europe play out as OTL, which is rendered plausible because the officer the Kaiser talked to draws up the alternate plans without communicating with any of the other high German officials (maybe because he thinks its just not that important, or maybe decides the other officials can't be trusted to follow the Kaiser's wishes, take your pick). Even Wilhelm manages to put said phone call out of his mind. Then, only after Europe has officially passed the point of no return (say shortly after Germany declares war), does this plan resurface, as the officer gives the drawn up plan to the Kaiser.

What do you think so far?

JoeyB2198 said:
Wasn't there an incident in which the Kaiser tried to stop it at the last moment?
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Yes, you're likely thinking of the Wily-Nicky Telegrams; Wilhelm also tried to get AH to agree to Serbia's council, then relented on their war plans, provided they only make a short attack on Belgrade.

This is why I think the OP is at least possible -- it's mainly about getting Germany to have an alternate war strategy on hand, then getting the Kaiser (as late as possible) to go with the other strategy when he's confronted with the actual war.
 

jahenders

Banned
Schlieffen Plan Reversed

I think it's at least theoretically possible that a few months before the war either Moltke (who had already tweaked the plan because he had serious concerns) or the Kaiser (worried about relations with his cousins, etc). Decides that, though they do need to take out an adversary quickly, it would be easier to take out Russia than France.

So, they flip the plan on it's head, send lots of divisions East, and just have a strong holding force (entrenched) near the French border. The Eastward mobilization might make Russia less supportive of Serbia. If not, when war starts:
1) German forces 3-4 times as strong in OTL annihilate Russian forces quickly, with some Austrian help.
2) France, unable (like Germany) to get Belgian permission to cross the frontier) either invades Belgium or must attack across a fairly narrow front. They do the latter and make gains, but are eventually stopped by the entrenched Germans.
3) With no one bothering Belgium and France not being attacked, England is slow to get involved.
4) Austria, not having significant issues against the Russians, more quickly defeats the Serbs and fares better against the Italians
5) The Turks, seeing Germany ready to annihilate the hated Russians, joins quickly and enthusiastically. They don't initially concentrate on British possessions, but push against the Caucuses and Crimea.
6) Russia, with all its forward field forces annihilated, Germans, Austrians, and Turks pressing, and short of allied success, sues for a quick peace, agreeing to some Austrian terms in the Balkans and surrendering some Polish territory to Germany. Germany and Austria agree because Germany has no wish to invaded deeper into Russia and Austria has seen the cracks in its system. Not having endured as long a war, Russia is better able to withstand the revolution that soon begins. The White-Red war is much longer and more even.
7) France, seeing slower progress than hoped, and with news of continual German victories against their Russian allies (meaning more troops likely headed West), sues for peace. They return to a status quo with Germany.

What do you think?
 

Zheng He

jahenders said:
I think it's at least theoretically possible that a few months before the war either Moltke (who had already tweaked the plan because he had serious concerns) or the Kaiser (worried about relations with his cousins, etc). Decides that, though they do need to take out an adversary quickly, it would be easier to take out Russia than France.

So, they flip the plan on it's head, send lots of divisions East, and just have a strong holding force (entrenched) near the French border. The Eastward mobilization might make Russia less supportive of Serbia. If not, when war starts:
1) German forces 3-4 times as strong in OTL annihilate Russian forces quickly, with some Austrian help.
2) France, unable (like Germany) to get Belgian permission to cross the frontier) either invades Belgium or must attack across a fairly narrow front. They do the latter and make gains, but are eventually stopped by the entrenched Germans.
3) With no one bothering Belgium and France not being attacked, England is slow to get involved.
4) Austria, not having significant issues against the Russians, more quickly defeats the Serbs and fares better against the Italians
5) The Turks, seeing Germany ready to annihilate the hated Russians, joins quickly and enthusiastically. They don't initially concentrate on British possessions, but push against the Caucuses and Crimea.
6) Russia, with all its forward field forces annihilated, Germans, Austrians, and Turks pressing, and short of allied success, sues for a quick peace, agreeing to some Austrian terms in the Balkans and surrendering some Polish territory to Germany. Germany and Austria agree because Germany has no wish to invaded deeper into Russia and Austria has seen the cracks in its system. Not having endured as long a war, Russia is better able to withstand the revolution that soon begins. The White-Red war is much longer and more even.
7) France, seeing slower progress than hoped, and with news of continual German victories against their Russian allies (meaning more troops likely headed West), sues for peace. They return to a status quo with Germany.

What do you think?
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Have you read this book?

http://www.amazon.com/Gray-Tide-Eas...qid=1413678971&sr=8-2&keywords=grey+tide+east
 

SirCliveWolfe

John Fredrick Parker said:
Yes, you're likely thinking of the Wily-Nicky Telegrams
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Probably off topic, but I find those telegrams so sad and a little poignant with what happened to Nicky and his family and the massive devastation that these messages could have avoided :(

jahenders said:
I think it's at least theoretically possible that a few months before the war either Moltke (who had already tweaked the plan because he had serious concerns) or the Kaiser (worried about relations with his cousins, etc). Decides that, though they do need to take out an adversary quickly, it would be easier to take out Russia than France.
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Or revert to the pre-Schlieffen plan which IIRC was 'Russia first'?

jahenders said:
1) German forces 3-4 times as strong in OTL annihilate Russian forces quickly, with some Austrian help.
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If this happens and it is communicated properly to Conrad does he still go Serbia first? I would hope not as the first battles will still go poorly for A-H if they do as OTL, but perhaps this can not be reversed

jahenders said:
2) France, unable (like Germany) to get Belgian permission to cross the frontier) either invades Belgium or must attack across a fairly narrow front. They do the latter and make gains, but are eventually stopped by the entrenched Germans.
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Would Britain be able to push the Belgium government to let French troops through... maybe not, what were the terms of the Treaty of London?

jahenders said:
3) With no one bothering Belgium and France not being attacked, England is slow to get involved.
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Does Britain get involved? France would also look like the aggressor as they would need to declare war on Germany (they had to declare so they could ask Belgium for entry to carry out Schlieffen)

jahenders said:
4) Austria, not having significant issues against the Russians, more quickly defeats the Serbs and fares better against the Italians
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Not sure, weren't the A-H losses early on enough that although the Russia offensive collapses quickly, it may still devastate the army ITTL?

jahenders said:
5) The Turks, seeing Germany ready to annihilate the hated Russians, joins quickly and enthusiastically. They don't initially concentrate on British possessions, but push against the Caucuses and Crimea.
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Not sure that the Ottoman plan would change significantly, however I have to admit that I do not know what their war plans called for IOTL let alone ITTL

John Fredrick Parker said:
The only thing giving me pause is rast's point that planning for a long war from the start would likely lead to a completely different handling of the assassination crisis, meaning likely no "Great War" in the first place. Other than that, I like it.
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Not sure really, was the pre-Schlieffen plan not Russia first? and from what I understand Germany felt that it needed a war soon due to the rapid improvements in Russia?

John Fredrick Parker said:
Assuming the Italians are even still fighting the CP TTL.
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If the Russian's do collapse as quickly as jahenders states, I'd assume no war in the Alps
 

Carl Clausewitz

What if German-Russian-French were one big alliance against Japan and the UK? This was an actually idea that both Wilhelm and Nicholas liked, but the Tsar's senior minister, Sergei Witte, was against it. Of course, Sergei Witte did argue against Russia entering into WW1 as it would destroy it. Maybe Witte was able to prevent Russia from entering WW1 or maybe a German-Russian-French alliance against the UK and the Japanese.
 

Ryan

Donor
Carl Clausewitz said:
What if German-Russian-French were one big alliance against Japan and the UK? This was an actually idea that both Wilhelm and Nicholas liked, but the Tsar's senior minister, Sergei Witte, was against it. Of course, Sergei Witte did argue against Russia entering into WW1 as it would destroy it. Maybe Witte was able to prevent Russia from entering WW1 or maybe a German-Russian-French alliance against the UK and the Japanese.
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you can't have ww1 without Russia as it was their declaration against Austria that meant that all the great powers got pulled in.

also the French wouldn't have sided with Germany, and I doubt Russia could side with Germany as long as they supported Austria (Balkans). and as far as an anti British/Japanese war goes, how are they meant to fight it? without a PoD really far back (which allows Europe to unite and be tension free) Europe won't be able to field a combined naval strength to outweigh Britain and japan.
 

sloreck

Key question is would the UK have gone to war with Germany had they not invaded through Belgium? - Absent this in August, 1914 the UK was neither treaty bound nor emotionally up for a general war. If no DOW in August 1914, would the UK have leaned heavily to France, and eventually jumped in? Maintaining balance on the continent was a core British policy, but if too long after 8/14, France may be too far gone.
 

John Fredrick Parker

Donor
SirCliveWolfe said:
Not sure really, was the pre-Schlieffen plan not Russia first? and from what I understand Germany felt that it needed a war soon due to the rapid improvements in Russia?
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That is another perspective. In general, I'm currently partial to the idea that war was very much avertable during the July Crisis; of course then, the flip side to that is, any change in strategy pre-war (like sticking w "Russia first") risks tipping the crisis away from war.
 

Zheng He

John Fredrick Parker said:
That is another perspective. In general, I'm currently partial to the idea that war was very much avertable during the July Crisis; of course then, the flip side to that is, any change in strategy pre-war (like sticking w "Russia first") risks tipping the crisis away from war.
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Seriously, read this book. It is basically the ATL you are trying to develop:

http://www.amazon.com/Gray-Tide-East-Andrew-Heller-ebook/dp/B00CXAC7VU/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1413678971&sr=8-2&keywords=grey+tide+east
 

StuG32

I think the best scenario for Germany would be to try to quickly take Poland, then go to the defensive on the east front and somehow persuade A-H to do the same. On the west front allow the French to bleed themselves silly with their belief in elan vital.
 

rast

Refute: The invasion of Belgium was a feature well known - and agreed to - by all German policy makers. The only difference was that under Schlieffen as CoGS there was no automatic violation of the Belgian border before mobilisation and deployment were complete, while Moltke (and Ludendorff) introduced the coup-de-main on Liège in 1908/09, moving the invasion to the 3rd day of mobilisation, about a fortnight earlier than originally envisaged.

The Kaiser never questioned that scheme, nor did Bethmann Hollweg. The question still is whether Bethmann (and the Kaiser) really knew that Moltke was going to preempt him by the early coup-de-main.
 

Zheng He

I always found that claim to be a bit odd.

However, the point of the book is that the Kaiser in a moment of strategic insight does halt the invasion of Belgium, fights a strictly defensive war against France and of course Plan 17 From Outerspace gets chewed to pieces and they go on the offensive against the Russians and they win a relatively short war.

The book is a little disappointment (it's kind of short) but it deals with the basic issue. The sequel is really lame...
 

Carl Schwamberger

Derek Jackson said:
How late could the German Military have developed at least alternative strategies?
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Several months. The hard part is rewriting all the mobilizations schedules including railroad time tables for thousands of trains. Equally difficult in planning would be recalculating locations for all the artillery ammunitions and other supply dumps. then there is the matter of preparing any physical requirements, like new magazines, railroad sidings or switches, warehouses, needed to support the logistics side of the mobilization in the east. The German army had changed substantially in the previous few years and the older plans for mobilizing in the east were obsolete.

Keep in mind all this rescheduling was done without any sort of computer assistance. Everything hand to done on hand made spread sheets a flow charts. Testing was done with elaborate map exercises. Think of big rooms with lots of staff officers moving flags around the maps and filling out work sheets showing quantities on railways or piled up in depots.

Something could certainly be cobbled together faster, but there would be increasing friction in inverse proportion to the time for planning.
 

Carl Schwamberger

sloreck said:
Key question is would the UK have gone to war with Germany had they not invaded through Belgium? - Absent this in August, 1914 the UK was neither treaty bound nor emotionally up for a general war. If no DOW in August 1914, would the UK have leaned heavily to France, and eventually jumped in? Maintaining balance on the continent was a core British policy, but if too long after 8/14, France may be too far gone.
Click to expand...

This question revolves around exactly who is in the British government at the critical moment. The fundamental policy of Britain was to prevent any single power from dominating the continent. How far they were prepared to go to execute this policy depended on the individual.
 
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