August Wind

London August 2 1914

Foreign Security Sir Edward Grey looked at the dispatch in disbelief. The three German Armies that had massing on the German-Belgian frontier were packing up and going to somewhere else in Germany. But where were they going? The east perhaps? But to Sir Grey it still didn’t make any since. It was an open secret for years that when war came to Europe that Germany would march through Belgium to out flank the French in the opening days of the war. Now at the moment war have arrived Germany was throwing out her plans and flying by the seat of her pants which was very un-German like.

It also destroyed the years of work Sir Grey and the other Francophobes in parliament. The thought of ties to the continent would deeply unpopular with the British public. Prime Minister Asquith knew of the unofficial work of the Francophiles in his cabinet and had done nothing to stop it. Asquith himself didn’t want war and had made it clear he wouldn’t take a divided nation into war. However Grey had an answer, The Treaty of London signed in 1839. In the treaty the British had with French, Prussians, and Dutch had agreed that if Belgium was invaded they were bounded to come to the aid of Belgium. The German Empire had taken over the role of Prussia in 1871.

With the open secret of Germany planning on invading Belgium to defeat, Grey had planned on marching into parliament and saying the British were duty bound to come to the defense of Belgium. All of the planning of the Francophile block was depended on a German invasion of Belgium. With even Kaiser Wilhelm going so far to tell King Albert of Belgium he should stand aside when the German invasion came if he wished to remain in power. With such threats it seem to be full proof way to get the British Empire when war came to Europe.

Everything leading up to the dispatch Grey now held in his hands pointed to the Germans would come crashing through Belgium like the Huns. As the July Crisis unfolded the German Armies started massing on the German-Belgian frontier which all pointed to a German invasion. However now it seemed that be wrong with three German Armies moving back into Germany to points unknown. He wonder what Prince Lichnowsky who Grey had met with yesterday had spent back to Germany to get the Kaiser to change his mind about the invasion of Belgium. Lichnowsky was known to be a member of the German noble class that favorer peace to war, but what could he had said to get Germany to call off its planned invasion.

However whatever Lichnowsky had said, if had left Grey holding the bag. Without a German invasion the British couldn’t find a casus belli for war with the German Empire for the foreseeable future and Grey knew it. Everyone in the British Isles would turn their focus back on the Irish Home Rule Bill which was threating to lead the British down the path to civil war. Ulster was hell bended to stay out of this home rule bill and it was pointing to it was willing to use force to do so.

As Grey put down the dispatch he stood up and looked out the window in his office. Across Europe the lights were going out and would not be turned back on for a long time. The British Empire the most powerful nation on the face the Earth was going to be forced to watch from the sidelines as he could not find a way to stop Germany from destroying the cornerstone of British Foreign Policy which was to make sure no one nation in Europe from taking control of Europe. As the lights were going out, Grey wondered if the Sun was also setting on British Foreign Policy as well.

<*>

I had this idea for a long time, but how just now decided to do something with it. I got the idea by the e-book Gray Tide in the East by Andrew Heller. He uses the Kaiser’s order to halt the invasion of Luxembourg and Belgium as his POD, which I have done as well. Even through his book was a good read I had a number of disagreements with his butterflies. Even more so with his two follow on works that came out after his first. In August Wind I plan to go down the road which I think would been travelled instead of the one Mister Heller took in his book. However this is Alternate History and everyone is entitled to their own thoughts. These are mine.

Should I keep on? Your thoughts?
 
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I like it.

For me, if the UK had stay out of WW1. It would have lead to a mass showdown between the British and German Empires later now.
 
London August 2 1914

Foreign Security Sir Edward Grey looked at the dispatch in disbelief. The three German Armies that had massing on the German-Belgian frontier were packing up and going to somewhere else in Germany. But where were they going? The east perhaps? But to Sir Grey it still didn’t make any since. It was an open secret for years that when war came to Europe that Germany would march through Belgium to out flank the French in the opening days of the war. Now at the moment war have arrived Germany was throwing out her plans and flying by the seat of her pants which was very un-German like.

It also destroyed the years of work Sir Grey and the other Francophobes in parliament. The thought of ties to the continent would deeply unpopular with the British public. Prime Minister Asquith knew of the unofficial work of the Francophobes in his cabinet and had done nothing to stop it. Asquith himself didn’t want war and had made it clear he wouldn’t take a divided nation into war. However Grey had an answer, The Treaty of London signed in 1839. In the treaty the British had with French, Prussians, and Dutch had agreed that if Belgium was invaded they were bounded to come to the aid of Belgium. The German Empire had taken over the role of Prussia in 1871.

With the open secret of Germany planning on invading Belgium to defeat, Grey had planned on marching into parliament and saying the British were duty bound to come to the defense of Belgium. All of the planning of the Francophobe block was depended on a German invasion of Belgium. With even Kaiser Wilhelm going so far to tell King Albert of Belgium he should stand aside when the German invasion came if he wished to remain in power. With such threats it seem to be full proof way to get the British Empire when war came to Europe.

Everything leading up to the dispatch Grey now held in his hands pointed to the Germans would come crashing through Belgium like the Huns. As the July Crisis unfolded the German Armies started massing on the German-Belgian frontier which all pointed to a German invasion. However now it seemed that be wrong with three German Armies moving back into Germany to points unknown. He wonder what Prince Lichnowsky who Grey had met with yesterday had spent back to Germany to get the Kaiser to change his mind about the invasion of Belgium. Lichnowsky was known to be a member of the German noble class that favorer peace to war, but what could he had said to get Germany to call off its planned invasion.

However whatever Lichnowsky had said, if had left Grey holding the bag. Without a German invasion the British couldn’t find a casus belli for war with the German Empire for the foreseeable future and Grey knew it. Everyone in the British Isles would turn their focus back on the Irish Home Rule Bill which was threating to lead the British down the path to civil war. Ulster was hell bended to stay out of this home rule bill and it was pointing to it was willing to use force to do so.

As Grey put down the dispatch he stood up and looked out the window in his office. Across Europe the lights were going out and would not be turned back on for a long time. The British Empire the most powerful nation on the face the Earth was going to be forced to watch from the sidelines as he could not find a way to stop Germany from destroying the cornerstone of British Foreign Policy which was to make sure no one nation in Europe from taking control of Europe. As the lights were going out, Grey wondered if the Sun was also setting on British Foreign Policy as well.

<*>

I had this idea for a long time, but how just now decided to do something with it. I got the idea by the e-book Gray Tide in the East by Andrew Heller. He uses the Kaiser’s order to halt the invasion of Luxembourg and Belgium as his POD, which I have done as well. Even through his book was a good read I had a number of disagreements with his butterflies. Even more so with his two follow on works that came out after his first. In August Wind I plan to go down the road which I think would been travelled instead of the one Mister Heller took in his book. However this is Alternate History and everyone is entitled to their own thoughts. These are mine.

Should I keep on? Your thoughts?

Right a couple of things

First of all - I love the idea of the Kaiser backing down over Belgium and Britain not going to war.

Secondly you have to consider what this means to the actual area that Germany can fight over - ie the Franco - German Boarder which is slightly less than half the length of the OTL Western Front (and a chunk of it very hilly) and on the French Side very heavily fortified ie Verdun Etc

Here is a map circa 1914 to give you an idea

http://www.nzhistory.net.nz/files/styles/fullsize/public/France_1000.jpg?itok=LQXLaQaI

This seriously limits German options and even with an advantage in troop numbers I seriously doubt that they could achieve a break through like the one achieved in 1870.

Thirdly - In 1914 The British Army was quite small by European standards and did not deploy a largely untrained continental army until effectively 1916. So the lack of the old contemptible's, Brilliant and well trained though they may have been is not going to be a major issue especially when one considers point 2 above.

There was after all a reason why Germany attacked through Belgium in the first place.
 
I had this idea for a long time, but how just now decided to do something with it. I got the idea by the e-book Gray Tide in the East by Andrew Heller. He uses the Kaiser’s order to halt the invasion of Luxembourg and Belgium as his POD, which I have done as well. Even through his book was a good read I had a number of disagreements with his butterflies. Even more so with his two follow on works that came out after his first. In August Wind I plan to go down the road which I think would been travelled instead of the one Mister Heller took in his book. However this is Alternate History and everyone is entitled to their own thoughts. These are mine.

Should I keep on? Your thoughts?

Yes you should. Regarding the book, well i read all three and even chatted with the author (he briefly stayed at CF.net...but clashed with our old member Snake regarding Russia:rolleyes:) and i pointed out that while the UK can remain neutral, this doesn't mean that will give carte blanche to Germany and there are a lot of measure that any British goverment can take to hinder German effort and help the French and Russian.

Edit: well, yes without UK in the fray, the possibility that Italy will honor the Triple (almost happened in OTL...until someone pointed at the King that the army was not ready) a possibility that Austria will not really like it, as it mean that she need to divide the spoil with the Italians.
 
Right a couple of things

First of all - I love the idea of the Kaiser backing down over Belgium and Britain not going to war.

Secondly you have to consider what this means to the actual area that Germany can fight over - ie the Franco - German Boarder which is slightly less than half the length of the OTL Western Front (and a chunk of it very hilly) and on the French Side very heavily fortified ie Verdun Etc

Here is a map circa 1914 to give you an idea

http://www.nzhistory.net.nz/files/styles/fullsize/public/France_1000.jpg?itok=LQXLaQaI

This seriously limits German options and even with an advantage in troop numbers I seriously doubt that they could achieve a break through like the one achieved in 1870.

Thirdly - In 1914 The British Army was quite small by European standards and did not deploy a largely untrained continental army until effectively 1916. So the lack of the old contemptible's, Brilliant and well trained though they may have been is not going to be a major issue especially when one considers point 2 above.

There was after all a reason why Germany attacked through Belgium in the first place.
Who says those armies are going to assault through the Vosges Mountains? I know the reasons the Germans when through the Low Countries in 1914 and again 1940. Its sound military logic if piss poor foreign policy. Really piss poor as in three dollar vodka is a better idea than doing that. However there are other fronts....

Yes you should. Regarding the book, well i read all three and even chatted with the author (he briefly stayed at CF.net...but clashed with our old member Snake regarding Russia:rolleyes:) and i pointed out that while the UK can remain neutral, this doesn't mean that will give carte blanche to Germany and there are a lot of measure that any British goverment can take to hinder German effort and help the French and Russian.

Edit: well, yes without UK in the fray, the possibility that Italy will honor the Triple (almost happened in OTL...until someone pointed at the King that the army was not ready) a possibility that Austria will not really like it, as it mean that she need to divide the spoil with the Italians.

Yeah I talked to him as well when he was on CF.net. That was one thing I didn't like in the the first book as it seemed the British did nothing to help the French and British which seems very unlikely. One thing I plan to do different here along with what happened in Asia in the first book.

As to Italy I have plans for them.
 
Yeah I talked to him as well when he was on CF.net. That was one thing I didn't like in the the first book as it seemed the British did nothing to help the French and British which seems very unlikely. One thing I plan to do different here along with what happened in Asia in the first book.

Agree

As to Italy I have plans for them.

Hope it will not end as in the book...with Italy for all her trouble getting only Albania, while Germany and A-h get the 'All-you can eat buffet':rolleyes:.
Original plan was to keep in Italy, just enough troops to guard the Alps and send the bulk in Germany to help in the attack. In the mediterrean the Italian and Austrian Navy (plus whatever the German can spare) are meant to fight the MN (collaboration between Rome and Vienna will not be forthcoming as peacetime attempt had demonstrated.)

If more A-h and the CP are more succesfull Romania can easily become a target as Austria (or better Hungary) had some mire towards walacchia and in any case want to get rid of the various pretender at his territory.
 
Good start to the timeline. I think it's important to keep in mind that Britain, while not having the pretext of Belgium, will still be led by those who wish to fight France. Belgium united the Cabinet and thus Parliament in a declaration of war, without it you may see a more fractured political leadership still entering the fray, perhaps later in 1914. If the Germans send ships through the Channel, for instance, that will be a declaration of war.

And I think you meant Francophile, not Francophobe for Grey et al. ;)
 
Who says those armies are going to assault through the Vosges Mountains? I know the reasons the Germans when through the Low Countries in 1914 and again 1940. Its sound military logic if piss poor foreign policy. Really piss poor as in three dollar vodka is a better idea than doing that. However there are other fronts....

So contain France and attack more elsewhere? ie Russia or Italy depending on which side they chose to throw in with!

After all the issues that affect a german attack on so short a front also affect the French!

Got to admit not entirely sure of Belgiums leanings during this time (most accounts obviously focus on the fact that they were attacked without provocation) but whats the chances of them joining France after the declaration of War?

IE Allowing the French Army to outflank the main lines of defence - a sort of reverse of what actually happened.

Of course with out Belgium being attacked there is still no main driver to unite the British People and allowing a UK Declaration of War.
 
Cook wrote some time ago an excellent post on a hypthetical of what would happen if Belgium allowed German troop acces - which I feel is also applicable to the question of what would happen if Germany didn't attack Belgium at all:

The British cabinet had met in the morning the day before, on August the 1st to discuss the crisis and what to do in the event of war. This was before the news had arrived from Russia that the Germans had declared war, at this stage as far as the British knew only Austria and Serbia were at war. Churchill, First Lord of the Admiralty, was for immediate intervention alongside the French. Prime Minister Asquith and Grey, the Foreign Secretary were also in favour of intervention if France was attacked, even if Belgian neutrality was not violated but the rest of the cabinet was opposed to British intervention unless Belgium was invaded. The only member of the cabinet who was opposed to British intervention in the war under any circumstances was the Lord Privy Seal, John Morley, who threatened to resign if Britain declared war. Since he threatened to resign regularly none of the others were greatly worried by his statement.

The cabinet met again the next morning, by which time the news from St Petersburg and Berlin had been received but prior to German ultimatum to Belgium being delivered. At the meeting the cabinet was again divided. Asquith, Grey and Churchill were now in favour of immediate intervention, Grey threatening to resign if the cabinet opted for a declaration of neutrality. Apart from Crewe, Secretary of State for India, the rest were still opposed to declaring war if Belgium neutrality was not violated. During the cabinet meeting a message arrived from Bonar Law, the Conservative Party leader saying:

‘It would be fatal to the honour and security of the United Kingdom to hesitate in supporting France and Russia at the present juncture; and we offer our unhesitating support to the Government in any measures they may consider necessary for that object.’

Many Liberal Party backbenchers were opposed to intervention and there was the very real possibility of a split in the Liberal party over the decision to go to war if Belgian neutrality was not violated. In those circumstances the most likely outcome would have been a government of national unity combining Asquith’s supporters in the Liberals with Law’s Conservatives. So the most likely outcome of Belgium passively allowing German troops to transit the country is that Britain would still intervene, but with a new coalition government.
 
SMS Goeben August 5 1914

Konteradmiral Wilhelm Souchon was standing on the bridge of his flagship. The Goeben was in need of a refit, badly. With it was on a combat mission against the French Republic. He had been given orders by Großadmiral von Tirpitz to hunt down the French transports that were moving XIX Corp from French North Africa to France. If they failed to find the transports by the 6th they were to make to Constantinople. Unknown to Souchon, von Tirpitz was hedging his bets at the moment.

Von Tirpitz knew that the Kaiser at the last second had cancelled the invasion of Belgium in an effort to keep the British out of the war and so far it seemed to be working. However an alliance had been formed with the Ottoman Empire to attack Russia in the near future, but they wanted to make sure that the British didn’t seize their battleships that were being built in the British Empire. The SMS Goeben was offered up as a replacement. However he wanted a chance to redeem the honor of the German Navy after he had been force to set in port during the War of 1870-71. Sinking the transports of XIX seemed to promise that chance.

However Souchon had a problem besides the fact his ship needed a refit and couldn’t make her top speed of 28 knots, only making 24knots at best. His squadron had been spotted by the British yesterday. He had lost them during the night but he knew they had to be out there looking for him. He was fully right on that count as the bulk of the British Mediterranean Fleet under Admiral Miline was deployed. For the British they had their own problems as well.

The actions of former First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill had brought down the Asquith Government. He had called out the reserves of the Royal Navy without the full support the British cabinet. This led to a heated cabinet meeting between the members of the Asquith Government which brought the Asquith’s Government. At the moment Asquith was trying to form a coalition government with Bonar Law’s Tories to keep from having to call a snap shot election as Europe was jumping off a cliff. This left Miline without clear orders at the moment as Asquith was trying to save his premiership at the moment. Miline was still on the hunt for Souchon but was unsure if he was to do anything if he found him.

Currently Souchon was nearing Philippeville Algeria which was one of the embarkation ports for the XIX Corp which was currently being loaded up to be moved to France to take part of Plan XVII which was getting ready to start. However the France with pre-war agreements with the British had moved their whole navy into the Mediterranean. However Paris was in term oil as the British were still trying to figure out what they were going to do. This left their Atlantic and English Channel Coast stripped all forces and open to attack. Unknown to the French however was the Kaiser had ordered no ships of his navy were to sail into the English Channel for fear of forcing the British to join this war as well. But the French didn’t know this and they were trying to figure out which ships they needed to move back to the Atlantic to cover their Atlantic Coast ports.

Souchon looked through his looking glass. Even through the French Atlantic Coast was necked as a jay bird at the moment, the same couldn’t be said of the French North Africa. Lowing the scope Souchon speaking with his command voice, “Battle Stations! Prepare for surface action.” All three cruisers of the cruisers of the Leon Gambetta class was screening Philippeville at the moment as XIX Corp was being loaded up. Battlecruisers such as the Goeben had made the armored cruisers of the Leon Gambetta obsolete. Souchon was going to make that point right now.
 
Didn't the Goeben have the Breslua as an escort as well? Though she's little more then a destroyer on Steroids she has torpedoes which she could use to make a run and dash attack on the transports while the Goeben has the Armored Cruisers occupied.
 
Didn't the Goeben have the Breslua as an escort as well? Though she's little more then a destroyer on Steroids she has torpedoes which she could use to make a run and dash attack on the transports while the Goeben has the Armored Cruisers occupied.
The Breslau was sent after Bone, Algeria OTL and linked back up with the Goeben later. However with the changes ITL she is still heading to Bone instead of trying to link back up with the Goeben.
 
The Breslau was sent after Bone, Algeria OTL and linked back up with the Goeben later. However with the changes ITL she is still heading to Bone instead of trying to link back up with the Goeben.

What the hell was she supposed to do when arriving at Bone? She's not really suited for shore bombardment and her guns certainly are the best ones for the job.
 
What the hell was she supposed to do when arriving at Bone? She's not really suited for shore bombardment and her guns certainly are the best ones for the job.
That's were her orders per OTL. It seems the French had no coastal artillery in North Africa and even those 105mm rounds will sink merchant ship.
 
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