If the French Empire fought on in 1940, consequences in Asia?

In OTL, Japan, seeking to isolate China from the south, occupied northern Indochina in September 1940. Japan then supported Thailand during its short war with French Indochina in Jan-Feb 1940. Finally, seeking to control the territory and its economy and to expand its options for advancing further south, Japan occupied the remainder of French Indochina in July 1940.

In each case, the Japanese relied on military demonstrations and the threat of war to gain the acquiesence of French colonial authorities in Indochina.

These authorities in OTL were aligned with the Vichy regime which had submitted to Germany and broken its alliance with Britain. This government far from being able to count on British cooperation, was engaged in limited military hostilities with the British.

Arguably this made the Vichy authorities fairly vulnerable to Japanese intimidation and coercion.

But what if there was no Vichy regime, but instead, a German occupied metropolitan France, and a French-government in exile, based out of Algiers or Corsica that remained at war with Germany and in close alliance with Britain. In effect, the entire French Empire (save the homeland) is under "Free French" control.

The Japanese, in threatening "Free French" Indochina with war, would likely have to assume that carrying out threats against Indochina would lead also to war with Britain at the same time.

In these circumstances, Japan would:

A) not occupy any of Indochina in in 1940-41

or

B) occupy some or all of Indochina in 1940-41

I don't think they would, unless, for some inexplicable reason, authorities in FIC side with the puppet government the Nazis are bound to install in metropolitan France in short order.

No occupation of FIC means no embargo, meaning Japan can and will keep bleeding out in China for the foreseeable future.

The FFO original team (see my signature) had a lot of fun with French Indochina.
Since Vichy never exists in the first place, FIC keep fighting the Japanese and this has all kind of butterflies over Singapore and the Philipines (Mc Arthur !)

There is even a battle in Dien Bien Phu where the French hold their ground against the Japanese with the help of local forces led by a man call Giap.

The common concensus in these FFO threads is that by preventling the Indo China occupation a Pacific war is much delayed or does not happen.

Since Vichy never exists in the first place, FIC keep fighting the Japanese and this has all kind of butterflies over Singapore and the Philipines (Mc Arthur !)

There is even a battle in Dien Bien Phu where the French hold their ground against the Japanese with the help of local forces led by a man call Giap

Click to expand...

sounds cool - way cool!

wonder if Franco-Thai War goes away?

or does Thailand become a stalking horse for Imperial Japan, able to keep MORE territory?

Thaddeus - interesting question on Thailand. That figures in to what I have to say below.

I think I would have to answer my own poll for going for option C) - Japan probably would have refrained from occupying any of Indochina clear through 1940 but might have considered doing an occupation after the signature of the Soviet-Japanese neutrality pact in April 1941. It would limit itself prior to that point to attempts to intimidate the French into shutting transport links to China. The defeats the Italians were suffering by spring 1941 would probably add to deterrence.

Even after the pact and the later invasion of the USSR, the near certainty of prompt war with Britain the US and the Dutch probably deters Japanese advances into Indochina. The memory of Nomonhan and demonstrated Soviet resistance capability against Germany and lack of decisive or high-value targets probably also deters Japan from "striking north" against the Soviets.

There's a chance deterrence may fail if Japan grew exasperated enough and the French stubbornly kept supply lines open to China during this time period of June 1940-June 1941. One possibility is that Japan views the preoccupation of the Soviet Union with the German invasion in summer 1941 as the long over-due opportunity to get revenge on the French and British in particular by striking south.

This could make for an interesting campaign. It sorts of telescopes all of Japanese aggression into a single roll of the dice, occurring in late summer 1941. Japan probably assumes the west is indivisible and attacks Indochina, the Philippines and Borneo simultaneously with the aim of marching on as far as Singapore, Malaya, DEI and Burma.

I think that successful Japanese occupation of French Indochina would be pretty much assured, especially occupation of all Vietnam. The Japanese just have alot more air, land and naval power they can bring to bear to overwhelm French defenses and the WAllies have much less to spare.

But, a fighting French Indochina makes for an interesting campaign that tilts in the Allies' overall favor in some ways.

The Chinese forces in Guangxi and Yunnan may be able to provide some back-up to the French in northern Vietnam. Many more of the French Indochina forces have the possibility of at least making a fighting retreat to China or Burma. There's a chance that French, Chinese and native forces make final Japanese occupation and pacification of Laos a mess.

Having to fight for the occupation of Indochina (rather than getting its ports and airfields bloodlessly in advance) at the beginning of the war increases the amount of time between the DoW and the point when Japan is able to assault Malaya, Singapore, Burma, Sumatra and possibly even Java, giving the British in particular more warning. It's likely that at least northern Burma never falls in this ATL.

Because of their basing in the Mandates, Taiwan and Hainan prior to the start of the war I don't think the Japanese offensive impetus in the eastern DEI, Papua, or Philippines would be slowed at all, but the initial power available to be applied against the western DEI, Malaya and Burma would be much less.

The only way the Japanese could compensate for starting the big fight with less territory in hand would be if they have somehow worked out a deal with Thailand to set up bases there before the fighting starts. I think that's unlikely, but perhaps not impossible.

I see that a majority of responses point to Japan not daring to move on Indochina. But a substantial minority think otherwise. How do you think the Japanese move would go down, how strongly would the French resist and what would be the responses of third parties if Japan did make a move?

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