WI: The battle of Dogger Bank leads to open war between Britain and Russia?

CaekDaemon · Oct 9, 2015

So, during the Russo-Japanese War and after the Russian Far Eastern Fleet was defeated, Tsar Nicholas II had his admirals transfer 45 ships from the Russian Baltic Fleet, intending to send them around the world to the far east and bring the war to a quick conclusion. It didn't really go as planned, and still near the start of their journey the Russian fleet opened fire on a group of British fishing trawlers, managing to damage four of them and sink one.

This very nearly started a war, despite how fast the Russian government was to apologize, and the Russian fleet was followed by a group of 28 battleships as it sailed through the Bay of Biscay and onto the Portuguese coast.

But what if it did spill over into open conflict? Perhaps some of the Oroyol's five hundred shells managed to hit the trawler fleet and sink a few more, or maybe the Kamchatka accidentally fires on a nearby British warship or a merchantman whilst travelling past Africa.

However it occurs, is it possible for the British and the Russian empires to end up at war with one another, and if so, what happens next?

Glimmer · Oct 9, 2015

Its pretty ASB for the Russians to hit anything other than their own ships

Napoleon IV · Oct 9, 2015

Russia would probably back down and accept whatever conditions were needed. The French would probably not get involved because they know they can't defeat Britain in a war, and Russia wouldn't want another war when they are struggling to defeat the Japanese (who at the time were regarded as a second rate power).

LordKalvert · Oct 9, 2015

For such an incident to led to war, the parties have to wish war. The British are happy to avoid a war since they have their Entente with the French

In any event, Britain can do little damage to Russia. They can sink the ships but those ships will be sunk at Tsushima anyway

Unless Britain can ally with the Germans- who show no signs of wanting to join a war- there is nothing that Britain can do to Russia. Landings are impossible as the Russians can move far more troops by rail while the British cannot enforce a blockade with a land border to Germany and Austria open.

The best they can do is arm the Japanese but the Japanese are more nuisance- the absolute worse they can do to Russia is force the Russians to blow the Lake Baikal tunnels

So the British run around looking for targets to hit and can't find any- the Russians move into Persia, Afghanistan and Tibet and threaten India. They offer to give it back if the British make the Japanese leave.

They both agree to make Japan pay for the war

BooNZ · Oct 9, 2015

LordKalvert said:
For such an incident to led to war, the parties have to wish war. The British are happy to avoid a war since they have their Entente with the French

In any event, Britain can do little damage to Russia. They can sink the ships but those ships will be sunk at Tsushima anyway

Unless Britain can ally with the Germans- who show no signs of wanting to join a war- there is nothing that Britain can do to Russia. Landings are impossible as the Russians can move far more troops by rail while the British cannot enforce a blockade with a land border to Germany and Austria open.

The best they can do is arm the Japanese but the Japanese are more nuisance- the absolute worse they can do to Russia is force the Russians to blow the Lake Baikal tunnels

So the British run around looking for targets to hit and can't find any- the Russians move into Persia, Afghanistan and Tibet and threaten India. They offer to give it back if the British make the Japanese leave.

They both agree to make Japan pay for the war

Letter from the British to the Japanese

Dear Orientals - you need money - we have the strongest economy in the world - lets make a deal - Russia will be picking up the tab...

Strain on Russian economy, military and dignity would continue...

Letter from British to Ottomans

Dear Ottomans - British intelligence has discovered plot of Russians to Seize/ Force the Straights - Royal Navy and marines have been dispatched to provide you with assistance...

The Ottoman protocols would close the straights to all traffic to prevent recce from either Russians or British - downside to Russia is about 40% of its international trade is lost, while some British sailors get sunburnt.

Granted, while even a full British blockade would struggle to impact militarily on Russia, it would certainly cripple its struggling economy. The Russians do not have the existing infrastructure to bring its full military land forces to Persia, Afghanistan, Tibet and/or India, so if Russia chose to pursue such conflicts, those would be very expensive, low intensity and with relatively modest numbers of troops. Britain happens to have the largest economy in the world and a small army of professional soldiers - might need to recruit a few more of those Nepalese with knives...

Ultimately such a conflict would be won by bankers, not bullets...

Richter von Manthofen · Oct 9, 2015

Lets not discuss if it COUDL happen, assume it did

THe REAL question is: How do the French react.

Do they side with Russia (Then Germany and Britain will be on good terms)

Do they stay neutral or are they even siding with the Brits (unlikely)? - Now the Franco Russian alliance is broken.

Ist a win-win Situation for Germany.

LordKalvert · Oct 9, 2015

BooNZ said:
Letter from the British to the Japanese

Dear Orientals - you need money - we have the strongest economy in the world - lets make a deal - Russia will be picking up the tab...

Strain on Russian economy, military and dignity would continue...

Letter from British to Ottomans

Dear Ottomans - British intelligence has discovered plot of Russians to Seize/ Force the Straights - Royal Navy and marines have been dispatched to provide you with assistance...

The Ottoman protocols would close the straights to all traffic to prevent recce from either Russians or British - downside to Russia is about 40% of its international trade is lost, while some British sailors get sunburnt.

Granted, while even a full British blockade would struggle to impact militarily on Russia, it would certainly cripple its struggling economy. The Russians do not have the existing infrastructure to bring its full military land forces to Persia, Afghanistan, Tibet and/or India, so if Russia chose to pursue such conflicts, those would be very expensive, low intensity and with relatively modest numbers of troops. Britain happens to have the largest economy in the world and a small army of professional soldiers - might need to recruit a few more of those Nepalese with knives...

Ultimately such a conflict would be won by bankers, not bullets...

Silly- as mentioned how are the Japanese, even with British money going to get to a point that they can actually threaten something vital to the Russians? Answer- they can't and you know it. They have to go five thousand miles before they reach something of interest to the Empire

Ottomans- even sillier. The Sultan wants nothing to do with the British (something about trying to depose him, occupying Cyprus, aiding the Greek rebels, seizing Egypt and encouraging the Armenian rebellion- there are others)

Even if the Ottomans close the straits, the land frontier remains open. Russian trade might be a little more expensive- the best you got

Full military power into Persia, Afghanistan or Tibet? Of course not. Then again, the Russians don't need to send their full power do they?

Tehran would fall within two weeks. The Persians knew this and so did the British. Tibet? Well about ten thousand armed men should do the trick (you probably don't know about the Dali Lama seeking refuge in Russia)

All in all- the British would act on their own conclusions not BooNZs and those conclusions were-

That a land campaign against Russia was hopeless (as it was against any continental power)

That control over the Baltic was of no value

That blockade of Russia was impossible if her land frontiers were still open

That forcing the straits against the Ottomans was suicidal without assurances of French neutrality. The Gallopoli campaign would show how stupid it was even with French and Russian backing

See Britain and the last Tsar for the basics

LordKalvert · Oct 9, 2015

Richter von Manthofen said:
Lets not discuss if it COUDL happen, assume it did

THe REAL question is: How do the French react.

Do they side with Russia (Then Germany and Britain will be on good terms)

Do they stay neutral or are they even siding with the Brits (unlikely)? - Now the Franco Russian alliance is broken.

Ist a win-win Situation for Germany.

Quite agree the Germans are coming out ahead. Willie always counted on an Anglo-French or Anglo-Russian war

Now while Britain could do great damage to France (and the French knew it- which is why they settled their differences) Britain is much harder pressed to do damage to Russia and vice versa

The Far East is vulnerable but what does it get you? Vladivostok isn't that integral to the Russians- they just linked it to the rest of the country around 1903

Yes, you could cut Russian seaborne traffic at the Sound and at the Straits but so what? If the Germans keep the land frontier open, which they would do as a long war is in their interests, what are you accomplishing? Not much

Britain could do little to Germany without Russia and France closing the borders and doing the actually fighting either

Force the straits? We know how well that worked in WWI with the French and the Russians helping. Even if you make it through, then what?

Its not going to be a war like the Crimean. The Russians have the railroads andany landing is going to be defeated

The Russians do have the advantage along the Northern Indian Border. They will strike terror in the British public but unless they can foment revolution, its not going to seriously threaten India

The two quarrel so much because they really are safe from each other

BooNZ · Oct 9, 2015

LordKalvert said:
Silly- as mentioned how are the Japanese, even with British money going to get to a point that they can actually threaten something vital to the Russians? Answer- they can't and you know it. They have to go five thousand miles before they reach something of interest to the Empire

Are you suggesting that Russia would abandon its aspirations in Asia? No, they would continue to pour scarce resources into a conflict where logistics would bleed its economy and military dry. If Russia abandons its Asian aspirations and a blue water port, after bleeding itself dry - then the UK retains or even enhances its dominant position in Asia.

LordKalvert said:
Ottomans- even sillier. The Sultan wants nothing to do with the British (something about trying to depose him, occupying Cyprus, aiding the Greek rebels, seizing Egypt and encouraging the Armenian rebellion- there are others)

The Sultan's opinion of the British and Russians is largely academic, but in order to secure the defence of the Straights, wandering eyes would need to be prevented from identifying the disposition of the defences (minefields etc). Accordingly, closure of the straights (even to prevent British agents) was a prudent precaution. Even if the Sultan was fundamentally ill disposed towards the British, it was no secret the Russians coveted control of the Straights.

LordKalvert said:
Even if the Ottomans close the straits, the land frontier remains open. Russian trade might be a little more expensive- the best you got

Not 'the best', but a jaw breaker for the price of a postage stamp. Russian infrastructure increased dramatically before 1914, but demonstrated its inability to support industry when NOTHING could be exported in WW1. Suggesting a grossly inferior network, supporting multiple war fronts, could happily cope with such a dramatic re-orientation is dubious, at best.

LordKalvert said:
Full military power into Persia, Afghanistan or Tibet? Of course not. Then again, the Russians don't need to send their full power do they?

Tehran would fall within two weeks. The Persians knew this and so did the British. Tibet? Well about ten thousand armed men should do the trick (you probably don't know about the Dali Lama seeking refuge in Russia).

Two weeks? - channelling Cheney again? Even the British could match 10K - I vaguely recall 100K was an estimate of potential Russian strength in the great game.

LordKalvert said:
All in all- the British would act on their own conclusions not BooNZs and those conclusions were-

That a land campaign against Russia was hopeless (as it was against any continental power)

Yep - the Russians demonstrated that to the Japanese - no wait...

LordKalvert said:
That control over the Baltic was of no value

Good to know?

LordKalvert said:
That blockade of Russia was impossible if her land frontiers were still open

Yes, I stated a blockade would not be effective on the military, but it would seriously hurt Russians economically. OTL Russia never defeated Japan on the battlefield.

LordKalvert said:
That forcing the straits against the Ottomans was suicidal without assurances of French neutrality. The Gallopoli campaign would show how stupid it was even with French and Russian backing

Agreed, but that is simply not necessary for the British. However, if the Russians got desperate...

BooNZ · Oct 9, 2015

Richter von Manthofen said:
Lets not discuss if it COUDL happen, assume it did

THe REAL question is: How do the French react.

Do they side with Russia (Then Germany and Britain will be on good terms)

Do they stay neutral or are they even siding with the Brits (unlikely)? - Now the Franco Russian alliance is broken.

Ist a win-win Situation for Germany.

I doubt Germans would care how the French react i.e. if the French side with Russia, superficially, so will Germany (that is until they get a better offer from Britain)

Richter von Manthofen · Oct 9, 2015

France and to a lesser degree Russia is seen as the enemy - Britain is a Nation the Germans want as an ally, so they will definitely side with their (potential) ally.
If OTOH France does not support ist ally (Russia) this will be seen as an opportunity to break up the Franco Russian alliance.

Siding with France and Russia is nothing that offers any benefit to Germany.

BooNZ · Oct 9, 2015

Richter von Manthofen said:
France and to a lesser degree Russia is seen as the enemy - Britain is a Nation the Germans want as an ally, so they will definitely side with their (potential) ally.
If OTOH France does not support ist ally (Russia) this will be seen as an opportunity to break up the Franco Russian alliance.

Siding with France and Russia is nothing that offers any benefit to Germany.

Agreed, but German diplomacy was obsessed about getting the appropriate price from Britain for an alliance.

Richter von Manthofen · Oct 9, 2015

BooNZ said:
Agreed, but German diplomacy was obsessed about getting the appropriate price from Britain for an alliance.

What would be that Price (in your opinion)

fishingfred · Oct 9, 2015

I don’t think open war is a likely result from the Dogger Bank incident. Neither Britain nor Russia wanted/gained from it.
There is though the possibility of a different outcome: OTL the Russians had to avoid the Suez canal, pay a bit of money and say sorry.
In an ATL it is quite possible that, with more pressure on the British government, the Russian fleet could be interned in the Channel or at Vigo and then be forced back to St. Petersburg.

The British Empire then goes on to fund the Japanese more than OTL. Japan now knows by November 1904, that they don’t have to plan for the 2nd Pacific squadron.
Earlier landings in Sakhalin and later the Maritime Provinces are likely if Russia refuses to make peace (incl. Southern Manchuria and Port Arthur) before early 1905.

All in all Russia will blame Britain for its loss in East Asia (no Tsushima) and I doubt there will be agreement between them by 1907 (maybe later though).
Depending on the level of French support to either Britain or Russia the other one will look to Germany for support.

Also interesting: 1905 Revolution with the Baltic fleet in harbour

fishingfred · Oct 9, 2015

Richter von Manthofen said:
France and to a lesser degree Russia is seen as the enemy - Britain is a Nation the Germans want as an ally, so they will definitely side with their (potential) ally.
If OTOH France does not support ist ally (Russia) this will be seen as an opportunity to break up the Franco Russian alliance.

Siding with France and Russia is nothing that offers any benefit to Germany.

OTL disagrees with you. Germany was very much interested in spliting Russia from France.

Catsmate · Oct 9, 2015

awats124 said:
Its pretty ASB for the Russians to hit anything other than their own ships

Well they did sink a fishing boat and kill three men. Not bad for around 1,000 shells expended.

BooNZ said:
<snip>
The Ottoman protocols would close the straights to all traffic to prevent recce from either Russians or British - downside to Russia is about 40% of its international trade is lost, while some British sailors get sunburnt.

Not if the British had....zinc oxide.

Personally I think it'd take a pretty major divergence from history to trigger a war, and even that'd probably fizzle out fairly quickly. Unless someone wanted to start a war of course; I did a scenario for the DWAITAS RPG based on a small group tampering with history based on that premise. Worsen the incident, including sinking a Russian ship or two to ramp up their paranoia, and keep feeding the fire with subsequent incidents.

The man who'd come to think of himself as Gandalf Grey relaxed in his armchair and sighed. It was good to be, well if not exactly 'home' at least relaxed, comfortable and in a reasonable facsimile of it. He poured a cup of tea from the service one of the club's stewards had left and contemplated the warm muffins. He'd breakfasted well, as he preferred, but didn't he deserve a treat? Sorting out that business with the Earth Reptiles down by Canvey had been tricker than he'd expected and he was tired; it'd been difficult to turn off his brain last night and get some needed sleep. At least the weather was tolerably pleasant for October, if damp and dull.

He looked at the stack of newspapers and started, then shook his head. Of course, that business at Dogger Bank! He'd forgotten about it in his anxiety about the Sea Devils - Earth Reptiles he mentally corrected himself. The Russian Baltic fleet had shelled some fishing boats. He accessed the implant in his brain and 'read' a summary of the incident, Five dead, two of them Russians, in a crossfire between their own ships, and a fishing boat sunk. Luckily Balfour and his cabinet had cooled things off. The Russo-Japanese war had led to enough tensions.

He looked at the headlines in the 'papers and had an instant of blinding panic; he headlines were wrong!. The Times led with a condemnation of the Russians' actions, but it reported at least fifty dead, eleven boats sunk or missing and two Russian ships sunk; the Aurora and the Knyaz Suvorov.

Oh dear, it looked like he wouldn't be getting a chance to relax after all...

The Dogger Bank Divergence.

BooNZ · Oct 9, 2015

Richter von Manthofen said:
What would be that Price (in your opinion)

Tricky! With the benefit of hindsight - a peppercorn would have been ample consideration. At the time, the concern of Germany was that it would get sucked into a continental war on behalf of Britain. Britain would have needed to produce significant colonial concessions to appease Germany, but I doubt even Germany knew what those concessions were.

Post Bismarck, German diplomacy was horrific - generally Willy gets the blame, but career diplomats were probably no better (if not worse).

Richter von Manthofen · Oct 9, 2015

fishingfred said:
OTL disagrees with you. Germany was very much interested in spliting Russia from France.

Thats what I said...

fishingfred · Oct 9, 2015

Richter von Manthofen said:
Thats what I said...

True, sorry kinda got hung up on your first sentence.
What I wanted to point out was, that in 1905 Russia was the prefered ally over Britain by Bülow and Wilhelm.

LordKalvert · Oct 9, 2015

Richter von Manthofen said:
France and to a lesser degree Russia is seen as the enemy - Britain is a Nation the Germans want as an ally, so they will definitely side with their (potential) ally.
If OTOH France does not support ist ally (Russia) this will be seen as an opportunity to break up the Franco Russian alliance.

Siding with France and Russia is nothing that offers any benefit to Germany.

Except we know that the Kaiser had no interest in war at all and, rather than see the Tsar as a potential enemy, offered him an Alliance at Bjorko