Cold War continues to today
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FasterThanRaito
Kicked
Easy. Prevent the coup that stopped the signing of the New Union Treaty. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics is replaced by the Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics -but at least the USSR is still around in some form to continue to challenge USA.
You probably need to get rid of Stalin. But butterflies are enormous.
By the 1980s the Soviet economy was driven by energy and starting in 1980ish oil prices started to decline. It was the primary source of dollars for the Soviet economy, which they needed to buy grain and other imports. As to the rest of their economy, 20% of their economy was going to defense spending and only 20% to consumer production. Their economy was rife with corruption, alcoholism, absenteeism, and inefficiency. Their technology was lagging the West and lacked the means to catch up. They couldnt feed their people. And they were stuck in Afghanistan.
Gorbachev really just happened to be the last guy there. This was the result of decades of bad policies and mismanagement. Perhaps in the mid 60s you can do something if you get rid of Brezhnev. But Brezhnev was a reaction to Khrushchev. And Khrushchev played the game best after Stalin's death. And frankly, Stalin purged or sufficiently cowered anybody with any real skill or initiative. So, we're back to Stalin.
By the 1980s the Soviet economy was driven by energy and starting in 1980ish oil prices started to decline. It was the primary source of dollars for the Soviet economy, which they needed to buy grain and other imports. As to the rest of their economy, 20% of their economy was going to defense spending and only 20% to consumer production. Their economy was rife with corruption, alcoholism, absenteeism, and inefficiency. Their technology was lagging the West and lacked the means to catch up. They couldnt feed their people. And they were stuck in Afghanistan.
Gorbachev really just happened to be the last guy there. This was the result of decades of bad policies and mismanagement. Perhaps in the mid 60s you can do something if you get rid of Brezhnev. But Brezhnev was a reaction to Khrushchev. And Khrushchev played the game best after Stalin's death. And frankly, Stalin purged or sufficiently cowered anybody with any real skill or initiative. So, we're back to Stalin.
They were going bankrupt. Bankrupt systems that are supposedly superior to the alternative dont tend to last too long.
Lucius Verus
Banned
Generally you need the Soviets to reduce military spending and introduce some "non-capitalist" reforms to prevent it from committing economic suicide. In other words adopt some parts of the capitalist system in all but name.
Avoid the invasion of Afghanistan and Reagan as President.
Afghanistan was a huge economic and psychological blow.
Reagan built on that by supporting Solidarity, and lowering the price of oil, not to mention a huge diplomatic push.
Cutting military spending would have been far more possible for any reformer at that time, if Reagan was not there massively building up the US forces.
Any economic reforms would have been easier with more money from oil coming in.
Afghanistan was a huge economic and psychological blow.
Reagan built on that by supporting Solidarity, and lowering the price of oil, not to mention a huge diplomatic push.
Cutting military spending would have been far more possible for any reformer at that time, if Reagan was not there massively building up the US forces.
Any economic reforms would have been easier with more money from oil coming in.
I'll repost what I wrote on the Warsaw Pact thread, since it's essentially the same question...
Post-1968, the only way to keep the Warsaw Pact going is to basically make it clear that brute force will continue to be applied to maintain the regimes.
Gorbachev, for starters, has to be avoided at all costs: permitting criticism, even moderate criticism, at a time when he's trying to pull down the old Stalinist economic order, was suicidal for the whole system. So if you want Gorbachev, you're going to have to have a POD sometime in the 1960s.
Instead, you'd be looking at avoiding OTL perestroika, and instead increasing the efficiency of distribution networks (this was a real Soviet problem - they could grow the stuff, but distributing it was a mess). Kill off Brezhnev in 1976 or so, so the corruption doesn't become overbearing (stagnation is fine - it's the corruption that's the real killer). Avoid Afghanistan at all costs too, and don't bankroll Third World liberation movements: they're a drain on resources, and don't matter in the overall scheme of things. Slowly ease back on the gigantic military-industrial complex - and pay off the inevitable structural opposition with bribes.
In its most simple form: no Afghanistan in 1979, and have Yuri Andropov maintain better health (if you can have him live until the mid-1990s, excellent - by this point, you're now in a position to cosy up to Deng's China, trading oil and gas for cheap consumer goods).
Post-1968, the only way to keep the Warsaw Pact going is to basically make it clear that brute force will continue to be applied to maintain the regimes.
Gorbachev, for starters, has to be avoided at all costs: permitting criticism, even moderate criticism, at a time when he's trying to pull down the old Stalinist economic order, was suicidal for the whole system. So if you want Gorbachev, you're going to have to have a POD sometime in the 1960s.
Instead, you'd be looking at avoiding OTL perestroika, and instead increasing the efficiency of distribution networks (this was a real Soviet problem - they could grow the stuff, but distributing it was a mess). Kill off Brezhnev in 1976 or so, so the corruption doesn't become overbearing (stagnation is fine - it's the corruption that's the real killer). Avoid Afghanistan at all costs too, and don't bankroll Third World liberation movements: they're a drain on resources, and don't matter in the overall scheme of things. Slowly ease back on the gigantic military-industrial complex - and pay off the inevitable structural opposition with bribes.
In its most simple form: no Afghanistan in 1979, and have Yuri Andropov maintain better health (if you can have him live until the mid-1990s, excellent - by this point, you're now in a position to cosy up to Deng's China, trading oil and gas for cheap consumer goods).
I would, however, like to point out that the "imported grain" was used as animal feed. The Soviets could certainly feed their own people (the issue was distribution not production).
Also, Reagan had bugger all to do with anything. MAD had been achieved. The Soviets had no obligation to match his build up at all.
Also, Reagan had bugger all to do with anything. MAD had been achieved. The Soviets had no obligation to match his build up at all.
Have the assassination attempt on Brezhnev in 1969 succeed, and he is replaced by Alexei Kosygin. Economic reforms follow such as decentralisation and liberalisation of the economy, which prevents the Era of Stagnation. Growing wealth is enough to keep people in the republics from rebelling, though it's likely that East Germany would still fall, and Poland, Czechoslovakia, and the like with it. However, the Soviet Union could survive with an economic system similar to that of China, but with a relationship with Europe and the US similar to right now this instant; still being bellicose, still stirring things up. Have a pretty heavy nationalist come to power at some point, perhaps the reactionary Old Guard trying to reclaim their power, and we see even more aggression that ensures the Cold War keeps on burning
Lucius Verus
Banned
I would say that for an industrialized nation to depend so heavily on oil exports is a sign of overall weakness than anything. Unless your country lacks industry/efficiency you shouldn't have to rely on commodities.
On 13th May 1987 Mathias Rust's Cessna 172 is shot down over Estonia and the young pilot killed.
While this caused issues between the East and the West - it did not really cause a diplomatic incident and is quickly forgotten - especially as it emerges that Rust deliberately set out to enter CCCP air space.
In TTL the failures of the Military to stop the plane from reaching Moscow despite numerous opportunities allowed Gorbachev to enact the biggest purge of the military since Stalin and those he got rid of were those most opposed to his reforms.
No Rast, No Purge, less effective reforms from 1989 - very possible knock on effects include the INF treaty not being signed and even the Berlin Wall not coming down.
Google Soviet economy or soviet economic data. There are a few good reports out there discussing the dire nature of the Soviet economy in the early 80s. And there are plenty of books discussing the topic available at local libraries and on Amazon. Your point about grain is noted, thanks, but it doesnt change the point that whole economy was teetering on the brink of collapse.
No, the Soviet system of the early 1980s was stable (anyone at Brezhnev's funeral who claimed that the country wouldn't exist in a decade would be regarded as insane). It was in a state of long slow decline, having long ago given up hope of outcompeting the West, but it wasn't about to immediately collapse. Enough political force from the top, and the system keeps pottering along (compare modern-day Zimbabwe, which isn't a very nice system either, but has yet to see regime collapse).
It was perestroika that wrecked the Soviet economy, and sent its production levels off a cliff, together with glasnost that allowed political dissent to come to the surface at exactly the wrong time. That's why you need to avoid Gorbachev. Avoid Gorbachev and Afghanistan, have an authoritarian leader like Andropov bent on achieving greater efficiency, and there is no reason the Soviets can't last until the mid-1990s, when, as I said, Chinese opportunities start to open up.
It was the price of oil that wrecked the Soviet economy. I'd actually be quite interest in evidence or sources to the contrary.
The two sources I have the come to mind are "The System" by George Arbatov and "A failed Empire" by Vladisav Zubok. And then there is a decent report attached that I have skimmed - there may actually be points I missed that counter my thesis. And there are several others that I dont have at my finger tips.