I have an idea for the 1994 midterms. There is no Gingrich, let's say Cheney or Michel lead the Republicans. Due to a 3% swing to the Democrats each party gets 217 representatives wit Bernie Sanders as the independent. How will the speaker be chosen? Who will be the next Speaker? What f?
1994 midterms idea
- Thread starter Pericles
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This is an interesting scenario, since North Carolina Democrat Charlie Rose was planning on challenging Tom Foley for the Speakership. He ended up running against Dick Gephardt for Minority Leader but got clobbered. If he still challenges Foley, than it's possible there won't be a majority on the first ballot for Speaker and goes to a second ballot; a situation in which Rose would probably stand down. Still, it would be pretty interesting.
Sanders would vote with the Democrats. But I don't think not having Gingrich would make a difference. Polls showed that few voters had even heard of the Contract with America, and those who did were not particularly impressed by it: http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/mark-mellman/8503-debunking-the-myths-of-the-contract
Yes, I thought maybe a 3% swing to the Democrats but maybe that is too much.
Can you please explain to me how the House voting to decide the Speaker works?
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More than one state legislature has had an ambitious Democrat or Republican betray their party in such razor-thin situations. Speaker of the House Charlie Rose, AKA Majority Whip Cheney's puppet.
While that is true, Gingrich did effectively nationalize the election, and appealed specifically to Perot voters.
In theory that is possible, but in all likelihood the Democrats will play it safe and choose their Majority Leader rather then risk getting involved in a constitutional battle. The Republicans would jump to denounce them as criminals and spend as much time as possible dragging them around the courts. They might even risk losing the Speakership if this looks to be a stunt to some conservative Democrats.
This is correct, but if you take a quick look you will see that at no time in the history of the House have they elected a Speaker who was not from among their ranks. I doubt Mr. Foley is so prodigious as to cause a break in a long-standing tradition which dates back to the days of Frederick Muhlenberg, the first to hold the office.
There's no Constitutional issue to debate as the law is clear that the Speaker need not be a sitting Member of the House. Foley was a least respected on both sides of the aisle. In any case, I was tossing this out there as a possibility. Strictly speaking, given the conditions presented, a 217-217 House plus Sanders would likely have resulted in a Gephardt Speakership.
I just found the idea of Foley losing his race yet remaining Speaker to be intriguing.
Which scenario is most likely?
A) Foley is reelected and faces a challenge from Rose. On the second ballot Rose withdraws and endorses Foley. There a few abstentations on both sides but the Democrats are united and Foley is reelected.
B) Rose does withdraw on the second ballot but about 5-10 conservative Democrats vote for Cheney making him Speaker.
I think B, do you agree?
A) Foley is reelected and faces a challenge from Rose. On the second ballot Rose withdraws and endorses Foley. There a few abstentations on both sides but the Democrats are united and Foley is reelected.
B) Rose does withdraw on the second ballot but about 5-10 conservative Democrats vote for Cheney making him Speaker.
I think B, do you agree?