French Neutrality in World War II

Montgomerie Ward · Jan 30, 2015

What if, when the Nazis invaded Poland, the French, having no desire to participate in another devastating war, do not declare war on Germany; remaining neutral and isolating Britain to fight the Nazis and Italians by themselves? In this timeline, when Germany blitzkriegs Benelux in 1940, France eventually sign a Non-Aggression Pact with them; one of the conditions being, cessation of Indochina to Japan. France signs another Non-Aggression Pact with Italy, probably ending with Italy taking a chunk of French North Africa. Otherwise, France's neutrality is respected by the Western Allies and the Axis, forcing the Allies to probably perform D-Day in Norway.

Mizerias · Jan 31, 2015

Just a few years later

I think that this scenario is quite well known. In fact, Hitler didn't think that France and the UK would declare war as he thought they would use the same neutrality as with Czechoslovakia. The thing is that there was no way that France could remain neutral at that time since it was Germany's plan to invade France circa 1945, where they considered that their war machine would have been 100% operational. Therefore, things were only brought a few years ahead, Germany was not as strong as it thought it would be and the war was what it was. I think that if the Allies didn't respond to the Polish invasion and waited for a German first move, the war could have been longer and bloodier.

Napoleon IV · Jan 31, 2015

Not going to happen. France isn't going to give up Indochina and North Africa without a fight. Remember that no one realized that the invasion would be over within 6 weeks. Beside, France followed Britain's lead, if Britain goes to war then France will go to war.

Nickyr · Jan 31, 2015

Napoleon IV said:
Not going to happen. France isn't going to give up Indochina and North Africa without a fight. Remember that no one realized that the invasion would be over within 6 weeks. Beside, France followed Britain's lead, if Britain goes to war then France will go to war.

Pretty much the above, what would motivate the French to throw in the towel, as both they and the British no longer trusted Hitler. They knew war was coming, regardless of neutrality.

To loose colonial possessions would be politically un-viable, same as Britain giving up Malta to avoid a fight with Italy in some regards.

pompejus · Jan 31, 2015

If France (and Britain, because Britain won't do anything without France) does not declare war after Hitler attacks Poland there are two options.
1: Hitler attacks France anyway, since Hitler does not care about neutrality (just ask Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg, etc).

2: Hitler decides that the democracies of Western Europe are no threat, because they want to avoid war at any cost and attacks the Soviet Union

Snaut · Jan 31, 2015

I don't think France would be able to get away without fighting Germany at this point. The desire to do away with a potential second front threatening his war with the USSR, the vast amount of plunder to be obtained from France and the desire for revenge might cause Hitler to attack it anyway before long. If Poland reacts to such open betrayal by surrendering quickly, it could even mean a German attack on France in 1939.

MattII · Jan 31, 2015

Hm, so Britain goes it alone. Well if Germany respects French (and by extension Belgian and Dutch) neutrality then it gets kind of difficult for them since they don't have the bomber force to hurt Britain, and basing U-boats out of Wilhelmshaven means more time travelling and less on patrol. It also means a smaller military since they can't gut the low countries or France for resources. Possibly butterflys the Pacific War, since France won't be distracted in Europe.

Zheng He · Jan 31, 2015

Also, now there is no reason for Italy to join the war or does Hitler try to convince Il Duce to join so they can go after the British through the Mediterranean?

user23123 · Jan 31, 2015

297* said:
In this timeline, when Germany blitzkriegs Benelux in 1940,

If Gemany blitz Benelux then the Non-Aggression Pact is off,

297* said:
France eventually sign a Non-Aggression Pact with them; one of the conditions being, cessation of Indochina to Japan. France signs another Non-Aggression Pact with Italy, probably ending with Italy taking a chunk of French North Africa.

I don't think there will be a need for France to give any thing to Italy since while Italy was a member of the Axis,she remained out of the Polish campain and only joined the French one to the end.Japan was didn't join the Axis until 27th Sep, 1940 which was after the fall of France
Not mention that France will not accept a non-agression pact where she has to give up some of her empire,at lest not with out a fight.

297* said:
Otherwise, France's neutrality is respected by the Western Allies and the Axis, forcing the Allies to probably perform D-Day in Norway.

Not necessary since most likely,the end result of a France neutrality will be a waiting game between France and Germany,to see how strikes first,or where dose Germany strikes next west or east.

Zheng He said:
Also, now there is no reason for Italy to join the war or does Hitler try to convince Il Duce to join so they can go after the British through the Mediterranean?

Hitler did really what Il Duce messing with his war,but a point where Italy could have join if it sill happen is the invasion of Yugoslavia.

And also a France neutrally has the neutrality of bridging the neutrally of Bulgaria,Hungary and Romania.

I want to learn · Jan 31, 2015

I can't believe the thread has gotten this far without mention of Alsace-Lorraine. That's going to be a sticking point between France and a revanchist Germany.

pompejus · Jan 31, 2015

user23123 said:
If Gemany blitz Benelux then the Non-Aggression Pact is off,

Germany won't Blitz the benelux if they aren't going to attack France. OTL they were actualy considering leaving the Netherlands alone and the onl thing they want from Belgium is Eupan-Malmedy, which they probably can get by bullying Belgium into handing it over, since Belgium realises that France won't help them.

CthulhuFhtagn · Jan 31, 2015

If France is remaining neutral, why is it giving up colonies like a defeated power?

Anaxagoras · Jan 31, 2015

I think it's extremely unlikely for France to be neutral. Having said that, I don't think Britain would declare war on Germany if the French were not also willing to do so.

juanml82 · Jan 31, 2015

Assuming France remains neutral, Britain either also remains neutral or lacks the means to attack successfully attack Germany.
Two questions, though:
Do the British and French declare war on the USSR because of Finland?
What does Hitler do on spring 1940? If he attacks the USSR Stalin should be waiting for him and both the German and Soviet armies are in a worse shape than in OTL. Nothing prevents both countries from importing needed supplies, though.
However, if he attacks the USSR, he's leaving a potential enemy (France) close to the critical industrial centers of the Rühr, which would only be guarded by second rate, ill trained and equipped troops, because the best will be going east. Can he trust France won't attack when the Germans are deep into the USSR? Or will he choose to attack France anyways?

pompejus · Jan 31, 2015

juanml82 said:
Can he trust France won't attack when the Germans are deep into the USSR?

Well, Hitler had little respect for the Western democracies and if France (and thus Britain) won't declare war over Poland, it is very likely that Hitler thinks that they are too cowardly to declare war. He probably wouldn't be far off in this case. I think it is likely that France would sit out the war hoping the Nazi's and communists kill each other.

If France does not go to war over Poland, it is pretty unlikely they would go to war over anything else (except possibly if Germany attacks Belgium).

Alex1guy · Jan 31, 2015

CthulhuFhtagn said:
If France is remaining neutral, why is it giving up colonies like a defeated power?

Yeah why on Earth would France, one of the premier military powers of Europe allow it's colonies to just be handed away?

marathag · Jan 31, 2015

Alex1guy said:
Yeah why on Earth would France, one of the premier military powers of Europe allow it's colonies to just be handed away?

Yes.

I would expect that Germany would have to offer quite a bit for a non-aggression pact, not the other way around.

With no war in 1939, France is free to keep improving the light fortifications north of the Maginot Line for another year, and with no war, no mass mobilization so France has more workers to do rearming.