WI Gaius Ceasar Lived

This guy, grandson of Augustus. What happens? Does he become Emperor? If so, how does he rule, and more interestingly, how does that affect the position (e.g. does it become more like a monarchy sooner)? And how is Roman history changed?

John Fredrick Parker said:

This guy, grandson of Augustus. What happens? Does he become Emperor? If so, how does he rule, and more interestingly, how does that affect the position (e.g. does it become more like a monarchy sooner)? And how is Roman history changed?

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Well, if he'd survived (and he might well have been murdered by Livia, if Tacitus is to be believed) then he would have been very unlike Tiberius. Gaius Caesar had been brought up by Augustus to succeed him, so we would have seen a logical continuation of the policies of Augustus. Hmmm. I'm not sure there would have been too much of a difference in terms of frontier policy. Internally however there would have been a difference. Tiberius never really wanted to be Emperor and was known as being a gloomy and reclusive person, which led to the rise of Sejanus. With Gaius on the throne instead then things are very different. He'd stay in Rome and not semi-retire to Capri, which led to all kinds of wild rumours swirling around Tiberius. There'd certainly be no Sejanus, so no Praetorian Guard as we know it. And also no Caligula!

Cymraeg said:

There'd certainly be no Sejanus, so no Praetorian Guard as we know it. And also no Caligula!

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That'll make Rome itself a lot more calm in the first century or so of Ceasarian rule. On that subject, it bears remembering that OTL, the Imperial title did not pass to the biological son or grandson of the predecessor for 65 years after Augustus' death -- the Ceasarian dynasty of OTL was something between a functioning monarchy (like the Antonines) and something more like the Crisis of the Second Century. TTL, though, it would function like a proper dynasty from the beginning; would that change even hold, or would old republicans push back? If the tradition took early, that combined with the calm in Rome itself would have major effects on how the Roman Constitution actually functioned, and how the "Emperor" ruled in it.

On a smaller subject -- how would the Julio-Claudian family itself be affected? One detail I imagine is that Julia, Gaius' mother, either would not be sent into exile (with her son and heir still around) or, if she was still sent, would be recalled when her son came to power.

This brings up an interesting scenario actually. With Gaius and Lucius Caesar and Drusus dead, Augustus' only real fall back man (on just about all important military matters really) was Tiberius. This meant that when Tiberius was recalled to deal with the Great Illyrian Revolt, he had to put someone like Varrus in command in Germania.

But with Gaius Caesar alive, this may change things. Tiberius will likely still be recalled when the Great Illyrian Revolt breaks out . But Augustus may appoint Gaius Caesar to run affairs in Germania as Tiberius's replacement(he would be 26 at this point and of course already having some experience in Armenia). Assuming he was not as incompetent militarily as Varrus and listened to his advisors, this could prevent a massacre in Teutoburg entirely. That in itself has implications for Rome's foreign policy towards Germania.

Why wouldn't he just appoint Gaius to deal with Illyria?

John Fredrick Parker said:

Why wouldn't he just appoint Gaius to deal with Illyria?

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He needs someone with the experience and ability of Tiberius. The revolt was extremely serious to the point where towards its end, it had drained so much manpower that Augustus was conscripting slaves (this, btw, is really the reason IMO why the Romans panicked after Teutoburg and didn't replace the 3 lost legions-they had already exhausted their manpower reserves in the Illyrian Revolt). This is a situation really tailor made for Tiberius and I don't think Augustus is going to take any chances.

slydessertfox said:

This brings up an interesting scenario actually. With Gaius and Lucius Caesar and Drusus dead, Augustus' only real fall back man (on just about all important military matters really) was Tiberius. This meant that when Tiberius was recalled to deal with the Great Illyrian Revolt, he had to put someone like Varrus in command in Germania.

But with Gaius Caesar alive, this may change things. Tiberius will likely still be recalled when the Great Illyrian Revolt breaks out . But Augustus may appoint Gaius Caesar to run affairs in Germania as Tiberius's replacement(he would be 26 at this point and of course already having some experience in Armenia). Assuming he was not as incompetent militarily as Varrus and listened to his advisors, this could prevent a massacre in Teutoburg entirely. That in itself has implications for Rome's foreign policy towards Germania.

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It's amazing how one premature death can completely change the course of history.

Ultimate Paragon said:

It's amazing how one premature death can completely change the course of history.

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Even more amazing how everyone associated with Augustus and Tiberius seemed to suffer from Premature Death Syndrome.

There were few survivors.

Kome said:

Even more amazing how everyone associated with Augustus and Tiberius seemed to suffer from Premature Death Syndrome.

There were few survivors.

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Yeah. Drusus, Marcellus, Gaius and Lucius Caesar, Agrippa, Agrippa Posthumus, Germanicus...

Before his death, young Gaius Caesar was already ... a failure.

When he came back from his mission in Syria, Gaius Caesar just wanted ... To withdraw from politics.

It seems that Augustus did not know how to raise his own children, maybe because he lacked a father figure, having been orphan when less than 4 years old. His blood daughter was far from being a model of education. His 2 adoptive grandsons were probably raised in a manner where they did develop Neither military valor, nor political shrewdness.

So you'll have to change many more things than just having Gaius Caesar live longer. Or he might quickly suffer à mysterious death if he became a weak emperor.

slydessertfox said:

Yeah. Drusus, Marcellus, Gaius and Lucius Caesar, Agrippa, Agrippa Posthumus, Germanicus...

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Agrippa died 52 years old, which by the time was not a premature death.

Drusus died from septicemia due to an injury.

Natural mortality was high in antiquity. One can't take Suetonius' caricature and gossip for historical facts.

Matteo said:

Before his death, young Gaius Caesar was already ... a failure.

When he came back from his mission in Syria, Gaius Caesar just wanted ... To withdraw from politics.

It seems that Augustus did not know how to raise his own children, maybe because he lacked a father figure, having been orphan when less than 4 years old. His blood daughter was far from being a model of education. His 2 adoptive grandsons were probably raised in a manner where they did develop Neither military valor, nor political shrewdness.

So you'll have to change many more things than just having Gaius Caesar live longer. Or he might quickly suffer à mysterious death if he became a weak emperor.

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Do you have any evidence for this? Not trying to say you are wrong or anything, just genuinely interested. I've heard that Gaius was not very interested in politics, but neither was Tiberius for that matter. Remember he withdrew entirely to Rhodes at one point.

And given how he was leading troops in Armenia when he died, it's a safe bet he was still willing to at least carry on his duties.

Matteo said:

Agrippa died 52 years old, which by the time was not a premature death.

Drusus died from septicemia due to an injury.

Natural mortality was high in antiquity. One can't take Suetonius' caricature and gossip for historical facts.

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I was thinking more sudden unexpected death than young I guess. I wasn't implying anything by it, just some interesting bad luck Augustus had.

slydessertfox said:

He needs someone with the experience and ability of Tiberius. The revolt was extremely serious to the point where towards its end, it had drained so much manpower that Augustus was conscripting slaves (this, btw, is really the reason IMO why the Romans panicked after Teutoburg and didn't replace the 3 lost legions-they had already exhausted their manpower reserves in the Illyrian Revolt). This is a situation really tailor made for Tiberius and I don't think Augustus is going to take any chances.

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OK, so Tiberius puts down the rebellion in Illyria as OTL, so the question is how Gaius handles Teutenborg Forrest. I'm not sure, given his age, if he's likely to be more competent than Varrus though...

slydessertfox said:

Do you have any evidence for this? Not trying to say you are wrong or anything, just genuinely interested. I've heard that Gaius was not very interested in politics, but neither was Tiberius for that matter. Remember he withdrew entirely to Rhodes at one point.

And given how he was leading troops in Armenia when he died, it's a safe bet he was still willing to at least carry on his duties.


I was thinking more sudden unexpected death than young I guess. I wasn't implying anything by it, just some interesting bad luck Augustus had.

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Biographies of Augustus.

John Fredrick Parker said:

OK, so Tiberius puts down the rebellion in Illyria as OTL, so the question is how Gaius handles Teutenborg Forrest. I'm not sure, given his age, if he's likely to be more competent than Varrus though...

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Well Varrus' faults were in him being too trusting of his Germanic friends and not listening to his advisors, particularly Ariminius' uncle Segestes, of the numerous warning signs that (and in Segestes' case, outright explaining what Ariminius intended to do) as to Ariminius' intentions. I don't think it's that much of a stretch to assume Gaius isn't going to be as willfully blind as Varrus, and of course butterflies (and the fact that he's a different person) means he might not even befriend Ariminius to begin with. Also take into consideration that due to butterflies Teutoburg may not happen on the same day, and thus the ground may be dry and firm under the feet of the Roman soldiers, making it far, far more likely they are successfully able to fight their way out with a significant portion of their army intact if they do get drawn into the trap.

Matteo said:

Biographies of Augustus.

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Yes, I'm aware of that much, I was referring to something more specific (like which). IIRC, Everitt mentions Gaius was not that interested in politics, but again, neither was Tiberius and Tiberius had also actually completely withdrawan from public life to Rhodes at one point. I don't see how Gaius' dislike of being a public figure would be any worse than Tiberius.

slydessertfox said:

Well Varrus' faults were in him being too trusting of his Germanic friends and not listening to his advisors, particularly Ariminius' uncle Segestes, of the numerous warning signs that (and in Segestes' case, outright explaining what Ariminius intended to do) as to Ariminius' intentions. I don't think it's that much of a stretch to assume Gaius isn't going to be as willfully blind as Varrus, and of course butterflies (and the fact that he's a different person) means he might not even befriend Ariminius to begin with. Also take into consideration that due to butterflies Teutoburg may not happen on the same day, and thus the ground may be dry and firm under the feet of the Roman soldiers, making it far, far more likely they are successfully able to fight their way out with a significant portion of their army intact if they do get drawn into the trap.

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Alright, I'm convinced: Gaius Ceasar living means there's a very real chance the massive defeat at Teutenborg Forrest doesn't happen; much changes for the Roman Empire as a result.

John Fredrick Parker said:

... so the question is how Gaius handles Teutenborg Forrest. I'm not sure, given his age, if he's likely to be more competent than Varrus though...

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The more interesting question is, if any other proconsul than Varus would have managed the process of provincialisation in Germania Magna differently and therefor had avoided the revolt at all.

Or was there no alternative? Was there perhaps no chance at all to provincialize Germania with the usual roman methods? Just to speak with Montesquieu (slightly misquoted): "Without Arminius some other german would have kicked the romans out of Germania"

Agricola said:

The more interesting question is, if any other proconsul than Varus would have managed the process of provincialisation in Germania Magna differently and therefor had avoided the revolt at all.

Or was there no alternative? Was there perhaps no chance at all to provincialize Germania with the usual roman methods? Just to speak with Montesquieu (slightly misquoted): "Without Arminius some other german would have kicked the romans out of Germania"

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I think there was an alternative-while its true there may have been not much economical advantage in controlling Germania, Augustus's main reason for occupying it hasn't changed-he wanted to provide a buffer to Italy and Gaul (the buffer to Italy is consistent with his other policies of expansion). It will be hard for any emperor to abandon it without any serious military defeat the longer they are there as well.

The point is the romans won many tactical victories in Germany after Teutoburg. But this did not work because Germany was not mature for the kind of rule Rome installed in provinces. Germany was not a profitable province for Rome.

Matteo said:

The point is the romans won many tactical victories in Germany after Teutoburg. But this did not work because Germany was not mature for the kind of rule Rome installed in provinces. Germany was not a profitable province for Rome.

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But the point is also that up until Teutoburg, AUgustus showed every intention of annexing Germania up to the Elbe. I don't see why he would suddenly abandon that goal without suffering any serious military setback.