Italy World War II What if.

What if Fascist Italy decided to remain neutral during the second world war rather than siding with Hitler and Germany?

Or.

What if Italy had sided with the Allies, at the start of the war? Later on? Maybe to secure some land before the Soviet advance.
 
Neutral Italy

From what I can recall of previous debates, neutral Italy (say Benito decides not to do anything in the first couple of years whilst he rearms/upgrades the Italian army, and then he manages to restrain himself and sit on the fence for a while whilst he watches how the fighting's going) means a lot less hassle for British shipping in the Mediterranean, and Britain possibly only needing to mop up any German holdings in Africa. (I'm not sure what would happen with regard to the Vichy French.:confused:)
With the Italian fleet not committed to the Axis, the British may be able to afford not to be in such a rush to sink the French at Mers-el-Kébir, resulting in possibly better relations with the French (Free or otherwise).
Meanwhile, Adolf gets to avoid the distractions of North Africa and Greece (plus Crete in the latter case, which was a bit rough on the German paratroops) and has another neutral country abutting the Reich with which he can trade for raw materials that he can't get from countries his armies are currently occupying.
The Italians get to be bribed by and to sell things to both the Reich and the British, making money without losing any troops. (Well, not losing any troops, always assuming that since his African empire isn't under attack, Benito doesn't feel pressured into starting something in Albania.)
I think I've seen suggestions somewhere that Italy was months away from discovering Libyan oil in the OTL, but that the geological mission that would have found it was cancelled when Benito threw-in, militarily, with Nazi Germany.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Best thing for Italy would be to emulate Franco and stay out of the damned way. Economically the Italian had no business in the game.

We regularly discuss how the Japanese Empire didn't have a chance in hell because of the disparity in economic power, well Japan's economic potential was about 1/3 HIGHER. The Italian were decidedly inferior in warmaking potential to the country that is held up as the "Bambi" side in Godzilla vs. Bambi.

Country % of Total Warmaking Potential
United States 41.7%
Germany 14.4%
USSR 14.0%
UK 10.2%
France 4.2%
Japan 3.5%
Italy 2.5%
Seven Powers (total) (90.5%)

http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm

This doesn't even take into account the weakness of the Italian ground components. Much of its equipment had been give, free of charge, to the Spanish during the Civil War, much of the rest was obsolescent (and unlike the U.S. the Italian industrial base wasn't capable of even beginning to change things).
 
Ironically, Italy would have probably ended up as the 3rd strongest country in the world by the Mid 50's. The US and the USSR is clearly out of it's league, but Britain and France are spent and about to lose all of their colonies. Japan and Germany are completely defeated and will lose all their Empires. Fascism wouldn't be completely discredited and Italy would be the only viable leader of a weaker, but noticeable fascist bloc. Libyan oil would boost their economy and they'd be one of the few industrialized countries to avoid the war. China's still a mess. In the 50's, Italy was listed as one of a handful of countries with the potential to create nuclear weapons... the others being Japan, West Germany, France, Belgium and the Scandinavian countries.

From what I can recall of previous debates, neutral Italy (say Benito decides not to do anything in the first couple of years whilst he rearms/upgrades the Italian army, and then he manages to restrain himself and sit on the fence for a while whilst he watches how the fighting's going) means a lot less hassle for British shipping in the Mediterranean, and Britain possibly only needing to mop up any German holdings in Africa. (I'm not sure what would happen with regard to the Vichy French.:confused:)
With the Italian fleet not committed to the Axis, the British may be able to afford not to be in such a rush to sink the French at Mers-el-Kébir, resulting in possibly better relations with the French (Free or otherwise).
Meanwhile, Adolf gets to avoid the distractions of North Africa and Greece (plus Crete in the latter case, which was a bit rough on the German paratroops) and has another neutral country abutting the Reich with which he can trade for raw materials that he can't get from countries his armies are currently occupying.
The Italians get to be bribed by and to sell things to both the Reich and the British, making money without losing any troops. (Well, not losing any troops, always assuming that since his African empire isn't under attack, Benito doesn't feel pressured into starting something in Albania.)
I think I've seen suggestions somewhere that Italy was months away from discovering Libyan oil in the OTL, but that the geological mission that would have found it was cancelled when Benito threw-in, militarily, with Nazi Germany.

The Italians actually found oil in 1938, but Libya didn't have the infrastructure and technology necessary to access it and World WAR 2 was coming.
 
Best thing for Italy would be to emulate Franco and stay out of the damned way. Economically the Italian had no business in the game.

We regularly discuss how the Japanese Empire didn't have a chance in hell because of the disparity in economic power, well Japan's economic potential was about 1/3 HIGHER. The Italian were decidedly inferior in warmaking potential to the country that is held up as the "Bambi" side in Godzilla vs. Bambi.

Country % of Total Warmaking Potential
United States 41.7%
Germany 14.4%
USSR 14.0%
UK 10.2%
France 4.2%
Japan 3.5%
Italy 2.5%
Seven Powers (total) (90.5%)

http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm

This doesn't even take into account the weakness of the Italian ground components. Much of its equipment had been give, free of charge, to the Spanish during the Civil War, much of the rest was obsolescent (and unlike the U.S. the Italian industrial base wasn't capable of even beginning to change things).

Staying out of the war would be best, but it should be noted that while Japan was economically and industrially weak compared to the British and the Americans, they still managed to win some incredible victories. They were punching way above their weight class.
 
I think Italy staying out of the war is a win for everybody, especially the Italians. I could see Italy staying neutral but maintaining a belligerent neutrality status forcing the British to maintain forces and garrisons throughout the Mediterranean and North Africa just in case.
 
Would this mean there are enough Commonwealth forces to defend Burma and Malaysia? I think a post war Italy would want to join NATO. Are they going to let the conquerers of Ethiopia join NATO?
 
Would this mean there are enough Commonwealth forces to defend Burma and Malaysia? I think a post war Italy would want to join NATO. Are they going to let the conquerers of Ethiopia join NATO?

I doubt Mussolini'd want to join NATO, which would put him completely in the shere of the Anglosphere. He'd probably try to be independent. Like De Gaulle.
 

Driftless

Donor
What would be the POD(s) for the Italians sitting on the sidelines?

Mussolini wanted to be a player, and sitting on the sidelines wouldn't accomplish that goal, even if smart, even if it would be playing the long game. Does Balbo (or someone else?) oust Benny to make that situation come about?
 
What would be the POD(s) for the Italians sitting on the sidelines?

Mussolini wanted to be a player, and sitting on the sidelines wouldn't accomplish that goal, even if smart, even if it would be playing the long game. Does Balbo (or someone else?) oust Benny to make that situation come about?

If the British and French can win a major victory against the Germans... at least one, Mussolini would probably wait. Aside from that, I don't know. He could die. If Ciano, Badoglio or any of the other Fascist higher ups take over they're likely to remain neutral for territorial concessions.
 

Driftless

Donor
What timelines have already been done that has Italo Balbo, or another replacing Mussolini - as a central theme?
 
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