What if The US was able to export equally during WWI

How different would WWI had been if the US were able to somehow export and equal percentage or near equal percentage of products to The Central and Allied Powers? In OTL, by the end of 1914 80% of US Products went to Britain and France because of Allied blockades to allow US products to reach German waters, this of course went against the rules of neutrality.

So essentially how would the war be different if the US either didn't care about Britain's demands and offers and shipped to the Central Powers anyways, or found someway around them...which given Britain's naval power in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Pacific/Indian Oceans, and North Sea/English Channel would be almost impossible.
 
How different would WWI had been if the US were able to somehow export and equal percentage or near equal percentage of products to The Central and Allied Powers? In OTL, by the end of 1914 80% of US Products went to Britain and France because of Allied blockades to allow US products to reach German waters, this of course went against the rules of neutrality.

So essentially how would the war be different if the US either didn't care about Britain's demands and offers and shipped to the Central Powers anyways, or found someway around them...which given Britain's naval power in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Pacific/Indian Oceans, and North Sea/English Channel would be almost impossible.



Probably not a lot. The Allied purchases were largely paid for from loans raised in America, and secured on Allied (mainly British) investments there. German investments were only a fraction of the Anglo-French ones, so she could not have raised loans of comparable size, hence could not have purchased on the same scale.

Incidentally, there was no breach of the "rules of neutrality". American firms would have happily sold goods to Germany. It was just Germany's bad luck that the Allied blockade made it largely impossible to deliver them - though I understand some foodstuffs etc did get in via Holland and Scandinavia. There was and is no obligation on a neutral to "level the playing field" in such circs by limiting exports to one of the belligerents.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
How different would WWI had been if the US were able to somehow export and equal percentage or near equal percentage of products to The Central and Allied Powers? In OTL, by the end of 1914 80% of US Products went to Britain and France because of Allied blockades to allow US products to reach German waters, this of course went against the rules of neutrality.

So essentially how would the war be different if the US either didn't care about Britain's demands and offers and shipped to the Central Powers anyways, or found someway around them...which given Britain's naval power in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Pacific/Indian Oceans, and North Sea/English Channel would be almost impossible.
What?
Blockades have been a legal part of warfare for centuries. That's where the term "Contraband" comes from...
 
Incidentally, there was no breach of the "rules of neutrality".

I'd rather go with Coogan ("The End of Neutrality") and say that by April 1915 (thus prior to the Lusitania incident) the US had ceased to be a neutral power and had factually sided with the Entente powers. - The US were voluntarily accepting all trade restrictions imposed by Britain and no serious attempt was made to press home the rights of a true neutral, i.e.: trading with all sides. In revanche, every move by Germany was condemned and every incident used to extort concessions by threatening war.

As for the volume of trade, the Central Powers didn't need high priced technology, they would have been glad to receive agricultural poducts - grain, fodder, leather, cotton, - and some loads of natural resources, rubber, copper, steel stabilisers. So, perhaps by trading high tech chemical products (like in the case of the trade submarine "Deutschland") these could have been puchased on the US market.
 

BooNZ

Banned
Incidentally, there was no breach of the "rules of neutrality". American firms would have happily sold goods to Germany. It was just Germany's bad luck that the Allied blockade made it largely impossible to deliver them - though I understand some foodstuffs etc did get in via Holland and Scandinavia. There was and is no obligation on a neutral to "level the playing field" in such circs by limiting exports to one of the belligerents.

What?
Blockades have been a legal part of warfare for centuries. That's where the term "Contraband" comes from...

The rules were also legal under U.S. National law at time also.

yeah - Nah

http://io9.com/was-britains-wwi-blockade-the-first-atrocity-of-the-20t-1665227466

According to the 1856 Declaration of Paris (still in force in 1914), blockades were permitted, but only if they were so-called "effective" blockades — meaning that blockades should only take on the form of a cordon of ships off an enemy port or coast. Blockades 'from a distance' were strictly prohibited

The blockade also violated the 1909 London Declaration which established the rules under which items could be confiscated (Britain was not a signatory, but the international community — especially the United States — still expected Britain to honor the spirit of the Declaration; it was, after all, Britain's idea).
 

Saphroneth

Banned
yeah - Nah

http://io9.com/was-britains-wwi-blockade-the-first-atrocity-of-the-20t-1665227466

According to the 1856 Declaration of Paris (still in force in 1914), blockades were permitted, but only if they were so-called "effective" blockades — meaning that blockades should only take on the form of a cordon of ships off an enemy port or coast. Blockades 'from a distance' were strictly prohibited

The blockade also violated the 1909 London Declaration which established the rules under which items could be confiscated (Britain was not a signatory, but the international community — especially the United States — still expected Britain to honor the spirit of the Declaration; it was, after all, Britain's idea).


Effective has never meant that. It means that you can stop ships getting to the enemy, not that you do it with a close blockade.

"The question of if a blockade is effective is a question of fact". It stopped the merchant ships; therefore, it is effective. (This is the same defence the US used in the American Civil War, with less justification since their own blockade was quite flimsy in the first couple of years.)



As for violating the 1909 London Declaration - what items were confiscated wrongly? Please give a specific example - the best one you have.
 
yeah - Nah

http://io9.com/was-britains-wwi-blockade-the-first-atrocity-of-the-20t-1665227466

According to the 1856 Declaration of Paris (still in force in 1914), blockades were permitted, but only if they were so-called "effective" blockades — meaning that blockades should only take on the form of a cordon of ships off an enemy port or coast. Blockades 'from a distance' were strictly prohibited

The blockade also violated the 1909 London Declaration which established the rules under which items could be confiscated (Britain was not a signatory, but the international community — especially the United States — still expected Britain to honor the spirit of the Declaration; it was, after all, Britain's idea).
Umm... I'd suggest reading what the Declaration of Paris actually says - it's a long way from what that site claims it says!

The Plenipotentiaries who signed the Treaty of Paris of March assembled in conference,
Considering: That maritime law in time of war has long been the subject of deplorable disputes;
That the uncertainty of the law and of the duties in such a matter gives rise to differences of opinion between neutrals and belligerents which may occasion serious difficulties, and even conflicts; that it is consequently advantageous to establish a uniform doctrine on so important a point;
That the Plenipotentiaries assembled in Congress at Paris cannot better respond to the intentions by which their Governments are animated than by seeking to introduce into International relations fixed principles in this respect.
The above-mentioned Plenipotentiaries, being duly authorized, resolved to concert among themselves as to the means of attaining this object; and having come to an agreement, have adopted the following solemn declaration:
1. Privateering is and remains abolished;
2. The neutral flag covers enemy's goods, with the exception of contraband of war;
3. Neutral goods, with the exception of contraband of war, are not liable to capture under enemy's flag;
4. Blockades, in order to be binding, must be effective-that is to say, maintained by a force sufficient really to prevent access to the coast of the enemy.
The Governments of the undersigned Plenipotentiaries engage to bring the present declaration to the knowledge of the States which have not taken part in the Congress of Paris, and to invite them to accede.
Convinced that the maxims which they now proclaim cannot but be received with gratitude by the whole world, the undersigned Plenipotentiaries doubt not that the efforts of their Governments to obtain the general adoption thereof will be crowned with full success.
The present Declaration is not and shall not be binding, except between those Powers who have acceded, or shall accede, to it.

Note that there is nothing about distant blockades, merely a statement that they have to be watertight. Because of the size of the RN and it's geographical position, they were able to do this - the idea that a blockade has to be close to be effective is not supported by the text.

The 1909 Declaration of London (http://www1.umn.edu/humanrts/instree/1909b.htm) does state that a blockade "may not extend beyond the ports and coasts belonging to or occupied by the enemy", which would put the RN's position in contravention of it (which is probably why they didn't sign!), but it also permits them to declare foodstuffs as contraband. Sodium Nitrate would also be conditional contraband - it's used in fertilizer but also in explosives and pyrotechnics. All in all your link seems to be heavy on hyperbole but at the same time seems to be in direct contradiction of it's stated sources.
 
As for violating the 1909 London Declaration - what items were confiscated wrongly? Please give a specific example - the best one you have.

Article 1. A blockade must not extend beyond the ports and coasts belonging to or occupied by the enemy.

The Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark were not allowed to import whatever they wished for during the North Sea blockade. It certainly made sense to establish pre-war quotas for neutrals to stop them from supplying Germany.
Legally speaking though I would call that a violation. Then again the British Empire never ratified said treaty and the neutral countries didn’t complain too much. So the US let that one slide in OTL I guess.

 

BooNZ

Banned
Umm... I'd suggest reading what the Declaration of Paris actually says - it's a long way from what that site claims it says!



Note that there is nothing about distant blockades, merely a statement that they have to be watertight. Because of the size of the RN and it's geographical position, they were able to do this - the idea that a blockade has to be close to be effective is not supported by the text.

The 1909 Declaration of London (http://www1.umn.edu/humanrts/instree/1909b.htm) does state that a blockade "may not extend beyond the ports and coasts belonging to or occupied by the enemy", which would put the RN's position in contravention of it (which is probably why they didn't sign!), but it also permits them to declare foodstuffs as contraband. Sodium Nitrate would also be conditional contraband - it's used in fertilizer but also in explosives and pyrotechnics. All in all your link seems to be heavy on hyperbole but at the same time seems to be in direct contradiction of it's stated sources.

It is the first time I have encountered that site, but I have read the contents from a number of different sources. Having read the Declaration of Paris provided by you, a literal interpretation supports the position of the website. To prevent access to the coast, the blockading force needs to be in sight of the coast (e.g. a doorman who is rooming a car park becomes a security guard).

As an alternative, lets just use your interpretation for fun. To be effective, the blockade must prevent access to the coast by the enemy. The truth of the matter was that the Royal navy never had the capacity to make its blockade 'watertight' as you assert. Many concede that the blockade only became effective (in real terms) when the US entered and stopped the supplies at source. Using your interpretation, a successful blockade runner would make the blockade illegal because it demonstrates it is not effective.

In the most part the size of the royal navy enabled it to play the role the privateers had played in the past, something the Paris declaration did not tolerate.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Article 1. A blockade must not extend beyond the ports and coasts belonging to or occupied by the enemy.


The Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark were not allowed to import whatever they wished for during the North Sea blockade. It certainly made sense to establish pre-war quotas for neutrals to stop them from supplying Germany.
Legally speaking though I would call that a violation. Then again the British Empire never ratified said treaty and the neutral countries didn’t complain too much. So the US let that one slide in OTL I guess.

Not only was it never ratified, but:

1) There's a thing called the Doctrine of Continuous Voyage (which the US used in the Civil War, IIRC) which says that if it's intended for the enemy it can be blocked even if it's going to be unloaded for transshipment at a neutral port.
2) If it's not intended for the enemy then it goes through.
3) If there's dispute, then it goes to a prize court. This is the whole reason prize courts exist, to determine what's legal and what's not under this law.

Is there an example of a neutral ship being stopped and having something unlawfully seized, given the Doctrine of Continuous Voyage?


(Since I asked for the BEST example, I'd expect there to be some good cases it happened.)




It is the first time I have encountered that site, but I have read the contents from a number of different sources. Having read the Declaration of Paris provided by you, a literal interpretation supports the position of the website. To prevent access to the coast, the blockading force needs to be in sight of the coast (e.g. a doorman who is rooming a car park becomes a security guard).

As an alternative, lets just use your interpretation for fun. To be effective, the blockade must prevent access to the coast by the enemy. The truth of the matter was that the Royal navy never had the capacity to make its blockade 'watertight' as you assert. Many concede that the blockade only became effective (in real terms) when the US entered and stopped the supplies at source. Using your interpretation, a successful blockade runner would make the blockade illegal because it demonstrates it is not effective.

In the most part the size of the royal navy enabled it to play the role the privateers had played in the past, something the Paris declaration did not tolerate.


The bit about privateers is a completely absurd interpretation. Do you even know what a privateer is?
They're private citizens operating with a Letter of Marque. By definition a naval vessel cannot be a privateer - the closest they can get is sinking ships without warning, which is illegal but for a different reason.


As for effectiveness - blockade runners do not by themselves neutralize a blockade, that one was played out as far back as the American Civil War (when blockade runners merrily violated the Union blockade almost daily).

My understanding - which may be flawed - is that a blockade is effective when it stops most of the traffic and manages to at least pursue most of the blockade breakers.


Do you have any evidence that ships loaded with contraband intended for Germany routinely broke the RN blockade of Germany, as your post suggests?
 

BooNZ

Banned
The 1909 Declaration of London (http://www1.umn.edu/humanrts/instree/1909b.htm) does state that a blockade "may not extend beyond the ports and coasts belonging to or occupied by the enemy", which would put the RN's position in contravention of it (which is probably why they didn't sign!), but it also permits them to declare foodstuffs as contraband. Sodium Nitrate would also be conditional contraband - it's used in fertilizer but also in explosives and pyrotechnics. All in all your link seems to be heavy on hyperbole but at the same time seems to be in direct contradiction of it's stated sources.

Thank you for the reference - Article 28(5) specifically states Natural and artificial manures, including nitrates and phosphates for agricultural purposes cannot be declared contraband. Neither can: (6) Metallic ores, (3) Rubber, resins, gums, and lacs; hops; (1) Raw cotton, wool, silk, jute, flax, hemp, and other raw materials of the textile industries, and yarns of the same; (12)Agricultural, mining, textile, and printing machinery; (2) Oil seeds and nuts; copra.

You're welcome.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Thank you for the reference - Article 28(5) specifically states Natural and artificial manures, including nitrates and phosphates for agricultural purposes cannot be declared contraband. Neither can: (6) Metallic ores, (3) Rubber, resins, gums, and lacs; hops; (1) Raw cotton, wool, silk, jute, flax, hemp, and other raw materials of the textile industries, and yarns of the same; (12)Agricultural, mining, textile, and printing machinery; (2) Oil seeds and nuts; copra.

You're welcome.

Examples of the British stopping these, I'm sure, will be easy to come by then. Indeed, I'm sure that you can provide one from before the Germans declared they were just going to sink everything that so much as got close to the British Isles (which is illegal on at least two fronts, possibly three - the lack of compensation, the lack of inspection and the lack of warning).
 

BooNZ

Banned
The bit about privateers is a completely absurd interpretation. Do you even know what a privateer is?
They're private citizens operating with a Letter of Marque. By definition a naval vessel cannot be a privateer - the closest they can get is sinking ships without warning, which is illegal but for a different reason.
Why would a privateer sink a ship (aka a prise) without warning? Do you know what a privateer is? If you reread my post carefully, I said that the Royal navy was performing the role of privateers [in that British warships were seizing vassals on the open seas].

As for effectiveness - blockade runners do not by themselves neutralize a blockade, that one was played out as far back as the American Civil War (when blockade runners merrily violated the Union blockade almost daily).

My understanding - which may be flawed - is that a blockade is effective when it stops most of the traffic and manages to at least pursue most of the blockade breakers.

I was merely reading the terms of agreements other posters kindly provided - are those now no longer valid source material for this discussion?

Do you have any evidence that ships loaded with contraband intended for Germany routinely broke the RN blockade of Germany, as your post suggests?
Maybe not contraband (by definition of the declaration of London 1909), but my understanding was it was not uncommon. Sorry, I don't have access to books at the moment.
 
Thank you for the reference - Article 28(5) specifically states Natural and artificial manures, including nitrates and phosphates for agricultural purposes cannot be declared contraband. Neither can: (6) Metallic ores, (3) Rubber, resins, gums, and lacs; hops; (1) Raw cotton, wool, silk, jute, flax, hemp, and other raw materials of the textile industries, and yarns of the same; (12)Agricultural, mining, textile, and printing machinery; (2) Oil seeds and nuts; copra.

You're welcome.
The problem is that Nitrates are also a major raw material for explosives - so the RN could not legally prevent the Germans importing fertilizers, but could prevent the import of raw materials for explosives (article 25 of the London Declaration - "Articles susceptive of use in war as well as for purposes of peace, other than those enumerated in Articles 22 and 24, may be added to the list of conditional contraband by a declaration, which must be notified in the manner provided for in the second paragraph of Article 23."). You could probably make the same point with coal and metal ores, but in any case the RN was operating by the earlier Paris declaration which didn't explicitly define contraband of war.
 
Why would a privateer sink a ship (aka a prise) without warning? Do you know what a privateer is? If you reread my post carefully, I said that the Royal navy was performing the role of privateers [in that British warships were seizing vassals on the open seas].
Nope, you're missing your history there. There is a very long history of both naval vessels and privateers seizing prizes at sea, and sending them in to port to be condemned by an Admiralty court as a legal prize and sold off. If the Paris Declaration had intended to prevent naval vessels from seizing ships at sea it would have said so - instead it abolished privateers (i.e. privately owned warships) without touching the role of warships to do the same thing.
 
The whole debate is meaningless. The British would do everything that the neutrals allowed them do. And the strongest neutral power, the US (well, neutral...) endorsed just everything the British were doing. The other neutrals were in such weak positions opposite Britain that their opinion didn't matter.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Why would a privateer sink a ship (aka a prise) without warning? Do you know what a privateer is? If you reread my post carefully, I said that the Royal navy was performing the role of privateers [in that British warships were seizing vassals on the open seas].



I was merely reading the terms of agreements other posters kindly provided - are those now no longer valid source material for this discussion?


Maybe not contraband (by definition of the declaration of London 1909), but my understanding was it was not uncommon. Sorry, I don't have access to books at the moment.

My point is that by definition the Royal Navy cannot be privateers. They could have done a different, illegal thing, but privateering is not it.

As for reading the terms of agreements... well, "effective" clearly (ACW precedent) does not mean "stops blockade runners" - it means something much looser. Note that the British kept careful notes of what the US did during the ACW specifically so they could bring it all up next time Britain was the blockading power!

The British were clearly able to maintain a strong blockade - I can only find one example of a (heavily damaged) ship making it through the blockade outwards, aside from the two cargo subs.
There may well have been more. But it's clear that the RN blockade was really very effective by any standard - some Confederate blockade runners ran the Union blockade more times by themselves than I can find German cases of the blockade being run by ships, subs and airships put together!



In any case, a ship with no contraband on (the British published a list, which we'll use for the purposes of determining what's contraband here) is not liable to being seized - even if it's an enemy ship, as I understand it, though I may be wrong on that one. (Possibly the ship's a prize but compensation has to be paid for the goods.)


The whole debate is meaningless. The British would do everything that the neutrals allowed them do. And the strongest neutral power, the US (well, neutral...) endorsed just everything the British were doing. The other neutrals were in such weak positions opposite Britain that their opinion didn't matter.


Clearly they didn't since they didn't do what the Germans did, and unilaterally sink merchant ships without even bothering to investigate them.

The thing which was considered most touchy is probably the way the British tried to work out how much of certain materials neutrals would need and held them to it - to avoid them importing large quantities and then secretly exporting the excess to Germany. There are Admiralty memoranda out there which note that they've tried to tie suspiciously large imports of that kind up in legal cases, but that they don't expect to actually stop them in the end.
 
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Riain

Banned
Disregarding the mechanics of beating the blockade I believe that if the USA had a significant trade relationship with Germany it would not be quite so ready to threaten war and could possibly delay entry into the war. As it was the USA had nothing to lose by declaring war on Germany and no influential group was against the war because there was no practical relationship worth saving. Valuable trade, even if in small quantities, could create a relationship that the USA would not be quite so eager to sever.
 

Deleted member 1487

What?
Blockades have been a legal part of warfare for centuries. That's where the term "Contraband" comes from...
Close blockade of ports yes, far blockades no.

Disregarding the mechanics of beating the blockade I believe that if the USA had a significant trade relationship with Germany it would not be quite so ready to threaten war and could possibly delay entry into the war. As it was the USA had nothing to lose by declaring war on Germany and no influential group was against the war because there was no practical relationship worth saving. Valuable trade, even if in small quantities, could create a relationship that the USA would not be quite so eager to sever.
Yeah, Germany was an important source of chemicals and pharmaceuticals. Even the limited quantities brought in by merchant uboat were eagerly purchased by the US in 1916:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_submarine_Deutschland#Merchant_service
 
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