In 1368, Zhu Yuanzhang proclaimed the Ming dynasty after crushing his rival warlords and driving the Yuan from their capital in what is now Beijing. Later, as part of reestablishing the tributary system, they sent a letter to Timur, addressing him as subject. In retaliation, Timur massacred the envoy, and in 1405, launched a winter campaign to invade the Ming empire, but died along the way. If Timur hadn't fallen ill, and made it to the Jiayu pass, would he have been able to reconquer China?
WI: Timur invades the Ming
- Thread starter dandan_noodles
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If it's okay with you, allow me to copy my two cents, assuming the conquest of China is possible.
One could hold Persia or China, but both in the same time would have been hellish : too great disparities, different structures without even considering distances.
Maybe, a situation where Jahangir Mirza is granted with China and some form of suzerainty over other Timurid states?
I wonder how much a Timurid China wouldn't collide with Islamisation of Timurids, that said. Would it remain superficial, when it was a necessity to rule over Islamized populations or having a suzerainty over rulers ruling over these directly?
As for securing China as a conquest within a Timurid Empire, I'm not sure it would have been doable : the succession wars after Timur's death can point that legitimacy or prestige didn't that entered in count, after all.
If it's okay with you, allow me to copy my two cents, assuming the conquest of China is possible.
One could hold Persia or China, but both in the same time would have been hellish : too great disparities, different structures without even considering distances.
Maybe, a situation where Jahangir Mirza is granted with China and some form of suzerainty over other Timurid states?
I wonder how much a Timurid China wouldn't collide with Islamisation of Timurids, that said. Would it remain superficial, when it was a necessity to rule over Islamized populations or having a suzerainty over rulers ruling over these directly?
As for securing China as a conquest within a Timurid Empire, I'm not sure it would have been doable : the succession wars after Timur's death can point that legitimacy or prestige didn't that entered in count, after all.
I'm really unsure a Timurid conquest is possible; the Ming were some of the first big adopters of gunpowder, which proved its superiority over nomadic cavalry over the 15th and 16th centuries.
Totally asb.Remember,Yongle is also a military genius.He made a career out of fighting nomads like Timur.He most certainly have much more resources.Also,The alliance with the Northern Yuan will most likely fall apart over the share of You aware basically attaching Ming China at it's most powerful state.
Yeah. There's also the fact that the Ming is still VERY strong in this time. Sure, it might detract from them sending Zheng He, but they definitely have enough resources to defeat Timur.
Besides, this is the time of the Yongle Emperor, a good and prosperous time in Chinese history. Their population has recovered from the Mongols, too.
Thing is, Timurid army wasn't a just a nomadic cavalry.
Local forces were used, even if they weren't at the center of command, just like Iranian armies.
Giving the road he chosen, I'd think we could obviously count on a Turko-Mongol cavalry plus Iranian and Turko-Iranian infantry or cavalry troops, including siege specialists.
The lessons taken from attacking Mongols and Northern Yuan were still to be fully integrated : the wider usage of cavalry by Ming happened slightly later.
Don't forget that Yongle took power from a coup : Zheng He's expeditions were partially due to a legitimacy necessity, and a way to counter mandarin's factions against his own court administration. He had to undergo a real purge for that.
In 1405, his reign wasn't as well assured that he would become later.
I don't mean that Timur WILL conquer China : his immediate goal would probably be to make Ming renounce suzerainty over Mongols north and critically east of the Empire (altough that doesn't mean he wouldn't try to deprive Ming from what he could territorially speaking), but the fight may not be as desesperate for Timurids as you made it.
Which is why the army's going to fail hard.He will have difficulty trying to feed those non-mobile elements of his army.They will also slow his army down.
But the Timurids invading would legitimate his rule; if he defends against the barbarians, then he ipso facto is the Emperor. Gansu is a rather arid province; with large infantry components to the army and less than ideal forage ground, as well as heavy fortification, Timur would have trouble making headway in the northeast.
Good point.
That said, I'd be surprised that no one would attempt to point the invasion as a proof Yongle failed as an emperor, and didn't bring the war on Timur rather than let him advance on China.
Well, the land he crossed IOTL was as well quite arid, and if it was an obstacle, it would have already appeared. I'm not sure it would play a lot.
As for heavy fortifications, while it's clearly an obstacle, Timurid army managed to deal with that relatively easily before.
While the "window of opportunity" would be narrow, and with Northern Yuan support/diversion, if his army manages to take quickly enough the strong points of the area, it would make its campaign all more doable.
What we're discussing there is about an hard fight, which I agree on, contrary to a conflict that would be one-sided.
Wot m8? How is it a failure to not attack the Timurids first??????????????
The Timurids didn't deal with it on such a large scale, though. Everything from Xinjiang to Gansu is souper douper arid. Right after he gets through that, he gets to fight the Chinese. Pretty big disadvantage.
Besides, don't forget that there's Tianshan, Kunlunshan, Qilan, Taihang, and Qinling, ALL in his way to China proper.
We could discuss without using internet slang, couldn't we?
Now, I could always go for "Rolf U not see te . d00d" but it's going to be quickly tiring for both of us.
It wouldn't be objective failure of course : I was talking about people that lost ambitions, high positions in the court with Yongle's coup.
These could have argued that Yongle made a grave mistake by not attacking Timur when he was still outside China, as he did IOTL against Mongols, instead of waiting for Timur to attack the Empire.
Basically, accusing him to have mishandled this : after all his envoys were either made prisoner or outright killed.
Again, not that it would have been objectively been a good thing to attack Timur, but it could have been argued against him with more or less success regardless.
I beg to differ : Timurid first campaigns were made into the Central Asia, whom desertic and semi-arid conditions aren't radically different from what you encountered in Xinjiang or Gansu.
The disadvantage is real, but not an unbreakable obstacle (or Timur may simply not have attempted : it's not like we're talking of a wannabe khan, but about someone that showed off military skills)
I'm going to repeat myself, but I don't think he would even have attempted to conquer all of China, but to slash the Ming pretension of vassalage of Central Asia.
If obviously successful in this region, he might have attempted to go further, but that's more of a secondary objective : the goal is more geopolitical than full fledged conquest of China.
Could be that the Jianwen loyalists see Timur as a punishment from Heaven for the Usurper.
SHAH RUKH!
But yeah, any gains made in China would be hard fought, fleeting and injurious in more ways than one. China, you either take it for your own or take what you can and leave; incorporation into a larger entity where it will be receiving anything less than the preferential treatment to which they were accustomed is, was and would be a no-go.
But yeah, any gains made in China would be hard fought, fleeting and injurious in more ways than one. China, you either take it for your own or take what you can and leave; incorporation into a larger entity where it will be receiving anything less than the preferential treatment to which they were accustomed is, was and would be a no-go.
As much as I like the Ming and Qing, and however unlikely, it would be ball bustingly badass if Timur manages to both conquer China and spawn the eventual conquerer of India, so you get some kind of pan Eurasian empire to surpass even Genghis Khan's.
I mean, if anyone can lead a lightning conquest of north China after breaking out of the Gansu corridor, it's Timur.
Attacking fortifications designed to withstand artillery?Timur doesn't have a chance.
It's going to be a brutal fight,but one that's going to be completely one sided because the Chinese have superior numbers.