With a POD of 1957, have Britain be more economically developed, its postwar development far better than IOTL 
AHC: Much better British Economy
- Thread starter Nightingale
- Start date
Well, in one area they are already hit by 1957. That's the aircraft industry. Duncan Sandys, the defense minister then had put out a white paper declaring manned fighters and most other manned aircraft would no longer be necessary and had pretty much wrecked the whole of Britain's aircraft industry as a result.
The hemorrhage of talent, mostly to the US, from it was already well progressed and it wasn't coming back.
Throw in the Comet airliner debacle and it's pretty much done all the way around.
The hemorrhage of talent, mostly to the US, from it was already well progressed and it wasn't coming back.
Throw in the Comet airliner debacle and it's pretty much done all the way around.
With a POD of 1957, have Britain be more economically developed, its postwar development far better than IOTL
Very difficult. The UK was already in bad shape pre-war. Never mind the huge debts to its colonies that it ran up during the war. Debts that they wanted to convert into a currency that they could use to buy stuff, so USDs. Just having a more dynamic aircraft industry isn't going to cut it.
Maybe if you could somehow preserve the original economic plan for fighting the war on a shoestring, which Churchill nixed. I'll try to dig up more tomorrow.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
One way, just have the UK get lucky and discover the North Sea oil fields about ten years earlier.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
I'm a Keynesian. You don't have to be, but perhaps you should.
One smart way is to build Keynesian features into the system, for example, through progressive income rates.
So, as the economy heats up, people get more income and move into higher rates, and that serves to cool and moderate an overheated economy.
And on the flip side during a recession, people's income fall and they find themselves in lower tax rates, and this additional spendable income serves to give a much needed shot in the arm to the economy.
*****
This idea of built in features I got from the book The Instant Economist by Timothy Taylor.
One smart way is to build Keynesian features into the system, for example, through progressive income rates.
So, as the economy heats up, people get more income and move into higher rates, and that serves to cool and moderate an overheated economy.
And on the flip side during a recession, people's income fall and they find themselves in lower tax rates, and this additional spendable income serves to give a much needed shot in the arm to the economy.
*****
This idea of built in features I got from the book The Instant Economist by Timothy Taylor.
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Did the technology exist at the time, or as necessity is the mother of invention, could it have been developed in time for the first oil to come ashore in about 1965?
But there is an argument that North Sea oil did more harm than good to the British economy.
That is, it turned Sterling into a petro currency and the high exchange rates in 1980-81 did more damage to British industry in than the global recession and Mrs Thatcher's economic policies put together.
Earlier discovery of North Sea oil might mean the "Petro Pound" destroys a large swathe of British industry in the middle 1970s recession instead of the early 1980s recession or worse there might have been two periods of "mass extinction."
Andre27
Banned
With a POD of 1957, have Britain be more economically developed, its postwar development far better than IOTL
Kill the unions and be done with it.
RousseauX
Donor
I'm a Keynesian. You don't have to be, but perhaps you should.
One smart way is to build Keynesian features into the system, for example, through progressive income rates.
So, as the economy heats up, people get more income and move into higher rates, and that serves to cool and moderate an overheated economy.
And on the flip side during a recession, people's income fall and they find themselves in lower tax rates, and this additional spendable income serves to give a much needed shot in the arm to the economy.
*****
This idea of built in features I got from the book The Instant Economist by Timothy Taylor.
But that's pretty much exactly what you had 1945-1970s, and then stagflation came along and destroyed the Keynesian consensus.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Alright, so a more valuable Pound Sterling made British exports more expensive. Yes, very much something to this, and then we'd need to run the numbers.
Ideally, like to see graph of Pound Sterling as compared to market basket of major other currencies, and graph of British exports as percent of British GDP?
Well with two of the best universities in the world and an active defense industry, I cant think of why they couldnt have built a tech ecosystem to compete with Silicon Valley or a booming pharma/biotech industry.
IIRC a British Government scientist proposed the silicone chip in the early 1950s, but he couldn't persuade his employers or private industry to take the financial risk. However, that's before the POD anyway.
Though the British Government belatedly build a silicone chip factory in the late 1970s. The then Prime Minister, Jim Callaghan watched an episode of the Horizon programme called The Chips Are Down and was so impressed that he rang up his scientific advisor to ask if what they were saying was true. It was also one of the first firms that Mrs Thatcher privatised.
Nearly everything the programme said would happen has happened.
Riain
Banned
The big industry that was ruined since 1957 is the British aviation industry, dispute the MoD being a major aircraft customer and Britain having a couple of major airlines. If the 1957 Defence White Paper hadn't declared manned aircraft obsolete then Britain could have developed a new generation of military aircraft and with strong government support and a robust military market to leverage from the airlines could have supported a new generation of airliners. A strong aviation industry has all sorts of sub industries such as electronics and engineering, so could help perk the British economy up.
Artaxerxes
Banned
The 57 limits things a bit.
During extensive renovation of the Houses of Parliament (the cabinet and lords having moved out to the fringes of London temporarily) an exceptionally large unexploded bomb is hit, which also triggers a gas explosion, basically gutting the Houses of Parliament.
This causes parliament to move North for approximately 20 years and several departments splitting up. The resulting boost to education results in Manchester becoming a cultural hub alongside Liverpool. The resulting investments in the area boost employment and help them to weather the sell offs caused by an overly eager Prime Minister in the 80s.
The improved economy also butterflies away the Falklands conflict as the Royal Navy isn't quite as gutted or stood down.
During extensive renovation of the Houses of Parliament (the cabinet and lords having moved out to the fringes of London temporarily) an exceptionally large unexploded bomb is hit, which also triggers a gas explosion, basically gutting the Houses of Parliament.
This causes parliament to move North for approximately 20 years and several departments splitting up. The resulting boost to education results in Manchester becoming a cultural hub alongside Liverpool. The resulting investments in the area boost employment and help them to weather the sell offs caused by an overly eager Prime Minister in the 80s.
The improved economy also butterflies away the Falklands conflict as the Royal Navy isn't quite as gutted or stood down.
I think that the cost of maintaining a much larger Fighter Command and RAF Germany after 1957 would have offset the benefits of the extra exports of the P.1121, SR.177 and Fairey Delta 2.
Also IMHO the significant damage had been done before 1957. E.g. the cancellation of the Supersonic Hunter under the 1954 Defence Review, which I think could have been put into service instead of the Hunter FGA9/FR10 and competed successfully against the Mirage III.
Having said that I do agree that Britain could have done better in aviation after 1957.
With a POD of 1957, have Britain be more economically developed, its postwar development far better than IOTL
Dear god, yes. The Marshall Plan was the biggest missed opportunity in this country ever. All too often manufacturing companies ate the seed corn instead of using the money to revamp their machinery. I remember that the Financial Times was still using printing presses from before the First World War in its old HQ, Bracken House, in the 1970’s.
And there was also the oil glut of 1985 that led to an over devaluation of the Pound.
On the other hand the loss of manufacturing jobs caused by the Petro Pound was offset a bit by the jobs that were created in the oil industry.
IIRC the cause of the Second Energy Crisis was the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War that followed. If they hadn't happened then more of British industry would have survived. However, stopping them is probably beyond the scope of this thread.
Though I don't know if the British Government did anything to stop the Pound becoming overvalued. However, my suspicion is that as Mrs Thatcher was in power at the time and as she believed in a minimum of state intervention nothing was done. And as I'm not an economist I don't know if the British Government could have taken effective action even if it had wanted to.
Artaxerxes
Banned
I really wish they'd used the ruins of London to revamp the railways, lay the foundations for more connections and drive some through the city.
Would have been... interesting.
Those dirty fair wage paying bastards