AHQ: Yunnan/Guizhou a defendable position for the KMT?

When you look at a map, you realise that the provinces of both Yunnan and Guizhou are very mountainous and hard to conquer. It often required the "consent" of the regional warlord to pacify the region; the territory is much like Vietnam but more mountains.



Let us assume the KMT has "moved" to a defensible position around the Yunnan-Guizhou area, along with Taiwan. Is this area easy to defend? Will it be overrun by the CCP? How long can the defending line last?

More or less similar to this thread?

Well, there once was a thread about South Vietnam escaping to one of the islands. I thought, if ROV can muster some military strategy in a TTL world, the ROC can probably muster some strength to defend the Guizhou-Yunnan line.
If you've never been there, allow me to first say that Guizhou was originally a historical prison area due to its isolated geography. It was simply not possible to enter there; even now most transport to Guizhou is by air, not by land.
Yunnan is even worse - very easy to defend, very hard to attack. Land is quite fertile too, so no worries about food supply.

Political infighting, incompetence from Chiang, all of this does not matter when you consider these things: they are soldiers, and they fight for the KMT. When they know their lives are at stake(I'm guessing the sentiment will be more shared amongst the higher ups), and they find the Guizhou-Yunnan area, along with Taiwan, to be the most feasible areas for survival, they will stick to it and stick to it hard. They still have almost complete air superiority. They probably can survive there, if they put their mind to it.

zeppelinair said:

Well, there once was a thread about South Vietnam escaping to one of the islands. I thought, if ROV can muster some military strategy in a TTL world, the ROC can probably muster some strength to defend the Guizhou-Yunnan line.
If you've never been there, allow me to first say that Guizhou was originally a historical prison area due to its isolated geography. It was simply not possible to enter there; even now most transport to Guizhou is by air, not by land.
Yunnan is even worse - very easy to defend, very hard to attack. Land is quite fertile too, so no worries about food supply.

Political infighting, incompetence from Chiang, all of this does not matter when you consider these things: they are soldiers, and they fight for the KMT. When they know their lives are at stake(I'm guessing the sentiment will be more shared amongst the higher ups), and they find the Guizhou-Yunnan area, along with Taiwan, to be the most feasible areas for survival, they will stick to it and stick to it hard. They still have almost complete air superiority. They probably can survive there, if they put their mind to it.

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Interesting. I don't doubt that the terrain would be very difficult to attack. However I don't see why Yunnan would not also, eventually, fall when places like Hainan did too. Was Nationalist support in Yunnan stronger than other places of China? I take your point about the soldiers sticking it out, but if they're worried about the local populace stabbing them in the back they will be less effective against the communist troops.

euromellows said:

Interesting, and I don't doubt the terrain would be very difficult to attack. However I don't see why Yunnan would not also, eventually, fall when places like Hainan did too. Was Nationalist support in Yunnan stronger than other places of China? I take your point about the soldiers sticking it out, but if they're worried about the local populace stabbing them in the back they will be less effective.

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Taiwan island also had a lot of aboriginals. I doubt the situation would be any different - both provinces(Guizhou and Yunnan) have significant numbers of tribes and minorities, but none too significant. They are known for their vast differences, and it would be quite hard to cobble up support for a popular front against the KMT.

Kunming Yunnan's capital was a center of democratic & 3rd force opposition to the regime. Ultimately in OTL, the local warlord, I think named Yung Lun, liked things that way, and cut a deal with the communists as they advanced. He must have had enough control of territory with his own militia/army to make this stick pretty well, otherwise there *would* have been a longer KMT hold-out presence in Yunnan, or at least a longer, more grinding campaign to root them out.

I believe at least some portions of Yunnan & Guizhou were pre-"seeded" with communist guerrillas (some being survivals from before the Long March) prior to the arrival of the main communist armies under Liu Bocheng & Deng Xiaoping.

Then, what place will serve as major port of this alt-Roc (Yunnan-Guizhou/Chinese "Kunming")?

ramones1986 said:

Then, what place will serve as major port of this alt-Roc (Yunnan/Chinese "Kunming")?

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I was thinking support through the Burma Road all over again. This depends, of course, if Britain retains Burma(independent in 1948). If it does, then the ROC is in a much stabler position.

However, I was thinking a Taiwan-Kunming dual occupation would be possible under the KMT. They just needed to try harder.

On the issue of dissent within Yunnan, this is why I also mentioned Guizhou - the region, for what I know, has a strong pro-KMT base(after the LM, Chiang pacified the region by sending in his troops). Perhaps the region balances out Yunnan's anti-Chiang dissent or whatnot.

Since a good part of the population in Yunnan-Guizhou are speaking Southwestern Mandarin, so the alt-Ministry of Education will have little difficulties. However, how about the ethnic minorities?

(I'm asking this because the two provinces are the most ethnically-diverse provinces in China).

IOTL there was a Muslim insurgency active from 1950 to 1958. Had the KMT been better prepared or willing to maintain a resistance, keeping a rump ROC in Yunnan and parts of Guizhou may have been possible. Heavy American support and competent land policy would have been needed as well in order to pull it off. It would probably also require a different local warlord. This would be quite an interesting TL if one could find time to do the research.

EDIT: Further Ideas:
- Obviously having Yunnan and bits of Guizhou under the control or influence of the ROC would be a major pain for the PRC. Multiple attempts would be likely made to take the region, which could interfere with or otherwise cause changes in how China deals with Korea and Vietnam.
- Yunnan has vast reserves of precious metals, in addition to the fertile land mentioned above. This would make intentional economic growth a possibility for the future.
- Yunnan's army would be primarily a defense force; lots of SAMs and interceptors would be useful to keep the PLAAF out.
- The political situation would be...awkward. The KMT controlling both Yunnan and Taiwan will find each of the territories very different in terms of economic development and cultural temperament, so there'll be some challenges there. Also, a few more countries might recognize the ROC, or for a longer time.

- Yunnan ITTL would be a potentially more accessible destination for people fleeing the various Maoist political persecutions. Intellectuals and businessmen who committed suicide IOTL might in this world end up "south of the clouds".

LeX said:

....
- Yunnan ITTL would be a potentially more accessible destination for people fleeing the various Maoist political persecutions. Intellectuals and businessmen who committed suicide IOTL might in this world end up "south of the clouds".

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Adding two more:
1. AHC: Mao's Long March does not go through the area. This weakened KMT positions in the long term, as the CCP bought the love of the minorities.
2. Fortification of this specific area as the "region of last resort" for escape if Japan did take over all of China during the Second Sino-Japanese War.

Are the mountain enough to stop the communist infiltration into those areas?

If the communists can get a VC style insurgency going in there it could spell doom for the Kuomintang.

I can imagine the prospects of communism being very appealing to the locals there.

AshiusX said:

Are the mountain enough to stop the communist infiltration into those areas?

If the communists can get a VC style insurgency going in there it could spell doom for the Kuomintang.

I can imagine the prospects of communism being very appealing to the locals there.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/228_Incident
We'll be seeing a lot of these then, I suppose. Not the political uprisings, but the political suppressions. Fortification of the border will also help in keeping Communism out.

zeppelinair said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/228_Incident
We'll be seeing a lot of these then, I suppose. Not the political uprisings, but the political suppressions. Fortification of the border will also help in keeping Communism out.

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Its certainly going to be a dirty affair to say the least.

I imagine all of the population living anywhere near the border Communist China being forcibly relocated somewhere else.

There is always going to be the threat of Chinese PLA just marching in there just to oust the Kuomintang out there. Maybe a strong US presence might defer this.

I wondered how many troops you need to properly patrol those borders.
Maybe between 500,000 to 1 million troops at least.
There will be many coming from the Taiwanese mainland and of course conscripted from the local populace.

AshiusX said:

Its certainly going to be a dirty affair to say the least.

I imagine all of the population living anywhere near the border Communist China being forcibly relocated somewhere else.

There is always going to be the threat of Chinese PLA just marching in there just to oust the Kuomintang out there. Maybe a strong US presence might defer this.

I wondered how many troops you need to properly patrol those borders.
Maybe between 500,000 to 1 million troops at least.
There will be many coming from the Taiwanese mainland and of course conscripted from the local populace.

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Being aware of the fact many of the KMT troops were unable to escape to Taiwan and had to go into Thailand, there certainly will be more troops stationed in the Yunnan-Guizhou area. This new ROC's interaction with other states in Southeast Asia will be interesting. Will it be the bastion against Communist for other nations? Or will it fall with the others?

zeppelinair said:

Being aware of the fact many of the KMT troops were unable to escape to Taiwan and had to go into Thailand, there certainly will be more troops stationed in the Yunnan-Guizhou area. This new ROC's interaction with other states in Southeast Asia will be interesting. Will it be the bastion against Communist for other nations? Or will it fall with the others?

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I recall during the Korean War many of the ex-Nationalist troops were still loyal to the the Kuomintang, many of the them wanted to relocated to Taiwan when they were captured as a pow. And a bit of a fasco over the fate of them that stalled peace talks. A migration of Nationalist troops and their families should be carefully implemented .

Maybe the advantages provided by having non-communist nation and friendly to America's cause in Indochina allows them to win the war. The location of Yunnan gives a America a better platform to disrupt the Ho Chi Minh trails so much that attacking South Vietnam becomes a much risky venture for North Vietnam.

Or maybe it becomes of the focal point of fighting communism instead of South Vietnam.

So, how will the rump-ROC be resupplied? Without a constant supply of ammunition and spare parts, all the Commies need to do is wait and walk in.

Where will the foreign aid come from? The British will not retain control of Burma post-1948 period, and they certainly won't do so for the sake of supporting a failing US policy. The French exerted all their efforts to retain Vietnam IOTL; they won't succeed ITTL merely because the US wants them.

In any case, by the time the KMT were retreating to the southwest, they had long lost their most competent fighting forces. They were resorting to paying their soldiers in gold coins (who stuffed them in their pockets, becoming easy pickings for the Communists). Only after they retreated to an area easily defensible by the US Navy were they safe.

EternalCynic said:

So, how will the rump-ROC be resupplied? Without a constant supply of ammunition and spare parts, all the Commies need to do is wait and walk in.

Where will the foreign aid come from? The British will not retain control of Burma post-1948 period, and they certainly won't do so for the sake of supporting a failing US policy. The French exerted all their efforts to retain Vietnam IOTL; they won't succeed ITTL merely because the US wants them.

In any case, by the time the KMT were retreating to the southwest, they had long lost their most competent fighting forces. They were resorting to paying their soldiers in gold coins (who stuffed them in their pockets, becoming easy pickings for the Communists). Only after they retreated to an area easily defensible by the US Navy were they safe.

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Is a sustainable airlift not an option? Thailand was eager to be a US ally after WWI to "cleanse their sins" during the war; until Laos falls, Thailand can be the focal point for US troops supplying the "Yunnan garrison" through both land and air. Thailand can attempt to establish direct land connection between the ROC and itself during the Laotian civil war.

zeppelinair said:

Is a sustainable airlift not an option? Thailand was eager to be a US ally after WWI to "cleanse their sins" during the war; until Laos falls, Thailand can be the focal point for US troops supplying the "Yunnan garrison" through both land and air. Thailand can attempt to establish direct land connection between the ROC and itself during the Laotian civil war.

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That still doesn't solve the problem of plummeting KMT morale, or the loss of all their most competent forces.

And does being openly supported by a foreign imperial power improve, or erode morale, especially when said foreign power won't commit its own men?

Nor does it solve the problem of corruption (which is tied with morale). Many cans of Spam the US sent to the KMT ended up in Communist bellies.