WI: Hitler killed in Paris 1940

On 23 June 1940 while visiting Paris, Adolf Hitler is assassinated.

- Who would take control in Germany?
- What would happen in the war? Would Operation Barbarossa still take place?
- How would Hitler be perceived by history and by Germans?

Goring at the time was Hitlers successor, Barbarossa might still take place or Goring might decide simply to make peace probably the former. Hitler would have been perceived like Franco or Mussolini, bad but not the worst mainly because the war hasn't claimed 60 million lives yet and the concentration camps haven't opened all over the place.

Goring was way smarter then Hitler, but still a hard-head and greedy fellow. He wasn't as Anti-semitic either, and would push Himmler away from the throne. Much easier Holocaust i would say, though freaks like Heydrich, Frick and Hans Frank where still around so no good thing for Jews still.

Still, he would listen to the generals better and wait for Barbarossa instead of June 1941. Meanwhile more airpower can be used against Britain, maybe causing the British to give up hope and ask for an armistice.

Meanwhile, the Nazi reprisals against Paris would have been nearly biblical in proportion: the Louvre would have been stripped to the walls; quite possibly the Eiffel Tower would have been razed to remove it as any kind of symbol, the infrastructure wrecked (say, the Metro allowed to flood, among other things) and the city put to the torch. Louvain in 1914 would have looked like a small kitchen fire by comparison.

Assuming that eventually the Allies won, Paris would be rebuilt, albeit slowly, given that the site would have been essentially ruined. It also would have ensured that an enmity between Germany and France would still exist today.

ITTL Barbarossa could have been more successful and post war the Soviets occupy less of Eastern Europe. tThey get East Poland, Slovakia ( There is a not so velvet divorce.) Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria.

With France defeated and Hitler dead they have the best opportunity to make peace, hold on to everything they've got so far and consolidate for the next stage (either a later Barbarossa or war against the UK when the Brits have got their act together enough to have a go at enforcing their policy of not allowing any european power to get too strong).

They'd been very very lucky to get that far and for France to fall so easily.

If they choose to put a less stupid guy than Heisenberg in charge of R&D they might even get a bomb before being curbstomped by Soviets or Allies in the mid 40s and if they do, you might get a three way cold war.

More probably they in-fight and they are remembered as those guys that took France that time then squabbled until some dissident blew them all up because there was no food left in the country.

OK, let's see

Goering takes power, has to have massive revenge on Paris for the blowing up of the Fuhrer and is certain in his mind that he can subdue Britain through aerial warfare.

Do we assume that the assassin is either caught, or someone makes a claim of responsibility? Either way it would give someone a group to focus their ire on. Otherwise Himmler et al will say its the Jews, and they'll get it in the neck worse and earlier.

Can Goering as Fuhrer win the air war over Britain, or will he interfere so much he screws up everything that in OTL did go right? If his personal reputation is on the line then maybe he commits everything to driving Britain to negotiate, which would have the necessity of firming up the alliance with the USSR.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Paul V McNutt said:

ITTL Barbarossa could have been more successful and post war the Soviets occupy less of Eastern Europe.

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Uh... how? The Germans pretty much did as good as they could IOTL, given their resources. Indeed, most of the realistic scenarios where they can do better ends with everything backfiring even more spectacularly over IOTL thanks to them stretching out their supply lines more.

Grey Wolf said:

Can Goering as Fuhrer win the air war over Britain, or will he interfere so much he screws up everything that in OTL did go right?

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Given how he was pretty much the one who ran the air war IOTL? Probably little to no change.

If his personal reputation is on the line then maybe he commits everything to driving Britain to negotiate, which would have the necessity of firming up the alliance with the USSR.

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The Brits are not going to be very enthusiastic about any peace agreement, particularly if you consider that the Germans don't have much ability to force them into negotiating peace.

ObssesedNuker said:

Uh... how? The Germans pretty much did as good as they could IOTL, given their resources. Indeed, most of the realistic scenarios where they can do better ends with everything backfiring even more spectacularly over IOTL thanks to them stretching out their supply lines more.



Given how he was pretty much the one who ran the air war IOTL? Probably little to no change.



The Brits are not going to be very enthusiastic about any peace agreement, particularly if you consider that the Germans don't have much ability to force them into negotiating peace.

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Do bear in mind that the British don't have any realistic prospects for liberating the European continent either in 1940.

lionhead said:

Goring was way smarter

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According to google, this is the first time this particular phraase has appeared on the internet. There's probably a reason for that.

Germany would do much worse trying to invade the Soviet Union. For all his failures as a commander, Hitler had just as good a strategic understanding of the war as his generals in 1941, and sometimes his decisions were better. In particular, it was only through force of will and stubbornness that he reigned in OKH and Army Group Center in August 1941, directing them south towards Kiev instead of towards Moscow as they wanted, which would have led to almost certain disaster. Someone like Goering wouldn't have the personality to impose his wishes on his generals as Hitler did, likely resulting in a disaster later in the war.

Julian said:

Germany would do much worse trying to invade the Soviet Union. For all his failures as a commander, Hitler had just as good a strategic understanding of the war as his generals in 1941, and sometimes his decisions were better. In particular, it was only through force of will and stubbornness that he reigned in OKH and Army Group Center in August 1941, directing them south towards Kiev instead of towards Moscow as they wanted, which would have led to almost certain disaster. Someone like Goering wouldn't have the personality to impose his wishes on his generals as Hitler did, likely resulting in a disaster later in the war.

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It's questionable whether Goering would invade the USSR at all. He was initially opposed to Barbarossa.

Onkel Willie said:

It's questionable whether Goering would invade the USSR at all. He was initially opposed to Barbarossa.

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Again, Goering lacks the personality and force of will to single handedley impose such a policy. Large segments of the Naxi government and military supported an invasion, especislly those whose opinions were the ones that seriously mattered. Standing up to them would be political suicide for him.

Julian said:

Again, Goering lacks the personality and force of will to single handedley impose such a policy. Large segments of the Naxi government and military supported an invasion, especislly those whose opinions were the ones that seriously mattered. Standing up to them would be political suicide for him.

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Goebbels was not fanatical about it. Ribbentrop would love to be able to make the N-S Pact into an alliance. Goering can have the army and airforce stand by him, otherwise they risk a worse option.

IMHO he needs to win the BoB or drive Britain to a peace agreement. Otherwise he is seriously undermined in his prestige and the other leading figures will conspire to replace him

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf said:

Goebbels was not fanatical about it. Ribbentrop would love to be able to make the N-S Pact into an alliance. Goering can have the army and airforce stand by him, otherwise they risk a worse option.

IMHO he needs to win the BoB or drive Britain to a peace agreement. Otherwise he is seriously undermined in his prestige and the other leading figures will conspire to replace him

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

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The army, the must influential military faction, was seriously pushing for war, as was the SS. German business and economic leaders were also pushing for war in the east. Goebbels supported it. Only Ribbentrop opposed it more than Goering, but he lacked any material support.

The three most powerful groups in Germany were all in favor of war. If Goerin wants to retain any semblance of authority he has to compromise and bend to their wishes.

I think the BoB will be done better for the Germans since someone capable would probably be put in charge while Goring is trying to figure out which one of his rivals he should murder first.

And honestly if it is as sudden as an assassination on Hitler there won't be much of a Power struggle since Goring holds all the cards. He'll be able to take the seat of Fuhrer faster, can murder his opponents the quickest and was better liked than Goebbels or Himmler.

How does he hold any of the cards? The military is fresh off of it's victory in France and the SS has a large militant arm at it's disposal, along with the Gestapo. The Luftwaffe doesn't have any powerful ground forces in 1940 capable to carrying out serious power play. Any attempt to seize more power than he's able to negotiate will result in his rapid removal from power.

Onkel Willie said:

Do bear in mind that the British don't have any realistic prospects for liberating the European continent either in 1940.

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Of course not. They have to wait for the Americans for that.

Julian said:

Large segments of the Naxi government and military supported an invasion, especislly those whose opinions were the ones that seriously mattered. Standing up to them would be political suicide for him.

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Didn't it take awhile for their growing support to gain momentum, mainly at Hitler's behest? I mean, we are talking about Hitler croaking in June of 1940, not 1941. Nobody except him was even thinking of going to war with Russia before the British were out yet...

Julian said:

How does he hold any of the cards? The military is fresh off of it's victory in France and the SS has a large militant arm at it's disposal, along with the Gestapo. The Luftwaffe doesn't have any powerful ground forces in 1940 capable to carrying out serious power play. Any attempt to seize more power than he's able to negotiate will result in his rapid removal from power.

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The SS isn't that big at this time. Besides, Himmler was not well liked, certainly not by Wehrmacht leaders. I imagine the army would side with Goering and push for a conservative-nationalist type of regime with Goering as the new Ersatzkaiser. I imagine the NSDAP would become a bit of a dead letter from then on.

As for the war:
- Goering was initially opposed to Barbarossa and probably won't invade the USSR ITTL, leaving Stalin to happily ride out the war as a neutral.
- BoB still goes awry and Goering doesn't go for Sealion.
- Mediterranean strategy to support Germany's Italian allies, leading to bigger success there.
- From there: keep the US out at all costs (possibly through renouncing Japan and the Anti-Comintern Pact) and hold on until the British public gets tired of the war and demands peace.
- TTL's Germany wants 1914 borders + Sudetenland and Austria. Goering can hereby easily offer to establish an independent Polish rump state, and Polish independence is what the war was fought over to begin with (also, the Czechs could be regaining their independence, although as puppets to Germany). The British government might like pre-war Polish borders but that won't happen (especially since Stalin will side with Goering on the matter), and I imagine the British public will have its concerns about fighting for what seems a lost cause.

Onkel Willie said:

The SS isn't that big at this time. Besides, Himmler was not well liked, certainly not by Wehrmacht leaders. I imagine the army would side with Goering and push for a conservative-nationalist type of regime with Goering as the new Ersatzkaiser. I imagine the NSDAP would become a bit of a dead letter from then on.

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Sounds about right, if he wants peace he'll probably purge the SS all together so that he has a scapegoat for some of the atrocities in Poland.