WI Russia wins the Russo-Polish war?

If Russia wins the Russo-Polish war does it immediately try to invade Germany to help foment a communist revolution? I think the Soviets would invade Germany because Lenin wanted to bring the revolution to Germany,France,Great Britain and other western European countries.

The logistics of the Soviet-Polish War were pretty dodgy for both sides (the Soviets more so than the Poles), even going by the extremely charitable assumption that these problems wouldn't completely hamstring Soviet efforts to conquer Poland (and they did IOTL), it's a stretch to assume that they were in any shape at all to face Germany in a war.

Battered or not, Germany has a huge population of veteran soldiers, and if there is one thing that the Allies fear more than a strong Germany, it would be a strong Bolshevik regime. They would prop up Germany against them in any way they could.

It would prevent the rise of Nazism as the French and British would allow Germany to rearm in the 20s which would help the German economy and get young men off the street. They would also give Germany a few of the concessions they later gave to Hitler which would help the German economy and German national pride in their government.

HeavyWeaponsGuy said:

The logistics of the Soviet-Polish War were pretty dodgy for both sides (the Soviets more so than the Poles), even going by the extremely charitable assumption that these problems wouldn't completely hamstring Soviet efforts to conquer Poland (and they did IOTL), it's a stretch to assume that they were in any shape at all to face Germany in a war.

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Yep. If a miracle occurs at the Vistula which allows the Bolsheviks to win, it will still be a hard victory and mopping the remaining Polish forces up won't be easy either. If Lenin has the wits of a sea slug he will realize attacking Germany will be ten effectively impossible.

Instead, the Bolsheviks allow Germany to reoccupy Pomerelia and keep Upper Silesia, but probably hold on to everything else. Instead, they probably try to take down some smaller countries in the area before the dust settles. Romania is liable to come right after the Baltic States and Finland. Poland becomes an SSR, with an eastern border somewhere at the Curzon Line. (Although, since the Soviets at least showed a certain awareness of ethnic borders, that SSR might include the Polish-majority strip between Białystok and Wilno, while Lvov might become an ASSR or something if things go well). The worst thing of course is that instead of 20 years of independence and development Poland gets an extra 20 years of red terror, society being turned upside down in a horrific way, and so on.

HeavyWeaponsGuy said:

Battered or not, Germany has a huge population of veteran soldiers, and if there is one thing that the Allies fear more than a strong Germany, it would be a strong Bolshevik regime. They would prop up Germany against them in any way they could.

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Would France, which fought two major wars against Germany within living memory, feel the same? Wouldn't it be tempting to consider the new situation as a sort of return to the natural order of things, with a strong Russia (with a funny government, yes, but let's not kid ourselves: you see, it's not as if the previous one was very nice either, wasn't it?) on Germany's eastern border instead of some dodgy newly-created Poland which, as has just been demonstrated, would presumably have been too weak anyway.

jmc247 said:

It would prevent the rise of Nazism as the French and British would allow Germany to rearm in the 20s which would help the German economy and get young men off the street. They would also give Germany a few of the concessions they later gave to Hitler which would help the German economy and German national pride in their government.

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German economy was doing not worst then other in EU. World economic crisis however hit everybody hard. I believe i saw informatio poland had higher % of unemployed then Germany.

However if hermans would be allowed re arm against Soviets they would be seen as a dam against spill of communism so they would see themselves more important for Europe. Even some sort of cooperation with CSR could be possible as many czechoslovak commanders served in Czechoslovak legion in Siberia and had experience fighting communists. So nazis could be indeed avoided.

I pretty much agree with what everyone else has been saying; an authoritarian nationalist regime might well happen anyway (though it might not), but probably not something nearly as extreme as Nazism.

Also worth noting, though no-one has contradicted it, is that any attempted Soviet invasion of Germany in this time-period would be so extreme that there would need to be a new definition of the word 'failure'. Take the likely result of millions upon millions of bitterly anti-communist, mostly conservative nationalist, experienced, properly trained soldiers fighting the Red Army of this era and it doesn't look pretty for the USSR.

For another thing (though this is far more tenuous), the USSR itself might not survive if it looks like it's spreading the Revolution by force from Day 1, which might spark a renewed Russian Civil War.

Well depends. Would whites be able to do something without outside intervention?

Zaius said:

Would France, which fought two major wars against Germany within living memory, feel the same? Wouldn't it be tempting to consider the new situation as a sort of return to the natural order of things, with a strong Russia (with a funny government, yes, but let's not kid ourselves: you see, it's not as if the previous one was very nice either, wasn't it?) on Germany's eastern border instead of some dodgy newly-created Poland which, as has just been demonstrated, would presumably have been too weak anyway.

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Honestly I think Bolshevik-German cooperation is a lot more likely than Franco-Bolshevik cooperation. France did, after all, send troops to fight in the short-lived Western intervention in the Russian Civil War. It wasn't a huge amount of men, but the fact that France was willing to do this in the aftermath of the most devastating war in its modern history (only the Hundred Years' War approached the same amount of devastation) says a lot about its priorities. Germany and the USSR, however, are Europe's black sheep, and much as they might be inclined to dislike each other, they don't have any alternative.

I don't think either France or Britain were prepared to accept the Soviet Union as part of the European balance of power for many years. IOTL the USSR only joined the League of Nations in the 1930's, it took a long time before people abandoned the idea that the Bolshevik state was on the verge of collapse and that only a stiff breeze was needed to knock it over.

HeavyWeaponsGuy said:

Honestly I think Bolshevik-German cooperation is a lot more likely than Franco-Bolshevik cooperation. France did, after all, send troops to fight in the short-lived Western intervention in the Russian Civil War. It wasn't a huge amount of men, but the fact that France was willing to do this in the aftermath of the most devastating war in its modern history (only the Hundred Years' War approached the same amount of devastation) says a lot about its priorities. Germany and the USSR, however, are Europe's black sheep, and much as they might be inclined to dislike each other, they don't have any alternative.

I don't think either France or Britain were prepared to accept the Soviet Union as part of the European balance of power for many years. IOTL the USSR only joined the League of Nations in the 1930's, it took a long time before people abandoned the idea that the Bolshevik state was on the verge of collapse and that only a stiff breeze was needed to knock it over.

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The fear that Germany might cooperate with the USSR is probably going to be a major factor in the allied response. Either a pre-emptive smackdown (as favoured by France) or in my opinion more likely some relaxation of treaty terms and attempts to bring Germany back into the European community as fast as possible.

Both have plenty of issues and would draw mass protest.

deathscompanion1 said:

The fear that Germany might cooperate with the USSR is probably going to be a major factor in the allied response. Either a pre-emptive smackdown (as favoured by France) or in my opinion more likely some relaxation of treaty terms and attempts to bring Germany back into the European community as fast as possible.

Both have plenty of issues and would draw mass protest.

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Making some concessions in favor of Germany is far more preferable to the Western Allies than the prospect of Bolshevik domination, or worse still, an alliance between Germany and the USSR (technically wasn't the USSR during the Polish-Soviet War but I digress). Really, if there was any way to see Germany peacefully reintegrated into the European balance-of-power, it would've been the fear of the Bolsheviks trumping any concerns of German remilitarization.

It fits in pretty nicely with the traditional British interwar policy of trying to accommodate Germany's reentry into the European community, after all.

HeavyWeaponsGuy said:

Making some concessions in favor of Germany is far more preferable to the Western Allies than the prospect of Bolshevik domination, or worse still, an alliance between Germany and the USSR (technically wasn't the USSR during the Polish-Soviet War but I digress). Really, if there was any way to see Germany peacefully reintegrated into the European balance-of-power, it would've been the fear of the Bolsheviks trumping any concerns of German remilitarization.

It fits in pretty nicely with the traditional British interwar policy of trying to accommodate Germany's reentry into the European community, after all.

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However this would be quite a bit earlier than when that was quite solidified in Britain. The public wanted to hang the Kaiser.

So, the Russian Civil War ends with the Bolsheviks controlling the pre-1914 borders, possibly minus Finland...

Germany's political development over the next few decades now that they have a direct border with Soviet Russia will be interesting. Even assuming the Western Allies move for greater reintegration, the Weimar Republic politics is still going to see a mess of extremist parties of all stripes.

deathscompanion1 said:

However this would be quite a bit earlier than when that was quite solidified in Britain. The public wanted to hang the Kaiser.

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The Kaiser was already gone by the time the Soviet-Polish War started. If Britain moves forward on reintegrating Germany, it will be with the Weimar regime. The French might initially scream to high heaven, but the Brits will smack them upside the head and point out it is vastly preferable to keep the Reds in Warsaw rather then let them get to the Rhine via alliance with Germany.

deathscompanion1 said:

However this would be quite a bit earlier than when that was quite solidified in Britain. The public wanted to hang the Kaiser.

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As ON brought up in the post that ninja'ed my own on the matter, the Kaiser was no longer in power. The slightly more palatable Weimar Republic was in charge.

Honestly though, the postwar British public is probably more concerned about rebuilding than anything else. The all-consuming desire to punish Germany is far more present for obvious reasons in France and Belgium.

Communism seems to thrive on warfare. If the Bolsheviks conquer Poland they would probably turn their attention towards other weak territories that use to be a part of the Russian Empire, like Finland and then chances are good they would turn their attention towards Southern Europe and go after what remains of the Ottoman and Austrian Hungarian Empires before they turn their attention towards Germany.

see also

WI: Russia wins the Soviet-Polish war? - Alternate History ...

www.alternatehistory.com › ... › Alternate History Discussion: After 1900
Mar 12, 2011 - 14 posts - ‎9 authors
-Russia will likely set up a "Polish SSR" that would become a founding member of the USSR along with the RSFSR, Ukraine, Belarus, and ...



Hmmm.... That's longer ago than I thought.

ObssesedNuker said:

So, the Russian Civil War ends with the Bolsheviks controlling the pre-1914 borders, possibly minus Finland...

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Only if they are after the Polish campaign ready to break existing peace treaties with Estonia and Latvia as those had been signed before the Battle of Warsaw. Of the Baltics, only the status of Lithuania was being militarily contested at the time, as peace discussions between the Soviets and Finland were ongoing during the battle, in Tartu. Sure the Soviets might walk out of them after trashing Poland, but after having recently read about the Tartu negotiations, I would say they would agree to a peace with a somewhat reduced Finland, maybe sans Petsamo, even if winning in Poland. Another question is if Finland would accept that...

The question nobody seems to have asked yet in this thread is whether the Soviet state is in any, well, state to continue a long war possibly against multiple opponents through winter 1920-21 and beyond? AFAIK it was facing food shortages at home and a famine in Southern Russia beginning in spring 1921, several smaller and bigger rebellions like Kronstadt and the Tambov rebellions. Not all of this would be butterflied away by a victory in Poland. IOTL, Soviet Russia needed a peace with its neighbours also for internal reasons in 1920-21, otherwise it would not have let the Baltics and Finland off the hook - what else than some morale boost from Poland have they got ITTL that make this war-ravaged, broken nation into capable and willing of launching an all-out war even on its small neighbours, let alone anyone else?

I was under the impression as many others have stated, that invading Poland in the 20's was a stretch for the Bolsheviks but Germany is out of the question. Their logistics (yes that old chestnut) was stretched and the Bolshevik hold on Russia was tenuous. The Germans despite the war are still well trained and are not about to have Russia invade them again. France I imagine would scream about rearming but they'd have little choice but to allow Germany to rearm to a degree. They were distrustful of this new Russia and probably realized Lenin's warpath probably included them too (especially if Germany is attacked right after) and it would probably be better to let the Germans bear the brunt of the attack rather than France again. Britain support reintegrating Germany and probably would twist France's arm into relieving the restrictions enough to fend Russia off and keep them away.