The Philippines became independent from Spain in the ridiculously late 1800s, and from the Americans during WW2. What could be a possible scenario to give the country independence in the mid 1800s, and how would it remain independent? Could it have industrialized akin to Japan? Or become something like Siam?
Random Speculation: Earlier Philippine Independence
- Thread starter Erizium
- Start date
As has been mentioned in earlier threads, the Novales revolt of 1823 is a possibility. The 1820s are a narrow window of opportunity for the whole of the Spanish empire to revolt (after this window, the Spanish just clamp down too hard to rebel until the late 19th century). In the chaos of the Latin American independence wars, the Spanish East Indies can also shake off the bonds of Spain.
And this would change the entire dynamic of Asian nationalism, considering that Meiji is two generations away, and the Republic of China is yet another generation from that. The Philippines as an independent nation would be an example of Westernization, albeit a somewhat backward one. European powers wanting influence in East Asia would find the Philippines a possible ally, and a clever statesman can use that to his advantage.
As for industrialization, if the Philippines can quietly take parts of Indonesia over the course of the 19th century, then perhaps we can see the rise of the Philippines as an industrial power as well.
And this would change the entire dynamic of Asian nationalism, considering that Meiji is two generations away, and the Republic of China is yet another generation from that. The Philippines as an independent nation would be an example of Westernization, albeit a somewhat backward one. European powers wanting influence in East Asia would find the Philippines a possible ally, and a clever statesman can use that to his advantage.
As for industrialization, if the Philippines can quietly take parts of Indonesia over the course of the 19th century, then perhaps we can see the rise of the Philippines as an industrial power as well.
Indonesia wasnt entirely under Dutch control, I assume. Would a Philippines that industrialized much more earlier than Japan possibly change Asian history up to the 1940s?
But Captain and soon-to-be Novales was just once a creole kap'pn that had his career endagered by the peninsulares. So for him to support liberal rule, he needed a close relationship with the Conde Filipino (I forgot his name) and to the natives. Of course, there are the conservatives, and I doubt if anyone of them are good and honest brokers. (Gimme some you knew)
Of course, for the whole of Philippines to be fully under the suzerainty of the "Empire", then he needed a strong fleet which he can get fastly, and counter the numerically-superior loyalists.
And then, there's the need for logistics, connection with the Visayans and Christian Mindanao, and the Moros that for eight months, willn't know that they lived along with an Empire at north.
- Superpower Philippines 1823
Of course, for the whole of Philippines to be fully under the suzerainty of the "Empire", then he needed a strong fleet which he can get fastly, and counter the numerically-superior loyalists.
And then, there's the need for logistics, connection with the Visayans and Christian Mindanao, and the Moros that for eight months, willn't know that they lived along with an Empire at north.
- Superpower Philippines 1823
Would this Philippines be interested in "spreading anti-colonial ideals" to its neighbours in Asia? Or would it be partaking on colonial expeditions on its own in Indochina and further north?
Of course, being in possibly the most strategically advantageous point imaginable in East Asia with everything so close, if they were to pursue the latter one only needs to imagine how fare they can go...
There's also the Marianas Islands and Guam that once belonged to us. Well, to the Spanish Philippine government. Although, to think of it, are they too far to be governed successfully from Intramuros?
The Philippines could probably turn the Europeans in SEA against each other by allying with the UK in one war, and with the Dutch in the other, etc etc etc. For expansion, Sabah and the South China Sea would probably be the main targets.
There was an entire conspiracy against the peninsulares, which was why a bunch of creoles were exiled, among them that El Conde Filipino, Luis Rodriguez Varela. It's one of the factors that led to the rebellion in the first place. If one can keep that conspiracy intact, perhaps it is possible that Novales succeeds.
And of course, there's Dagohoy's highland Republic of Bohol, which could be co-opted for the revolution.
The friar orders would be the heart of opposition to the revolution, but the secular priests who serve under them could help keep the Church from excommunicating everyone. And of course the liberals would have to find at least some accord, lest there be a rebellious Cristero analogue. If the friars allow even the creoles and mestizos into their ranks, it would help with the tensions.
It depends on how the Philippines develops as a nation in those crucial first years.
If I were to pattern Philippines like Latin American country behavior, my take is this ATL Philippines would want to retain status quo within the immediate area:
Formosa, Sabah, North Kalimantan, Sulawesi or at least Sangihe Islands, Taluad Islands.
Based on the status quo retention in OTL South America like the War of Confederation.
Just like in Latin America, Philippines would be under British influence.
The more industrialize the Philippines the more resource starve it becomes, the more expansionist it becomes. The less industrialize Philippines is, the more isolationist it becomes.
Of course, Philippines is less resource starve than Japan. So, you got less reasons to conquer based on resources.
Even if the Philippines end up with the same size economy in 1900 would have enough money to buy a modern navy.
As an OTL comparison, OTL Philippine economy in 1900 is roughly the same as OTL Chile. This is the same Chile who bought torpedo boats, ironclads, protected cruisers, armoured cruisers and pre dreads.
They retained status quo because they were surrounded by fellow Latin Americans. This does not apply to the Philippines.
I can understand why the Philippines would maintain a status quo with Qing Formosa, but the south was unstable and mostly unclaimed save by Dutchmen.
And I feel that the Philippines would need to industrialize to maintain itself as a power in the 19th century, lest it end up like Austria and Spain and its fellow colonies across the Pacific. So I'm wondering how to get the Philippines in a position to industrialize, and what culture this nation must develop to get to that point.
Government subsidies are important particularly because the Philippines would be a plantation-based economy and plantations yield more cash than factories.
Attracting investments from the West is another priority, with emphasis on keeping their borrowed monies from abroad at a minimum like Japan.
I think an American government model can be a very interesting experiment for the Philippines, although a more centralized power structure is most likely more stable.
With the amount of discord sowed between the regions by Spain, we most likely need to have a federalist government to keep people from grumbling about how Intramuros is everything.
Again, Dagohoy's legacy would at least help with that.
Hm. The second won't be too hard. The 1820s were the time the Philippines was opened up to trade with the rest of Europe after the end of the Galleon trade. With that money going into the Philippines instead of the pockets of the Spanish, it's not impossible to imagine a middle class becoming powerful.
As for government subsidies, I'm not really good at economics, so I need help with figuring that out.
And on the American government model, it would be interesting. I wonder, though, if it would be feasible considering the main thrust of the rebellion would come from Manila and the Tagalog heartland. But then, I did mention Dagohoy, so perhaps it would be...
In a pre 1860 conflict, the Philippines wont need to industrialize to throw its weight around, since wood rather than steel for the navy.
In a shooting war vs the Dutch or the Japanese pre OTL 1896, even if Philippines dont industrialize, initially Philippines would have the larger and better navy in the Region.
Most of the best ships back then were still built by the British. For example the Naniwa Class cruiser by the Japanese was bought from the British back 1884. Even those Spanish destroyers that fought in Cuba were made by the British in 1897. Or Chile bought ironclads in 1870s, or Brazil buying dreads from the british in 1910. All Philippines needs to do is buy ships and have the cash for it.
However going to the economy, Mexican Porfiriato is a good start. Instead of USA for Mexico, you got the British doing the investing in the Philippines. You also got Argentina's Patagonian sheep farming boom if you are aiming for natural resource based.
Cultural wise, Philippines would most likely be closely related to any of the Latin American nations. Mexico or Argentina or Chile, take your pick. Criollismo and Modernismo is a good start.
I imagine that the Philippines would either be isolationist or expansionist, as said by some of you. I'm much more interested on the latter, as South East Asia remains a fragmented region, ripe for colonization. An industrialized Philippines could possibly be a major colonial power in SEA, starting from Sabah, and possibly all of Borneo, Celebes, portions of Papua New Guinea. Vietnam would probably be a tough one. Qing China and the Philippines could have a war over control of Taiwan, which could make the world see the Philippines as a major regional power if it wins (Akin to the First Sino-Japanese War), or restrict its colonial ambitions. Since the Philippines is expanding across SEA, it could also be involved in conflicts with France (in Vietnam), the Netherlands (Indonesia) or Portugal (Timor). It could also have the same effect Japan had after winning the Russo-Japanese War
I agree, which is why I'm figuring out what is needed to lead the Philippines down that path to expansionism.
Though I think waging war against the Dutch would be a more logical path for establishing the Philippines as a regional power. There's already a traditional animosity there (Dutch pirates! and war with the infidel and the heretic might help with appeasing the friar orders), the south is richer in resources useful for industry (that oil and rubber that'll be needed later on), and China is just too useful for trade (being the middleman between China and Europe was our job as a colony for centuries).
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On another note, I'm wondering about education and what knowledge and ideas are already in the Philippines and what can be brought back from the Americas or Europe. Also, what cultural perceptions there were of history and legend. I mean, of course there's the very Catholic stream there, and that may well be the main uniting force for the nation, but breaking away from an empire whose Church is closely intertwined with the colonial institution may make other bonds.
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Most likely trigger is once Philippines secures Mindanao, eliminates the existence of Moro Sultanates. It can acquire the de jure claim in Borneo via Sulu. There is so much reason for Philippines to destroy Moro Sultanates especially if the Moros continuously raid, rape, pillage and do slave trading around the ports in Visayas.
With Celebes, as Spain's direct descendant it automatically acquires the claim in Celebes.
Philippines would have kept contact with Europe and Americas. Cannot break that attachment especially if you got insulares, mestizos and creoles leading
the government.
As an island nation, Philippines would have looked up at Britain as the perfect government style and would have brought back the most recent British tech, business, fashion, etc.