The Future in 2020, According to USA Today

[MerryPrankster]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=676&ncid=676&e=8&u=/usatoday/20050114/ts_usatoday/predictionindiachinawillbeeconomicgiants

Very interesting scenario. China and India as two of the world's great powers, a new transnational Islamic authority, and an avg. 50% rise in personal income.

[Leo Caesius]

• The rise of a new Islamic Caliphate - an international Islamic authority capable of challenging Western norms and values;
I think the chances of a new Islamic "Caliphate" arising are


Slim; and
None.

Most transnational Arab and Islamic authorities couldn't organize themselves out of a paper bag, let alone into a new caliphate. I'd expect to see the rise of a new Lusitanian World Order before the Caliphate comes back.

[MerryPrankster]

I think the chances of a new Islamic "Caliphate" arising are


Slim; and
None.

Most transnational Arab and Islamic authorities couldn't organize themselves out of a paper bag, let alone into a new caliphate. I'd expect to see the rise of a new Lusitanian World Order before the Caliphate comes back.

Perhaps it's more of an "Islamic pope" sort of figure than an actual unified Islamic empire (the Ummayyad and Abbasid Caliphates).

[Leo Caesius]

Perhaps it's more of an "Islamic pope" sort of figure than an actual unified Islamic empire (the Ummayyad and Abbasid Caliphates).
Even so, he would probably have about as much moral authority than the current Arab League, which is not saying very much. Also, Islam these days tends to break down along national lines as often as it does along denominational lines, which was less of an obstacle in the days of the Caliphate; I can't imagine that modern nationalism (Turk, Arab, Malay, what have you) would lend itself to a transnational authority.

[Faeelin]

the idea of India and China allying is a bit dubious, and I think China's overrated as well.

[Grey Wolf]

Not having bothered to read the article, I might make a few observations. I view all such articles as pretty pointless trash. For instance a decade ago any such predictions would have been all about 'Asian Tigers' and none of the current concern about Islam would have been there. Its a projection of current concerns onto a future that no one can know

As to the Caliphate business I wonder if they are simply using the term to mean that a leader with a religious-political base comes to power and unites several peoples ? There were 19th century examples of this, and for the 21st century it could result in a new powerbase, but only if the surrounding external powers are happy to let it, which to me seems the more dubious assumption

Grey Wolf

[Leo Caesius]

The biggest obstacle to a new caliphate is, not coincidentally, the biggest blind spot that "the West" has towards Islam - the fact that it is not a monolith. In fact, it's as divided as any other religion or ideology. Amazingly, the "facts" about Islam that you read in reputable Western sources are almost always wrong. I recently read somewhere that Turkey is 98% Sunni Muslim. That's just bunk. So, in the final analysis, I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the National Intelligence Council is just dead wrong.

My prediction (regarding Islam), FWIW, is that a lot of traditionally Muslim countries will experience a crisis of faith and you'll see many Arabs experimenting with other religions - probably not Judaism or Christianity, but other faiths like Buddhism, Bahai, or whatever it is that Sai Baba practices. I think Sufism is going to come back in a big way over the next century as well.

[Diamond]

I view all such articles as pretty pointless trash. Its a projection of current concerns onto a future that no one can know


For once, I agree with you!! :D

[Psychomeltdown]

What I'm pissed about is that there's no mention of flying cars or weekend trips to the moon!!!!

[MerryPrankster]

The biggest obstacle to a new caliphate is, not coincidentally, the biggest blind spot that "the West" has towards Islam - the fact that it is not a monolith. In fact, it's as divided as any other religion or ideology. Amazingly, the "facts" about Islam that you read in reputable Western sources are almost always wrong. I recently read somewhere that Turkey is 98% Sunni Muslim. That's just bunk. So, in the final analysis, I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the National Intelligence Council is just dead wrong.



Turkey isn't 98% Sunni Muslim? What're the real demographics?

[Straha]

well the future will be interesting

[Stalin]

well the future will be interesting

In the Chinese sense of the word.

[Stalin]

You just post for the sake of posting, right?

[Straha]

In the Chinese sense of the word.
no shit? What other sense is there?

[Straha]

You just post for the sake of posting, right?
That and I happen to be bored right now

[Leo Caesius]

Turkey isn't 98% Sunni Muslim? What're the real demographics?
The Alevis account for anywhere between 15 to 30%. Nobody is sure how many there are, really. They're Shiite sect.

[Straha]

are the alevis policitically radical?

[Leo Caesius]

They're descended from Sufis, as I understand it. Let's put it this way. A common Turkish joke goes:

A bird flies into a church during communion. It drinks the wine from the chalice and then takes a dump on the crucifix. The priest says to the bird, "You drink the wine, so you cannot be Muslim. You shit on the cross, so you cannot be Christian. You must be Alevi!"

Yes, I know, it loses something in translation.

[Susano]

A world dominated by Asian economic expansion;
That si somehow the main theme of the report... Well, they said this in the 80s already, only that it was aimed at Japan back then. Now Japan does allright again, but it didnt happen. Meh, still, maybe with such future visions cyberpunk with its over-mighty asian corpoations will also rise again from the 80s :P

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Turkey isn't 98% Sunni Muslim? What're the real demographics?

The article probably meant "98% Muslim", as there are a Christians and Jews. The Alevis can't be 40%, but they do seem to constitute about a quarter of both the Turkish and Kurdish population - although Shiite, they are pretty strange and make no common cause with the mainstream. The virtual collapse of Kemalism in the 1990s has greatly benefitted them - they had always been ardent supporters of secularism, and now they are freed from the conformist nationalism as well, and are undergoing a cultural revival.

Curiously, they use Turkish as their liturgical language, unlike Sunni Turks, which use Arabic.

I've been screaming to the rooftops for years that Islam is extremely diverse - I'm amazed that everyone has turned it into the bugbear of the millenium and yet haven't bothered to learn the slightest thing about it. I suppose it's easier to hate when you don't understand.

[MerryPrankster]

I've been screaming to the rooftops for years that Islam is extremely diverse - I'm amazed that everyone has turned it into the bugbear of the millenium and yet haven't bothered to learn the slightest thing about it. I suppose it's easier to hate when you don't understand.

I know that Islam is extremely diverse. I don't think the Caliphate they're describing is some sort of evil scary thing. You've said that a Caliphate would put a damper on extremism; perhaps these people think it's a good thing.

[Grimm Reaper]

Pure nonsense, the idea of India(capitalist democracy) and China(totalitarian socialist) being partners.

And a Caliph makes roughly the same sense as a Pan-Christian Arbitrator.

[Torqumada]

Pure nonsense, the idea of India(capitalist democracy) and China(totalitarian socialist) being partners.


Yeah, what kind of alliance would that be? That would be like the US and the USSR working together to defeat a common foe, like the Nazis or something. ;) :p

Torqumada

[Straha]

THAT alliance would be rather unstable...