Why Operation Sealion could not have been performed successfullly by the Third Reich

[Communist Wizard]

I know we have gone over it multiple times, but let us make a compendum of it on this thread so it can be used at a later date. Argue against or for the idea, but give me lots of Facts. I know CalBear and some others are very proficient in this. ;)

[MrP]

I know we have gone over it multiple times, but let us make a compendum of it on this thread so it can be used at a later date. Argue against or for the idea, but give me lots of Facts. I know CalBear and some others are very proficient in this. ;)

Ian's got a detailed GAH! about it on the upper levels of ah.com - above even the discussion fora, in fact.

[Susano]

Ian's got a detailed GAH! about it on the upper levels of ah.com - above even the discussion fora, in fact.

Those dont exist anymore, or do they?

[CalBear]

BLASPHEMER!!!

HE HAS SPOKEN THE NAME THAT MUST NOT BE SAID!

BURN HIM!!!!


:D

[Zyzzyva]

Those dont exist anymore, or do they?

They exist... there a bitch to get into, though. I forget how I managed to do it last, but as of two months ago they were still there.

[MrP]

Those dont exist anymore, or do they?

http://www.alternatehistory.com/gateway/essays/Sealion.html

[Ynnead]

Sealion needs its own forum sub-category

[Geordie]

Ian's got a detailed GAH! about it on the upper levels of ah.com - above even the discussion fora, in fact.

How much exists in these 'upper levels'?

[kojak]

How much exists in these 'upper levels'?Everything from US government documents detailing why nuclear weapons don't actually exist to secret files on who actually shot JFK.

[MrP]

How much exists in these 'upper levels'?

Oh, I've not read it all.

http://www.alternatehistory.com/ahdirectory.html

[DMA]

Oh here we go... let the pillaging commence! :D

[Bavarian Raven]

i wouldn't say it was impossible (nothing is impossible), just improbably during the time frame of the second world war... now had germany won and had time (for several years) to build up their forces, then and only then MIGHT they have had a chance. period.

[eltf177]

My brother and I once had a long discussion about if there was any chance for Sealion to work given the existing circumstances. It required a lot of POD's to do this and even then...

1) HITLER HAD TO WANT IT - In OTL he waffled badly about Sealion. He would have needed to force the issue for it to have any chance of succeeding.
2) THE RAF HAD TO BE DEFEATED - Needless to say the failure to do this doomed Sealion from the start. And even then any fighters would make an airborne landing hazardous at best. Realize you're going to lose a _lot_ of transports!
3) REALIZE THIS ISN'T A RIVER CROSSING - Too many people considered Sealion to be nothing more than that. The English Channel has some of the worst weather in the world, treating it lightly is a recipe for disaster! I understand another problem was a lack of suitable beaches for landing. Having so few choices aids the defender.
4) GET THE NECESSARY BARGES TOGETHER QUICKLY - One of the biggest problems, not enough to begin with and no time/place to get them ready. I read somewhere that stripping that many barges for Sealion would have hurt production and the economy. And many of them were not suited for the Channel in the first place. Perhaps a number of large merchant vessels run aground would have made more sense for the initial crossing.
5) KEEP THE ROYAL ARMY FROM ESCAPING DUNKIRK - These men, even though badly armed, would have been a major problem during Sealion. Their absence would mean mostly facing Home Guard and Territorial Units which would have been slightly easier.
6) DO SOMETHING TO KEEP THE ROYAL NAVY AWAY FROM THE INVASION FLEET - I consider this to be the biggest factor in the failure of Sealion. Churchill was fully prepared to sacrifice the RN if necessary to destroy the German's in the Channel. A more vicious Dunkirk would also result in the destruction of more RN ships, but quite frankly the Luftwaffe was never very good at this. If the Kreigsmarine had its own airforce trained in anti-shipping operations this would have helped but probably not enough. And with Engima the chance of success drops to nil.

Hope this helps!:)

[Jason]

Point 5a) Realise a lot of wasted effort when you find out there is no such thing as the Royal Army:D

Germans at Dunkirk: "Excuse me, we're looking for the Royal Army"
British: "Sorry mate, never heard of it, we're the British Army"
Germans: "Sorry to have detained you, we'll let you get back to getting on your ships"



My brother and I once had a long discussion about if there was any chance for Sealion to work given the existing circumstances. It required a lot of POD's to do this and even then...

1) HITLER HAD TO WANT IT - In OTL he waffled badly about Sealion. He would have needed to force the issue for it to have any chance of succeeding.
2) THE RAF HAD TO BE DEFEATED - Needless to say the failure to do this doomed Sealion from the start. And even then any fighters would make an airborne landing hazardous at best. Realize you're going to lose a _lot_ of transports!
3) REALIZE THIS ISN'T A RIVER CROSSING - Too many people considered Sealion to be nothing more than that. The English Channel has some of the worst weather in the world, treating it lightly is a recipe for disaster! I understand another problem was a lack of suitable beaches for landing. Having so few choices aids the defender.
4) GET THE NECESSARY BARGES TOGETHER QUICKLY - One of the biggest problems, not enough to begin with and no time/place to get them ready. I read somewhere that stripping that many barges for Sealion would have hurt production and the economy. And many of them were not suited for the Channel in the first place. Perhaps a number of large merchant vessels run aground would have made more sense for the initial crossing.
5) KEEP THE ROYAL ARMY FROM ESCAPING DUNKIRK - These men, even though badly armed, would have been a major problem during Sealion. Their absence would mean mostly facing Home Guard and Territorial Units which would have been slightly easier.
6) DO SOMETHING TO KEEP THE ROYAL NAVY AWAY FROM THE INVASION FLEET - I consider this to be the biggest factor in the failure of Sealion. Churchill was fully prepared to sacrifice the RN if necessary to destroy the German's in the Channel. A more vicious Dunkirk would also result in the destruction of more RN ships, but quite frankly the Luftwaffe was never very good at this. If the Kreigsmarine had its own airforce trained in anti-shipping operations this would have helped but probably not enough. And with Engima the chance of success drops to nil.

Hope this helps!:)

[Grey Wolf]

You only have to quote Halder (unfortunately my memory only lets me paraphrase him) saying that he wasn't impressed that the invasion fleet would be crossing the Channel at half the speed that Julius Caesar had managed two thousand years before

...it becomes clear something is wrong !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

[eltf177]

You only have to quote Halder (unfortunately my memory only lets me paraphrase him) saying that he wasn't impressed that the invasion fleet would be crossing the Channel at half the speed that Julius Caesar had managed two thousand years before

...it becomes clear something is wrong !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Everything I've read says that most effort put into Sealion was half-hearted at best. A lot of the lower-level personnel seemed to grasp the futility of it and just waited until interest died and Hitler's attention turned east.

[bard32]

I know we have gone over it multiple times, but let us make a compendum of it on this thread so it can be used at a later date. Argue against or for the idea, but give me lots of Facts. I know CalBear and some others are very proficient in this. ;)

Fact, Operation Sealion was to have complete air superiority. It didn't.
Fact, the Germans were to have barges for the invasion but they weren't available in time.
Fact, the Germans didn't have competent leadership.

[Blue Max]

I think you would need Germany to trounce the Soviet Union, and to have the America First nimrods running the USA. Then you might get a situation where the UK is left out on its own, possibly facing German Nuclear Attack in 1948 or something.

The whole scenario requires that Germany actually has enough time to fight the UK on her own while doing ever more damage to the country. If Germany starts nuking the UK and the Kriegsmarine is massively enlarged, that would be plausible.

Of course, this means that the Soviets have to be either KOed or forced into the Urals and Germany has be left alone from the United States even as its nuking the UK.

This is perhaps not ASB but its close. The UK might be conquerable if Germany is throwing out this kind of damage against them.

[Cockroach]

Seelowe -as in the plan propsed in OTL- is a several million to one chance of sucess. We've got the usual factors of the RAF, RN, Rhein barges... but additionally there's one other big objection:
The poms will try their best to trash any major ports before the Germans take them. Hence troops, heavy weapons (tanks, artillary, etc.), munitions, fuel and supplies will have to be landed over the beachhead and via minor ports... unlike the aliies in Normandy during 1944, the Germans' naval arm aren't exactly suited for this. Hence the krauts can't deliver sufficient resources to even consider launching a Blitzkrieg. hence the battles will be rather more favourable to the Brits.

Wonder if esl will pop back up? The mere mention of Seelowe is usually enough to get him gibbering about how an 88mm FLaK crudely strapped to the deck of Rhein Barge is somehow a mortal threat to the RN or how a supperior German force of Destroyers running at the sight of British minesweepers somehow constitutes a defeat to the Royal Navy.

[MrP]

Seelowe -as in the plan propsed in OTL- is a several million to one chance of sucess. We've got the usual factors of the RAF, RN, Rhein barges... but additionally there's one other big objection:
The poms will try their best to trash any major ports before the Germans take them. Hence troops, heavy weapons (tanks, artillary, etc.), munitions, fuel and supplies will have to be landed over the beachhead and via minor ports... unlike the aliies in Normandy during 1944, the Germans' naval arm aren't exactly suited for this. Hence the krauts can't deliver sufficient resources to even consider launching a Blitzkrieg. hence the battles will be rather more favourable to the Brits.

Wonder if esl will pop back up? The mere mention of Seelowe is usually enough to get him gibbering about how an 88mm FLaK crudely strapped to the deck of Rhein Barge is somehow a mortal threat to the RN or how a supperior German force of Destroyers running at the sight of British minesweepers somehow constitutes a defeat to the Royal Navy.

I've not seen esl in ages, sadly. I think he might've got a bit narked at the board's widespread (and reasonable) dismissal of Sealion. Nice chap if a bit monomaniacal.

[eltf177]

I was talking with my brother last night and he reminded me of this 'best-case' scenario we worked out. Even i is pretty much a pipe dream though.

Somehow the German's discover that Engima has been compromised. So like the USN at Midway a trap is set. RN Intelligence gets word from Engima that the invasion fleet is going to sail. The RN puts major units (capitol ships and cruisers) into the Channel to stop them. But the loaded barges only go out a few miles and turn around. The Luftwaffe now tries to wipe out the RN in the Channel, hoping to cripple enough ships to allow the real convoy's through.

Two big problems though. The first is that, as I've already mentioned, is that the Luftwaffe just isn't that good against ships. Damage is going to be a lot less than hoped. The second is that, with major units in the Channel, the RAF will put every fighter available over them. Losses on both sides are going to be heavy and most pilots/crews lost aren't going to be recovered. For the RAF the loss of the pilots will be far greater than the loss of the aircraft. This might end with a different Battle of Britain but won't help Sealion much.

[Grey Wolf]

I was talking with my brother last night and he reminded me of this 'best-case' scenario we worked out. Even i is pretty much a pipe dream though.

Somehow the German's discover that Engima has been compromised. So like the USN at Midway a trap is set. RN Intelligence gets word from Engima that the invasion fleet is going to sail. The RN puts major units (capitol ships and cruisers) into the Channel to stop them. But the loaded barges only go out a few miles and turn around. The Luftwaffe now tries to wipe out the RN in the Channel, hoping to cripple enough ships to allow the real convoy's through.

Two big problems though. The first is that, as I've already mentioned, is that the Luftwaffe just isn't that good against ships. Damage is going to be a lot less than hoped. The second is that, with major units in the Channel, the RAF will put every fighter available over them. Losses on both sides are going to be heavy and most pilots/crews lost aren't going to be recovered. For the RAF the loss of the pilots will be far greater than the loss of the aircraft. This might end with a different Battle of Britain but won't help Sealion much.

If the Royal Navy is coming from Scapa, it would be better to try this trap with mines and u-boats deployed en masse everywhere. Of course, throw in the Luftwaffe too, but I agree they wouldn't achieve anywhere near as much potentially

IMVHO of course

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

[Grey Wolf]

Fact, the Germans didn't have competent leadership.

Who wasn't competent and in what way ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

[Tyr]

Even the initial landing for the Germans would have been hard to pull off. Assuming they do manage a sneak attack though as so many n00bs imagine they could- they aren't going to be getting any supplies...

[CDurham]

If the Royal Navy is coming from Scapa, it would be better to try this trap with mines and u-boats deployed en masse everywhere. Of course, throw in the Luftwaffe too, but I agree they wouldn't achieve anywhere near as much potentially

IMVHO of course

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

The RN would be sending every destroyer and ASW boat/plane they can find...

Why do you think I put an alternate name for the invasion as Operation Canopener :p

[Markus]

I know we have gone over it multiple times, but let us make a compendum of it on this thread so it can be used at a later date.

Search function --> "Sealion", case closed.

Seriously do we really need to do this every few weeks?

[bard32]

If the Royal Navy is coming from Scapa, it would be better to try this trap with mines and u-boats deployed en masse everywhere. Of course, throw in the Luftwaffe too, but I agree they wouldn't achieve anywhere near as much potentially

IMVHO of course

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Would this work? Given the fact that the Germans were hardly a naval power.
They didn't even have an aircraft carrier. All they had were a predreadnaught,
the Bismarck, the Scharnhorst, the Gneissenau, and the Tirpitz. The Tirpitz
was sunk by the British RAF using a Tall Boy bomb. Scharnhorst was sunk off
North Cape, Norway, early in the morning of December 26, 1943, by the HMS Duke of York and the other escorts of an empty convoy. The number of which, I forget. It was HX-something. The Bismarck, was sunk by Fairey Swordfish torpedo bombers from British aircraft carriers. The sinking of the
Bismarck, like Pearl Harbor seven months later, spelled the end of the battleship. Bismarck, BTW, was in the company of Prinz Eugen, when she was attacked. Ironically, the crew of the Bismarck had trained to fight the
HMS Hood. When Hood was sunk, the crew of the Bismarck was surprised.
There were only two survivors. I forget how many there were from the Scharnhorst over two years earlier.

[LightInfa]

Would this work? Given the fact that the Germans were hardly a naval power.
They didn't even have an aircraft carrier. All they had were a predreadnaught,
the Bismarck, the Scharnhorst, the Gneissenau, and the Tirpitz. The Tirpitz
was sunk by the British RAF using a Tall Boy bomb. Scharnhorst was sunk off
North Cape, Norway, early in the morning of December 26, 1943, by the HMS Duke of York and the other escorts of an empty convoy. The number of which, I forget. It was HX-something. The Bismarck, was sunk by Fairey Swordfish torpedo bombers from British aircraft carriers. The sinking of the
Bismarck, like Pearl Harbor seven months later, spelled the end of the battleship. Bismarck, BTW, was in the company of Prinz Eugen, when she was attacked. Ironically, the crew of the Bismarck had trained to fight the
HMS Hood. When Hood was sunk, the crew of the Bismarck was surprised.
There were only two survivors. I forget how many there were from the Scharnhorst over two years earlier.

The Swordfish only disabled the steering gear. HMS King George V and HMS Rodney closed for the kill in the surface action. Of course, there is some controversy over who actually sank the Bismarck in the surface action though.