25 MT Hydrogen Bomb Accident

[Douglas]

In 1961, a US B-52 carrying two 25 MT hydrogen bombs accidentally released them near Goldsboro NC. One buried itself in a hillside when its parachute failed to open, while the other one gently glided down to earth. When the one with the failed parachute was recovered, it was discovered that five of its six safeties had failed. A 25 MT bomb was saved by precisely one safety not going off. Imagine if the United States had dropped a 25 MT bomb on itself in 1958...what sort of effects that would have on our national psyche, nuclear disarmament in general, politics, etc!

But to carry this a little further, I want to change the locale. B-52s were stationed at Carswell AFB, within Fort Worth, TX city limits. Imagine the same accident happening over downtown Fort Worth now. One day in July 1961, lets make it July 4, a B-52 has an accident, and several seconds later a 25 MT device is detonated at ground level in Fort Worth, TX.

I've done some initial calculations for this. It is likely that a ground burst over Fort Worth will kill 600,000 Americans within minutes, more than died in both World Wars combined. Buildings in Dallas will have shattered glass, but not too much other damage. Of course, this is before the fallout of a groundburst starts dispersing itself across Texas and wherever the wind may take it.

What do you think the effects of such a disaster would be?

[HUCK]

America's dignity is hurt by blowing a major city center up. The USSR probably laughes their ass off. The idea of 'stupid Americans' grows.

[alt_historian]

d'you have specific links for this incident? It would be interesting to read up on, but after a quick search I can't find it...

Any possibility the blame might be shifted to the Soviets? Some sort of 'accidental launch'...

[Thande]

Any possibility the blame might be shifted to the Soviets? Some sort of 'accidental launch'...

Taking it one step further, nuclear war in 1958?

[Douglas]

Hmmmm...happened in 1961, apparently, but there's no reason why it couldn't have happened in 1958, so I'll stick with the originally posited scenario.

http://www.cdi.org/Issues/NukeAccidents/Accidents.htm

January 24, 1961, Goldsboro, North Carolina

In what nearly became a nuclear catastrophe, a B-52 bomber on airborne alert carrying two nuclear weapons broke apart in midair. The B-52 experienced structural failure in its right wing and the aircraft's resulting breakup released the two weapons from a height of 2,000-10,000 feet. One of the bomb's parachutes deployed properly and that weapon's damage was minimal. However, the second bomb's parachute malfunctioned and the weapon broke apart upon impact, scattering its components over a wide area. According to Daniel Ellsberg, the weapon could have accidentally fired because "five of the six safety devices had failed." Nuclear physicist Ralph E. Lapp supported this assertion, saying that "only a single switch" had "prevented the bomb from detonating and spreading fire and destruction over a wide area."


Despite an extensive search of the waterlogged farmland where the weapon was believed to have landed, the bomb's highly enriched uranium core was never recovered. In order to prevent any discovery of the lost portion of the weapon, the Air Force purchased an easement which required that permission be obtained before any construction or digging could begin in the area. Three crew members were killed in the crash.


The accident was apparently so serious that it was reported to newly-elected President John F. Kennedy. According to Newsweek, President Kennedy was informed after the accident that "there had been more than 60 accidents involving nuclear weapons" since World War II, "including two cases in which nuclear-tipped anti-aircraft missiles were actually launched by inadvertence." As a result of the Goldsboro accident, the U.S. placed many new safety devices on its nuclear arsenal and the Soviet Union was encouraged to do the same.

I read the 25 MT figure in a book at the library, so I can't get that info right now, as its Sunday. :o

[kojak]

This happened in 1961, not 1958. The bombs were 2-2.5 megatons, not 25 megatons (the maximum yield of a Mark 39 was 3.8 megatons).

Here is a link. (http://www.ibiblio.org/bomb/)

[Douglas]

This happened in 1961, not 1958. The bombs were 2-2.5 megatons, not 25 megatons (the maximum yield of a Mark 39 was 3.8 megatons).

Here is a link. (http://www.ibiblio.org/bomb/)

My source indicated 25 MT, and since the incident could still take place in Fort Worth in 1958, I am standing by my original scenario. While the US claims to have never developed any bomb past (can't remember the figure but it was something like 10 MT), there have been many unconfirmed reports of 25 MT devices being carried, so 25 MT will be posited in this scenario.

Any thoughts as to the effects of such an event? :)

EDIT: Make date July 4, 1961.

[karl2025]

It's possible that the destruction of an American City by a nuclear weapon could start a war between the US and USSR due to misinformation.

But moving on from that, I think the USSR would be just as horrified as we would be. Every nation with nuclear weapons would rush to add in new safeties at least, and probably work to reduce the need to have so many. American sentiment against nuclear weapons would rise and nuclear power would be much less popular (Similar sentiments would occur elsewhere, but most popular in the US obviously).

Militarially, the US would most likely try to shift away from weapons that can just be lost and entrench more nukes into ICBMs, figuring that they're less likely to be lost in an accident.

[Douglas]

d'you have specific links for this incident? It would be interesting to read up on, but after a quick search I can't find it...

Any possibility the blame might be shifted to the Soviets? Some sort of 'accidental launch'...

I don't know, but I doubt it, although it would certainly be convenient for the government. A 25 MT blast would kill around 95% of people within a six mile radius, but when you have an urban area the size of Fort Worth, people are going to be looking into the sky when they see a B-52 fall apart, and debris start plummeting to earth. Chances are at least a handful of people are going to see this and survive.

[Thande]

This seems to have happened quite a few times in the US. I wonder how many times it happened in the USSR (not like they'd ever admit it...)

[Douglas]

It's possible that the destruction of an American City by a nuclear weapon could start a war between the US and USSR due to misinformation.

True. Looking at a map, Carswell AFB (the plane's home base) will be obliterated by the blast. People in Dallas are going to panic when windows shatter and they see a simply immense mushroom cloud over where Fort Worth was.

It won't be long before President Kennedy hears about it. What sort of contact will he have with the Soviet leadership? Will any of the Air Force generals be willing to tell him that it's possible for a device to have accidentally detonated?

But moving on from that, I think the USSR would be just as horrified as we would be. Every nation with nuclear weapons would rush to add in new safeties at least, and probably work to reduce the need to have so many. American sentiment against nuclear weapons would rise and nuclear power would be much less popular (Similar sentiments would occur elsewhere, but most popular in the US obviously).


True.

Militarially, the US would most likely try to shift away from weapons that can just be lost and entrench more nukes into ICBMs, figuring that they're less likely to be lost in an accident.

This is the sort of effect that would be interesting to learn more about. Would America's missile program be sped up? As a counterbalance, how many nuclear weapons is the United States going to think it needs, especially when people have a very anti-nuclear sentiment?

[Johnrankins]

My source indicated 25 MT, and since the incident could still take place in Fort Worth in 1958, I am standing by my original scenario. While the US claims to have never developed any bomb past (can't remember the figure but it was something like 10 MT), there have been many unconfirmed reports of 25 MT devices being carried, so 25 MT will be posited in this scenario.

Any thoughts as to the effects of such an event? :)

I don't think the US ever had any 25MT bombs in its arsenal. What in god's would be used FOR? A 1MT bomb easily obliterates Moscow.

[Douglas]

I don't think the US ever had any 25MT bombs in its arsenal. What in god's would be used FOR? A 1MT bomb easily obliterates Moscow.

Aha...but this is the 1950s! Why wouldn't we have a 25 MT bomb to make extra-sure? :p

More seriously, it could be used to completely nail a leadership bunker.

Any comment as to the scenario, though?

[HUCK]

I don't think the US ever had any 25MT bombs in its arsenal. What in god's would be used FOR? A 1MT bomb easily obliterates Moscow.
Just in case you need to blow the whole state of Kansas to hell and back.

[kojak]

I don't think the US ever had any 25MT bombs in its arsenal. What in god's would be used FOR? A 1MT bomb easily obliterates Moscow.The Mark 41 produced by the US was a 25 megaton weapon, I think the US was planning on upgrading it to a 35 megaton weapon.

The bombs carried in this scenario were Mark 39, which were 3.8 megaton maximum yield.

[Thande]

The Americans probably had a 25 MT bomb for the same reason the Soviets built a 100 MT bomb: because My Bomb's Bigger Than Your Bomb, My Bomb Is.

[HUCK]

The Americans probably had a 25 MT bomb for the same reason the Soviets built a 100 MT bomb: because My Bomb's Bigger Than Your Bomb, My Bomb Is.
Where do you drop that shit?:confused:

[Thande]

Where do you drop that shit?:confused:

Pardon...?

[Douglas]

The Mark 41 produced by the US was a 25 megaton weapon, I think the US was planning on upgrading it to a 35 megaton weapon.

The bombs carried in this scenario were Mark 39, which were 3.8 megaton maximum yield.

Wrong!

My scenario specifically stipulates that it is a 25 MT device going off over Fort Worth. The source I am using states that it was a 25 MT device. So, for the purposes of this scenario, it is a 25 MT device.

I would like you to comment on what you think would happen, but if you are going to otherwise not accept the original premise of the thread, you ought not to comment further.

EDIT: Editing my original scenario, make the date 1961.

[HUCK]

Pardon...?
Where do you drop a 100MT bomb?!?!?!?!? That like crushing a cockroach with a semi truck!

[kojak]

The source I am using states that it was a 25 MT device.Where is that source?

Thande, the Tsar Bomba was a 50 megaton weapon, the Soviets downgraded it from 100 megatons to reduce fallout.

[PMN1]

I don't think the US ever had any 25MT bombs in its arsenal. What in god's would be used FOR? A 1MT bomb easily obliterates Moscow.

A version of the B41 is supposed to have had a 25Mt yield and it seems the Titan II was a possible carrier for a 35MT warhead.

Here are some sites with that info

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/B41.html

http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/multimeg.html#U1

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/b41.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B41_nuclear_bomb

[Douglas]

Where is that source?

If you had bothered to read the thread, my source is in a school library which happens to be closed now. Don't post in this thread again unless you wish to comment on the scenario posited: 25 MT ground burst over Fort Worth, TX on July 4, 1961.

[Thande]

Where do you drop a 100MT bomb?!?!?!?!? That like crushing a cockroach with a semi truck!

You drop it on Novaya Zemlya to prove a point.

As Kojack said, they cut its yield in half first. They also modified it so it was much cleaner than any other nuke - otherwise it would have irradiated a massive area.

[Hnau]

I would be willing to comment and put in time for research on this thread, as I am intrigued by such an incident. HOWEVER, I am unwilling to spend such time on a POD that could likely never happen. So, if you want my participation, you must do one of two things:

1) Provide a source in which B-52s carried 25 MT nuclear devices.
2) Change the megatonnage of the POD to a number between 2 and 3.8, preferably 2.5 MT. Multiple sources have already been provided that back this information up.

Your school book might be wrong. They are often wrong. And why waste time on a timeline if it belongs in the ASB forum? Also, I will only participate in this discussion thoroughly if you shift the date to sometime before January 24, 1961. To have the event occur afterwards would be extremely silly, as there would be more precautions taken.

[kojak]

If you had bothered to read the thread, my source is in a school library which happens to be closed now. Don't post in this thread again unless you wish to comment on the scenario posited: 25 MT ground burst over Fort Worth, TX on July 4, 1961.The 25 megaton figure is false, you would know that if you bothered to read the link I had posted. You can have a ground burst over Fort Worth, just not using this specific accident.

Actually, fine, screw it, you can have your 25 megaton weapon if you want it so much; the effects, barring the fallout from the bomb remain fundamentally the same as a 2.5 megaton weapon. A study done a while back by the US Office of Technology Assessment (now defunct) using a 25 megaton air burst on Detroit calculated that there'd be roughly 2 million deaths and 1.5 million injuries; you can choose to extrapolate these figures for Fort Worth and Dallas.

This page (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/bomb/sfeature/25mtblast.html) is also helpful, it predicts the pressure damage caused by a 25 megaton air blast.

[Douglas]

All right, editing the scenario.

25 MT device. Wikipedia says that the B41 was carried by the B-52.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B41_nuclear_bomb

It was carried only by the B-52 Stratofortress and B-47 Stratojet.

January 24, 1961 is the date for the drop, coincidentally the same as the Goldsboro accident.

Now that it is clear that this is a similar sort of thing as Goldsboro, but not precisely the same, as it is a different weapon and a different place, what sort of comments do people have? :)

(Sorry for being rude earlier, but I really just want the scenario I'm thinking of to be discussed.)

[Hnau]

Alright, then we're cool. I'll formulate my thoughts...

[Jaded_Railman]

The B-41 was retired by the time your accident is supposed to happen.

[kojak]

The B-41 was retired by the time your accident is supposed to happen.The B41 had a service life from 1961 until it started to be withdrawn from 1963, if anything the date mentioned might be a little too early for the B41 to have entered service; but we should go with it. I think what Douglas wants to discuss is the effects that such an event would have.

[Douglas]

Bumppity bump bump.

[dv035]

Hi friends, first post here.

"Yielding a 25 megaton blast, the Mark 41 was the most powerful U.S. weapon ever deployed. It was a three stage TNT weapon. Two versions were produced, one "clean" and one "dirty." Two parachutes delayed detonation. 500 were produced between September 1960 and June 1962. They remained in service for many years. The last one was retired in July 1976."

http://www.strategic-air-command.com/weapons/nuclear_bomb_chart.htm

(Edited to add: On second look I see this is a privately owned website. I'm trying to corroborate this info from a mil or gov source.)

IMHO, this makes the scenario a valid one.

[Douglas]

In case you're still researching, Hnau, we'll assume that the B-41 in question was a "dirty" version, with its tertiary stage encased with U-238.

[kojak]

Just a quick nitpick: If the bomb actually did explode (safety fails), it would much more likely be an air burst explosion, rather than a ground burst explosion.

I'm not too sure though. I could be talking complete bollocks.

[Douglas]

Just a quick nitpick: If the bomb actually did explode (safety fails), it would much more likely be an air burst explosion, rather than a ground burst explosion.

I'm not too sure though. I could be talking complete bollocks.

Interesting, and I like it...it will make figuring devastation easier (with that 25 MT air burst calculator floating around), as well as increase the effect.

OK, sure. Lets go with a 25 MT air burst over Fort Worth.

Do you have any non-technical ideas about how that's going to play out? Especially the first, say, 24 hours after the detonation.

[Blue Max]

I don't think the Soviets would get blamed as a result of the tragedy. Indeed, I see Khrushchev somewhat mockingly offer to help the USA. (Part of the price will be the opportunity to examine the consequences of such a large nuclear blast over an urban area). Kennedy probably accepts.

Figure that over a Million people are likely to die in the incident, hundreds of thousands more are likely to develop cancer or other lower levels of radiation sickness. I suspect the USA would quickly restore order, but they would learn in a very terrible way what a nuclear weapon used against them.

I foresee the end of Strategic Air Command and road, rail, and ship transport being the likely US consequences. The optimistic scenario is that Khrushchev and Kennedy move into detente as a direct result, and respond to the tragedy with limits against nuclear weapons. Perhaps, even, a mutual agreement to avoid a 'first strike' of nuclear weapons. This scenario would probably result in nuclear weapons being pulled out of Turkey and Europe back into the USA, to respond to a nuclear attack rather than provoke one, while the Soviet Union pulls its nukes from Eastern Europe.

The Cuban Missile Crisis gets butterflied away, but its an open question whether these deals stick or not after Khrushchev.

[Douglas]

Bumpity bump bump...any thoughts on the scenario?

To refresh:

On January 24, 1961, the fifth day of the Kennedy presidency, a 25 MT hydrogen bomb falls when a catastrophic failure takes place aboard a B-52 bomber flying over Forth Worth, TX immediately after takeoff from Carswell AFB. Upon reaching its detonation altitude, its five safeties fail, resulting in a 25 megaton ground-level detonation over downtown Fort Worth.

95% of people within a six mile radius of the blast die within seconds. 50% of everyone within a twelve mile radius dies, and all survivors have second and third degree burns. Hundreds of thousands are dead. People in (relatively) nearby Dallas panic when windows shatter and they see a simply immense mushroom cloud over where Fort Worth was. No one will be able to get word out as to the actual cause of the detonation for several hours.

It won't be long before President Kennedy hears about it. What sort of contact will he have with the Soviet leadership? Will any of the Air Force generals be willing to tell him that it's possible for a device to have accidentally detonated? Will the generals even believe that it's possible?

[Blue Max]

I stand by my previous post.

A Nuclear accident of this magnitude would create riots in Dallas that would probably require military intervention to subdue. Furthermore, global politics would turn very heavily against nuclear weapons--even the Soviets would become somewhat scared that their own weapons could malfunction like this.

Whether this defrosts the Cold War or not depends on what happens next. In the worst case scenario, Khrushchev decides that he can win a WW3 confrontation against the Western Powers because the nuclear dimension is mostly out of the picture...

[burmafrd]

As someone who has actually worked with special weapons, a lot of this scenario is ASB. To start with, if the bomb started to break up there is no chance of a full fusion event. It is an incredibly precise and delicate matter to get a full event. If anything at all goes wrong you get the conventional explosive spreading the radioactive matter around a relatively small area.
Also, I have heard about this particular accident and the PROFESSIONALS who work with these items all the time never thought it was even close. You quote people who frankly would not know much about those particular weapons OR the incident. Something come up with 30 years later NEVER impresses me.
We did not carry the big boys on the 52's because they were TOO big and you wanted multiple weapons inside the bomb bay. I think the biggest one they ever carried was around 5 MT.

[CalBear]

Bumpity bump bump...any thoughts on the scenario?

To refresh:

On January 24, 1961, the fifth day of the Kennedy presidency, a 25 MT hydrogen bomb falls when a catastrophic failure takes place aboard a B-52 bomber flying over Forth Worth, TX immediately after takeoff from Carswell AFB. Upon reaching its detonation altitude, its five safeties fail, resulting in a 25 megaton ground-level detonation over downtown Fort Worth.

95% of people within a six mile radius of the blast die within seconds. 50% of everyone within a twelve mile radius dies, and all survivors have second and third degree burns. Hundreds of thousands are dead. People in (relatively) nearby Dallas panic when windows shatter and they see a simply immense mushroom cloud over where Fort Worth was. No one will be able to get word out as to the actual cause of the detonation for several hours.

It won't be long before President Kennedy hears about it. What sort of contact will he have with the Soviet leadership? Will any of the Air Force generals be willing to tell him that it's possible for a device to have accidentally detonated? Will the generals even believe that it's possible?


Impossible. Utterly impossible.

A scenario that requires a weapon that was never built, detonating in an area that it wouldn't have been, under circumstances that make such detonation impossible.

The incident showed five of six SAFETY interlocks had been defeated, not five of six steps from the weapon to detonate. There is a world of difference. Safety interlocks prevent unauthorized use, there are then the actual ARMING stages necessary to bring the weapon to "Hot". None of those steps had occurred, and could not, as the accident happened (or as you propose) HAVE occurred.

A VERY specific series of events have to occur in a breathtakingly small timespan for a nuclear weapon to actually detonate. Lacking ANY of them in the proper sequence results in a fizzle, where, at worst, you get a partial detonation of the HE surrounding the Pit. This can be very nasty, since it results in the scattering of the fissible material over a area as large as several blocks, something that qualifies as a bad thing. There are, therefore, an entirely separate set of constraints built into the weapons to avoid this event. The most basic of these is in the initial arming, until that happens, the bomb can be dropped from 40,000 feet and it WILL NOT EXPLODE.

IIRC, the weapons under discussion had the same double arming requirement as the other, pre-transistor weapons. the weapons officer had to enter a valid code into the weapon control panel & then 1) manually flip a set of knife switches that allowed the capacitors to charge & 2) throw a different switch that allowed a mechanical block that to be moved. Until all of these steps were completed the bomb was dead as Julius Caesar. Once the initial arming was completed, then, and only then, could the conditions related to the specific tactical situation be set (e.g. detonation height, drop distance before final arming, etc).

The best demonstration of the impossibility of this scenario is that it never happened. In fifty years of bombs being flown and trucked and carted about on planes, ships, subs, trucks, railway cars, and god knows what else IT NEVER HAPPENED. It didn't happen when B-29/50, B-36, B-47, B-52, B-58, A-3, A-5, A-6, Tu-4, Tu,-16, Tu-22, Tu-95 bombers carrying nukes crashed, collided, disintegrated in mid-air, caught fire in the runway, when subs sank, rail cars derailed and trucks crashed. It didn't happen when ham handed idiots with 7th grade educations loaded the weapons wrong, dropped them off the arming cart, left them out in the rain, in the heat or in the cold. It didn't happen to the super cautious Brits, the slightly less cautious French, the overly cocky Americans, the often indifferent Soviets, any of the "new" nuclear powers (not even North Korea, who couldn't even get their TOWER SHOT to detonate), despite enough Broken Arrow accidents to give you nightmares for ten lifetimes.

If the damned things were as easy to set off as the scenario indicates there would be a dozen cities with fused glass parking areas.

[burmafrd]

You took the time to be a lot more specific Cal. I could not be bothered.

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

[quote=Douglas;1902407]Bumpity bump bump...any thoughts on the scenario?

One tangential side effect: Lee Harvey Oswald's mom and brother lived in Fort Worth in 1961. Assuming they were among the victims, he probably won't settle in Dallas if/when he returns to the U.S.A.

[FlyingDutchman]

I assume CalBear is right.


It won't be long before President Kennedy hears about it. What sort of contact will he have with the Soviet leadership? Will any of the Air Force generals be willing to tell him that it's possible for a device to have accidentally detonated? Will the generals even believe that it's possible?


Even if it went off, wouldn't the cooler heads in office prevail?
After all, not a single Russian ICBM or bomber has been spotted.

When would the American government know it was an American bomb?
Would they know within a day?
I'm assuming there are slight differences in material and amount of radiation between Soviet and American bombs which could be tested?

[thor2006]

But it will provide the perfect opurtunity to make the soviets the scapegoat. Nobody in the military or in the goverment would like to admit that it was their mistake, and some would likely want to start WW3 rather than admit their mistake.

[Ghost 88]

But it will provide the perfect opurtunity to make the soviets the scapegoat. Nobody in the military or in the goverment would like to admit that it was their mistake, and some would likely want to start WW3 rather than admit their mistake.
Nobody in the Government was stupid enough to start WW III over an accident cause by a plane crash. Most assuredly not JFK who was the only one who could have started this revenge scenario.

[thor2006]

But he could be lied to too. Or the population manipulated into thinking it was the soviets. Also I consider this scenario to be verry unlikly both the accident and the reaction I propose.

[The Sandman]

Well, maybe ASBs who wanted to prevent the Kennedy assassination did it.

[userid]

I assume CalBear is right.



Even if it went off, wouldn't the cooler heads in office prevail?
After all, not a single Russian ICBM or bomber has been spotted.

When would the American government know it was an American bomb?
Would they know within a day?
I'm assuming there are slight differences in material and amount of radiation between Soviet and American bombs which could be tested?

They wouldnt need a bomber to deliver the bomb could of been shipped in with a few neutral country's as the go between. The usa wouldnt want to say it was one of their bombs and anyone that saw it dropped would be dead so they could say anything they wanted.

[Barry Bull]

But he could be lied to too. Or the population manipulated into thinking it was the soviets. Also I consider this scenario to be verry unlikly both the accident and the reaction I propose.


Even though the SAC commander at that time, General LeMay, is well known to be a hardcore hawk, it is just utterly impossible for the US military to cover a nuclear accident by launching WWIII. US military was actually realizing the futileness of nuclear warfare and the then Joint Chief of Staff, General Maxwell Taylor, is promoting the implementation of the 'Gradual Escalation' doctrine, which calls for flexible use for all nuclear and tactical assets and very differenet from the prior 'massive retaliation' doctrine.

Besides, it'w would be difficult to frame the accident as a Soviet attack. The ground zero is not exactly military significant . Why the USSR would strike a middle sized city first? Also, the US already possessed a early warning system at that time. The President had so many way to by pass the high eschlon and ask the people on the ground the reality.

[Barry Bull]

They wouldnt need a bomber to deliver the bomb could of been shipped in with a few neutral country's as the go between. The usa wouldnt want to say it was one of their bombs and anyone that saw it dropped would be dead so they could say anything they wanted.


First of all, there are ways to determine which country that the fission materials the bomb used come from.

Secondly, there is no way that the two superpower would let any of the nuclear weapon to leave the chain of custody and hand over to even friednly non- nuclear countries in the height of Cold War. All the tac nukes deployed overseas remained firmly in US control. Besides, we are talking a very large and heavy bomb here.

[Barry Bull]

The best demonstration of the impossibility of this scenario is that it never happened. In fifty years of bombs being flown and trucked and carted about on planes, ships, subs, trucks, railway cars, and god knows what else IT NEVER HAPPENED. It didn't happen to the super cautious Brits, the slightly less cautious French, the overly cocky Americans, the often indifferent Soviets, any of the "new" nuclear powers (not even North Korea, who couldn't even get their TOWER SHOT to detonate), despite enough Broken Arrow accidents to give you nightmares for ten lifetimes.


There were a lot radiological accidents, but no single one nuclear accident. Even Cheryboyl didn't count as nuclear accident in the sense that the reactor didn't go critical and blow up....most civilian nuclear reactors, including the old USSR graphite core reactors, are just not capable of doing that.

Don't forget we are talking about weapons that are considered as nations' prestige and worth more than the same weight of gold. The recent hype of 'nuclear briefcase' has added much confusion.

[Umbral]

While I don't see a nuke going off accidentally from a fall, there remains the, admittedly minute, possibiltiy of impact-induced mechanical compression triggering a chain reaction without the detonators being involved at all.

[CalBear]

While I don't see a nuke going off accidentally from a fall, there remains the, admittedly minute, possibiltiy of impact-induced mechanical compression triggering a chain reaction without the detonators being involved at all.


Actually much less than minute. Much less than astronomical. The requirement is for complete implosion, not mere compression. If we were discussing a Uranium "gun-type" bomb (like Little Boy) a accidental compression detonation would be a vanishingly small, but finite possibility; that is why the U.S. never used them for regular deterrence or active patrol flights. (It also disassembled them as soon as possible once the Pu based implosion weapons were in inventory.) Implosion requires perfect timing of the detonation of all of the shaped explosive panels, if even a single HE panel fails to detonate on command (even if only be a fraction of a second) the bomb will fail to ignite. (And, yes, getting that timing right before transistors and fiber optics was a BITCH.)

[burmafrd]

With any modern nuclear weapon (from 1960 on) there really is NO chance of an accidental full fision/fusion event. As Cal pointed out, its incredible what has to happen to make it work for an implosion device.
No bomb or warhead dropped or shot or whatever is going to go off except as partial detonation of the conventional material. And as more and more insensitive explosive was invented, that possibility now is virtually non existent.

Now prior to fail safe and positive PAL devices, early 50's late 40's, an accidental detonation was more possible. BUT not from an accident like a plane crash, etc. Maybe if a cruder version was hit by lightning at just the right spot....while it was sitting out in the open under a tree in a thunderstorm, with the whole weapon outside of its casing.....

[bookmonkey786]

Where do you drop a 100MT bomb?!?!?!?!? That like crushing a cockroach with a semi truck!

Its totally impractical and a huge waste. But then again thats the point. Like why would anyone buy a $500,000 sports car that can barely fit 2 people and gets less than 5 MPG. :D

The mentality is the same its one huge dick waving exercise. :rolleyes: