WW3 starts next week

[Amit]

Alrighty, I'm sure you all are aware of whats going on in Ukraine these last couple of weeks.

Do you see this as the beginning of ww3? I mean, both sides openly said that civil was was about to ensue. So Im guessing pretty soon the EU, and Russia will get involved, with the RUssians supporting Mr Yanukovych.

So lets say the opposition gets sick of waiting for the supreme court to make their decision and some rogue elements start some stuff...riots, general strikes that kinda stuff. So Mr Yanukovych takes control and declares martial law..that doesnt work. Having close ties to Putin, he asks for military aid from Russia, which they are glad to give. The Russian army sends some "peace keeping" troops in, and systematically cleans the rebels out.
THe rebels at the same time, ask for help from the West, and even though reluctant at first, NATO intervenes...

anybody good at making alt hist...feel free to continue.

[WngMasterD]

Can you gimmie an overveiw of what happend, im scetchy on the details

[General_Paul]

I see the EU making some tough decisions, war with russia is like playing Russian Roulette, one one hand, you MIGHT be able to count on USA intervention, because, after all, the USA is still involved in the middle eastern conflicts (IE Iraq and Afghanistan), plus, its providing funding to not only the Israli's, but also to Japan, Pakistan, many of the NAFTA nations, so, American involvement might end up being at a minimum. On the other hand, the Russian military cleaning out these rebels is basically an infringement on the Geneva Convention, the rules of war say you. Not good for russia, they've got blood all over their hands, and no where, or no one to wipe that blood off on. I see Poland immediatly mobalizing its army, the germans voulenteering to send some divisions in to help. Since Gerhard Schroder is an able diplomat, he'll try to defuse the situation, but, Putin won't back down. So, we've got the Russian military commiting acts of murder, we've got a rigged election, Polish forces mobalizing for all out war, AND, to top it off, Germany voulenteering divisions to go to war from there. Not good...with Putin in charge, the whole nation will be ready for war in no time. Not to mention, all the oil reserves in the Caspian and in Siberia. To top it all off, the titanium deposits in Siberia and the Pig Iron deposits (Pig Iron= non-Refined steel, I may be wrong, check me on this if I am), Russia can pretty much be self sufficiant on everything, including manpower. Sure, it'll be like the USA post Pearl Harbor, just lifting its self out of a depression, with a global war to fight. I see possible Japanese and Chinese intervention in the Asian theatre of war. Putin isn't stupid enough to go Nuclear, so, we're looking at a conventional war fought in the skies over Europe, and on the ground... please, expand on this, I invite you to!

[carlton_bach]

Utterly implausible. For one thing, the EU's military forces (and especially Germany's) are designed for an almost purely defensive role. The moment the German government volunteered major troop deployments anywhere without being attacked, there'd be mass protests (there were big demonstrations about Afghanistan and 'good cause' doesn't get much clearer than that). Next, you have to consider that both Russia and the EU know a war would be economically disastrous. Add to that the uncertain diplomatic situation and the nuclerar threat (Putin is not stupid enough to go nuclear, but he is astute enough to understand the power of the nuclear option) - no, it would need much bigger casus belli. My worsdt case scenario estimate is: Russian troops cross into Ukraine and 'clear up' protesters, Prague-style. There is fighting, some are killed, refugees flood into Poland. Poland mobilises its armed forces, other NATO forces are deployed forward into Poland, Germany's railway travellers find their schedules disrupted for a few days. The Russian troops behave with characteristic restraint and Yukashenko, Lech Walesa and Vladimir Klitchko are killed. Public outcry, a UN resolution, a vetoed UNSC resolution, economic sanctions against Russia and Ukraine and a long cold spell follow. Conscientious objection in Germany drops, the draft debate is shut down and German-Polish relations get a lot better. Politicians all over the western world wipe egg off their faces and reactivate the Russia desks.

If an EU-Russia war were to happen, I think the outcome (barring nuclear weapons used) would depend on political will. THe EU could beat Russia - seeral times over - but it would need to make great sacrifices to do it. I don't think the people of Europe would be ready to see that happening, so Putin is more likely to 'win' an early negotiated peace. Of course, it does depend on the cause of war. If anyone invaded Russia, forget it. They kind of take badly to that, historically, I hear :)

[DMA]

I agree with carlton_bach. I don't see the West getting too far involved & you can forget about any war. Russian peacekeepers firing on the rebels will be about as far as any fighting gets.


The Russians, though, won't stay for long. Putin will be aware of international condemnation & he won't want Russia to be internationally isolated. So he'll have the Russian troops withdraw once Yanukovych has things under control.

If there are any boycotts etc, I don't see these restrictions lasting very long, in fact they may not be put in place at all, if the Russian involvement doesn't last beyond a week or two. In other words the Russian actually do conduct peacekeeping operations only. But yeah, a few nervous & worried spy agencies (& western governments) would probably reopen their old Soviet espionage departments now that Putin has decided to act in a rather aggressive militaristic fashion.

[Gladi]

Bright day
If Russian army intervened on behalf of Janukovicz, I would volunteer... to fight for Juszczenko.
And Ukraine is not Afghanistan...

[ljofa]

Putin isn't stupid - he knows that much of Russia's economic success depends on being able to sell raw materials to Europe for manufacture. He could sell some stuff to China but would be nowhere near enough.

[Gladi]

And btw parts of armed forces acknowledged Yushcenko, in case of use of force it would be nowhere near a one-way shootout.

[Peter]

Seems like Yu is losing it. He hesitated, he didn''t ceace the day and know Ya will win.

[wkwillis]

Putin has spent the last couple of years fucking over the Russian army. He tries something and they put his head on a stick. This is not good news. They still have fifteen thousand nuclear weapons floating around. Think how much North Korea or Iran or Iraq's government in exile would pay for a few hundred of those. Not one or two, but one or two hundred.
What's the point when we retreat from Iraq? Before Dallas, Atlanta, Montgomery, Chattanooga, Ft. Lauderdale, Omaha, Topeka, and Richmond, or after another dozen?
Australia, here I come.

[MerryPrankster]

Putin has spent the last couple of years fucking over the Russian army. He tries something and they put his head on a stick. This is not good news. They still have fifteen thousand nuclear weapons floating around. Think how much North Korea or Iran or Iraq's government in exile would pay for a few hundred of those. Not one or two, but one or two hundred.
What's the point when we retreat from Iraq? Before Dallas, Atlanta, Montgomery, Chattanooga, Ft. Lauderdale, Omaha, Topeka, and Richmond, or after another dozen?
Australia, here I come.

Iraq has a goverment in exile? I thought most of them were dead or in the pokey, with the remainder hooking up with insurgent factions (mostly Sunnis in the Triangle) to take revenge.

If Saddam and some others had fled to Iraq, who would take them in and let them have a gov't in exile? It be really funny if it was Iran...

[wkwillis]

Putin looks to be backing down from a military intervention in the Ukraine. Since Yushchenko is the president, he can okay imports of military equipment, so the Ukranian government is going to have to fight.
Unless Putin is just giving the Spetznaz time to set up an attack. One of the weirdest delusions that people have is that if you hit someone fast it's the same as hitting them hard. It isn't, it just pisses them off. You would think they would learn.
They can't have another election or they will lose even worse this time. So they will fight or negotiate a political exile.
Meanwhile, if Russia falls apart, there are a lot of advance weapons that will be showing up in Iraq pretty soon. Effective modern sniper rifles, modern antitank weapons, etc. It was the antihelicopter weapons we gave the resistance that made the Russians leave Afghanistan. Some Russian officer is going to return the favor if Putin loses control. We would be run out of Iraq if they had weapons that could actually get through our vests. Not to mention erase our armored vehicles from a mile away.
Our aircraft are far enough away because of our guided weapons that they probably will survive if they fly in from Diego Garcia. No helicopers, of course.
I don't even want to think about the bioweapons that could go floating around.
Maybe I should move to Antarctica instead of Australia.

[stodge]

Well, at the moment I'm NOT packing my bags and re-stocking the bomb shelter. I suspect Yuschenko will end up President of western Ukraine while Yanukovich will lead the Donetsk region into a Federation with Russia.

This won't please anyone but will recognise the political schism in Ukraine. However, problems will arise as and when western Ukraine seeks to join the EU and NATO.