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Hannibal.Caesar
November 19th, 2007, 07:18 PM
This probably has been written about before, but WI Spain never underwent the Reconquista, or in the very least it was unsuccessful? Therefore, the Iberian peninsula is split into three separate countries: Portugal, a northern Christian Spain, and a southern Muslim Spain. Barring discussions about the POD, what affect would this have on the present day?

I think it would be safe to say that the Christian area of Spain would be much poorer than OTL, as it would not have access to the Mediterranean ports and the growing lands of the south. And in regards to the Muslim regions of Spain, I'd hope that the liberalizing effects of Europe would lead it towards being a healthy (politically and economically) Muslim nation. However, that might just be me trying to be optimistic.

Ibn Warraq
November 19th, 2007, 07:24 PM
America doesn't get discovered for much longer. I don't think the Muslim rulers would have been quite so willing to finance an expedition that looked like such a wild goose chase.

Faeelin
November 19th, 2007, 07:45 PM
America doesn't get discovered for much longer. I don't think the Muslim rulers would have been quite so willing to finance an expedition that looked like such a wild goose chase.

How was it a wild goose chase?

After all, everyone knew the world was round; and you'd still have people off of Newfoundland.

Perhaps the Andalusis would have a desire to get involved in the trade with the Gold Coast.

Anyway, the effects of this are so vast that it's really almost impossible to say for certain.

carlton_bach
November 19th, 2007, 07:56 PM
How was it a wild goose chase?

After all, everyone knew the world was round; and you'd still have people off of Newfoundland.

Perhaps the Andalusis would have a desire to get involved in the trade with the Gold Coast.


Columbus' idea was a bit daft, really. Any serious cartographer would have known, certainly one with the libraries in Cordoba or Sevilla at his disposal.

Another question is the effect on knowledge diffusion. A lot of the 12th-century Renaissance was owed to studies in translated manuscripts under the tutelage of the Christian Spanish kings. Without the Reconquista, and without a significant population of Arabic-speaking Christians under their rule, that might simply not have happened.

SRT
November 19th, 2007, 07:57 PM
Even if the discovery of the new world isn't butterflied away, I'd say it still takes quite a bit longer and isn't so monogamously Spanish (obviously, as there isn't any such thing as "Spain" in this TL, since even after the Reconquista, the Iberian Peninsula was still divided between at least four different political bodies). Certainly, if Iberia is three different countries, probably none of them have the military might that Castile did post-Reconquista, and that would make conquering the Aztec, Maya, Inca, and other Amerindian groups much harder. So, while at first this TL might seem like Muslimwank, it could certainly become Mesoamericawank.

One thing I'm not sure of -- how close are the relationships of the the Muslim kingdom(s?) on the Peninsula and the ones in North Africa? Are they close allies, or are they in fact the same countries, or are they completely alienated from each other?

I could see a surviving and prosperous Al-Andalus be interested in exploring the coast of Africa, though.

EDIT: I just thought, in this TL there's no Treaty of Tordesillas, or, at least, not one presided over by the Pope (aka not one that the Muslims really have any reason to go along with).

Tocomocho
November 19th, 2007, 08:28 PM
This probably has been written about before, but WI Spain never underwent the Reconquista, or in the very least it was unsuccessful? Therefore, the Iberian peninsula is split into three separate countries: Portugal, a northern Christian Spain, and a southern Muslim Spain. Barring discussions about the POD, what affect would this have on the present day?

In such scenario it's more likely to see "Spain" divided in many Christian countries. Depending of the POD you could end with independent Leon, Castile, Navarre and Aragon, but NO Portugal...

Just my two cents. It's quite annoying to see Portugal raising in all TLs, even if the Andalusi northern frontier remains on the shores of the Douro.

By the way, where it's supposed to be the frontier between Iberian Islam and Christianity in that scenario?

Tocomocho
November 19th, 2007, 08:32 PM
Perhaps the Andalusis would have a desire to get involved in the trade with the Gold Coast.

They already were, though that trade came on camel caravans through the Sahara. They didn't have an incentive to develop new ships designs, nor to think in crossing the Atlantic. As I said in a similar thread, a Muslim Spain will not build the first caravel.

carlton_bach
November 19th, 2007, 08:46 PM
One thing I'm not sure of -- how close are the relationships of the the Muslim kingdom(s?) on the Peninsula and the ones in North Africa? Are they close allies, or are they in fact the same countries, or are they completely alienated from each other?


Yes.

All of the above were at one point true. The Muslim West was a pretty dynamic and changeable place, and is rather notorious with historians for its extreme political swings (from empire-building to maximal fragmentation, from brutal zealotry to easygoing tolerance, and from vicious aggression to near-helplessness in military matters.

carlton_bach
November 19th, 2007, 08:50 PM
They already were, though that trade came on camel caravans through the Sahara. They didn't have an incentive to develop new ships designs, nor to think in crossing the Atlantic. As I said in a similar thread, a Muslim Spain will not build the first caravel.

If you wanted it to happen, an idea would be to stabilise a situation where a Muslim Spain and a Muslim Morocco are hostile to each other. OT this didn't work because al-Andalus was militarily vulnerable and for much of its history could only continue to exist with the resources of North Africa, so any conflict weakened it to the point where the choice was surrender to the Christians or the Africans. ATL, butterflying away the threat on the northern frontier, a more stable Muslim Spain might well come to resent their southern neighbours' control of the trans-Saharan trade routes.

Tocomocho
November 19th, 2007, 08:51 PM
One thing I'm not sure of -- how close are the relationships of the the Muslim kingdom(s?) on the Peninsula and the ones in North Africa? Are they close allies, or are they in fact the same countries, or are they completely alienated from each other?

Well, symplifying, everytime Al-Andalus was united and strong, and the Atlas united and strong also, relations between them were bad. If one of them is united but the other divided and weakened, you can expect the big boy trying to subdue the little pygmies: Al Andalus invaded Africa in the 10th century, and Africa (through the works of the Almoravids, Almohads and Marinids) invaded Al Andalus in the 12th, 13th and 14th centuries. In all the cases the conquests didn't last and the feelings between their peoples didn't improve at all... most likely the other way. Only when both sides of the Straits were on the ropes, their relations did go well. But even in those cases the situation was far from considering the neighbour a friend. Fez didn't send any help when Granada asked desperately for one in the 1480s, despite their kings were reputed good friends. Granada's fall didn't cause any cry inthe Muslim world, either... that came much later. Many people use to overstimate the impact of religion in the politics of that time. Don't take me wrong, if one of the sides is clearly stronger than the other a western analogue of the Ottoman Empire is possible, but if both are around the same strengh, you can expect something more like the Ottoman/Persian rivalry, with the Christians and the Ottoman themselves as occasional allies or enemies of one side.

Tocomocho
November 19th, 2007, 08:59 PM
If you wanted it to happen, an idea would be to stabilise a situation where a Muslim Spain and a Muslim Morocco are hostile to each other. OT this didn't work because al-Andalus was militarily vulnerable and for much of its history could only continue to exist with the resources of North Africa, so any conflict weakened it to the point where the choice was surrender to the Christians or the Africans. ATL, butterflying away the threat on the northern frontier, a more stable Muslim Spain might well come to resent their southern neighbours' control of the trans-Saharan trade routes.

That would be a good scenario. One in which Al Andalus and the Maghreb can put a real fight in the seas. In that case some Ahmed the Navigator could raise and try to reach the riches of Ghana from the sea.

Faeelin
November 19th, 2007, 09:08 PM
They already were, though that trade came on camel caravans through the Sahara. They didn't have an incentive to develop new ships designs, nor to think in crossing the Atlantic. As I said in a similar thread, a Muslim Spain will not build the first caravel.

They will if Morocco is controlled by their enemies.

The Caravel might take longer, I admit.

Faeelin
November 19th, 2007, 09:10 PM
Columbus' idea was a bit daft, really. Any serious cartographer would have known, certainly one with the libraries in Cordoba or Sevilla at his disposal.


I dunno. What are a bunch of Germans doing, proposing the same thing around the same time? And the English looking for Braseal? It seems like there was something in the water.

M79
November 20th, 2007, 12:07 AM
The Inka might dominate more of South America by the time they are found, perhaps enough to start colonizing the mouth of the Silver River, southern Brazil, much of Colombia, and perhaps parts of Venezuela. Mesoamerica is likely to be a patchwork of city-states as the Aztec are on their way out. There might be a more permanent Cherokee or Creek civilization in the Southeast, and perhaps there are more recognizable trade patterns. Mesoamerican civilizations were playing with the wheel and metalworking, not that their weapons were useless against the Spaniards though. I think the English or Scandinavians will eventually find Labrador and start colonizing from New England as we know it through the East Coast with the rest of Europe eventually following them. Spain is a rich prize that *someone* will try for eventually, and I could see a later Crusade heading down into Iberia to try to take the place back for the Christians.

Ridwan Asher
June 24th, 2008, 10:29 AM
Just bumping for the hell out of it.... :D

Joseph Solis in Australia
June 24th, 2008, 11:36 AM
This probably has been written about before, but WI Spain never underwent the Reconquista, or in the very least it was unsuccessful? Therefore, the Iberian peninsula is split into three separate countries: Portugal, a northern Christian Spain, and a southern Muslim Spain. Barring discussions about the POD, what affect would this have on the present day?

I think it would be safe to say that the Christian area of Spain would be much poorer than OTL, as it would not have access to the Mediterranean ports and the growing lands of the south. And in regards to the Muslim regions of Spain, I'd hope that the liberalizing effects of Europe would lead it towards being a healthy (politically and economically) Muslim nation. However, that might just be me trying to be optimistic.

The scenario for the Muslim Spain would be: Northern Spain is poorer than in OTL. In Southern Spain is much richer and powerful than in OTL. I think Muslim Spain would be most liberal Muslim nation and Christian Spain in Northern Spain would be the most conservative Christian nation in Europe.

In terms of population, Southern Spain is more populated than in OTL. Cordova would be compared to Paris or London in terms of population and economic importance. Southern Spain GDP per capita for 2007 would be US$40,000 per person with 50 million person in Southern Spain. In Northern Spain, the GDP per capita for 2007 would be US$25,000 per person with 10 million person.

In terms of language, Mozarabic (the mixture of Iberian Romance and Arabic languages) would be predominant than Castillian in OTL.

rcduggan
June 24th, 2008, 01:34 PM
Why would there be a random existing Portugal? :mad: That was not bound to happen.

If there were no Reconquista - say Asturias was smashed early on, then West Francia collapsed so there is no aid for the reconquest (besides the Normans, but let's say their significant contribution doesn't happen either) - the caliphate of Cordoba would survive somewhat longer. However, I think it would eventually collapse into taifa kingdoms, as it did in OTL.

037771
June 24th, 2008, 02:11 PM
There was an article written in a Counterfactual History book of the 30s. I havent read it, but it was the same one where Churchill posited the victory of Lee at Gettysburg. In short, the scenario is that Granada survives, but somehow its northern rival Spain never comes to terms with its right to exist- so in WW1 the two fight against each other on the peninsula, Granada for the Allies and Spain for the Central Powers.

el t
June 24th, 2008, 03:14 PM
This would be more feasible had the Muslims took control of the entire country, up to the Pyrenees mountains.

shmulik923
June 24th, 2008, 04:15 PM
And in regards to the Muslim regions of Spain, I'd hope that the liberalizing effects of Europe would lead it towards being a healthy (politically and economically) Muslim nation. However, that might just be me trying to be optimistic.
I find it hard to take the above statement seriously. The liberalizing effects of middle ages Europe? Please. Al-Andalus was in its time one of the most liberal states in Europe. Far more literary, and far more tolerant than its Christian neighbors. Indeed, as carlton_bach stated, Christian Europe owes much of the base of its liberalization, the Renaissance, to the works and manuscripts of muslim Spain.
Another question is the effect on knowledge diffusion. A lot of the 12th-century Renaissance was owed to studies in translated manuscripts under the tutelage of the Christian Spanish kings. Without the Reconquista, and without a significant population of Arabic-speaking Christians under their rule, that might simply not have happened.

And to be sure, this scenario would turn out much differently for the Jews. For one, with no Reconquista, there would follow no Inquisition as the Jews of Sepharad would be protected by the Muslim regime. As there is no Spanish Diaspora, there would be less and less incentive for jews to eventually settle in Poland, a land where only the those who profited from their labor (the nobles; only 10% of the population) wanted them there. Why bother when Spain offers real tolerance? Ashkenazic Jewry might never develop.

Broz
June 24th, 2008, 05:05 PM
muslim iberia was imensly more tolerant than north african muslim states, and the culture and art as well as sciences of warious kinds were flourishing, and libraries full of transcripts of acient texts and warious filosofic schools of thought were abundant

all this would get transfered to europe well in time for the renesance

after the reconquista fails or is stillborn there might not be any more attempts to reconquer spain as the crusades were a dead deal and noone other had much interest in what from the european point of wiew was a lot of sun scorched muslim rocks and mountains

the best chance of no reconquista/failed reconquista is a strong unified prosperous califate as it was in OTL before it colapsed into civil war

no visigot army could seriously hurt such a state

so the big problem of this timeline is stability of the califate

as for discovery of america, well columbus might simply get muslim sponsors, ewer think of that?
ok thats unlikely... maybe portugall might seek more land abroad
or some other expedition gets there first
aniway its two whole continents, someone will stumble upon them soon enough, maybe even in the same century

on the other hand this might, in time, help work out the animosity betveen christian europe and the rest of the muslim world, as spain might become a bridge that anables both sides to trade profitably without having to actually face each other, thus solving the problem posed by the muslim blocade of pasage to india

sonicwind123
June 24th, 2008, 05:18 PM
Without a unified Spain, I can't see the conquest of the new world by Spain, which leads to a number of interesting developments. Without the gold from the new world, does Austria still grow into a major player, or remain a backwater kingdom. Then if does stay a backwater kingdom, does this allow for other powers in Eastern Europe to raise, or do the Ottomans dominate this region as well. The gold did help pay for the defense of Austria in the late 17th century. Then do the English, and France take more of the content without a rivalry from Spain. Also, the reformation would most likely take a different path, with Spain not in control of Rome. One would think, that the rivalry between Christian Spain, and France would be less, do to a common enemy, as well as the rivalry between Christian Spain and England. Also do you have the Crusades go on long with the attempt to take back Spain. I have read in a couple of book, that the retaking of Spain was more just part of the Crusades across Europe and the Holy Land.

Broz
June 24th, 2008, 07:11 PM
without a strong Austria Ottomans rule most of OTL Hungary, and there is not much to stop them from sacking Viena ewery so often but the swamps in panonia

possibly there would be a difrent reconquista, with a muslim army unifying all of the Iberian penisula and stoping at the French border

sonicwind123
June 24th, 2008, 10:09 PM
without a strong Austria Ottomans rule most of OTL Hungary, and there is not much to stop them from sacking Viena ewery so often but the swamps in panonia

possibly there would be a difrent reconquista, with a muslim army unifying all of the Iberian penisula and stoping at the French border

You also have a situation with a Weak Austria, for Poland to keep its power, or Prussia/another Germain state to come to power sooner.

I don't see, the reconquest of the northern part of Spain by the Muslim Kingdoms. The reason this is so, is that the British, or more then likely French would prevent it. That being said, the possibility of France to expand into at Northern Spain is high.

rad_vsovereign
June 24th, 2008, 11:42 PM
A lot of people said that Al Andalus is militarily vulnerable.
That boggles me. I mean, when the Almoravids & Almohads ruled, just how strong were they vis-s-vis the Christians? How many were their soldiers & their muslim subjects?

Anyone?

rcduggan
June 25th, 2008, 02:18 AM
Well, at first the Almoravids were more than a match for the Christian states (see Battle of Sagrajas). But when the Christians united together, I think they were more powerful than the Almoravids (IE: retaking of Saragossa). I can't say for the Almohads, because I don't know as much about them.

Maharajah
June 25th, 2008, 02:26 AM
Well, for one thing, the rest of Europe would be much more hostile to the Spanish states, and might even fear them similar to how they freared the ottomans, having muslim countries on mainland europe. But of course Spain wouldn't be invading the rest Europe like the Ottomans, so the effect wouldn't be that great. Probably the muslim rulers would be more tolerant of other religions, too.

Joseph Solis in Australia
June 25th, 2008, 11:05 AM
I find it hard to take the above statement seriously. The liberalizing effects of middle ages Europe? Please. Al-Andalus was in its time one of the most liberal states in Europe. Far more literary, and far more tolerant than its Christian neighbors. Indeed, as carlton_bach stated, Christian Europe owes much of the base of its liberalization, the Renaissance, to the works and manuscripts of muslim Spain.


And to be sure, this scenario would turn out much differently for the Jews. For one, with no Reconquista, there would follow no Inquisition as the Jews of Sepharad would be protected by the Muslim regime. As there is no Spanish Diaspora, there would be less and less incentive for jews to eventually settle in Poland, a land where only the those who profited from their labor (the nobles; only 10% of the population) wanted them there. Why bother when Spain offers real tolerance? Ashkenazic Jewry might never develop.

No Reconquista, No Spanish diaspora in the Americas and there would be no Portugal.

Condottiero
June 25th, 2008, 11:42 AM
Why do you say there would be more tolerace for the jews? Jews were tolerated initially in al-Andalus because they were more reliable than the christians. They had suffered under visigothic rule and prefered muslims to christians. Once the islamic society in al-Andalus was more homogeneous, the jews were seen as a threat to homogeneity and they were not tolerated (that is why IOTL lots of jews settled in christian Hispania*, even though there were periodic "progroms" against them there).

If you have a more successful al-Andalus the jews and the christian minority would be seen as a dangerous threat and dealt according to it. You have also the integrist movements in northern Africa that would have expanded to al-Andalus.


* That is Spain and Portugal. Portugal is not something that would appear ASBishly.

carlton_bach
June 25th, 2008, 12:38 PM
A lot of people said that Al Andalus is militarily vulnerable.
That boggles me. I mean, when the Almoravids & Almohads ruled, just how strong were they vis-s-vis the Christians? How many were their soldiers & their muslim subjects?


Both the Amoravids and Almohads were not dynasties from Al Andalus. Basically, they were the lesser of two evils, powerful protectors against the Christian princes to the north, but for all the shared religious background, foreigners. Claiming them as evidence fore the military power of Muslim Spain is like pointing out that the Prussians, for all their vaunted military might, never took Warsaw between 1780 and 1914, therefore Poland must have been powerful.