Confederacy W/O War

[NapoleonXIV]

WI the Union had done what (I think) Lincoln had first suggested be done with the Confederacy, that is "wayward sisters, go in peace"? What if the Union had decided the South, for a variety of reasons, just wasn't worth a war. How would the CSA develop then?

[David S Poepoe]

I think you better find out if Lincoln ever said that, since that certainly isn't anything the new Republican Party would endorse. If the South isn't worth fighting over the entire United States will fall apart. Those abolitionalists in New England may take New England out of the Union also. I also don't quite think the observation that McClellan would have offered peace to the Confederacy is all that right either. He certainly distanced himself from the Peace Democrats platform. He probably would have down whatever was possible to get the South to rejoin the Union.

Had the South been allowed go then you would probably find a Confederacy even more agrarian centered than in OTL and much slower to industrially develop. No Confederate conquests of Cuba, Nicaragua, Angola, the Philippines or wherever, as suggested by others upon this website.

[Diamond]

I'd guess you'd have a very, very weak government. By the end of the 1870s, probably 2 or 3 states (at least) will have seceded from the CSA over various issues. More will likely follow. After all, there is no strong central government to really contest it, and I'd imagine the US will be covertly supporting CSA-secession movements in the hopes of regaining lost territory. Eventually some of these states will petition the US for re-admittance to the Union.

I can see Texas trying to go it alone, possibly united with Louisiana. The border states, such as Tennessee and Virginia, will try to make it as independent nations for awhile, but will eventually re-unite with the US. In the end, I think you've got a hard-core southern republic made up of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and maybe North Carolina - and that's assuming that these states, with their black majorities, don't mutate into something else entirely. At most they'll end up as very minor players on the world stage, akin to Nicaragua or Haiti.

[NapoleonXIV]

[QUOTE=David S Poepoe]I think you better find out if Lincoln ever said that, since that certainly isn't anything the new Republican Party would endorse. /QUOTE]

Sorry, Winfield Scott, but he was high rank Union military.

[tom]

The "wayward sisters" quote was by, IIRC, Horace Greeley.

[Xen]

Perhaps to avoid a war the Constitution is clear on secession, to keep things and New England in the Union it could read something like "Any state wishing to end its union with the federal government may so choose to do so, except for at times of war, hence it will be treated as high treason against."

So with this clause, Kentucky and Missouri join the CSA and it departs on its merry way. As previously suggested, Texas and Louisiana will go their own ways. The border states like Missouri, Kentucky and Virginia will likely rejoin the Union.

The CSA becomes the Dixie Confederation made up of North and South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, Tennessee and Arkansas. After giving limited support to the Germany in World War I,the Confederacy is bankrupt, and lost territory to the US in Tennessee and North Carolina. The Dixie Civil War erupts in the 1920s between the Conservatives and Communists, the US supports the Conservatives, but the majority of the souths black population supports the Communists and overruns the Conservatives. The US is unwilling to have a Red Neighbor and invades, quickly crushing the Communists. Dixie is re-incorporated as US territories, South Carolina becomes the first Dixie state to rejoin the Union in 1931, Georgia follows in 1932, by 1940 all former Confederate States except Louisiana and Texas have rejoined the Union.

[Norman]

I think this is doable but would require an earlier secession, say between 1845 and 1854. I think that if, on the heels of a successful Mexican War, the issue of Secession had been discussed, it is possible that both sides would have peacefully separated.

[Grey Wolf]

I can't see why any state would WANT to seccede from the Confederacy, I mean what's the point ? If the CSA has a weak central government, then that is not something for the states to COMPLAIN about, its what they WANT in the first place. A weak central authority will allow the states to do what they want WITHIN the Confederacy - so why leave it ?

Grey Wolf

[Straha]

mmkayyy I've noticed alot of threads on the new forum involve the confederacy ;)

[LDoc]

What will probably happen is that the CSA will simply become a discussion group for the variouse states. Each state would be a country with little central government influnce. CSA would have little to no foriegn influnce with a terribly weak army and navy. I still see it as agarian based with slavery lasting until the revolts get to much and force an end to it even though it will continue in all but name. So in the end the CSA is a weak country with much internal strife (blacks V whites) maybe even same inter-state conflict about borders and runaway slaves.

[Xen]

I can't see why any state would WANT to seccede from the Confederacy, I mean what's the point ? If the CSA has a weak central government, then that is not something for the states to COMPLAIN about, its what they WANT in the first place. A weak central authority will allow the states to do what they want WITHIN the Confederacy - so why leave it ?

Grey Wolf

Simple

Money, money, money. MON-AY

There would be alot of rifts between states, especially if Texas left followed by Louisiana. States would be bidding against eachother over contracts which will lead to division and hurt feelings. Some states will insist they are being treated unfairly and always getting the short end of the stick. They may even try to become independent, but if that fails then what?

[Diamond]

:eek: I'm not trying to hijack your thread, Napoleon, but I didn't want to start a whole new one just to ask this question:

Is there a POD in 1844 or 1845 that allows for the peaceful separation of the Confederate states from the US? I'd like to have it before the Mexican-American War.

[robertp6165]

[QUOTE=David S Poepoe]I think you better find out if Lincoln ever said that, since that certainly isn't anything the new Republican Party would endorse. /QUOTE]

Sorry, Winfield Scott, but he was high rank Union military.

Actually, wrong again...it was Horace Greeley, in various editorials published in early 1861.

[robertp6165]

Simple

Money, money, money. MON-AY

There would be alot of rifts between states, especially if Texas left followed by Louisiana. States would be bidding against eachother over contracts which will lead to division and hurt feelings. Some states will insist they are being treated unfairly and always getting the short end of the stick. They may even try to become independent, but if that fails then what?

Well, I have to disagree with you. What contracts would they be bidding over? The Confederate Constitution forbade Congress from engaging in pork-barrel "internal improvement" spending. In general, the Confederate government simply would not be engaging in activities which would lead States to want to secede. The Confederate Constitution also was designed to allow conflicts between the States and the central government to be resolved without secession. So there just is not a real reason why this would take place. Texas might go because it was kind of an odd-ball in the Confederacy anyway, with a history as an independent nation. But other than the possibility of Texas, there is almost certainly going to be no secession from the Confederacy.