Franz Ferdinand isn't Shot in Sarajevo

[Faeelin]

What would the consequences be if Franz Ferdinand avoided being assassinated in August?

[Douglas]

What would the consequences be if Franz Ferdinand avoided being assassinated in August?

He would have lived. :p

[NomadicSky]

WWI is later and more bloody.

[Silverite]

The Togo dispute becomes the cause of WWI instead?

[Rockingham]

Federation of GA happens?

[Flocculencio]

This is an old one but I have to drop it in:

GLASGOW, SCOTLAND—Lead singer and guitarist for pop band Franz Ferdinand, Alexander Kapranos, is in critical condition today after being shot by a man identified as the bassist for rock group Gavrilo Princip. "We ask fans to cooperate with Interpol to find the assailant, and call upon British Sea Power, Snow Patrol, and The Postal Service for help," drummer Paul Thompson told music magazine NME Monday. "The suspect had links to The Decemberists and The Libertines, and we are following up on all leads." It is unclear whether the shooting was linked to The Polyphonic Spree's invasion of Belgium earlier this week.

[Max Sinister]

I think we had the same idea several times in the past.

[Faeelin]

I think we had the same idea several times in the past.

I think we've discussed several other things on the board several times in the past.

[joea64]

What would the consequences be if Franz Ferdinand avoided being assassinated in August?

June 28, 1914, actually. MrP is running with the idea in his "Pour le Coeur" (has that been updated recently?) In that scenario, Sophie gets killed. I'm most interested in a scenario where both survive, since the relationship between them pretty much defined FF's life, certainly his relations to the rest of the Austro-Hungarian nobility. One reason he and Wilhelm II became friends was that the Kaiser treated the Duchess of Hohenberg kindly. In fact, the reason Sophie was in Sarajevo on the 28th was because it was their 14th wedding anniversary and FF wanted her to get the proper state-visit treatment for once, since she could only receive equal honors with her husband as the wife of the Inspector-General of the armed forces (which capacity the Archduke was acting in during his sojourn in Bosnia). It'd be interesting to see how far FF could push his wife's status upward once he became Emperor without causing a blowup in the Hofburg.

-Joe-

[Superdude]

Maybe World War I just never happens. Have any of you ever read Norman Davies' Europe: A History? It presents a very good explanation for why events spun out of control like they did.

[joea64]

Maybe World War I just never happens. Have any of you ever read Norman Davies' Europe: A History? It presents a very good explanation for why events spun out of control like they did.

No, I think there's going to be a general European blowup sooner or later. Maybe later, if FF survives and the major powers manage to tamp down the crisis, but something else is going to snap somewhere else later on.

-Joe-

[David S Poepoe]

Federation of GA happens?

The state of Georgia is going to secede from the United States?

[HurganPL]

I think I saw a thread once where WW1 starts in 1916. The general idea was that Russia would defeat Germany.

[Darkling]

The danger of the Centrals starting a war begins to drop off after 1915, once FF becomes Emperor it becomes unlikely there will be a war (it was acknowledged he wasn't interested in war, although to be fair the hawks we also worried about kaiser Bill's lack of bottle costing them their war which they were able to circumvent just about), he will get busy rejigging his Empire.

The French and Russians were at a low ebb in 1914 but had programs which were just coming on line (the Russians would have increased heir army by more men than the German army contained by 1917), the British will start to put clear water between themselves and the Germans at sea, the Belgians were upgrading their defences, the Russians their rail net and economy etc.

It will soon become apparent to the central powers that a rapid victory can't be achieved which bodes ill for their ability to win especially given Britsih intervention.

By 1920 or so the central powers will most likely be very aware that they must avoid a war and Britain will most likely begin to detach itself fearing Russian expansion (particualrly if the Germans so any level of intelligence and seek to accommodate Britain on the naval question).

If we do get WW1 it would likely be in the mid to late 20s and feature Britain remaining neutral and quite possibly hostile to the Entente.

After several years of blood letting the great neutral voices of the Anglo-Saxons (Britain and the US) force an arbitrated settlement which leaves everybody except themselves unhappy.

[Bavarian Raven]

...but if ww1 starts in the 20s, germany might come out with the 1st tank which could make things interesting...:eek::D

[Susano]

No, I think there's going to be a general European blowup sooner or later. Maybe later, if FF survives and the major powers manage to tamp down the crisis, but something else is going to snap somewhere else later on.

-Joe-

Its a question of attitude, IMO. I mean, during that time most of Europe wa svery jingoistic, but its possible it grows out of that. Then you just have to avoid all wars during that time by luick, happenstance and coincidence. If you understand what I mean by that.

Of course, at least from the German side, given who would be the next Emperor after Idiot Willy, Im not too optimistic about that...

[Faeelin]

Its a question of attitude, IMO. I mean, during that time most of Europe wa svery jingoistic, but its possible it grows out of that. Then you just have to avoid all wars during that time by luick, happenstance and coincidence. If you understand what I mean by that.

Of course, at least from the German side, given who would be the next Emperor after Idiot Willy, Im not too optimistic about that...

My understanding is that the Germany army wanted a war, because if it was delayed it would become too dangerous for Germany as Russia developed.

Could the army be a force for peace?

[MarkA]

The danger of the Centrals starting a war begins to drop off after 1915, once FF becomes Emperor it becomes unlikely there will be a war (it was acknowledged he wasn't interested in war, although to be fair the hawks we also worried about kaiser Bill's lack of bottle costing them their war which they were able to circumvent just about), he will get busy rejigging his Empire.

The French and Russians were at a low ebb in 1914 but had programs which were just coming on line (the Russians would have increased heir army by more men than the German army contained by 1917), the British will start to put clear water between themselves and the Germans at sea, the Belgians were upgrading their defences, the Russians their rail net and economy etc.

It will soon become apparent to the central powers that a rapid victory can't be achieved which bodes ill for their ability to win especially given Britsih intervention.

By 1920 or so the central powers will most likely be very aware that they must avoid a war and Britain will most likely begin to detach itself fearing Russian expansion (particualrly if the Germans so any level of intelligence and seek to accommodate Britain on the naval question).

If we do get WW1 it would likely be in the mid to late 20s and feature Britain remaining neutral and quite possibly hostile to the Entente.

After several years of blood letting the great neutral voices of the Anglo-Saxons (Britain and the US) force an arbitrated settlement which leaves everybody except themselves unhappy.

I think you right to a point. If the UK remains neutral in any tension in 1920 France will not go to war with Germany. It is all well and good to believe the Russian steamroller will help keep Germany in line but if British help is not forthcoming France will not risk a war.

If France starts the conflict then the political situation will deteriote rapidly in Germany's favour. Britain will put enormous diplomatic pressure of France to desist and may even threaten to join in on Germany's side.