Future Civil Wars in the West

[basileus]

Tell what's the most likely scenario according to you.

[Straha]

the fundies in the midwest and south hold the power now so the resentment is building... the most likely option is a war of genocide against the fundies. The war will make Hitler,Stalin and Mao seem like choir boys. The way the boomer generation is trying to make everything childproof will cause things to explode when the millenials take power due to the millenials hearing about how good the boomers/gen X had in terms of entertainment and hedonism compared to them. Imagine the growing loss of religion and the rise of socialism in europe and compress that into a decade.

[Stalin]

the fundies in the midwest and south hold the power now so the resentment is building... the most likely option is a war of genocide against the fundies. The war will make Hitler,Stalin and Mao seem like choir boys. The way the boomer generation is trying to make everything childproof will cause things to explode when the millenials take power due to the millenials hearing about how good the boomers/gen X had in terms of entertainment and hedonism compared to them. Imagine the growing loss of religion and the rise of socialism in europe and compress that into a decade.

Straha, the likelihood of that is slim to none. What is a little resentment over the South and Midwest going to cause the North and everyone else to suddenly take up arms against one another? Please, it's not like we have any really strong issues to divide us, the majority of the public (especially the young) couldn't care less about who's running the country. Hell, most people don't even vote anymore. And Millenials hearing about how good the boomers/Xers had it when it comes to entertainment, sex, etc.? Ever hear of MTV, "Hooking-up" (Re: Casual Sex), etc.? Most people born 1981-1999 have seen and will see more violence, sex, and craziness in their lives than their parents. That they have more safety regulations is true, but the reality is these people aren't living more puritanical lives than their parents.

[Midgard]

Bump bumpity bump

[Ivan Druzhkov]

Bump bumpity bump
Look at Frosty go! Over those hills of snow!

Sorry.

[Tom Veil]

Eastern Europe. The real east, not the EU East -- Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Romania, Albania, Macedonia, Russia. One of them will collapse in the next 94 years. Probably several.

[Wendell]

Eastern Europe. The real east, not the EU East -- Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Romania, Albania, Macedonia, Russia. One of them will collapse in the next 94 years. Probably several.

I would concur. If we broaden our definition of "Eastern Europe" further, then a civil war could erupt in the Caucasus or Central Asia.

[TheMann]

Europe will probably break into wars again, because the EU is making nationalist sentiment that much more powerful.

The US I doubt, but its not impossible.

[Emperor Qianlong]

Well, the only place in Europe where war is really a likely possibility is - once again - on the Balkans. I know, it's already so balkanized there is little left to fight over, but I could see Albania trying to form a "Greater Albania" in some 20-30 years by trying to absorb western Macedonia and Kosovo... or, perhaps by planting unrest amongst the Albanians living there. It sounds like a bit far-fetched, yeah, but considering we had to deal with a "Greater Serbia" in the 1990s, it seems like a fair possibility...

Unrest due to right-wing activities in Central Europe is perhaps a possibility, but I doubt that it could ever evolve into the magnitude of a civil war. However, this remains to be seen.

Other than that, I could see unrests in any western European country due to the tensions with the muslim minorities living there. However, even if you assume worst-case, I doubt that these could evolve into a magnitude where you could speak of a civil war. More likely it'd stay with what we saw in the suburbs of Paris a while back...

[Count Dearborn]

The growing gulf between the Haves and the Have-nots will spiral into a second American Civil war, or an American version of the Terror.

[Filo]

May be northern European Country will try to dominate southern ones, less civil and economical developed(a cold civil war...but a civil war)

[Mike Stearns]

Straha, the likelihood of that is slim to none. What is a little resentment over the South and Midwest going to cause the North and everyone else to suddenly take up arms against one another? Please, it's not like we have any really strong issues to divide us, the majority of the public (especially the young) couldn't care less about who's running the country. Hell, most people don't even vote anymore. And Millenials hearing about how good the boomers/Xers had it when it comes to entertainment, sex, etc.? Ever hear of MTV, "Hooking-up" (Re: Casual Sex), etc.? Most people born 1981-1999 have seen and will see more violence, sex, and craziness in their lives than their parents. That they have more safety regulations is true, but the reality is these people aren't living more puritanical lives than their parents.

I agree. If a second Civil War was going to start in the United States, the most likely time for that would have been in the 1970s.

[xchen08]

The growing gulf between the Haves and the Have-nots will spiral into a second American Civil war, or an American version of the Terror.

If by havenots, you mean the underclass, then there is no chance. The black and hispanic underclass are grossly outnumbered and spread throughout the country, and the white poor generally do not side with them. The middle class is falling behind the wealthy, but not nearly to the extent of thinking about revolt. In any case, the middle and upper classes combined outnumber the lower classes, no chance of a Terror there.

[Max Sinister]

That's now, but in future, the relations could shift...

[Wendell]

That's now, but in future, the relations could shift...

Could and will are not the same thing.

[cow defender]

well i heard that in the fifties the avg ceo made about 10 times the normal wage while now its how much? the gap IS widening by a rather scary amount and the middle class IS dying and with voter apathy rising and rising... reminds me of an atwood book

[ninebucks]

In my future history timeline there is a European civil war (as in a civil war of a United Europe, not a civil war in any particular nation, or a war between European nations).

The war is fought between the European state, a pseudo-fascist, (kinda) Caucasian-supremacist conservative federation. My inclusion of conservative is not due to 'partisan hackery', but rather that a sincere desire to preserve the status quo is an important part of Europe's philosophy. The European electoral machine is geared almost entirely towards the middle-aged and elderly, it attempts to placate these groups by introducing discriminatory policies against young people and immigrants. The European Army is a towering juggernaut, funded by American corporations and omnipresent in all European nations.

And a rag-tag collection of rebels and revolutionaries, including communalist groups that separate themselves from mainstream society and live in communes that openly flout the law, especially laws about drug use, property and... most importantly, offer refuge to illegal immigrants and amasse arms. Although not all groups are militant, the European Army regards them all as such and routinely raids them.

However, as over the generations the base that Europe relies on begins to drop off, and the base that the Rebels rely on eventually increases. Not all young people join the communes, but those who do not are either traditionalists who seek to maintain Europe for their familes OR neo-fascists who despise the Rebels for their liberal pro-immigrant actions. The latter group makes up the majority of the army and eventually in the 2040s are little more than gangs in 21st Century armourment.

Europe throughout the conflict tried to maintain a moral high ground, arguing that it was protecting law-abiding citizens by disenfranchising communalists, but as the army becomes increasingly powerful Democratic Europe eventually falls to a military coup in 2045, beginning the Final War, a time of outright civil war between the European Junta and the Rebels, who are increasingly supported since the coup.

The war (which has directly cost over a million lives) is concluded in 2050 with the European Compromise, an agreement which gives nominal control of the continent to the Rebels, who form La Zono Anarhiste (or just Zono), while the remaining Europeanists are given the liberty to run their own affairs in special administrative zones (usually around the former national capital (except in cases where said capital has been devastated by war or national disaster like London, Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Athens or Stockholm).

[Strategos' Risk]

You forgot Canada.

[EvolvedSaurian]

You forgot Canada.

And Poland. (Couldn't resist :D)

Between the US or Canada, Canada is more likely to have a civil war. Have a succession of PMs who force through English-only policies, widespread discontent among the Quebecois...

In Europe, Albania is probably the only possible. The west is just too passe and they are keeping close watch on the former Yugoslavia. If Albania makes moves they will intervene, but perhaps some wouldn't...

[Doeth]

The EU fedralizes to a point that one country can't stand, then a nuch of people jump on the bandwagon....

[At-Bari]

Maybe Belgium in West Europe? Or will they get a peaceful divorce like the czech and the slovaks?

[Wendell]

Maybe Belgium in West Europe? Or will they get a peaceful divorce like the czech and the slovaks?

If Belgium breaks up, it won't be without violence. The situation in Belgium is just too complex.