Croesus
July 28th, 2007, 11:23 AM
Discussion thread
Il Duce said many things. Some he meant, others he did not. He liked to say one thing and then another; it confused issues and attracted attention. However there were things that he consistently said over the years that he consistently meant. One of those things, and certainly the most significant thing, was that he meant to make war. His sometime rival and sometime ally Adolf Hitler knew this; “So long as the Duce lives, one can rest assured that Italy will seize every opportunity to achieve its imperialistic aims”. Whatever the situation that confronted him, there was no doubt in Il Duce’s mind as to who was in charge; "You must all understand that I am not be contradicted because it only raises bouts in my mind and diverts me from what I know to be the right path, whereas my own animal instincts are always right".
Il Duce preferred a foreign policy of making a nuisance of himself by small-scale provocation in the hope that a situation might emerge that he could exploit. He saw war as a path to glory, as a means to an immortal end, as a right of passage that would transform Italy, and by extension himself, into something great and powerful. He would say that “… war alone could make a people truly noble…” that “"... [Italian] policy would continue to be based on a strong army and on the fact it was war and not peace that would bring the necessary change to Europe..."
He saw the challenge that faced Italy in very clear terms; “Italy… is bathed by a landlocked sea that communicates with the oceans through the Suez Canal, an artificial link easily blocked even by improvised methods, and through the straits of Gibraltar, dominated by the cannons of Great Britain. Italy therefore does not have free connection with the oceans. Italy is therefore in truth a prisoner of the Mediterranean, and the more populous and prosper Italy becomes, the more its imprisonment will gall. The bars of this prison are Corsica, Tunis, Malta, Cyprus. The sentinels of this prison are Gibraltar and Suez. Corsica is a pistol pointed at the heart of Italy; Tunisia at Sicily; while Malta and Cyprus constitute a threat to all our positions in the eastern and western Mediterranean. Greece, Turkey, Egypt have been ready to form a chain with Great Britain and to complete the politico-military encirclement of Italy. Greece, Turkey, Egypt must be considered virtual enemies of Italy and of its expansion”.
On May 22 1939 Italy and Germany joined in the ‘Pact of Steel’, a purely offensive alliance that was the culmination in an often stormy relationship that extended back to the Abyssinian crisis of 1935 and the mutual interests in the Spanish Civil War, not to mention the commonalities between Fascism and National Socialism, and the personal relationship between the two dictators. In August 1939 Il Duce was invited to get in step with the Fuhrer as he prepared for the invasion of Poland; in the event Il Duce balked because he knew that Italy could not make war as it’s army was at that time incapable.
This TL sets out to examine how a more capable Italian army might have developed and what it may have looked like; it looks at the impact such an army would have had in those dangerous years of 1939/40 as well as seeing how things might have resulted. It is not a 360-degree look at Fascist Italy and focuses primarily on the fundamental direction of Italian foreign policy, the nature and makeup of the army, and economic issues affecting the military’s ability to make war.
It is appropriate for a moment to pause and remember that Il Duce was removed from power in 1943 by his generals after only three years of general war before considering closely, what might have happened if there had been a Fitter Italian Military?
The First Half of the 1920’s
Italy asserted a right to special responsibility in the Balkans because she had a common frontier with the newly created state of Yugoslavia and had ambitions over Albania; control of Albania was seen as giving effective control of the Adriatic by virtue of holding both shores of the Strait of Otranto. Strategically and economically this area was full of promise to anyone who thought imperially and it was there that Il Duce first began to show his hand. He confessed that his long-term aim to win political primacy in the Balkans and called the Adriatic by rights Italian.
In keeping with this he first negotiates the transfer of the border port Fiume from Yugoslavia to Italy and then seeks to control the mouth of the Adriatic by annexing the strategically placed island of Corfu. Obliged to back down he would call his attack on Greece Italy’s most important action since 1860.
Another issue of importance for him was his frustration with the Italian reputation for a disinclination to fight and he became determined to change this, and make the Italians less nice, more hateful and more violent. He held that “only blood could turn the bloodstained wheels of history.” During his tenure as Prime Minister he told Italians to consider themselves in a permanent state of war and remarked that his first priority was to increase military readiness to the very maximum.
1925
Il Duce creates the post of Chief of General Staff in an effort to circumvent the position of the King as commander of the armed forces. IOTL Marshal Badoglio held this post. ITTL Badoglio is not summoned back from his posting-in-exile of Ambassador of Brazil and the position goes to his rival Marshal Cavallero.
A series of campaigns is launched to reduce the semi-independent north of Somalia. It will not be until 1927 until the region is brought into line.
1926
Albania is made into an Italian satellite. The geopolitical aims for this are to create a threat along the Yugoslav frontier; to counter French influence in the Balkans; and to extend Italian economic and political influence in the region before Germany was strong enough to compete.
The establishment of the Italian state hydrocarbons agency Azienda Generali Italiana Petroli (AGIP) challenges the market dominance of the large multinational oil companies (primarily SIAP, Standard Oil & Shell). While there are no large hydrocarbon reserves present, Italy was one of the first countries in the 1860's that established an industrial level search for oil. AGIP concentrated its efforts on acquiring its own oil supplies in other countries considered promising as sources of oil.
1927
In a speech Il Duce held that set himself ten years to militarise Italy so as to be able to force a war upon Europe and obtain for Italy what he called her due.
Il Duce separates the roles of Army and General Chief of Staff in an effort to curtail the power of the incumbent Marshal Cavallero, reducing him to the role of 'technical consultant to the head of government', with some role in war planning.
By this time the revision of the Treaty of Versailles had become the major theme of Italian foreign policy. Italy signs a treaty with Hungary and makes common ground as ‘unsatisfied powers’ with regard to the Versailles settlement and henceforth tends to take up position against Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, both of whom had gained from the settlement. It was considered that Italy could undermine both countries such that they would split and give way to Italian influence along and south of the Danube.
Italian diplomats began to keep in touch with separatist movements throughout all the Balkan states. Italy provided weapons for insurgent groups in Hungary and Austria, and sent arms to Greece. The Balkan policy was to encourage irredentist movements that might help to multiply tension.
With Yugoslavia the aim was either to replace France as patron, or that if exposed to sufficient pressure it might disintegrate, in which case Italy was ready with her claims on Croatia and the Dalmatian coast. Plans were formed for a possible invasion as a means of asserting Italy’s position as chief power in the Balkans and Danube basin, which Il Duce called Italy’s hinterland. Soon, Italian officers would begin training the Albanian army in expectation of a war with Yugoslavia.
AGIP enters the Rumanian oil market through a major share purchase of the national company Prahova. Some fields were discovered and by 1930 production had risen to 130,000 tons. The Rumanian government required refinement in Rumania, which cut out the margins AGIP sought for it's product and so the Rumanian oil could not satisfy the need of the Italian refineries for raw product. However important technical competencies were obtained as a result of exposure into the industry and these techniques were imported back into the Italian industry.
1928
The Italian Army Chief of Staff, Giuseppe Ferrari, confronts Il Duce with evidence of the parlous state of the Italian military. IOTL Il Duce would choose a tank by looking at a collection of drawings and, with a wave of his hand, say, "Build that one". ITTL, when Gen Ferrari outlined several options as to what was needed to modernise the armed forces, Il Duce waved his hand and commanded his Chief of General Staff to 'build that one'. General Ferrari did not leave the Palazzo Venezia with increased confidence in Il Duce but at least he left with a writ to begin some reforms.
The Ferrari Reforms imparted fresh energy into the Supreme Defence Commission (SDC) which had until now idled. The SDC over the next decade gradually manages to reduce, although not eliminate, the administrative confusion, jurisdictional conflict and dispersal of effort that so characterised Italian military procurement. Marshal Cavallero also heads the National Research Council and imparts some degree of military reality to the Council’s technical development work.
Italy signs a treaty of friendship with Abyssinia. Mussolini intends this as one stage towards establishing an economic protectorate over the country.
1929
Il Duce relinquishes personal and direct control of the three ministries of army, navy and air force and thereby permitting the ministries to greatly increase the quality of their work. Where before nothing could be done without his immediate presence, which was usually lacking given that he had seven ministerial responsibilities, now a professional momentum began to develop. IOTL Il Duce would reassume control in 1931: ITTL he does not. However he resists to the end the establishment of a genuine tri-service general staff; that would be going too far.
The Ferrari Reforms began with the artillery. New plans are made, dismissed, remade and approved; budgets were given, if grudgingly, and training commenced. When it was time to bring the 'necessary change to Europe', the Italian artillery would be more than capable of holding it's own. Over the next twelve years the Italian artillery regiments would gradually be able to field a useful range of light, medium and heavy pieces; of mortars, howitzers and guns; for mountains, desert and air defence. The Italian artillery liked to site and fight well forward, more so than any other power. It was aggressive, well controlled and willing to take casualties.
It was with a wry smile that Fate decreed the Ferrari would, in addition to being the fountainhead of Italian military reform, be an early proponent of mechanized warfare. While most certainly a general of the old school he recognised that something went wrong at the Isonzo in the Great War and that, if available, sufficiently evaluated alternatives may have resulted in more success. He saw what the tank did on the Western Front and wondered as to its application in Italian military doctrine. It was not for him to develop, but the Italian tank industry secured it's future with his impetus. Swept away were the multitude of designs submitted by rival designs and crafted on a haphazard and artisan basis: Italy would build three designs and they would be constructed along the lines of the Soviet model by semi-skilled labour according to the principles of mass production.
The reoccupation of Cyrenaica commences. To accelerate the process the governorships of Tripolitania and Cyrenaica are placed under the direct control of Marshal Cavallero.
AGIP enters into a consortium, the British Oil Development Company (BOD), in an effort to obtain leverage into Iraq and move into an area previously controlled by the Turkish Petroleum Company (TPC). Legal and negotiation problems ensued, lasting several years.
1930
From this point Mussolini’s speeches became less careful and more extravagant; “Words are beautiful things, but rifles, guns, ships, aeroplanes are still more beautiful. When tomorrow dawns the spectacle of our armed forces will reveal to the world the calm and war-like countenance of Fascist Italy.” and “The Italian people will eventually constitute a single human mass and, more than a mass, will become a shooting star that could be hurled against anyone, anywhere”.
AGIP introduces the rotary drilling process, permitting exploitation of the deep Po Valley reserves, as well as the large natural gas fields near Lodi
June. Marshal Cavallero and his henchman-in-chief General Graziani instigate the policy of forced resettlement of the population of Cyrenaica.
1931
Il Duce continues to rant on about war, as his army steadily grows, declaring "... war alone can carry to the maximum tension all human energies and imprint with the seal of nobility those people who have the courage to confront it: every other test is a mere substitute". He predicts that within ten years the whole of Europe would be fascist, and the Regio Esercito (RE) is instructed to be ready for a surprise attack on France or Yugoslavia.
The reforming of the Army benefits further by the Army Chief of Staff that succeeded Ferrari. General Baistrocchi was an organiser and administrator of considerable skill and manages to navigate Il Duce through the minefield of his own capriciousness, especially with regard to several important, and very short sighted, decisions Il Duce sought to take around the Abyssinian and Spanish conflicts. While he did eventually succeed in having himself dismissed with such an indelicacy, as "You, Duce, will lose the empire you have created" he was able to extend the hand of moderation into most areas of the Army. He even managed to establish a system of accelerated promotion on the basis of merit to supplement the traditional system of seniority: while heavily opposed at the time it did ensure that a few of the senior Italian officers in the coming war were only partially incompetent. He even established the open collar tunic into the army and gave his name to the new military jacket. Unfortunately following Baistrocchi there were no great reformers serving as Army Chief of Staff; Il Duce had had enough of their kind.
Under his counterpart General Valle the Regio Aeronautica (RA) finally commences it's reorganisation. Hitherto RA investment had largely been into matters of style over substance such as formation flying and propaganda flights. His is a slower reform than that of Baistrocchi, but at least it moves in the right direction. Primary reforms involve the rejection of trimotor airplanes (aside from the S.79 design which is developed as a land based torpedo bomber), biplanes, and air cooled engines. Much of the impetus to modernise is led by General Amadeo Mecozzi. Fighters become significantly better as the RA moves away from the Douhet doctrine, and both maritime reconnaissance craft and torpedo squadrons (using the excellent Fiume torpedo) are established.
In Cyrenaica General Graziani builds a four metre thick belt of wire between Bardia and Jarabub to prevent the resupply of the Senoussi from Egypt.
Mussolini begins financing and sending arms to various opposition groups in Spain.
1932
The official long arm of the RE, the Mannlicher-Carcano 1891 begins rechambering from the 6.5mm to a 7.35mm.
AGIP commences drilling operations in Iraq. IOTL when BOD found favourable conditions in the Mosul region AGIP could not meet it's share capital contributions and had to pull out: ITTL it could, and remained, adding an increase in oil supplies to further gains in technical and human competencies.
Pacification of Libya is now largely complete. Ardito Desio commences preliminary work in the Sirte basin and locates evidence of substantial oil deposits.
In a speech celebrating Fascism’s first decade Il Duce would say, “Today with a quiet conscience I tell you, this vast crowd, that the twentieth century will be the century of Fascism. It will the century of Italian power; it will be the century in which Italy will return for the third time to be the leader of human civilisation, for outside our faith there is no salvation either for individuals or for peoples”.
1933
The Italian fleet has now increased to 550,000 tons, and work commences on refitting two pre-Great War battleships, the Cavour and Cesare.
Italian supplies substantial quantities of arms to various, and often rival, Austrian separatists groups. Later in the year Il Duce sends an ultimatum to the Austrian Chancellor Dolfuss that further support from Italy would be conditional on Austria introducing a fascist regime on the Roman model and eliminating other parties, if necessary, by force.
Il Duce secretly appoints Marshal de Bono to command an Italian Expeditionary Force against Abyssinia.
1934
Il Duce declares that the year would mark a decisive step in the spread of fascism throughout the civilised world. Democracy and liberalism were no longer dying, but dead. So was any question of disarmament. Also declares that Italy's historical destiny now lies in Africa.
The measured moderation of Baistrocchi is in contrast with the enthusiastic extravagance of Marshal Balbo, and it is fair to say that Balbo's contribution was the more visible and immediate of the two great post-Ferrari reformers. Traditionally the RE had a mobilised complement of thirty divisions. Balbo recognised that the constraints of modern war were such that it would be extremely difficult to properly equip thirty modern divisions, and proposed halving that number. This of course did not go down well with many in the army and his plan was violently opposed by a group headed by General Pariani who declared that Italy needed more, not fewer, divisions and proposed to double the number.
Il Duce had little concept of industrial warfare and had a tendency to confuse quality with quantity... and somewhat unsurprisingly, he adored Pariani's plan. Given to such rhetoric as the eight million bayonets and the air force that would blot out the sun, he was most enthusiastic for an army of sixty divisions. Just where Pariani lost control of his run for influence is not certain, but the combined force of Balbo (who still carried considerable weight in the Party), Baistrocchi and the put-to-pasture Ferrari managed to convey to Il Duce the fundamentals of the matter. While still not convinced as to their arguments, which were largely economic and hence of only passing interest, he eventually acquiesced. Italy would enter a general war with a mobilised complement of 22 divisions.
It was possibly the second main contribution of Balbo that swayed Il Duce; he liked the panoply of office, the visibly compelling instruments of war, the new and fantastic. What can be more fantastic than grim parachutists falling from the heavens with their guns blazing; what can be more compelling than grizzled marines charging ashore and directly into the teeth of the enemy, carrying all before them? Both these regimental sized units were to be employed initially on that frustrating island, that brazen British port, Malta. When war came there would be fury falling from the sky and pouring from the sea. Il Duce liked that. There were of course substantial issues around coordination with the RA and Regia Marina (RM) that had to be overcome and to a significant degree this is why the airborne and amphibious forces were still working through their operational details when war began. Mistakes would be made, and needless ones at that, but it would still be Balbo's name that was remembered primarily when future discussions of the combined operations against Malta were made.
Since the early work undertaken by Ferrari, Il Duce had restricted himself to general bombast with regard to military matters, but he was only ever biding his time. In what was recognised at that time as his 'rearmament' speech, where he sought cast aside the shackles of the League of Nations and repudiated all the disarmament treaties he had so quickly signed, he began to fully develop his own unique oracular style and somehow, somewhere, the tone began to subtly change. His "war is to man what maternity is to women" speech charted the commencement of his descent of fantasy, where the liquidity of words finally overcame the solidity of substance, "It is the plough that traces the furrow, but it is the sword which defends it, and both plough and sword are made of tempered steel like the faith in our hearts". Il Duce was building up to something and that something was Abyssinia.
The Abyssinian War was not something that just happened. Since 1929 Italian troops had been bending the frontier to their will and establishing themselves in Abyssinian territory. Nor was this purely an enterprise by Il Duce: in fact he was initially suspicious and had to be sold on the idea, although admittedly the price of sale was not great. Abyssinia was seen by the armed forces as a proving ground, initially for the artillery and the new divisional structure, but later also for the new light tank, not to mention operational issues around poison gas and air-ground cooperation. Abyssinia was also an important step in the militarisation of Italian society and it was with invasion in mind that Il Duce enacted the law that stated that every Italian citizen was a soldier and should be educated militarily from the age of eight. While not specifically useful for the impending war, such a measure would capitalise handsomely on the glorious successes of his armies, helping overcome social resistance to war and associating the military with Italy, and victory.
The murder of Dolfuss catches Mussolini off guard and, unfortunately, he had to break the news to Dolfuss’ wife who was the guest of Il Duce at the time. Italy announces that four divisions (the Ravenna, Cosseria, Superga & Sforzesca) are poised to occupy the Austrian Tyrol. RE planning is adjusted to include operations against Germany.
Croat refugees, who had been living in Italy and whose arms and funds had been provided by the Italian government, murders King Alexander of Yugoslavia in Marseilles.
Mussolini signs agreement with two Spanish monarchist groups aimed at destabilising the Spanish government.
The RM laid down the battleships Littorio and Vittorio Veneto, together with an additional 17 submarines.
1935
The Minister for Exchange and Currency Guarnieri advises the SDC that Italy faces bankruptcy. Il Duce imposes import quotas to prevent an excessive drain on currency reserves, which also bites into rearmament. Although Il Duce remained an economic imbecile there builds a gradual groundswell within the military interests of the regime that seeks to ensure the RE’s funding. IOTL there was a 15% decline in funding for the army between the Abyssinian war and the eve of the World War: ITTL there was no such shortfall.
The SDC meets to discuss the progress of eight years of Italian military reform and rearmament. Following five days of sometimes absolutely frivolous discussion, such as choosing between cabbage or beans as the main basis for soldier’s rations, widespread approval is returned as to the nature of the artillery and infantry reforms, though with some substantial qualifications and caution over tank developments.
In May RM forward planning calls for the laying down of four new battleships, three aircraft carriers, four cruisers, twenty frigates, 12 corvettes and 54 submarines (for an additional 360,000 tons. Construction is envisaged as proceeding slowly in order to avoid international complications.
AGIP receives considerable political direction, greatly stretching it's resources that, but for the increasing revenues from the Mosul operations, would have proven too great to surmount. Increased geological and technical expertise is put to use developing the Po basin, exploitation of methane deposits as an alternative fuel source, and exploratory drilling operations in Eritrea, Abyssinia, Somalia and Libya. The creation of AGIP's scientific unit and government financing leads to increased levels of human competency and the importation or development of new exploratory techniques, of which the most notable is the technique of seismic reflection from the United States. A drilling operation is sent to Libya to follow up Desio's work and to apply the new technical developments to reach the deeper Libyan reserves.
February. Two divisions of regular infantry (the Pasubio and Piave) are despatched to Eritrea.
May. Two further divisions of regular infantry (the Bergamo and Sassari) and four ‘divisions’ of Blackshirts despatched to Eritrea.
September. The British Mediterranean Fleet despatched to the Eastern Mediterranean and reinforced by the Home Fleet. Britain is seen as being "fundamentally inclined to oppose" Italy's Mediterranean and African aspirations. One of the responses to this sabre rattling is the establishment of the General Commissariat for War Production, which builds upon much of the earlier work around war economics, and the overall efficiency of military production is maintained.
October. Following a lengthy build up Italy invades Abyssinia and the League of Nations imposed economic sanctions a few days later. The Abyssinian War is intended as being a prestige building effort for the regime. The Blackshirt led offensive under de Bono just runs out of steam; the army under Cavallero and Graziani finishes the conquest. This marks a subtle shift of the balance of power where the army demonstrates it's professional skill and indispensability.
December. Naval Chief of Staff Admiral Cavagnari proposes the immediate renovation of the old battleships Duilio and Doria, construction of two more Littorio class ships, one aircraft carrier and more submarines. Construction is delayed until the League of Nations sanctions lift.
1936
January. Il Duce informs Hitler that the Abyssinian sanctions had created a definite breach between Italy and France and hence, although he was not ready to permit Anschluss, he would recognise that Austria is a satellite of Germany and no longer of Italy.
May. The Abyssinian War is declared won, the ‘greatest colonial war known to history’ and that the population of Abyssinia had turned against their government and joyfully welcomed Italian rule.
July. Franco's rebellion catches Il Duce by surprise and against the advice of the RE Italy intervenes.
July 4. League of Nations sanctions on Italy lifted.
September. RA commences operations in Spain.
December. Abyssinia is declared completely pacified, although opposition was growing and had even spread to Eritrea. Italian rule progressively becomes harsher. The Italian Expeditionary Force arrives in Spain to conduct ground operations; gain it is seen as a Fascist war and largely untrained militias (together with substantial numbers of the unemployed from the south) are despatched, with a smaller regular army contingent of two divisions (the Cuneo and Livorno).
1937
Advance planning for an invasion of Egypt commences, aiming firstly at a seizure of the Mersa Matruh railhead and adjacent airfields and thence an advance to the Suez. Significant obstacles were encountered in liaison with the RM concerning just how the formidable forces of the Royal Navy were to be overcome.
March. Italy signs a treaty of friendship with Yugoslavia, temporarily ending Italy's long-standing support for Croatian separatism.
March. The Battle of Guadalajara results in an embarrassing Italian defeat. Crucially for the upcoming war, European military experts associate the Italian army with the Blackshirt rabbles in Abyssinia and Spain.
August. Italian submarines begin campaign against Soviet resupply shipping, leading to confrontation with Britain.
November. Italy withdraws from the League of Nations and the takes part in the establishment of the Axis; Il Duce boasts that "Italy is at the end of the most formidable politico-military combination that has ever existed’
December. The hardline policies of Graziani in Abyssinia are finally recognised as having failed and he was brought home, being replaced by the more moderate Duke of Aosta. The damage had however been done and the new viceroy can do little better.
Encouraging developments lead AGIP to consider natural gas as a substitute not for gasoline but for the imported coal fed industries of northern Italy. A positive result from the Sirte fields in Libya leads to an increase in operations and work begins to determine how best to develop and exploit the wider reserves. Investment in plant and construction of facilities begins apace but large-scale exploitation is not achieved before the commencement of general hostilities in 1939.
1938
From the Abyssinian War onwards Il Duce had increasingly taken on the role of Supreme Commander: in a March speech he publicly claimed the role. Naval planning for a North African conflict confirmed as operations to support the landward drive, the reduction of Malta and operations around Suez. Il Duce says that war with Britain is inevitable. Economically things are still tight. The costs of the Abyssinian war, the Spanish campaign, the costs associated with the colonies and military rearmament is draining the budget. Leading up to war there are still issues around senior and junior leadership, and supply... but the military is undoubtedly more proficient.
As a compensation for letting Hitler into Austria, Italy decides to invade Albania and finally extend full control over the Adriatic.
February. RA bombs Barcelona against wishes of Franco.
June. RE instructed to prepare invasion plans for Albania.
November 5. Italian foreign policy sets out to create 'an insurmountable abyss between Italy and France'
1939
Il Duce informs the Grand Council of Fascism that war with France is unavoidable. The RE for the moment puts aside the Suez plan and begins to focus on French contingencies.
Rumania seeks Italian protection against the Soviets, Germans and Hungarians.
Jan. With general war seemingly inevitable Mussolini decides to establish a formal military alliance with Germany. In the belief that the Anglo-French alliance holds no threat, the RE is told to exclude Britain from their war hypotheses, while the public was simultaneously told that war against France was inevitable and victory certain.
March 21. Il Duce explains to the Grand Council of Fascists of the need to adopt a policy of uncompromising loyalty to the Axis.
29/30 March. Madrid & Valencia falls, ending Italian involvement in Spain. Large amounts of equipment are left behind, much of which is secretly sold by Spain to Yugoslavia.
April. Advance talks for joint German/Italian operations commence. German planning for the invasion of Poland also commences.
April 7. Italian forces land at Durazzo and Valona in Albania.
May 22. Following the signing of the Pact of Steel, Il Duce begins to take renewed interest in Yugoslavia and Greece. Yugoslavia is seen as the primary conquest, with Greece a secondary one, or even client state. Mussolini has in place invasion plans for Greece and destabilisation plans for Yugoslavia. He feels it important to be ready to assert Italian claims to predominance in the Danube/Balkans while Germany was preoccupied with Poland.
May 30. The 'Cavallero Memorandum' is despatched to Berlin explaining that Mussolini recognises that war is inevitable and that in the first moment of hostility the Italian aim is to seize the Balkans as far as the Danube and to put Greece, Rumania and Turkey hors de combat.
May 31. Il Duce informs Ciano that he has no intention to ease relations with France.
June. Ciano signs an agreement with the Croat leader Vladko Macek that provides for a rising against Belgrade in 4-5 months, Italian military intervention and a Croat puppet state. Italy had now ‘acquired new continental objectives of a European territorial value’.
June 22. Orders for invasion of Poland signed and concealed mobilisation commences.
July. The British plan in the event of Italy joining Germany in a war is for the RN to sweep the Eastern Mediterranean of Italian submarines, attack Libyan bases, and launch carrier strikes on Taranto. The French are to bombard the Italian coast from Palermo to Genoa while also invading Libya from Tunisia. However the French war party cannot overcome the Italophiles within cabinet, nor the French army's desire to reduce risk in light of German military might.
July. Mussolini assures Hitler that should he decide to fight, then Italy would be behind him 100% and mobilise at a moments notice.
August 11/12. In Salzburg Hitler (which TTL Mussolini attends) refuses to reconsider the planned Polish invasion that Italy has by now caught wind of and urges Italy to take the opportunity and attack Yugoslavia. IOTL Il Duce pulled back because the RE was not ready - not so ITTL. Hitler explains that the best thing for the Axis would be to liquidate the neutral states of Europe one after the other; just as Austria, Czechoslovakia and Albania had already been invaded; each partner should cover the other in turn as they took their pick. Yugoslavia is mentioned in this context.
August 15. Il Duce meets with Marshal Cavallero and says war is imminent. He proposes a landing in Croatia and Salonika. While Cavallero pointed out the vulnerability of Libya, Il Duce held that gains from Yugoslavia and Greece would more than compensate for the loss of Libya.
August 25. IOTL Il Duce orders a mobilisation decree to be prepared: ITTL it is a full mobilisation order
September 1. Germany attacks Poland
Croesus
Il Duce said many things. Some he meant, others he did not. He liked to say one thing and then another; it confused issues and attracted attention. However there were things that he consistently said over the years that he consistently meant. One of those things, and certainly the most significant thing, was that he meant to make war. His sometime rival and sometime ally Adolf Hitler knew this; “So long as the Duce lives, one can rest assured that Italy will seize every opportunity to achieve its imperialistic aims”. Whatever the situation that confronted him, there was no doubt in Il Duce’s mind as to who was in charge; "You must all understand that I am not be contradicted because it only raises bouts in my mind and diverts me from what I know to be the right path, whereas my own animal instincts are always right".
Il Duce preferred a foreign policy of making a nuisance of himself by small-scale provocation in the hope that a situation might emerge that he could exploit. He saw war as a path to glory, as a means to an immortal end, as a right of passage that would transform Italy, and by extension himself, into something great and powerful. He would say that “… war alone could make a people truly noble…” that “"... [Italian] policy would continue to be based on a strong army and on the fact it was war and not peace that would bring the necessary change to Europe..."
He saw the challenge that faced Italy in very clear terms; “Italy… is bathed by a landlocked sea that communicates with the oceans through the Suez Canal, an artificial link easily blocked even by improvised methods, and through the straits of Gibraltar, dominated by the cannons of Great Britain. Italy therefore does not have free connection with the oceans. Italy is therefore in truth a prisoner of the Mediterranean, and the more populous and prosper Italy becomes, the more its imprisonment will gall. The bars of this prison are Corsica, Tunis, Malta, Cyprus. The sentinels of this prison are Gibraltar and Suez. Corsica is a pistol pointed at the heart of Italy; Tunisia at Sicily; while Malta and Cyprus constitute a threat to all our positions in the eastern and western Mediterranean. Greece, Turkey, Egypt have been ready to form a chain with Great Britain and to complete the politico-military encirclement of Italy. Greece, Turkey, Egypt must be considered virtual enemies of Italy and of its expansion”.
On May 22 1939 Italy and Germany joined in the ‘Pact of Steel’, a purely offensive alliance that was the culmination in an often stormy relationship that extended back to the Abyssinian crisis of 1935 and the mutual interests in the Spanish Civil War, not to mention the commonalities between Fascism and National Socialism, and the personal relationship between the two dictators. In August 1939 Il Duce was invited to get in step with the Fuhrer as he prepared for the invasion of Poland; in the event Il Duce balked because he knew that Italy could not make war as it’s army was at that time incapable.
This TL sets out to examine how a more capable Italian army might have developed and what it may have looked like; it looks at the impact such an army would have had in those dangerous years of 1939/40 as well as seeing how things might have resulted. It is not a 360-degree look at Fascist Italy and focuses primarily on the fundamental direction of Italian foreign policy, the nature and makeup of the army, and economic issues affecting the military’s ability to make war.
It is appropriate for a moment to pause and remember that Il Duce was removed from power in 1943 by his generals after only three years of general war before considering closely, what might have happened if there had been a Fitter Italian Military?
The First Half of the 1920’s
Italy asserted a right to special responsibility in the Balkans because she had a common frontier with the newly created state of Yugoslavia and had ambitions over Albania; control of Albania was seen as giving effective control of the Adriatic by virtue of holding both shores of the Strait of Otranto. Strategically and economically this area was full of promise to anyone who thought imperially and it was there that Il Duce first began to show his hand. He confessed that his long-term aim to win political primacy in the Balkans and called the Adriatic by rights Italian.
In keeping with this he first negotiates the transfer of the border port Fiume from Yugoslavia to Italy and then seeks to control the mouth of the Adriatic by annexing the strategically placed island of Corfu. Obliged to back down he would call his attack on Greece Italy’s most important action since 1860.
Another issue of importance for him was his frustration with the Italian reputation for a disinclination to fight and he became determined to change this, and make the Italians less nice, more hateful and more violent. He held that “only blood could turn the bloodstained wheels of history.” During his tenure as Prime Minister he told Italians to consider themselves in a permanent state of war and remarked that his first priority was to increase military readiness to the very maximum.
1925
Il Duce creates the post of Chief of General Staff in an effort to circumvent the position of the King as commander of the armed forces. IOTL Marshal Badoglio held this post. ITTL Badoglio is not summoned back from his posting-in-exile of Ambassador of Brazil and the position goes to his rival Marshal Cavallero.
A series of campaigns is launched to reduce the semi-independent north of Somalia. It will not be until 1927 until the region is brought into line.
1926
Albania is made into an Italian satellite. The geopolitical aims for this are to create a threat along the Yugoslav frontier; to counter French influence in the Balkans; and to extend Italian economic and political influence in the region before Germany was strong enough to compete.
The establishment of the Italian state hydrocarbons agency Azienda Generali Italiana Petroli (AGIP) challenges the market dominance of the large multinational oil companies (primarily SIAP, Standard Oil & Shell). While there are no large hydrocarbon reserves present, Italy was one of the first countries in the 1860's that established an industrial level search for oil. AGIP concentrated its efforts on acquiring its own oil supplies in other countries considered promising as sources of oil.
1927
In a speech Il Duce held that set himself ten years to militarise Italy so as to be able to force a war upon Europe and obtain for Italy what he called her due.
Il Duce separates the roles of Army and General Chief of Staff in an effort to curtail the power of the incumbent Marshal Cavallero, reducing him to the role of 'technical consultant to the head of government', with some role in war planning.
By this time the revision of the Treaty of Versailles had become the major theme of Italian foreign policy. Italy signs a treaty with Hungary and makes common ground as ‘unsatisfied powers’ with regard to the Versailles settlement and henceforth tends to take up position against Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, both of whom had gained from the settlement. It was considered that Italy could undermine both countries such that they would split and give way to Italian influence along and south of the Danube.
Italian diplomats began to keep in touch with separatist movements throughout all the Balkan states. Italy provided weapons for insurgent groups in Hungary and Austria, and sent arms to Greece. The Balkan policy was to encourage irredentist movements that might help to multiply tension.
With Yugoslavia the aim was either to replace France as patron, or that if exposed to sufficient pressure it might disintegrate, in which case Italy was ready with her claims on Croatia and the Dalmatian coast. Plans were formed for a possible invasion as a means of asserting Italy’s position as chief power in the Balkans and Danube basin, which Il Duce called Italy’s hinterland. Soon, Italian officers would begin training the Albanian army in expectation of a war with Yugoslavia.
AGIP enters the Rumanian oil market through a major share purchase of the national company Prahova. Some fields were discovered and by 1930 production had risen to 130,000 tons. The Rumanian government required refinement in Rumania, which cut out the margins AGIP sought for it's product and so the Rumanian oil could not satisfy the need of the Italian refineries for raw product. However important technical competencies were obtained as a result of exposure into the industry and these techniques were imported back into the Italian industry.
1928
The Italian Army Chief of Staff, Giuseppe Ferrari, confronts Il Duce with evidence of the parlous state of the Italian military. IOTL Il Duce would choose a tank by looking at a collection of drawings and, with a wave of his hand, say, "Build that one". ITTL, when Gen Ferrari outlined several options as to what was needed to modernise the armed forces, Il Duce waved his hand and commanded his Chief of General Staff to 'build that one'. General Ferrari did not leave the Palazzo Venezia with increased confidence in Il Duce but at least he left with a writ to begin some reforms.
The Ferrari Reforms imparted fresh energy into the Supreme Defence Commission (SDC) which had until now idled. The SDC over the next decade gradually manages to reduce, although not eliminate, the administrative confusion, jurisdictional conflict and dispersal of effort that so characterised Italian military procurement. Marshal Cavallero also heads the National Research Council and imparts some degree of military reality to the Council’s technical development work.
Italy signs a treaty of friendship with Abyssinia. Mussolini intends this as one stage towards establishing an economic protectorate over the country.
1929
Il Duce relinquishes personal and direct control of the three ministries of army, navy and air force and thereby permitting the ministries to greatly increase the quality of their work. Where before nothing could be done without his immediate presence, which was usually lacking given that he had seven ministerial responsibilities, now a professional momentum began to develop. IOTL Il Duce would reassume control in 1931: ITTL he does not. However he resists to the end the establishment of a genuine tri-service general staff; that would be going too far.
The Ferrari Reforms began with the artillery. New plans are made, dismissed, remade and approved; budgets were given, if grudgingly, and training commenced. When it was time to bring the 'necessary change to Europe', the Italian artillery would be more than capable of holding it's own. Over the next twelve years the Italian artillery regiments would gradually be able to field a useful range of light, medium and heavy pieces; of mortars, howitzers and guns; for mountains, desert and air defence. The Italian artillery liked to site and fight well forward, more so than any other power. It was aggressive, well controlled and willing to take casualties.
It was with a wry smile that Fate decreed the Ferrari would, in addition to being the fountainhead of Italian military reform, be an early proponent of mechanized warfare. While most certainly a general of the old school he recognised that something went wrong at the Isonzo in the Great War and that, if available, sufficiently evaluated alternatives may have resulted in more success. He saw what the tank did on the Western Front and wondered as to its application in Italian military doctrine. It was not for him to develop, but the Italian tank industry secured it's future with his impetus. Swept away were the multitude of designs submitted by rival designs and crafted on a haphazard and artisan basis: Italy would build three designs and they would be constructed along the lines of the Soviet model by semi-skilled labour according to the principles of mass production.
The reoccupation of Cyrenaica commences. To accelerate the process the governorships of Tripolitania and Cyrenaica are placed under the direct control of Marshal Cavallero.
AGIP enters into a consortium, the British Oil Development Company (BOD), in an effort to obtain leverage into Iraq and move into an area previously controlled by the Turkish Petroleum Company (TPC). Legal and negotiation problems ensued, lasting several years.
1930
From this point Mussolini’s speeches became less careful and more extravagant; “Words are beautiful things, but rifles, guns, ships, aeroplanes are still more beautiful. When tomorrow dawns the spectacle of our armed forces will reveal to the world the calm and war-like countenance of Fascist Italy.” and “The Italian people will eventually constitute a single human mass and, more than a mass, will become a shooting star that could be hurled against anyone, anywhere”.
AGIP introduces the rotary drilling process, permitting exploitation of the deep Po Valley reserves, as well as the large natural gas fields near Lodi
June. Marshal Cavallero and his henchman-in-chief General Graziani instigate the policy of forced resettlement of the population of Cyrenaica.
1931
Il Duce continues to rant on about war, as his army steadily grows, declaring "... war alone can carry to the maximum tension all human energies and imprint with the seal of nobility those people who have the courage to confront it: every other test is a mere substitute". He predicts that within ten years the whole of Europe would be fascist, and the Regio Esercito (RE) is instructed to be ready for a surprise attack on France or Yugoslavia.
The reforming of the Army benefits further by the Army Chief of Staff that succeeded Ferrari. General Baistrocchi was an organiser and administrator of considerable skill and manages to navigate Il Duce through the minefield of his own capriciousness, especially with regard to several important, and very short sighted, decisions Il Duce sought to take around the Abyssinian and Spanish conflicts. While he did eventually succeed in having himself dismissed with such an indelicacy, as "You, Duce, will lose the empire you have created" he was able to extend the hand of moderation into most areas of the Army. He even managed to establish a system of accelerated promotion on the basis of merit to supplement the traditional system of seniority: while heavily opposed at the time it did ensure that a few of the senior Italian officers in the coming war were only partially incompetent. He even established the open collar tunic into the army and gave his name to the new military jacket. Unfortunately following Baistrocchi there were no great reformers serving as Army Chief of Staff; Il Duce had had enough of their kind.
Under his counterpart General Valle the Regio Aeronautica (RA) finally commences it's reorganisation. Hitherto RA investment had largely been into matters of style over substance such as formation flying and propaganda flights. His is a slower reform than that of Baistrocchi, but at least it moves in the right direction. Primary reforms involve the rejection of trimotor airplanes (aside from the S.79 design which is developed as a land based torpedo bomber), biplanes, and air cooled engines. Much of the impetus to modernise is led by General Amadeo Mecozzi. Fighters become significantly better as the RA moves away from the Douhet doctrine, and both maritime reconnaissance craft and torpedo squadrons (using the excellent Fiume torpedo) are established.
In Cyrenaica General Graziani builds a four metre thick belt of wire between Bardia and Jarabub to prevent the resupply of the Senoussi from Egypt.
Mussolini begins financing and sending arms to various opposition groups in Spain.
1932
The official long arm of the RE, the Mannlicher-Carcano 1891 begins rechambering from the 6.5mm to a 7.35mm.
AGIP commences drilling operations in Iraq. IOTL when BOD found favourable conditions in the Mosul region AGIP could not meet it's share capital contributions and had to pull out: ITTL it could, and remained, adding an increase in oil supplies to further gains in technical and human competencies.
Pacification of Libya is now largely complete. Ardito Desio commences preliminary work in the Sirte basin and locates evidence of substantial oil deposits.
In a speech celebrating Fascism’s first decade Il Duce would say, “Today with a quiet conscience I tell you, this vast crowd, that the twentieth century will be the century of Fascism. It will the century of Italian power; it will be the century in which Italy will return for the third time to be the leader of human civilisation, for outside our faith there is no salvation either for individuals or for peoples”.
1933
The Italian fleet has now increased to 550,000 tons, and work commences on refitting two pre-Great War battleships, the Cavour and Cesare.
Italian supplies substantial quantities of arms to various, and often rival, Austrian separatists groups. Later in the year Il Duce sends an ultimatum to the Austrian Chancellor Dolfuss that further support from Italy would be conditional on Austria introducing a fascist regime on the Roman model and eliminating other parties, if necessary, by force.
Il Duce secretly appoints Marshal de Bono to command an Italian Expeditionary Force against Abyssinia.
1934
Il Duce declares that the year would mark a decisive step in the spread of fascism throughout the civilised world. Democracy and liberalism were no longer dying, but dead. So was any question of disarmament. Also declares that Italy's historical destiny now lies in Africa.
The measured moderation of Baistrocchi is in contrast with the enthusiastic extravagance of Marshal Balbo, and it is fair to say that Balbo's contribution was the more visible and immediate of the two great post-Ferrari reformers. Traditionally the RE had a mobilised complement of thirty divisions. Balbo recognised that the constraints of modern war were such that it would be extremely difficult to properly equip thirty modern divisions, and proposed halving that number. This of course did not go down well with many in the army and his plan was violently opposed by a group headed by General Pariani who declared that Italy needed more, not fewer, divisions and proposed to double the number.
Il Duce had little concept of industrial warfare and had a tendency to confuse quality with quantity... and somewhat unsurprisingly, he adored Pariani's plan. Given to such rhetoric as the eight million bayonets and the air force that would blot out the sun, he was most enthusiastic for an army of sixty divisions. Just where Pariani lost control of his run for influence is not certain, but the combined force of Balbo (who still carried considerable weight in the Party), Baistrocchi and the put-to-pasture Ferrari managed to convey to Il Duce the fundamentals of the matter. While still not convinced as to their arguments, which were largely economic and hence of only passing interest, he eventually acquiesced. Italy would enter a general war with a mobilised complement of 22 divisions.
It was possibly the second main contribution of Balbo that swayed Il Duce; he liked the panoply of office, the visibly compelling instruments of war, the new and fantastic. What can be more fantastic than grim parachutists falling from the heavens with their guns blazing; what can be more compelling than grizzled marines charging ashore and directly into the teeth of the enemy, carrying all before them? Both these regimental sized units were to be employed initially on that frustrating island, that brazen British port, Malta. When war came there would be fury falling from the sky and pouring from the sea. Il Duce liked that. There were of course substantial issues around coordination with the RA and Regia Marina (RM) that had to be overcome and to a significant degree this is why the airborne and amphibious forces were still working through their operational details when war began. Mistakes would be made, and needless ones at that, but it would still be Balbo's name that was remembered primarily when future discussions of the combined operations against Malta were made.
Since the early work undertaken by Ferrari, Il Duce had restricted himself to general bombast with regard to military matters, but he was only ever biding his time. In what was recognised at that time as his 'rearmament' speech, where he sought cast aside the shackles of the League of Nations and repudiated all the disarmament treaties he had so quickly signed, he began to fully develop his own unique oracular style and somehow, somewhere, the tone began to subtly change. His "war is to man what maternity is to women" speech charted the commencement of his descent of fantasy, where the liquidity of words finally overcame the solidity of substance, "It is the plough that traces the furrow, but it is the sword which defends it, and both plough and sword are made of tempered steel like the faith in our hearts". Il Duce was building up to something and that something was Abyssinia.
The Abyssinian War was not something that just happened. Since 1929 Italian troops had been bending the frontier to their will and establishing themselves in Abyssinian territory. Nor was this purely an enterprise by Il Duce: in fact he was initially suspicious and had to be sold on the idea, although admittedly the price of sale was not great. Abyssinia was seen by the armed forces as a proving ground, initially for the artillery and the new divisional structure, but later also for the new light tank, not to mention operational issues around poison gas and air-ground cooperation. Abyssinia was also an important step in the militarisation of Italian society and it was with invasion in mind that Il Duce enacted the law that stated that every Italian citizen was a soldier and should be educated militarily from the age of eight. While not specifically useful for the impending war, such a measure would capitalise handsomely on the glorious successes of his armies, helping overcome social resistance to war and associating the military with Italy, and victory.
The murder of Dolfuss catches Mussolini off guard and, unfortunately, he had to break the news to Dolfuss’ wife who was the guest of Il Duce at the time. Italy announces that four divisions (the Ravenna, Cosseria, Superga & Sforzesca) are poised to occupy the Austrian Tyrol. RE planning is adjusted to include operations against Germany.
Croat refugees, who had been living in Italy and whose arms and funds had been provided by the Italian government, murders King Alexander of Yugoslavia in Marseilles.
Mussolini signs agreement with two Spanish monarchist groups aimed at destabilising the Spanish government.
The RM laid down the battleships Littorio and Vittorio Veneto, together with an additional 17 submarines.
1935
The Minister for Exchange and Currency Guarnieri advises the SDC that Italy faces bankruptcy. Il Duce imposes import quotas to prevent an excessive drain on currency reserves, which also bites into rearmament. Although Il Duce remained an economic imbecile there builds a gradual groundswell within the military interests of the regime that seeks to ensure the RE’s funding. IOTL there was a 15% decline in funding for the army between the Abyssinian war and the eve of the World War: ITTL there was no such shortfall.
The SDC meets to discuss the progress of eight years of Italian military reform and rearmament. Following five days of sometimes absolutely frivolous discussion, such as choosing between cabbage or beans as the main basis for soldier’s rations, widespread approval is returned as to the nature of the artillery and infantry reforms, though with some substantial qualifications and caution over tank developments.
In May RM forward planning calls for the laying down of four new battleships, three aircraft carriers, four cruisers, twenty frigates, 12 corvettes and 54 submarines (for an additional 360,000 tons. Construction is envisaged as proceeding slowly in order to avoid international complications.
AGIP receives considerable political direction, greatly stretching it's resources that, but for the increasing revenues from the Mosul operations, would have proven too great to surmount. Increased geological and technical expertise is put to use developing the Po basin, exploitation of methane deposits as an alternative fuel source, and exploratory drilling operations in Eritrea, Abyssinia, Somalia and Libya. The creation of AGIP's scientific unit and government financing leads to increased levels of human competency and the importation or development of new exploratory techniques, of which the most notable is the technique of seismic reflection from the United States. A drilling operation is sent to Libya to follow up Desio's work and to apply the new technical developments to reach the deeper Libyan reserves.
February. Two divisions of regular infantry (the Pasubio and Piave) are despatched to Eritrea.
May. Two further divisions of regular infantry (the Bergamo and Sassari) and four ‘divisions’ of Blackshirts despatched to Eritrea.
September. The British Mediterranean Fleet despatched to the Eastern Mediterranean and reinforced by the Home Fleet. Britain is seen as being "fundamentally inclined to oppose" Italy's Mediterranean and African aspirations. One of the responses to this sabre rattling is the establishment of the General Commissariat for War Production, which builds upon much of the earlier work around war economics, and the overall efficiency of military production is maintained.
October. Following a lengthy build up Italy invades Abyssinia and the League of Nations imposed economic sanctions a few days later. The Abyssinian War is intended as being a prestige building effort for the regime. The Blackshirt led offensive under de Bono just runs out of steam; the army under Cavallero and Graziani finishes the conquest. This marks a subtle shift of the balance of power where the army demonstrates it's professional skill and indispensability.
December. Naval Chief of Staff Admiral Cavagnari proposes the immediate renovation of the old battleships Duilio and Doria, construction of two more Littorio class ships, one aircraft carrier and more submarines. Construction is delayed until the League of Nations sanctions lift.
1936
January. Il Duce informs Hitler that the Abyssinian sanctions had created a definite breach between Italy and France and hence, although he was not ready to permit Anschluss, he would recognise that Austria is a satellite of Germany and no longer of Italy.
May. The Abyssinian War is declared won, the ‘greatest colonial war known to history’ and that the population of Abyssinia had turned against their government and joyfully welcomed Italian rule.
July. Franco's rebellion catches Il Duce by surprise and against the advice of the RE Italy intervenes.
July 4. League of Nations sanctions on Italy lifted.
September. RA commences operations in Spain.
December. Abyssinia is declared completely pacified, although opposition was growing and had even spread to Eritrea. Italian rule progressively becomes harsher. The Italian Expeditionary Force arrives in Spain to conduct ground operations; gain it is seen as a Fascist war and largely untrained militias (together with substantial numbers of the unemployed from the south) are despatched, with a smaller regular army contingent of two divisions (the Cuneo and Livorno).
1937
Advance planning for an invasion of Egypt commences, aiming firstly at a seizure of the Mersa Matruh railhead and adjacent airfields and thence an advance to the Suez. Significant obstacles were encountered in liaison with the RM concerning just how the formidable forces of the Royal Navy were to be overcome.
March. Italy signs a treaty of friendship with Yugoslavia, temporarily ending Italy's long-standing support for Croatian separatism.
March. The Battle of Guadalajara results in an embarrassing Italian defeat. Crucially for the upcoming war, European military experts associate the Italian army with the Blackshirt rabbles in Abyssinia and Spain.
August. Italian submarines begin campaign against Soviet resupply shipping, leading to confrontation with Britain.
November. Italy withdraws from the League of Nations and the takes part in the establishment of the Axis; Il Duce boasts that "Italy is at the end of the most formidable politico-military combination that has ever existed’
December. The hardline policies of Graziani in Abyssinia are finally recognised as having failed and he was brought home, being replaced by the more moderate Duke of Aosta. The damage had however been done and the new viceroy can do little better.
Encouraging developments lead AGIP to consider natural gas as a substitute not for gasoline but for the imported coal fed industries of northern Italy. A positive result from the Sirte fields in Libya leads to an increase in operations and work begins to determine how best to develop and exploit the wider reserves. Investment in plant and construction of facilities begins apace but large-scale exploitation is not achieved before the commencement of general hostilities in 1939.
1938
From the Abyssinian War onwards Il Duce had increasingly taken on the role of Supreme Commander: in a March speech he publicly claimed the role. Naval planning for a North African conflict confirmed as operations to support the landward drive, the reduction of Malta and operations around Suez. Il Duce says that war with Britain is inevitable. Economically things are still tight. The costs of the Abyssinian war, the Spanish campaign, the costs associated with the colonies and military rearmament is draining the budget. Leading up to war there are still issues around senior and junior leadership, and supply... but the military is undoubtedly more proficient.
As a compensation for letting Hitler into Austria, Italy decides to invade Albania and finally extend full control over the Adriatic.
February. RA bombs Barcelona against wishes of Franco.
June. RE instructed to prepare invasion plans for Albania.
November 5. Italian foreign policy sets out to create 'an insurmountable abyss between Italy and France'
1939
Il Duce informs the Grand Council of Fascism that war with France is unavoidable. The RE for the moment puts aside the Suez plan and begins to focus on French contingencies.
Rumania seeks Italian protection against the Soviets, Germans and Hungarians.
Jan. With general war seemingly inevitable Mussolini decides to establish a formal military alliance with Germany. In the belief that the Anglo-French alliance holds no threat, the RE is told to exclude Britain from their war hypotheses, while the public was simultaneously told that war against France was inevitable and victory certain.
March 21. Il Duce explains to the Grand Council of Fascists of the need to adopt a policy of uncompromising loyalty to the Axis.
29/30 March. Madrid & Valencia falls, ending Italian involvement in Spain. Large amounts of equipment are left behind, much of which is secretly sold by Spain to Yugoslavia.
April. Advance talks for joint German/Italian operations commence. German planning for the invasion of Poland also commences.
April 7. Italian forces land at Durazzo and Valona in Albania.
May 22. Following the signing of the Pact of Steel, Il Duce begins to take renewed interest in Yugoslavia and Greece. Yugoslavia is seen as the primary conquest, with Greece a secondary one, or even client state. Mussolini has in place invasion plans for Greece and destabilisation plans for Yugoslavia. He feels it important to be ready to assert Italian claims to predominance in the Danube/Balkans while Germany was preoccupied with Poland.
May 30. The 'Cavallero Memorandum' is despatched to Berlin explaining that Mussolini recognises that war is inevitable and that in the first moment of hostility the Italian aim is to seize the Balkans as far as the Danube and to put Greece, Rumania and Turkey hors de combat.
May 31. Il Duce informs Ciano that he has no intention to ease relations with France.
June. Ciano signs an agreement with the Croat leader Vladko Macek that provides for a rising against Belgrade in 4-5 months, Italian military intervention and a Croat puppet state. Italy had now ‘acquired new continental objectives of a European territorial value’.
June 22. Orders for invasion of Poland signed and concealed mobilisation commences.
July. The British plan in the event of Italy joining Germany in a war is for the RN to sweep the Eastern Mediterranean of Italian submarines, attack Libyan bases, and launch carrier strikes on Taranto. The French are to bombard the Italian coast from Palermo to Genoa while also invading Libya from Tunisia. However the French war party cannot overcome the Italophiles within cabinet, nor the French army's desire to reduce risk in light of German military might.
July. Mussolini assures Hitler that should he decide to fight, then Italy would be behind him 100% and mobilise at a moments notice.
August 11/12. In Salzburg Hitler (which TTL Mussolini attends) refuses to reconsider the planned Polish invasion that Italy has by now caught wind of and urges Italy to take the opportunity and attack Yugoslavia. IOTL Il Duce pulled back because the RE was not ready - not so ITTL. Hitler explains that the best thing for the Axis would be to liquidate the neutral states of Europe one after the other; just as Austria, Czechoslovakia and Albania had already been invaded; each partner should cover the other in turn as they took their pick. Yugoslavia is mentioned in this context.
August 15. Il Duce meets with Marshal Cavallero and says war is imminent. He proposes a landing in Croatia and Salonika. While Cavallero pointed out the vulnerability of Libya, Il Duce held that gains from Yugoslavia and Greece would more than compensate for the loss of Libya.
August 25. IOTL Il Duce orders a mobilisation decree to be prepared: ITTL it is a full mobilisation order
September 1. Germany attacks Poland
Croesus