1493: Saxony, Hansa, Scandinavia, Mechlenberg.

[AJNolte]

(Note: I include Scandinavia because I kind of want to know how they stand vis-a-vis the reformation).

I have the following plans for the Hansa, Saxony, Mechlenberg and their associated realms.
1. I think ErnstFrederick has a good chance of being elected Holy Roman Emperor outright. Should this happen, he will appoint his brother PhilipAlbert his regent in Saxony proper. PhilipAlbert's main contribution will be to promote the power and influence of merchants and bergers in the Saxon estates in order to check the ambitions of the great nobles and promote prosperity. ErnstFrederick will attempt to prevent wholesale religious war in the HRE while promoting trade and seeking to tie the HRE more solidly together (or, at the very least, make it's governance more rational). I'm toying whith having him eventually call a greater diet of all the princes, bishops, magnates and merchants (represented perhaps by the Hansa) of the HRE to work up a more firm and clear system of governance.

Speaking of the Hansa:
The Hansa is already starting to morph into two separate organizations. The Wendish free cities and remnents of Teutonic Prussia will, by 1531 or 2, form the Hanseatic and Teutonic Federation (the remaining Catholic Teutonic knights having already joined the Hospitalers). The HTF will function almost as a state within a state, loyal to the emperor directly (after all he is the one who granted the original charter for the Wendish Federation)k, but seeking to maintain as much autonomy as possible within the framework of the HRE. The actual Hanseatic League is becoming more of a loose trading association of free cities and small, independent republics. I think this decentralization might continue, particularly as the Count Palatinate brings the rhenish free cities more directly under his thumb.

Re: Malta, the hardest thing to figure out is exactly where it's going to go religiously. OTL the Maltese population were dedicated Catholics, and I see no reason why this would change, at least not quickly, ITTL. However, the HTF, which has substantial trading interests in Malta, is pretty firmly Wettinite. Is it too early for a "let whosoever will come and trade, so long as they are Christians and take their religious wars elsewhere" mentality?

Mechlenberg...depends on what Scandinavia does. If they remain Catholic, I could see Mechlenberg (backed by Wettinite interests in the HRE) pushing it's claim to Norway again. If they go Wettinite...probably not.

[Keenir]

Re: Malta, the hardest thing to figure out is exactly where it's going to go religiously. OTL the Maltese population were dedicated Catholics, and I see no reason why this would change, at least not quickly, ITTL. However, the HTF, which has substantial trading interests in Malta, is pretty firmly Wettinite. Is it too early for a "let whosoever will come and trade, so long as they are Christians and take their religious wars elsewhere" mentality?

I see two outcomes:
* if they don't change, the HTF might lose out to one of those nations who have remained Catholic. (Naples, perhaps, or the Alpines using the harbors of Genoa)

* if they go "let whosoever will come and trade, so long as they are Christians" policy, the HTF might still lose out. (this time, losing to the Ottomans or the Portugese, two large trading forces with strong navies to brush aside the HTF)

[AJNolte]

I see two outcomes:
* if they don't change, the HTF might lose out to one of those nations who have remained Catholic. (Naples, perhaps, or the Alpines using the harbors of Genoa)

* if they go "let whosoever will come and trade, so long as they are Christians" policy, the HTF might still lose out. (this time, losing to the Ottomans or the Portugese, two large trading forces with strong navies to brush aside the HTF)

UNope: no Ottomans, not directly (Ottoman trade through Rhodes or Venice: no problem). No Portuguese either, unless they recognize the rights of others to trade. The last thing the Ports will want is a siege of the nearly impregnable fortress city of Sanmaria (and it'll be longer than five months I promise; this being the length of time it took the Ottomans to besiege and fail to capture the island). But honestly, I can't see the Portuguese bothering one way or the other.

What I'm imagining is a compromise whereby the Spanish-Neapolitan block and the Hansa would both be allowed to trade in Malta, thereby allowing them to trade with each other while maintaining a certain degree of plausible deniability vis-a-vis their respective religious authorities, who may well be at each other's throats.

BTW: sorry Keenir, but Malta will still be a hub of anti-Muslim piracy. It's still a very good location for it, and even without the Knights of Malta, has a deeply religious and fanatically anti-Muslim population. It will mostly be directed against the north African corsairs however.

[Keenir]

BTW: sorry Keenir, but Malta will still be a hub of anti-Muslim piracy.

:confused: What're you apologizing for? I was going to use Christian ships anyway....I've got all these Assyrians and Greeks and Armenians here in Constantinople, after all. :D

[AJNolte]

:confused: What're you apologizing for? I was going to use Christian ships anyway....I've got all these Assyrians and Greeks and Armenians here in Constantinople, after all. :D


Good idea; creates plausible deniability for the Maltese republican authorities if they're accused of trading with the "heathen Turk" "We were just trading with Assyrians, Armenians and Anetolian Greeks...).
But Malta will be plundering the African corsair states and their shipping. Any objections? (c'mon: you know they're irritating). No Christian ships though...definitely not that. <g>

[Keenir]

But Malta will be plundering the African corsair states and their shipping. Any objections? (c'mon: you know they're irritating). No Christian ships though...definitely not that. <g>

the Ottomans have no designs on North Africa, nor protecting those pirates. (Isa wants naval supremacy wherever possible - and while the Portugese are too much to crush, he's not going to lift a finger to save the corsairs)

[Psychomeltdown]

UNope: no Ottomans, not directly (Ottoman trade through Rhodes or Venice: no problem). No Portuguese either, unless they recognize the rights of others to trade. The last thing the Ports will want is a siege of the nearly impregnable fortress city of Sanmaria (and it'll be longer than five months I promise; this being the length of time it took the Ottomans to besiege and fail to capture the island). But honestly, I can't see the Portuguese bothering one way or the other.

What I'm imagining is a compromise whereby the Spanish-Neapolitan block and the Hansa would both be allowed to trade in Malta, thereby allowing them to trade with each other while maintaining a certain degree of plausible deniability vis-a-vis their respective religious authorities, who may well be at each other's throats.
I'm guessing the Hansa will be the only ones bringing trade into Malta. Since you're not letting the Ottomans into the trade, which is bad since the only other source is the Ports who also have connections with the Eastern Trade. Portugal is becoming a hub for trading, Lisbon and Porto being open to foreign traders, Ports selling spices, silks, and whatnot for basically raw materials and goods it can't produce. Therefore the Ports don't really have to go to you, instead you'll be going to them for trade. Spain and Naples effectively have no capabilities to trade outside the Med and will probably be that way for another generation, if the Ports have anything to say about it.

Therefore you'll be relying what can be gotten the LONG way around the Ottomans or what the Hansa can bring in and they're mostly relying upon being secondary traders for England? There is the intercontinental trade, but that's pretty much high bulk, low profit sort of trading. Unless Hansa shoves it's way into the Eastern Trade and manages to hang on to it, then it'll always be peddling secondary wares throughout Europe.

There's a reason power shifted from the Med to the Atlantic boarding nations in the 16th cent. Trade, control of trade routes... Malta will most likely decline in the next generation, losing power completely by the end of the century. Those defenses must cost a pretty penny to maintain...

BTW: sorry Keenir, but Malta will still be a hub of anti-Muslim piracy. It's still a very good location for it, and even without the Knights of Malta, has a deeply religious and fanatically anti-Muslim population. It will mostly be directed against the north African corsairs however.

Isn't France invading N. Africa?

[AJNolte]

I'm guessing the Hansa will be the only ones bringing trade into Malta. Since you're not letting the Ottomans into the trade, which is bad since the only other source is the Ports who also have connections with the Eastern Trade. Portugal is becoming a hub for trading, Lisbon and Porto being open to foreign traders, Ports selling spices, silks, and whatnot for basically raw materials and goods it can't produce. Therefore the Ports don't really have to go to you, instead you'll be going to them for trade. Spain and Naples effectively have no capabilities to trade outside the Med and will probably be that way for another generation, if the Ports have anything to say about it.

Therefore you'll be relying what can be gotten the LONG way around the Ottomans or what the Hansa can bring in and they're mostly relying upon being secondary traders for England? There is the intercontinental trade, but that's pretty much high bulk, low profit sort of trading. Unless Hansa shoves it's way into the Eastern Trade and manages to hang on to it, then it'll always be peddling secondary wares throughout Europe.

There's a reason power shifted from the Med to the Atlantic boarding nations in the 16th cent. Trade, control of trade routes... Malta will most likely decline in the next generation, losing power completely by the end of the century. Those defenses must cost a pretty penny to maintain...



Isn't France invading N. Africa?


You misunderstand. Open trade means open trade. If the Ports want to trade in Malta, that's fine. The Ottomans will be doing a lot of trade through Christian surrogates (a beneficial arrangement for both, since the Sultan wouldn't want to be seen to be trading with the 'Christian pirates'). What Portugal can't plausibly do is take over Malta and demand a trade monopoly. But then again, you would have no reason to do so.
Portugal's problem is it's still a monopolistic, mercantilist economy. Inevitably you're going to get outpaced by free trade blocks and capitalism unless you reform. But you're making so much money off being mercantilist at present that there's no reason for you to do so. Now, being mercantilistic, why would you trade with other people? Doesn't that defeat the entire purpose of your economic system?