Perry conquers Japan!

[jeff]

After watching a show on the History Channel about samurai, I got to wondering what would have happened if Perry, instead of only opening Japan to trade with the US, had actually managed to conquer Japan. I know it's unlikely, but then again, history is filled with events that although unlikely managed to occur.

[Susano]

Err... conquered with what? Conquering an entire nation of Japans sizewith just a small flotilla seems rather not workable...

[Calgacus]

Err... conquered with what? Conquering an entire nation of Japans sizewith just a small flotilla seems rather not workable...

Cortes? Pizzarro? I know the situation is different, but I just wanted to point out that you can conquer a large nation with small numbers.

[David S Poepoe]

Cortes? Pizzarro? I know the situation is different, but I just wanted to point out that you can conquer a large nation with small numbers.

Cortez didn't conquer just with small numbers. He did have native allies, those wanting to throw off Aztec domination. Pizzarro, IIRC, pretty much decapitated the Inca 'government' and was able to seize power in the aftermath.

Perry couldn't conquer Japan with his numbers. He doesn't quite have the technological edge to win a land war.

[Sir John A.]

I was just thinking that... I guess Japan instead of the Philippines would be the center of American activity in East Asia, naval bases and such.

I don't know how the proud Japanese would act towards their new American overlords, perhaps some kind of samurai resistance in the mountains? How the Americans would treat their new Japanese subjects, they were kind colonizers, so they would treat Japan like the Philippines in OTL, preparing it for eventual independence. Before that eventual independence, Japan would be a Philippine Commonwealth-like state. The Shogunate would be gone but they would probably keep the Emperor like in OTL after World War II, so the new government they would install would be an American style democracy with an Emperor, so it would be a constitutional monarchy.

[Damar1]

Another issue with this is --ITTL anyway--an earlier American imperialism. OTL the US got the Phillipines and other former Sp. possessions in 1898. In the 1850s it would more difficult for the US to control territory half a world away. Not to mention the US Civil War is only a decade away---maybe this would get butterflied, but might be hard to have overseas territories and deal with the War close to home simultaneously.

[ironram]

That could be interesting . . . if the Civil War spilled out into Japan . . .
Confederate Samurai!!:D

[Sir John A.]

That could be interesting . . . if the Civil War spilled out into Japan . . .
Confederate Samurai!!:D

How exactly would the Civil War spread to Japan?

[Redem]

http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=32221

I had the same idea a while back :D

[Homer]

Cortez didn't conquer just with small numbers. He did have native allies, those wanting to throw off Aztec domination. Pizzarro, IIRC, pretty much decapitated the Inca 'government' and was able to seize power in the aftermath.

Perry couldn't conquer Japan with his numbers. He doesn't quite have the technological edge to win a land war.

All very true, yet there's always a possibility:

Perry arrives and stays for some time. He gets involved in interior politics, and a competitor of the ruling shogun gets his favour - in exchange for weapons and "advisors". A civil war occurs, in which both shoguns - and let's say a third one emerging in the Southern provinces - fight against each other. The Americans change sides when necessary, and after 15 years of continuous fighting, an american mission to kyoto makes a deal with the court (let's say the emperor is a kid at the time), who accepts increased American "influence" against peace. The shogunes are killed with heavy american help, but before the war is over, the court realizes that the Americans hold the actual power. civil war is prolonged by yet another 3 years with direct American involvement. The emperor then accepts a new order in which the emperor is officially head of state - as before - the shogun is officially head of government, yet the real power lies in the hands of the "high council", in which there are only Americans.

[ninebucks]

Americans at this time are less likely to be tolerant of Monarchism, seeing as many of the USA's enemies at this time, as opposed to in the 1940s, are Absolute Monarchies, so I don't think the position of Emperor is that secured.

[Nicksplace27]

How exactly would the Civil War spread to Japan?

Admit japan as several states, south being slave holding, north being free.

Boom, Confederate Samurais

[David S Poepoe]

Perry arrives and stays for some time. He gets involved in interior politics, and a competitor of the ruling shogun gets his favour - in exchange for weapons and "advisors". A civil war occurs, in which both shoguns - and let's say a third one emerging in the Southern provinces - fight against each other. The Americans change sides when necessary, and after 15 years of continuous fighting, an american mission to kyoto makes a deal with the court (let's say the emperor is a kid at the time), who accepts increased American "influence" against peace. The shogunes are killed with heavy american help, but before the war is over, the court realizes that the Americans hold the actual power. civil war is prolonged by yet another 3 years with direct American involvement. The emperor then accepts a new order in which the emperor is officially head of state - as before - the shogun is officially head of government, yet the real power lies in the hands of the "high council", in which there are only Americans.

Once the US becomes involved what will keep another Japanese clan from securing British or French aid? Can't see Perry staying for any prolong period of time and he also didn't have the authority to do so. No 'let's say', might as well completely write fiction. Stick to historical knowns.

I could see that any American influence, as mentioned above, would draw in other powers and there may be an international congress to divide the Japanese islands among the Great Powers. The US doesn't have the military power to keep out any foreign intervention.

[Redem]

Admit japan as several states, south being slave holding, north being free.

Boom, Confederate Samurais

I doubt U.S could afford such a strentch of force in 1854. Their West Coast was seriously underdeveloped at the time. They had only a rought idea of what the place was like and unlike Inca and Aztec Japan had gun.

[Nicole]

This is really, really, unlikely- simply put, at the time the United States is in no condition whatsoever to go conquer anywhere overseas from the Pacific coast, and isn't even interested in conquering Japan anyway.

[Redem]

Well I tried to do TL where Japan would be warp enough (aka unstable) for the U.S to exploit it following an incident were a bunch of his crew is slaughtered.

[Nicole]

Well I tried to do TL where Japan would be warp enough (aka unstable) for the U.S to exploit it following an incident were a bunch of his crew is slaughtered.
Yes, but the question remains why? The Americans would probably go do some show of force to yell at Japan, but really we weren't interested in doing anything more than getting a trade agreement... and even if Japan was unstable, if it was unstable enough for other powers to shove themselves in the British or French would probably beat us to it.

[Bill Cameron]

... but really we weren't interested in doing anything more than getting a trade agreement...


Imajin,

And we weren't that interested in actual trade between the US and Japan either. It was more a case of "Let our whalers pay to resupply in your ports" and "Stop killing our shipwrecked seamen out of hand". The amount of trade goods flowing between the US and Japan would remain miniscule until the 20th Century.

Given the nature of the OP's POD, I'm rather surprised this thread hasn't been moved to the ASB forum already.


Bill

[Smaug]

No flockin way a few American ships could've taken Japan. 5 Percent chance if they kidnap the Emperor, and even than, not likely.

[NapoleonXIV]

The Daimyo were always fractious under the Tokugawa. Satsuma, to my understanding, was a longtime center of smuggling in foreign goods that was already trying to recruit a modern army of its own, and Choshu had a standing tradition of meeting each year to determine if it was time to overthrow the Shogun.

That being said, the main punitive aspects of Perry's expeditions IIRC had to do with Satsuma hostility to foreigners. There is also, as has been mentioned, no way I can see other powers not becoming involved, especially once they learn how wealthy Japan had become in her isolation.

It's possible that American influence saved Japan from being conquered by the British and/or the Russians. I've always wondered why they didn't, since Japan was certainly a rich prize and not an economic basket case like China at this time. Possibly they were staved off by the large population, coupled with the threat of America as a modern ally, but that is pure speculation on my part.