WI Louisiana stays Spanish?

[Thande]

As a variation on the other thread, WI Napoleon didn't secretly have Spain cede Louisiana to France as part of the Treaty of San Ildefonso (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Treaty_of_San_Ildefonso)?

What would the US have done if Louisiana continues being Spanish - and would Louisiana have become part of Mexico when the rebellions come against Spain?

Maybe the American settlers who went into Texas in OTL colonise the uninhabited hinterland of Mexican Louisiana instead?

[Dean_the_Young]

What would the US have done if Louisiana continues being Spanish - and would Louisiana have become part of Mexico when the rebellions come against Spain?


Well, the US would certainly sniff around and make a purchase attempt for the city. Jefferson was willing to offer $12 million for just the city, Spain might consider making the purchase since New Orleans itself is relatively worthless as a money maker. You don't even have to sell the Louisiana territory; that could serve as a boundary dispute later on that might drive forth more money from the Yanks in exchange for land yankee settlers would be occupying.

One thing to remember is that one of the fears of the US adminstrations, that of losing the right of deposit, was quickly relieved by Spanish officials in New Orleans. When France had decided to let the lease die off, Spanish officials renewed it. This would take off an early drive for war, though Spain often incited indians against American settlers.

Might Britain still support a US attack on New Orleans, if it came to that? That's a European issue, so I'm ignorant. However, the US could easily take advantage of Spain's occupation in the Napoleonic War to seize the city when Spain was helpless to act on it.

But my guess is that, should the Mexican Revolution continue as planned, the US would join in and seize New Orleans. What passes for the Mexican state might claim New Orleans as well as the rest of "New Spain", but there's no reason the historically sad leadership of Mexico won't repeat itself. Mexico controling New Orleans when the US has such an interest in it seems near-ASB to me, without massive PoDs.


Maybe the American settlers who went into Texas in OTL colonise the uninhabited hinterland of Mexican Louisiana instead?

Perhaps, but this would depend on how long New Orleans is kept away from the US. If it's a matter of even a decade, the settlement pattern might not change as much as it did. The US still had land in the East, and settlers might promise to follow Spanish rules until the US comes in to stay.