Confederate Superpower

[ConfederateFly]

Can anybody think of a TL then post it with the Confederates somehow becoming a superpower in the military, navy, and territorrial matters?

[Straha]

a great power yes a superpower no. The northern 3rd of mexico,the spanish carribean and central america are the most they could get without giving thme the luck of the draka and ak-47s from uptime

[ConfederateFly]

Does anybody have a TL?

[Straha]

can't think of any CSA superpower TLs right now sorry

[ConfederateFly]

Does anybody else have a timeline for the Confederate Superpower?

[Beck Reilly]

A CSA superpower timeline would not be plausible. No timeline will have the CSA doing much better than the southern states did in OTL. Even if you assume that the CSA did as well as the ex-Confederate states of OTL (unlikely), you'll see that the Confederate GNP would be between $1.5 and $2 trillion dollars, making it the fourth largest economy in the world (under the USA, Japan, and China; directly above Germany, India, France, and the UK).

That would make the CSA a world power, but not a superpower.

[David S Poepoe]

Does anybody else have a timeline for the Confederate Superpower?

Why the heck don't you post something substantial for once. You harp on about the same improbable subject. In the Confederate Navy debate Grey Wolf, Walter Kaufman and myself have repeatedly pointed out to you that your ATL is completely unlikely - if not impossible. You can no concept of how badly off the Confederacy would be. You don't even appear to have anything more than passing faint familiarity with Civil War history, its economic, socio-political and foreign policy, etc. sides.

I think it would be nice - instructive - if you really thought hard about a plausible ATL for your subject. It will mean that you will have to do more than the 3 minutes of research you usually do. It will also mean that your ATL will have to be much more developed, indepth and detailed. I've been sitting on a ATL Confederate Superpower that I've worked on, partly since I get interested in new historical PODs and fine tuning. My immediate suggestion is that you visit your local library and borrow a bunch of books that examine the military, political and foreign relations, etc. aspects of the Civil War. Don't make hollow declarations, give some thought to being realistic, there is cause and effect in history.

[Beck Reilly]

LOL, David....

My thoughts exactly.

[ConfederateFly]

Now I have one question for you since you know so much. Since the Confederacy didn't win then we wouldn't know what you sa may be wrong it could of happened but, since your a Library Assitant then you should know :D

[Beck Reilly]

Look, if you're going to write something, you have to know a little bit about the socio-economic factors of the time. You can't just write what you want history to be like. If you do that, you have to have ASB's. If not, you have to accept some of the changes that we suggest, not just plunge ahead with the same impossible timeline. I believe that if you look at mine, David's, and Grey Wolf's posts, you'll find some stuff to look up on Encarta or whatever. But until then, at least consider our suggestions.

[ConfederateFly]

I'm sorry everybody if I sound like a jerk tonight I have a headache and when I am sick I don't take critisicism well. I do need to do further research before I post, but I am just fascinated about how the Confederacy lasted for 4 years.

[David S Poepoe]

To quote Confederatefly:

"Now I have one question for you since you know so much."

That is one of the first statements that you have said that is true. Thankfully this time I didn't have to prove it to you, however my knowledge is not all encompassing but I do know where to find that which I don't know. Thats the axiom of research, not really knowing the fact but knowing how to locate it.

"Since the Confederacy didn't win then we wouldn't know what you sa[y] may be wrong it could of happened"

Wrong. We have the information on individuals, economics trends, technological developments, population growth and migration, etc., etc. that we can reasonably extrapolate, to a fairly high degree, the most likely outcomes.

"but, since your a Library Assitant then you should know"

Again, I can't disagree with you there. I've been working on an ATL for the past 3-4 hours and have consulted about 8 books, and thats solely about the first two years of the Civil War and in relation to the battles of Shiloh, Perrysville, Vicksburg and Atlanta - and my ATL doesn't even center on the Confederate States. I'm building the ground work to give some plausibility to my POD and gaining some familiarity with the events in order that I can at least debate my POD if someone questions it.

[Diamond]

That's the way to do it. Research, research, and then... more research. The first major TL I posted for you guys, a long time back - 'Mehmet's Legacy' - was torn to shreds due to faulty research and wrong assumptions. After thoroughly researching it's background, I've been able to turn it into the basis for a novel-in-progress. At some point next year, I'll be submitting it to publishers. The posters here were directly responsible for a lot of the ideas contained therein.

Just do a little research, Confederatefly. It will pay off. And just a suggestion - develop some other areas of interest besides the CSA and what their military would look like in 1870 or after allying with France or whatever.

[Grey Wolf]

I have a timeline in the Archives called 'Longer Crimean War'

The basic idea is

- The Crimean War goes on into 1856
This brings the USA and Great Britain into conflict
At the same time, France and Britain intervene in Mexico
This results in a reborn Iturbide empire in Mexico

- Civil war breaks out in the USA
Mexico joins the Confederacy
Britain and France are involved; historical emnity to USA
and great power politics

It makes more sense if you actually read the timeline !

But the outcome is that from the ACW the Confederacy emerges with the Southern half of the New Mexico territory, whilst Mexico also regains San Diego county (which they had not wanted to cede at Guadeloupe-Hidalgo, arguing that it was part of Baja)

The relationship between the Confederacy and the Union is always unstable but short of actual war - proxy wars are fought amongst the Indian Nations, and a larger role for the Mormons.

The CSA had its navy built on the British-French model, and continue with this.

I eventually timelined it to the 1930s and wrote 6 chapters of a novel set in the 1930s which can be found at :-

http://www.infinitywanderers.com/longercrimeanwar.html

Chapter 6 has some definite CSA mention

Grey Wolf

[tom]

ConfederateFly:
Maybe you can just decide not to post when you have a headache.
And I do sympathize...my time is very limited, and I know how hard it is to do the research. I also know how hard it can be to have one of your "children" criticized. But they can be made better this way. I plan to have a different and less ravaged (still pretty ravaged) Cuban Missile War world on this site's Interplanar Association than in the old Mosaic Earth thread because of the criticism I asked for and received.

[Xen]

Ive always wondered why people keep asking about SUPERPOWERS , historically there have been very few and the odds of any nation achieving such a status isn't very good. Ive seen everything ranging from a Papal Superpower to the Polish Superpower and I believe there was once a Swiss Superpower. What is the obsession with Superpowers? As powerful as China is, it is not a superpower, as potent as India is, it is not a superpower.

[Beck Reilly]

Xen, I think, although what you say is quite true, people like to think that any nation they want could, at some point, become THE dominant power in the world. It makes things more clearly defined and allows people to imagine a small nation, like Poland or Switzerland, becoming enormously powerful.

[Grey Wolf]

Ive always wondered why people keep asking about SUPERPOWERS , historically there have been very few and the odds of any nation achieving such a status isn't very good. Ive seen everything ranging from a Papal Superpower to the Polish Superpower and I believe there was once a Swiss Superpower. What is the obsession with Superpowers? As powerful as China is, it is not a superpower, as potent as India is, it is not a superpower.

I think people mean Great Power and are just using an anachronistic term for it - after all the word super-power (or, dreadful thought hyper-power which I hear the USA called now) only make sense in comparison to some other pre-existing term for a BIG power.

So, if the question is whether the CSA could have become a GREAT POWER then we simply need to define what that means...

Grey Wolf

[ConfederateFly]

You could define a great power by its territory, economic, social, and military parts of the country. Also by its place on the world stage.

[Beck Reilly]

There's no way the Confederate States of America could become a superpower. It's sheer mathematics.

The highest that the CSA GNP is ever going to get is between $2 and $3 trillion, at the highest. That will make it either 2nd or 3rd on the world stage, at the highest.

In fact, it is likely that the CSA GNP, by the nature of the CSA economy, won't break $2 trillion.

The CSA has the potention to become a great power, yes. A superpower, no.

[tom]

I thought one requirement is that there are only a few superpowers at the most, and no other country can harm the superpower without undergoing unacceptable damage itself.

[Grey Wolf]

Well, if we accept that we are really talking about the CSA being a Great power in the period where there were NO superpowers but a world of great powers, then we are looking for its POWER-PROJECTION capability and its INFLUENCE beyond its own back door to be on a par with Russia or France or the late nineteenth century USA

Grey Wolf

[ConfederateFly]

After the ACW how would the Confederacy make a Confederate Merchant Marine? Would they buy former blockade runners and have some built in Europe like the Owl

[LDoc]

I doubt you'll see an organized merchant mariner instead each state would have their own little merchant mariner to trade their goods abroad. The ships would be mostly those captured durring the war with European ships comming in latter.

[ConfederateFly]

But wouldn't the goverment have a small merchant marine to sell cotton for products for the goverment? Like they did with goverment blockade runners because privately owned BR were bringing in private products for the citizens

[LDoc]

i doubt it. in fact i beat the only military the CSA would have would be completly state-based, meaning the states would have their own milities and navies. cotton growing states would sell their cotton for themselfs.

[Grey Wolf]

i doubt it. in fact i beat the only military the CSA would have would be completly state-based, meaning the states would have their own milities and navies. cotton growing states would sell their cotton for themselfs.

Here is the Constitution of the Confederate States of America. Perhaps everyone would like to read it ?

http://www.law.ou.edu/hist/csa.constitution.html

Articles 12 and 13 of Section VIII have some bearing

Article 1 of Section IX has relevance to a previous discussion

Article 3 of Section X states explicitly
"Nor shall any State keep troops or ships of war in time of peace, enter into any agreement or compact with another State, or with a foreign power, or engage in war, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent danger as will not admit of delay"

Grey Wolf

[LDoc]

the problem is that the CSA had no way of enforcing this. even durring the civil war their were state militias that were held back from the front to defend their native lands. The CSA couldn't even enforce the day of national holiday with different states chossing different dates. The whole purpose of the civil war and the souths scession was about states rights and i doubt if your going to have any kind of central authority over the states.

[David S Poepoe]

Realistically, it will all come down to financing a permanently standing state army and the harm it will do by having so many young men being withheld from the economy.

However, it appears to me most likely that there will be a small standing army which in time of war would find its ranks swelled by state militias. The ration of CS Army to CS Volunteers officers and men would probably be pretty low. There would probably be very slow mobilization plans.

What immediately comes to mind is the British Army in the Great War, and how the British Army officers regarded and treated the colonial troops. The professional officer corps will probably be were true Confederate nationalism and a want for a greater centralized government would originate from. Thoughts of the Austro-Hungarian Imperial and Royal Army also come to mind.

[NapoleonXIV]

I thought one requirement is that there are only a few superpowers at the most, and no other country can harm the superpower without undergoing unacceptable damage itself.

..., I don't think so. Thats a Great Power. A Superpower is like England after Vienna where she could readily defeat even the combined forces of her next two strongest rivals.(in navies) The theory is that no more than two countries will ever be able to get together quickly w/o going at each other first and so you can never be defeated and thus 'rule the world' as long as you have good diplomats who can keep big coalitions from forming against you. The US and Russia are probably the only two to exist together at once in modern history

[Faeelin]

Dixie in Alternate Earths?

[ConfederateFly]

What if the Confederacy somehow got a hold of Hawaii or Southern California would they have a better chance of recieving some colonies in the Pacific?

[David S Poepoe]

What if the Confederacy somehow got a hold of Hawaii or Southern California would they have a better chance of recieving some colonies in the Pacific?

The Confederacy getting Hawaii ignores the fact that Britain, France and the United States have a treaty binding them to maintaining Hawaii's independence. At the least I see the British and Americans refusing to permit the Confederacy from occupying Hawaii. Regarding Southern California, which I guess would be solely the San Diego area or there abouts, I also don't see it happening. I doubt the US would permit the dismemberment of loyal state (tho that argument is kind of mute) and I don't think the Californians will stand for it. They are very anti-slavery, there is also the distance to which any campaign would have to be fought. No, I doubt either possibility.

[LDoc]

The Confederacy simply doesn't have A) the natural resources to be a modern economic power B) the ability to get those resources C) the Confederacy didn't have a very modern mind set. Even if they have early gains once the 20th century comes around their simply gone as a factor in the world, if not sooner.

[Grey Wolf]

I think he means Baja California when he says Southern (i.e. the long dangly bit that's still part of Mexico). Interestingly, at the time of the Treaty of Guadelupe-Hidalgo the Mexicans complained that San Diego was properly part of Baja and should not be ceded to the USA along with the rest of (Upper) California. But I don't think that with an 1860s POD we are looking at San Diego being split apart from the Union.

Hawaii IMHO is impossible. The CSA does not have the economic interests there that the USA had prior to annexation. And one cannot see the Confederacy getting such interests.

Grey Wolf

[Stars-and-Stripes]

It's not implausible. If the CSA industrialized, conquered parts of the Caribbean and Mexico, and then maybe won a few more wars with USA while Union was in troubled times then maybe, just maybe. Alternatively you could have the USA fracture and split allowing the CSA to become dominant in North America.

[RamscoopRaider]

It's not implausible. If the CSA industrialized, conquered parts of the Caribbean and Mexico, and then maybe won a few more wars with USA while Union was in troubled times then maybe, just maybe. Alternatively you could have the USA fracture and split allowing the CSA to become dominant in North America.
They wouldn't. Industrialize or win any later wars. Others know this far better than I

As for the US fracturing, once the CSA is gone the answer is no, not going to happen.

[benjamin]

Holy thread necromancy Batman!!

I don't really have anything to add to this already heavily debated topic, but it does make me sad to see so many banned members who I once enjoyed exchanging ideas with. Diamond had great maps.

Oh, well.

Benjamin

[RamscoopRaider]

Holy thread necromancy Batman!!

I don't really have anything to add to this already heavily debated topic, but it does make me sad to see so many banned members who I once enjoyed exchanging ideas with. Diamond had great maps.

Oh, well.

Benjamin
Shit I didn't notice this was necro'd when I posted, d'oh

[Alex1guy]

Most of the people who made this thread are probably dead by now lol

[B_Munro]

We have a good superpowered Confederacy TL.

It's called "Decades of Darkness." :)

Bruce

[CaliBoy1990]

We have a good superpowered Confederacy TL.

It's called "Decades of Darkness." :)

Bruce

Which has had the same amount of rather extreme good fortune as any known Super-Confederacy TL I've ever seen, especially in the 20th century. ;)

[benjamin]

Which has had the same amount of rather extreme good fortune as any known Super-Confederacy TL I've ever seen, especially in the 20th century. ;)

Actually, I've never been a fan of DoD for exactly that reason. It reminds me of something Stirling would write. American Draka!!

Imagine a ASB ISOT where the US from DoD is transferred to the Draka TL. Talk about horrid hellholes. Not fun.

Benjamin

[Fiver]

It's not implausible. If the CSA industrialized, conquered parts of the Caribbean and Mexico, and then maybe won a few more wars with USA while Union was in troubled times then maybe, just maybe. Alternatively you could have the USA fracture and split allowing the CSA to become dominant in North America.

While the CSA was industrializing, it was doing so at a significantly slower rate than the Union. The massive debt they used to fund the ACW left them in worse financial shape than the modern Greek debt crisis. They were also very immigrant-unfriendly, and so lacked the population for heavy industrialization.

Much of the CSA was expansionistic, but every attempt whether by force or diplomacy, to obtain territory from the US or Mexico, failed. The CSA lacked the force projection abilities to take and hold New Mexico Territory, let alone parts of Latin America. Invading Mexico risks war with France in the short term, as well as the Union.

There's also the problem that the Confederacy was founded on the idea that any state can leave at any time for any reason. Every issue, every election, risks the CSA losing states or even fragmenting.

The Confederacy has no chance of becoming a superpower and is extremely unlikely to become a great power. If they do very well, they might become an important regional power, but even that's optimistic.

[Snake Featherston]

I recommend Timeline-191. The Confederacy wins two wars against the United States, it fights the Second World War with the ability to exterminate a third of its population and produce the weapons of modern war up to and including nukes and to abolish slavery on a whim in the 1880s, Constitution and ideology be damned.