Soviet Collapse 1945

[Xen]

How would the world develop if the Soviet Union collapsed from bankruptcy in 1945? Perhaps they attempt to loot and plunder eastern Europe but theres nothing there to plunder due to the Nazi's. Would Communism be considered a failure? How would the war in Civil War in China go? What would come in place in Russia? Would/could there be a Marshall Plan for eastern Europe?

[MerryPrankster]

I read a TL once where a more vigorous Nazi defense in the East causes the USSR to collapse (army mutinies, typhus epidemics, etc) and it ends up that all of Germany is under Western Allied control, but the remnants of the Nazi regime and their allies roam the rail networks of Eastern Europe, slinging various V-weapons at the occupiers of Germany.

[dualshock71]

Here's how I see it. USSR crumbles at the end of WW2. If that were to happen, you exponentially change the course of events.

For instance, just starting, you divide Berlin into 3 sections, not 4. There's no Berlin Wall, no Berlin Airlift, yadda yadda yadda.

Second, with the collapse of the largest Communist power, Communism appears less favorably. China might not go Communist. Without a Communist nation defying the idea that they can't exist, even a Communist Cuba might be gone.

There's a rush by various nations to carve up the remains of a chaotic and fractured Russia, although this will probably not spark any wars in a war-torn world.

The Marshall Plan may or may not come into existence depending on the President at the time. If we have a President determined to either be a good guy or gain support in the world, it might have happened.

But, quite frankly, the US needed the USSR to get where it was. If the USSR dissolved after WW2, there's no incentive to, for instance, go to space. And while you will stop some events in history, like the Red Scare, the bad might just outweigh the good.

[alt_historian]

I read a TL once where a more vigorous Nazi defense in the East causes the USSR to collapse (army mutinies, typhus epidemics, etc) and it ends up that all of Germany is under Western Allied control, but the remnants of the Nazi regime and their allies roam the rail networks of Eastern Europe, slinging various V-weapons at the occupiers of Germany.

That sounds interesting... any chance of a link?

[Markus]

How would the world develop if the Soviet Union collapsed from bankruptcy in 1945? Perhaps they attempt to loot and plunder eastern Europe but theres nothing there to plunder due to the Nazi's.

They were bankrupt, they did plunder and there was enough to steal. Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania had been allies of Germany, the CSR had been occupied, but it´s industry was preserved. And last but not least the Russians looted East Germany which was much, much more industrialized than West Germany at that time.

[Wendell]

The world today would be a much better place.

[Faeelin]

The world today would be a much better place.

For America, sure.

But I bet Marshall Aid isn't coming for you guys.

Does the EU still form?

[Wendell]

If there is not a USSR, then there is not a cold war.

[Faeelin]

If there is not a USSR, then there is not a cold war.

So?

How much was the suffering of the post war era due to the Cold War, and how much to the governments in place?

Will Mao's China be any better ATL?

Who takes over in the East?

[Emperor Qianlong]

Does the EU still form?

Perhaps yes. There would be still ambitions to prevent the various European nations from going to war again, and a coal-steel union between France and Germany would still be possible (hence the base for the EU).

OTOH, if the Allies pull through the Morgenthau plan for Germany, then it certainly won't happen. Even though they knew it was unfeasible, even in 1945, unless they exterminated or otherwise removed half of the German population.

[Faeelin]

Perhaps yes. There would be still ambitions to prevent the various European nations from going to war again, and a coal-steel union between France and Germany would still be possible (hence the base for the EU).


But in this scenario, Germany will either be united, hence more dangerous to Europe than OTL, or divided, leaving a bitter taste in the mouth of Germans.

[Wendell]

So?

How much was the suffering of the post war era due to the Cold War, and how much to the governments in place?
Ask the people of Vietnam, Afghanistan, and elsewhere in the developing world.

Will Mao's China be any better ATL?
Probably not. Will his side still win the war?

Who takes over in the East?

Eastern Europe? Probably generals, other military officers, and former communists.

[Emperor Qianlong]

But in this scenario, Germany will either be united, hence more dangerous to Europe than OTL, or divided, leaving a bitter taste in the mouth of Germans.

Well, the Morgenthau plan envisioned the creation of a North German state (including OTL's East Germany, plus Pommerania which was in OTL ceded to Poland), a South German state (including the states of Bavaria, Baden and Wurttemberg), as well as an international zone (in particularly the Ruhr area) which was to be de-industrialized and turned to rural glory. In addition, France was to annex the Saar area.

[Faeelin]

Ask the people of Vietnam, Afghanistan, and elsewhere in the developing world.

But would Vietnam be different, ATL?

Probably not. Will his side still win the war?

I think so, although who takes over in the Northeast sans the Russians will be interesting.


Eastern Europe? Probably generals, other military officers, and former communists.

Doesn't sound too nice.

Hrm.

[HurganPL]

The world today would be a much better place.
For America, sure.For Poland, Czechoslovakia, Ukraine, Belarus, Germany, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia also. No occupation by Soviet Russia means quicker rebuilding of devestated economies and better developed economies, life conditions etc.

unless they exterminated or otherwise removed half of the German population.This could be averted if all those in NSDAP, Wehrmacht, Nazi forces will be feed by farms of Poland, Ukraine while working there as labour to repair damage they made to those areas.



That sounds interesting... any chance of a link?http://members.aol.com/dalecoz/WW2_0398.htm

or divided, leaving a bitter taste in the mouth of Germans.

Too bad. I don't think other Allies like Poland will complain much about this though. It was historically Soviet Russia that led to post-WW2 rebuilding of German power as it was needed by West to counter Soviet threat. Without Soviets Germany can be made non-threatening by de-industralisation. I am sure some of the Allies would be glad to do the work required, after what they went in WW2. The question is if they would be allowed by France or Britain, but then again there wouldn't be the need for strong industrial Germany as in OTL.

[Wendell]

But would Vietnam be different, ATL?
Yes. Without the USSR, worries about Ho Chi Minh's affinity for Communism will be diminished, and France cannot threaten to join the Eastern Bloc if the U.S. endorses independence for Indochina.


I think so, although who takes over in the Northeast sans the Russians will be interesting.
Indeed.


Doesn't sound too nice.

Hrm.
That may be termporary. Regardless, however, that bad situation would be contained.

[Faeelin]

Yes. Without the USSR, worries about Ho Chi Minh's affinity for Communism will be diminished, and France cannot threaten to join the Eastern Bloc if the U.S. endorses independence for Indochina.

So we get a unified Vietnam under Ho? Mmm. Doesn't seem that nice.

That may be termporary. Regardless, however, that bad situation would be contained.

Sure; twas temporary OTL after all.

But what's the body count for Communist Rule in Eastern Europe vs. the body count for the 2nd Russian Civil War and the Polish dictatorship?

[HurganPL]

Polish dictatorship?
What Polish dictatorship ?

[Faeelin]

What Polish dictatorship ?

In the aftermath of a collapsing Third Reich and sans a Red Army, I'm not sure who'd pick up the pieces.

Choose a different nation in Eastern Europe if you wish.

[HurganPL]

Poland had a government in exile during the war made out of different politicians from several different parties. The Prime Minister was general Sikorski till 1943 when he 'died in accident', after that the Prime Minister was Stanislaw Mikolajczyk. There was no serious opposition to them in Poland-Soviet communists had a token force without any power and Germany had no supporters. So they would take over responsibility for Poland after the war.
One of the cornerstones of the Government in Exile was forming an agreement to create Polish-Czech confederation after the war, but due to Stalin's opposition this wasn't made-he opposed it as possible bloc that would resist Soviet occupation.

[Wendell]

So we get a unified Vietnam under Ho? Mmm. Doesn't seem that nice.
Could have been worse.


Sure; twas temporary OTL after all.
Seems to have been fairly permanent IMO.

But what's the body count for Communist Rule in Eastern Europe vs. the body count for the 2nd Russian Civil War and the Polish dictatorship?
It's not that simple.

[Faeelin]

It's not that simple.

No, it's not.

How is the USSR collapsing? How does the war end? Etc. etc .

I realize it sounds kinda dickish, but if Germany is victorious in the east and falls under a rain of atomic weapons, that's a different outcome than the allies beating the Red Army to Berlin.

[Wendell]

No, it's not.

But how is the USSR collapsing? How does the war end? Etc. etc .

I realize it sounds kinda dickish, but if Germany is victorious in the east and falls under a rain of atomic weapons, that's a different outcome than the allies beating the Red Army to Berlin.

I'm not sure what precisely causes the Soviets to collspse. I did not sart this thread. My guess would be that denying Lend-lease aid to Stalin would be part of this scenario.