AH Challenge: Union of the Horn

[Thande]

The current conflict in the Horn of Africa inspired me to post a challenge-

Unite the OTL lands of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia into one stable federation. Extra points if you can add the Christian areas of Sudan.

Put this here because it doesn't seem likely without a pre1900 POD, but ultra bonus points if you do manage to do it with one.

[Jared]

Seems to me that the best way to do this is to have Ethiopia become more successful, and at least hold onto most of its territory rather than having it chopped off by various colonial powers. Eritrea would likely have still been part of Ethiopia today if the Italians hadn't colonised it, and I suspect that the same is true of Djibouti. A successful, modernising Ethiopia would also probably be ready to take on some parts of Somalia and southern Sudan, depending.

So, the trick is to help Ethiopia modernise. Which basically means that Ethiopia needs to avoid the destruction of the Era of the Princes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zemene_Mesafint), or at least end it earlier.

Hmm. My knowledge of the Era of the Princes is sketchy enough that I don't know how to avoid it entirely, but stopping it earlier would probably help. An analogue of Theodore II (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tewodros_II_of_Ethiopia) looks to be the man. In OTL, he broke the power of the regional warlords, but because he spent his whole time fighting, his efforts to modernise came to naught. So, what we need is an equivalent to him born fifty years or so earlier, followed by a successor who's at least moderately competent and interested in modernisation.

Ethiopia has a huge moral advantage in avoiding colonialism, in that it's a Christian country, and this also makes it easier for it to get foreign experts in. So, if *Theodore-analogue takes power in 1800, say, and brings the warlords to heel by 1820, that gives Emperor Igcetim (Is-Just-Competent-Enough-To-Modernise-In-Time) about sixty years to play with before the Scramble for Africa really gets underway. That should be bags of time to reform the army and the goverment, at least to the point that Ethiopia hangs on to Eritrea and Djibouti. I suspect that such an Ethiopia will be a British ally (they were in OTL, for a while) and form a similar role in East Africa as the British alliance with Nippon did in East Asia. Ethiopia could go on some small-scale expansionism of its own into Somalia and southern Sudan etc, and might even pick up some former German colonies as League mandates post-WW1 (assuming there is a WW1, of course).

How's that?

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Somalia was actually never part of Ethiopia - it was Zanzibari territory before the Italians (although pretty loosely). I can come up with plenty of scenarios where Ethiopia controls the whol horn, but none where this is stable. As Ethiopia has big problems as it is, when it's only half Muslim, the addition of tribal Somalia is likely to be more than Ethiopia can handle.

Perhaps if Ethiopia got it together earlier and began a big economic expansion, political stability and expanded agriculture could have led to acquisition of all of the horn with enough Amharic population to control the whole thing?

The problem is that Suakin, Massawa, and Zeila were all Ottoman outposts from the 16th c and later Egyptian, so you need some sort of catastrophe to hit Egypt earlier, and also a delayed Scramble for Africa. Zanzibar is probably not a big problem, at least in Somalia, although the British aren't likely to surrender the ports there to Ethiopia without good reason and real benefit to them.

Seems to me that the best way to do this is to have
Ethiopia become more successful, and at least hold onto most of its territory rather than having it chopped off by various colonial powers. Eritrea would likely have still been part of Ethiopia today if the Italians hadn't colonised it, and I suspect that the same is true of Djibouti. A successful, modernising Ethiopia would also probably be ready to take on some parts of Somalia and southern Sudan, depending.

So, the trick is to help Ethiopia modernise. Which basically means that Ethiopia needs to avoid the destruction of the Era of the Princes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zemene_Mesafint), or at least end it earlier.

Hmm. My knowledge of the Era of the Princes is sketchy enough that I don't know how to avoid it entirely, but stopping it earlier would probably help. An analogue of Theodore II (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tewodros_II_of_Ethiopia) looks to be the man. In OTL, he broke the power of the regional warlords, but because he spent his whole time fighting, his efforts to modernise came to naught. So, what we need is an equivalent to him born fifty years or so earlier, followed by a successor who's at least moderately competent and interested in modernisation.

Ethiopia has a huge moral advantage in avoiding colonialism, in that it's a Christian country, and this also makes it easier for it to get foreign experts in. So, if *Theodore-analogue takes power in 1800, say, and brings the warlords to heel by 1820, that gives Emperor Igcetim (Is-Just-Competent-Enough-To-Modernise-In-Time) about sixty years to play with before the Scramble for Africa really gets underway. That should be bags of time to reform the army and the goverment, at least to the point that Ethiopia hangs on to Eritrea and Djibouti. I suspect that such an Ethiopia will be a British ally (they were in OTL, for a while) and form a similar role in East Africa as the British alliance with Nippon did in East Asia. Ethiopia could go on some small-scale expansionism of its own into Somalia and southern Sudan etc, and might even pick up some former German colonies as League mandates post-WW1 (assuming there is a WW1, of course).

How's that?