AH Challenge: Republic of Scotland

[Xen]

The title says it all. This dawned on me while reading the thread "Special Relationship". So sometime between 1900-1999 create the Republic of Scotland (or if you like the Kingdom of Scotland). Wales likely will remain part of the Union, and Northern Ireland can go either way. Lets see what we can come up with.

[Prospero]

Somehow get devolution going a few years earlier, so Scotland gets its own Parliament, say about 1970, on similar lines to the current arrangements in OTL. This leads to the West Lothian Question becoming a major political issue, as large numbers of people in England resent the fact that Scottish MPs can vote on laws in the British Parliament that apply to England but not Scotland. This leads to a reaction among a lot of the Scottish population, who think the English are having a go at them, leading to a vicious circle of nationalist prejudice on both sides. Things come to a head after the 1979 General Election, when the Thatcher government comes to power. Since Scotland is mostly socialist, the SNP and (maybe) the Scottish Labour Party press for full independence - and a faction in the Conservative Party is in favour of letting them get on with it on the grounds that "they never vote for us anyway". A referendum is held sometime in the 80s and the nationalists win (probably not very heavily, but they still win).So Scotland goes independent. Cue years of diplomatic wrangling about North Sea Oil. They'd probably keep the Queen as head of state, unless some kind of major scandal arises which boosts republican sentiment.Ulster would probably want to stay with the rump UK, partly on sentimental grounds and partly because they can't afford to pay for their own security arrangements without outside help, or they might go into some kind of confederation with Scotland, because of having stronger cultural links with Scotland than England. There's also the possibility of an Ulster Independence Movement gaining ground, with support from both Catholics and Protestants wanting to be seperate from both the UK and the Irish Republic. Ulster joining the Republic is extremely unlikely, because there'd be too much of a majority against it - the only way to do that would be by force, which just isn't going to happen.Wales could go either way. There was a lot of Welsh Nationalist activity in the early 80s, and a lot of people in Wales might think that a union consisting of just them, England and maybe Ulster is a bit too unbalanced, so an independent Wales is by no means out of the question.Assuming a full break up of the UK, the obvious question is: What's it like living in the British Isles now? Have the various national governments had enough sense to keep the borders open and trading barriers down? Personally, I live in Manchester (England). If I want to take a holiday in Portmeirion (Wales) would I have to get my money changed from English Pounds to Welsh Whatevers? Would I have to show my passport to some Customs official at the border and submit to having my car searched in case I'm smuggling steak and kidney puddings? And when I buy a haggis and a bottle of Scotch for New Year's Eve, will I have to pay more because of the import duty?

[Max Sinister]

I guess independent Scotland would stay in / join the EU.

And why Welsh pounds?

[Prospero]

If a country becomes independent, setting up their own currency is an obvious next step.The question of the EU is something that hadn't crossed my mind. Don't ask me for any figures from opinion polls, but I get the impression that support for the EU is stronger in the other three countries than it is in England - the Scottish Nats support staying in the EU, for instance, whereas there's a fair amount of support for the idea of breaking away from the EU in England. It's possible that if the UK broke up completely, England could end up leaving the EU while Scotland, Wales and Ulster stay in. If that happened there could be major differences in economic policy between England and the other members of the former UK, with corresponding differences in the standard of living of the different populations.

[ninebucks]

The Welsh Nationalist movement has always been about cultural issues (preserving the language, traditions, silly hats, etc.), there has never really been a serious call for Welsh Independence.

Scotland would still rely on Great Britain (I can't imagine we'd change our name to the Kingdom of England just because Scotland leaves) for defence.

What we would see is a huge population drain from Scotland to England, as seeing as Scotland's economy is mostly based on a Keynesian model of excessive public sector employment (at London's expense), many Scottish civil servants, doctors, sanitation engineers, etc. will rush into England to keep their jobs, this would cause the system a lot of strain and perhaps even some Anglo-Scottish scuffles.

[tamrabam]

I'm Scottish, and I don't think there would be anything radically different. What I think would happen (or would have happened) are

1) Scotland would stay in the EU, the main reason to leave would be fisheries.

2) Scottish money would be tied to the English £ or would join the Euro (the Irish punt was = to 1£ until fairly recently - I think)

3) Depending on when independance came (regarding oil) and where the sectors in the N. Sea divided, could mean either a very rich Scotland (as Norway) or a reasonably poor one.

4) No nuclear weapons allowed.

5) Wouldn't have got involved in Iraq war, though I suspect peace keeping troops would have gone in afterwards. Not sure about Falklands War.

Interestingly I saw a news report a few weeks ago (I didn't read it, that said a majority in both Scotland and England were in favour of Scottish independance).

Indpendance was a possibility in the 70's as more people voted yes than no, but the daft system they had (40% of the electorate had to vote yes) meant that it came to nothing. Devolution could have lead to independance, as it could now.

To get radical changes you'd have to split earlier than 1970's.

I think WW1 stopped Scotland getting dominion status along with Ireland. No WW1 - a possible independant Scotland.

[Strategos' Risk]

Is Scotland really liberal or something? I've heard it. If so, then it's funny how the austere Calvinism of the place and the pious Catholicism of Quebec don't seem to show up in the politics.

[Darkling]

Don't ask me for any figures from opinion polls, but I get the impression that support for the EU is stronger in the other three countries than it is in England - the Scottish Nats support staying in the EU,


I have seen the opinion poll breakdown, Independence inside the EU has been static for the last decade (even declining) whilst independence of both the UK and EU has been growing, assuming independence does gain a majority the likely end result would be a Scotland outside of the UK and the EU (and a resulting catastrophe for the Scottish economy).

[Darkling]

3) Depending on when independance came (regarding oil) and where the sectors in the N. Sea divided, could mean either a very rich Scotland (as Norway) or a reasonably poor one.

Before the recent hike in oil prices GERS indicated that even with all the oil Scotland would still be worse off than it currently is.

The 2003-2004 GERS (the latest avaiable) shows that Sottish net borrowing even if they got the entire North Sea revenues would be 6.2% (compared to a UK whole of 3.7%) with North Sea total excluded this would be 12.9%.


Of course as I say oil has been on the rise since then.

Interestingly I saw a news report a few weeks ago (I didn't read it, that said a majority in both Scotland and England were in favour of Scottish independence).

http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/reviews/2006/Sunday%20Telegraph%20-%20Independence/ST-nov06-independence.asp

The poll seem to conflict somewhat with previous ones so I wouldn't be to sure about it.

Indpendance was a possibility in the 70's as more people voted yes than no, but the daft system they had (40% of the electorate had to vote yes) meant that it came to nothing. Devolution could have lead to independance, as it could now.

People voted for devolution in 1979 not independence.

I think WW1 stopped Scotland getting dominion status along with Ireland. No WW1 - a possible independant Scotland.

Ireland wasn't getting dominion status it was getting home rule similar to Scotland's devolved government (with additional taxing powers), whether Scotland would have also gotten Homerule is open to debate.

[Prospero]

Is Scotland really liberal or something?

Pretty much the opposite, unfortunately. The political parties with the most support tend to be socialist to one degree or another. I've no idea why. It's ironic considering Adam Smith was Scottish.

[Prospero]

I have seen the opinion poll breakdown, Independence inside the EU has been static for the last decade (even declining) whilst independence of both the UK and EU has been growing, assuming independence does gain a majority the likely end result would be a Scotland outside of the UK and the EU (and a resulting catastrophe for the Scottish economy).

Not necessarily a catastrophe, it would pretty much depend on what kind of policies the Scottish Parliament pursued. Leaving the EU would eliminate one source of taxation and regulation. If the government had the sense to take advantage of that opportunity by maintaining free trade with the EU and the rest of the former UK while creating a low tax, low regulation, business-friendly environment, the Scottish economy should be booming. On the other hand, if they go off on a binge of central planning, raising taxes, creating new regulations and putting up protectionist trade barriers then yes, there would be serious problems.

[Burton K Wheeler]

Pretty much the opposite, unfortunately. The political parties with the most support tend to be socialist to one degree or another. I've no idea why. It's ironic considering Adam Smith was Scottish.

He was using the American definition of 'liberal', which economically, is the opposite of the definition the rest of the world uses.

[Strategos' Risk]

Pretty much the opposite, unfortunately. The political parties with the most support tend to be socialist to one degree or another. I've no idea why. It's ironic considering Adam Smith was Scottish.

Wait, what? So they're Christian Socialists?

[Darkling]

Not necessarily a catastrophe, it would pretty much depend on what kind of policies the Scottish Parliament pursued. Leaving the EU would eliminate one source of taxation and regulation. If the government had the sense to take advantage of that opportunity by maintaining free trade with the EU and the rest of the former UK

The only way to maintain free trade with the EU is to pay for the privilege and take on those regulations anyway.

I was basing my thoughts off Scotland not joining the EU (or the EEA).

while creating a low tax, low regulation, business-friendly environment, the Scottish economy should be booming.

The problem here is that the Scottish economy would (at best) start off with deficit of 6% and likely higher (up to 12%) they couldn't afford to cut their taxes with such a huge budget deficit unless they also cut services which given Scotland's lefty leaning isn't going to happen.

They also needs to be consideration given to all the British government jobs locate din Scotland which would quickly be transferred south of the border to improvised areas still British, pushing up unemployment (thus expenses) and down tax receipts.

On the other hand, if they go off on a binge of central planning, raising taxes, creating new regulations and putting up protectionist trade barriers then yes, there would be serious problems.

That (which is probably quite likely) would just put then on a one way train to the same status as a former soviet bloc country instead of just being a poor country.

[Darkling]

Wait, what? So they're Christian Socialists?

Scotland's main political parties are as follows,

Labour - Social Democrat party,
Liberal Democrat - Social Democrat party,
Conservatives - Social democrat party (or at least pretending to be),
SNP - Nationalists with no clear focus beyond that,
Scottish Socialist Party - essentially communists who would change Scotland into the Peoples Republic of Scotland if they could,
Green Party - luddites who wish the steam engine hadn't been invented.

[Strategos' Risk]

Wait, but Prospero said that he wished they were liberals...

I guess it's the European paradigm of liberals as in the traditional economic sense of favoring laissez-faire economics, as opposed to social liberals.

[Tielhard]

There are at least four occasions when the political sentiments in Scotland were such that there was a chance of an independence movement being successful, appart from case b) I can't see a republic being a certainty.

a) Shortly after WWI
b) During the Red Clyde.
c) During the early Thatcher years
d) If devolution had been rejected by Parliament in a high handed way.

As an interesting aside. Could England/Wales be induced to give up Rockall and Hirta? If not the economic (oil) and strategic implications would be profound. How about Shetland and Orkney? I think the Shetlanders would be happy to go with the mainlanders I am less certain of what the Orcadians would do.