WI 1599 Mitsunari's assassins murders Tokugawa Ieyasu?

[HelloLegend]

In 1598, along with Tokugawa Ieyasu, Ishida Mitsunari was named one of the five San-Bugyo Regents who were responsible with maintaining the civil affairs of the realm until the 5 year old son (Toyotomi Hideyori) of the Taiko (Toyotomi Hideyoshi) became of age.

By 1600, Tokugawa Ieyasu defended Ishida Mitsunari's alliance at the Battle of Sekigahara. And then within three years, Tokugawa surrounded Osaka castle and eliminated the heir, even though he swore an oath to protect that child heir apparent twice in his life.

One year earlier, in 1599, Mitsunari's assassination attempt on Tokugawa almost ended everything right there and then...
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What if Ishida Mitsunari had successfully killed Tokugawa Ieyasu in his sleep in 1599? There would not even be a battle in the valley of Sekigahara, as Tokugawa's sons did not have the stature of his father to keep that loose alliance intact.
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Catholic Ishida Mitsunari had saved several Jesuits from death in two previous instances and be very unlikely to boot out all the Jesuits like Tokugawa's son did later on (after the Shogunate was firmly established) and retain only Dutch traders at Nagasaki. More than once, Ishida's men used portuguese made early rifles to win battles as well.

What happens after 1600 in Japan under a Ishida dominated regency of the Taiko's child? Does Japan have more contact with the West in the next century?

[Smaug]

Nice. Please do run with this, I'd like to see Japan shaken up a bit. Not turned into a European puppet, but a little bit less Xenophobic:)

[HelloLegend]

This was actually meant to be a discussion, not a timeline, you are free to "run" a timeline on this if u want. :)

[Smaug]

I tried a different twist, it didn't get very far (Early Japan). Still its nice to see interest in seldom seen topics and cultures. :)

[NapoleonXIV]

I've researched an idea of a Japanese dynasty in China. It could start with a more successful Korean invasion, or possibly come in with the Japanese supporting one of the rebels in the Revolt of the Three Feudatories in the Early Qing.

The problem with the first is that the Ming were still strong enough in 1598 to repel it rather handily in OTL, so the only way to make it work is to give the Japanese practically ASB levels of military acumen, luck or both. The problem with the second is that the revolt was the consolidating event of the Qing and left them among the most powerful empires in the world.

If you try to insert the Japanese in at the fall of the Ming, you run into the problem that Japan was still consolidating itself at this time. Still, I think that here is your best opportunity if Japan does not isolate itself. They could establish themselves as a main rival to the Qing. A main problem with the Japanese/Qing China, however, is also geographic, the best communication of China and Japan is through Korea and right here is the Qing heartland. Still, Japanese pirates harried the entire Chinese coast in the Kamakura period.

Another main problem I find, (besides not knowing enough detail about the history of the two nations at the time) is what happens afterward. One way or another, the consequences are not all that good for Japan, which pretty much ends up sharing in China's vivisection at the hands of Europe in the 19thc unless you alter the history so radically that neither Japanese nor Chinese culture is really recognisable as such by 1800, and/or employ events that are wildly implausible.

The main problem there seems to be that Japan's rapid adaptation to the European challenge in the 19thc seems very much a product of her isolation. Without it, Japan becomes pretty much an offshore province of China, in one sense or another, and shares in China's resistance to modernisation and eventual downfall

[Max Sinister]

I know Japan conquering China happens in many TLs, but IMO it only makes sense if the Japanese have a strong technological advance AND a fanatical government AND China's in bad state. As happened in WW2, and even then the Japanese didn't conquer all of China. If only one of those three isn't given, there's no chance in succeeding. There's not even a chance starting it.

[Tocomocho]

What happens after 1600 in Japan under a Ishida dominated regency of the Taiko's child? Does Japan have more contact with the West in the next century?

Very likely. IOTL the christian samurai Hasekura Tsunenaga (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hasekura_Tsunenaga) travelled to Spain in 1614 and offered a commercial agreement to Philip III. However, the king refused to sign anything while catholics were persecuted in Japan. The shogun Tokugawa Hideata finally broken diplomatic relations with Spain 10 years later.

If this event isn't butterflied is obvious that the Spanish king would be very happy to sign a treaty with a catholic shogun. A continuous merchant route between Japan and Mexico would be created then, as Hasekura wanted.

[NapoleonXIV]

I know Japan conquering China happens in many TLs, but IMO it only makes sense if the Japanese have a strong technological advance AND a fanatical government AND China's in bad state. As happened in WW2, and even then the Japanese didn't conquer all of China. If only one of those three isn't given, there's no chance in succeeding. There's not even a chance starting it.

In 1600-1650 the Japanese Samurai were a fighting force unique in the world, a highly developed warrior culture having been honed by several hundred years of recent, nearly nonstop fratricidal wars and organized at the end of that period by a series of military geniuses, who also knew and used the latest European tactics and weaponry

At the same time this government was also fairly fanatical, (one has to be to eventually isolate the country for 250 years.)

The Ming was in fairly precipitous decline from about 1600 on, they would lose China to the Qing in 1644.

So I think this period satisfies all 3 of your prerequisites. They would not be able to defeat the Qing, true, but they might very well be able to fight them to a stalemate, possibly creating a two Chinas scenario.

[Iñaki]

I think you will find interesting this web:)
http://www.samurai-archives.com/index.html