Yuan Shikai stops the 1898 coup in China

[Tocomocho]

The reforms, however, were not only too sudden for a China still under significant neo-Confucian influence and other elements of traditional culture, but also came into conflict with Cixi, who held real power. Many officials, deemed useless and dismissed by Guangxu, were begging Cixi for help. Although Cixi did nothing to stop the Hundred Day's Reform from taking place, she knew the only way to secure her power base was to stage a military coup. Guangxu was made aware of such a plan, and asked Kang Youwei and his reformist allies to think of a way to rescue him. They decided to use the help of Yuan Shikai (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuan_Shikai), who had a very modernized army, albeit only 6,000-strong. Cixi relied on Ronglu (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronglu)'s army in Tianjin.


Yuan Shikai, however, was beginning to show his skill in politics. The day before the staged coup was supposed to take place, Yuan chose his best political route and revealed all the plans to Ronglu, exposing the Emperor's plans. This undoubtedly raised Cixi's trust in Yuan, who thereby became a lifetime enemy of Guangxu. In September 1898, Ronglu's troops took all positions surrounding the Forbidden City, and surrounded the Emperor when he was about to perform rituals. Guangxu was then taken to Ocean Terrace, a small palace on an island in the middle of a lake linked to the rest of the Forbidden City with only a controlled causeway. Cixi would follow with an edict dictating Guangxu's total disgrace and "not being fit to be Emperor". Guangxu's reign had effectively come to an end.



Wikipedia



So, WI Yuan Shikai sides with the Emperor and surprises both Ronglu and Cixi attacking their forces before they could be prepared? Can the Boxer Rebellion be avoided? Has the 100 Days Reform a chance to success or it's doomed from beginning?

I know that Yuan Shikai's army looks quite small... How much modern weapons had it?

[Hendryk]

So, WI Yuan Shikai sides with the Emperor and surprises both Ronglu and Cixi attacking their forces before they could be prepared? Can the Boxer Rebellion be avoided? Has the 100 Days Reform a chance to success or it's doomed from beginning?
You may not be surprised to learn that this was one of the PODs I considered for my "Superpower Empire" TL. Indeed, I believe it is entirely plausible that Yuan could have remained on the reformers' side--all it would have taken was the promise of a better deal than the one Cixi could come up with. After all, Guangxu was the legitimate Emperor, and could grant sizeable perks.

The big question is whether it would have saved the Qing dynasty, and the short answer is: I don't know. But it would probably have saved the Imperial system itself. My personal theory is that the system remained salvageable until 1912, at the cost, of course, of drastic structural reforms; beyond that it was too discredited.

The reform movement did have a sizeable support base among China's modern elites, and with the continuing endorsement of the Imperial court, would probably have gathered enough critical mass to overcome the resistance of conservative elements. Conversely, without encouragement from the top, the Fists of Harmony would have remained a minor nuisance at best. Another critical factor is the attitude of the various powers encroaching on China at the time; they may support modernization as it would provide greater opportunities for investment, or may cynically consider that China shouldn't be allowed to modernize too successfully, lest it become more difficult to satellize. Japan in particular may be wary of its large neighbor pulling off a Meiji analogue, though the Western powers may see a chance to play both Asian countries against one another. Should the reform movement be allowed to proceed unimpeded to 1914, the beginning of WW1 will likely incite Germany on one hand, and France and Britain on the other, to offer various deals in order to have China on their side.

[Wendell]

What a way to blow apart the Second World War...