Straha
August 8th, 2004, 12:59 AM
Germans do not launch Battle of Bulge. What happens?
Depends on whether the Bulge forces are allowed to be used as a defensive
reserve for the Western front or sent East.
1. If used as a defensive reserve, Ike's attacks into January basically get nowhere. Stalin's Vistula offensive goes as OTL. The Bulge Reserve is sent to hold the Oder and Pommerania in late Jan - Feb of 45. Ike gets across the Rhine later (say 6 weeks) than OTL. Stalin needs an extra 8 weeks to clear Pommerania and an extra 4 weeks to take Berlin. Essentially the same occupation zones only the Germans surrender on 8/8/45 instead of 5/8/45.
2. The Bulge Reserve is sent East - one army to shore up the Vistula (say V Panzer Army) and two armies to relieve Budapest (say VI Panzer Army and 7th Army). Patton clears the Saar and Palatinate in December of 44. This lets Hodges First Army clear the Cologne Plain which in turn leads the Germans to withdraw from the Roer dams and the hurtgen forrest in January. Patton gets a large transRhine bridgehead in the same month ( but no Remagen bridge). February sees Patton expand slowly out of his bridgehead to outer south edges of Ruhr. Patton's south flank frees up Devers Sixth Army Group which eliminates the Colmar pocket and closes to Rhine ( no bridgeheads here but French are given Rhine line while Patch's 7th US Army is brought into Patton's bridgehead). Most of First Army brought across also, leaving long, shallow 3 army disposition on east bank of Rhine by end of month. With Roer gone, US 9th closes up to Rhine. US 15th brought into line opposite Ruhr as economy of force measure. March sees US 9th and British Second armies break across Rhine while Canadian First Army seals off Holland. Massive American breakout isolates Ruhr and takes all of central German against scattered opposition. April: Historic Italian offensive opens - basically German ooposition collapses. Duplicate historic sweep across north Germany and south Germany. In center across Elbe to threaten Berlin, up to Sudeten mountains, and all of Saxony. First link with Russians is May1 on Silesian - Saxon border
East: December sees relief of Budapest but no giant German breakthrough.
However, Russians reserves are ground down in very uneven attrition. January : Vistula breakout is not the rout in OTL. Vth provides nucleus of fallback to old German border. In Hungary, Germans hold the ruins of Budapest but start to thin their front as major panzer formations sent northards to defend Silesia and Pommerania. February: Germans clearly on
defensive and slowly retreating in Hungary. Pommerania squeezed out and
Russians reach the baltic but with far higher casualties than in OTL. March: East Prussia eliminates. Russian offensive in OTL down spine of Carpathians to bleed Rumanian amry not made. Instead Slovak salient pinched out from top and bottom. Germans lose last Hungarian oil field and retire to Austria border. However, they retire as intact and formidable Army Group unlike OTL. April: instead of attacking Berlin as in OTL, Stalin must spend the Red Army to take Silesia. Reach Ruhr line by end of month, again with heavier casualties.
So by May 1: the German position in the West is slightly worse, in the Alps towards Italy is about the same, and in the East is somewhat better ( still holding all of Berlin, all of Moravia, all of Austria, all of Crooatia/Slovenia and much of Hertzgovina. The West will actually help take Berlin or stand aside and truely watch the Germans bleed the Russians to death. In either case a weaker Russia will emerge. The bar on a seperate RussoGerman peace remains Adolph.
a possibly future result of this could be a coup attempt somehow...
The generals couldn't have gotten near him. Lets presume a coup by the only group with a chance - some combination of Himmler, Muller(Gestapo Chief) and Borman. As the latter two are still rumored to be Red Spies, and the former was by this stage a total opportunist only interested in saving his neck, this is unlikely but less impossible combination. Stranger things happened in 32-33. Basically the triumverate plus the SS apparat, the radical wing of the party and the more social authoritarian group of the old army (the ones like Stauffenberg who were called Red Prussians) immediately communicate to Stalin the choice he has long dreaded - either a seperate peace or they will throw open the Western Front (which in this scenario it already looks like they are doing) as part of a plot with the Western Plutocracies for a combined attack on a Red Russia that in this scenario is far more burned out than in OTL. Peace is made with Moscow immediately - say 5/10/45. The Brits fall in after a week of titanic German counterattacks retake the north German plain and most of Saxony - say 5/17/45. It takes the Americans a final week to acknowledge the inevitable - make it Memorial day weekend 5/30/45.
Russia takes Scandinavia including Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway - those
Aryans who do not wish to live under the Red banner are relocated to Germany. Courland is evacuated by the Germans long with as many Balts as
want to leave. The Croat puppet state, Czech protectorate and Italian Social
Republic (the remnant still in the Alps) are formally made part of the Reich. Hungarians, western fascists (including Iberians who do not wish to live under a proWestern authoritarian state), Ukranians are relocated to the Reich. Czechs, western Reds, and Slavic refugees in the Reich go east. Poles and democrats from the east go West. Europe makes the peoples fit the borders. (note - many Germans defect West rather than become brothers with the Russians). Germany is linked to the USSR by mamouth reparations, giant tech transfer, a formal alliance, a Red garrison - lets say the historic 30 divisions in Germany proper plus 9 in Bohemia and 9 more in Austria.
Japan joins the alliance - say 6/20/45, accepting Russian codominium on the mainland in return for a RussoGerman protectorate over the Home Islands. Another three month of fighting and the nuclear destruction of Tokyo, Osaka
and Yawada are reuired to bring this to a conclusion - say 10/1/45. China partitioned at the Yangtse and massive population relocations of Japanese troops, nationalist civilians and local Communists. Tens of millions from India relocated into USSR and North China joint territories. Many Chinese move in both directions.
the big changes:
1. A truely bipolar world - no neutrals
2. Europe minus its Communists stays conventionally armed and thus not at
risk
3. IntraEuropean border is one giant Berlin Wall - Maginot type fortifications from the North Sea to the Adriatic and across the top of partitioned Greece and Turkish Thrace.
4. Russian economy gets giant boost from willing German and Japanese partners
5. World economy gets giant boost from a truely imperial USA 6. No freedom of expression anywhere - the Block is deep is Stalinist paranoia into the 70's - US devolves back to mere McCarthyism by then. Each side is facing a real Evil Empire and knows it.
7. Cold War is colder but much less dangerous. Essentially the borders are all drawn by early 1946. No Red threat to move West or Western threat to rollback the Red gains. Decolonization will happen much later and on the French neocolonial model. The entire 'West' will stand behind surpression of any attempt at a neutralist 3rd world government - 'those who aren't with
us are against us '
8. Tech progress much faster in the East as they get all the Germans - we are playing catchup but play for real. First space sattelites by East in 47, West in 48. First space stations 51 and 52.
9. No Israel. No truely independent India - its a commonwealth confederation of states - no wars in Vietnam, Malaya, Indonesia or Algeria - in each case massive mutimillion man armies descend and kill or deport the problems.
10. GDP / person is 50% higher in east, 10% higher worldwide, maybe 20%
higher here BUT civilian standard of living is 60's level as far more is taken up by military-technoindustrial sector and far less by transfer payments, ecology, social services
Depends on whether the Bulge forces are allowed to be used as a defensive
reserve for the Western front or sent East.
1. If used as a defensive reserve, Ike's attacks into January basically get nowhere. Stalin's Vistula offensive goes as OTL. The Bulge Reserve is sent to hold the Oder and Pommerania in late Jan - Feb of 45. Ike gets across the Rhine later (say 6 weeks) than OTL. Stalin needs an extra 8 weeks to clear Pommerania and an extra 4 weeks to take Berlin. Essentially the same occupation zones only the Germans surrender on 8/8/45 instead of 5/8/45.
2. The Bulge Reserve is sent East - one army to shore up the Vistula (say V Panzer Army) and two armies to relieve Budapest (say VI Panzer Army and 7th Army). Patton clears the Saar and Palatinate in December of 44. This lets Hodges First Army clear the Cologne Plain which in turn leads the Germans to withdraw from the Roer dams and the hurtgen forrest in January. Patton gets a large transRhine bridgehead in the same month ( but no Remagen bridge). February sees Patton expand slowly out of his bridgehead to outer south edges of Ruhr. Patton's south flank frees up Devers Sixth Army Group which eliminates the Colmar pocket and closes to Rhine ( no bridgeheads here but French are given Rhine line while Patch's 7th US Army is brought into Patton's bridgehead). Most of First Army brought across also, leaving long, shallow 3 army disposition on east bank of Rhine by end of month. With Roer gone, US 9th closes up to Rhine. US 15th brought into line opposite Ruhr as economy of force measure. March sees US 9th and British Second armies break across Rhine while Canadian First Army seals off Holland. Massive American breakout isolates Ruhr and takes all of central German against scattered opposition. April: Historic Italian offensive opens - basically German ooposition collapses. Duplicate historic sweep across north Germany and south Germany. In center across Elbe to threaten Berlin, up to Sudeten mountains, and all of Saxony. First link with Russians is May1 on Silesian - Saxon border
East: December sees relief of Budapest but no giant German breakthrough.
However, Russians reserves are ground down in very uneven attrition. January : Vistula breakout is not the rout in OTL. Vth provides nucleus of fallback to old German border. In Hungary, Germans hold the ruins of Budapest but start to thin their front as major panzer formations sent northards to defend Silesia and Pommerania. February: Germans clearly on
defensive and slowly retreating in Hungary. Pommerania squeezed out and
Russians reach the baltic but with far higher casualties than in OTL. March: East Prussia eliminates. Russian offensive in OTL down spine of Carpathians to bleed Rumanian amry not made. Instead Slovak salient pinched out from top and bottom. Germans lose last Hungarian oil field and retire to Austria border. However, they retire as intact and formidable Army Group unlike OTL. April: instead of attacking Berlin as in OTL, Stalin must spend the Red Army to take Silesia. Reach Ruhr line by end of month, again with heavier casualties.
So by May 1: the German position in the West is slightly worse, in the Alps towards Italy is about the same, and in the East is somewhat better ( still holding all of Berlin, all of Moravia, all of Austria, all of Crooatia/Slovenia and much of Hertzgovina. The West will actually help take Berlin or stand aside and truely watch the Germans bleed the Russians to death. In either case a weaker Russia will emerge. The bar on a seperate RussoGerman peace remains Adolph.
a possibly future result of this could be a coup attempt somehow...
The generals couldn't have gotten near him. Lets presume a coup by the only group with a chance - some combination of Himmler, Muller(Gestapo Chief) and Borman. As the latter two are still rumored to be Red Spies, and the former was by this stage a total opportunist only interested in saving his neck, this is unlikely but less impossible combination. Stranger things happened in 32-33. Basically the triumverate plus the SS apparat, the radical wing of the party and the more social authoritarian group of the old army (the ones like Stauffenberg who were called Red Prussians) immediately communicate to Stalin the choice he has long dreaded - either a seperate peace or they will throw open the Western Front (which in this scenario it already looks like they are doing) as part of a plot with the Western Plutocracies for a combined attack on a Red Russia that in this scenario is far more burned out than in OTL. Peace is made with Moscow immediately - say 5/10/45. The Brits fall in after a week of titanic German counterattacks retake the north German plain and most of Saxony - say 5/17/45. It takes the Americans a final week to acknowledge the inevitable - make it Memorial day weekend 5/30/45.
Russia takes Scandinavia including Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway - those
Aryans who do not wish to live under the Red banner are relocated to Germany. Courland is evacuated by the Germans long with as many Balts as
want to leave. The Croat puppet state, Czech protectorate and Italian Social
Republic (the remnant still in the Alps) are formally made part of the Reich. Hungarians, western fascists (including Iberians who do not wish to live under a proWestern authoritarian state), Ukranians are relocated to the Reich. Czechs, western Reds, and Slavic refugees in the Reich go east. Poles and democrats from the east go West. Europe makes the peoples fit the borders. (note - many Germans defect West rather than become brothers with the Russians). Germany is linked to the USSR by mamouth reparations, giant tech transfer, a formal alliance, a Red garrison - lets say the historic 30 divisions in Germany proper plus 9 in Bohemia and 9 more in Austria.
Japan joins the alliance - say 6/20/45, accepting Russian codominium on the mainland in return for a RussoGerman protectorate over the Home Islands. Another three month of fighting and the nuclear destruction of Tokyo, Osaka
and Yawada are reuired to bring this to a conclusion - say 10/1/45. China partitioned at the Yangtse and massive population relocations of Japanese troops, nationalist civilians and local Communists. Tens of millions from India relocated into USSR and North China joint territories. Many Chinese move in both directions.
the big changes:
1. A truely bipolar world - no neutrals
2. Europe minus its Communists stays conventionally armed and thus not at
risk
3. IntraEuropean border is one giant Berlin Wall - Maginot type fortifications from the North Sea to the Adriatic and across the top of partitioned Greece and Turkish Thrace.
4. Russian economy gets giant boost from willing German and Japanese partners
5. World economy gets giant boost from a truely imperial USA 6. No freedom of expression anywhere - the Block is deep is Stalinist paranoia into the 70's - US devolves back to mere McCarthyism by then. Each side is facing a real Evil Empire and knows it.
7. Cold War is colder but much less dangerous. Essentially the borders are all drawn by early 1946. No Red threat to move West or Western threat to rollback the Red gains. Decolonization will happen much later and on the French neocolonial model. The entire 'West' will stand behind surpression of any attempt at a neutralist 3rd world government - 'those who aren't with
us are against us '
8. Tech progress much faster in the East as they get all the Germans - we are playing catchup but play for real. First space sattelites by East in 47, West in 48. First space stations 51 and 52.
9. No Israel. No truely independent India - its a commonwealth confederation of states - no wars in Vietnam, Malaya, Indonesia or Algeria - in each case massive mutimillion man armies descend and kill or deport the problems.
10. GDP / person is 50% higher in east, 10% higher worldwide, maybe 20%
higher here BUT civilian standard of living is 60's level as far more is taken up by military-technoindustrial sector and far less by transfer payments, ecology, social services