Chris
January 20th, 2004, 05:11 PM
I promised Scott a polish victory scenario, well, this may not be the best outcome, but it’s the best I can do. This is the best-case outcome for Poland in the Second World War, but I’ve tried to change as little as possible. There is another Polish Victory AH, but that makes too many changes for me to be completely comfortable with it. First, I’m going to sum up Poland’s position as I see it:
Poland is trapped between two powerful and implacable foes
Poland’s is dependent upon the part of its land that Hitler wants for its economy. If it gives that up without a fight, Poland will become an effective satellite of Germany.
The Poles strongly believe that Blitzkrieg is unworkable. The Spanish Civil War did not see a successful one, but a string of failures.
It is extremely unlikely that France will be able to help out for at least a week and perhaps more, ditto Britain. French promised a major offensive on day 15. Their mobilization system was designed to be extra slow for some silly reason.
The Poles also had two other problems that limited them. The first was that Poland’s first demise had happened because of other powers taking little pieces of Poland and them promising, not unlike Hitler after Munich, not to take any more. The second was that if the Poles did manage to stop Hitler’s forces, the Soviets could roll in from the east and overwhelm what was left.
Therefore, the Polish war-plans called for a mobilisation and deployment along the borders in hopes of stopping an offensive. The Poles, who had secret contacts with Japan, had a slightly exaggerated view of the power of the Soviet armed forces and no understanding of the disparity between them and Germany. This gap in power was unapparent until fairly recently. However, the Poles made two fatal mistakes; one was to place their forces forward, (which allowed the Germans to break through and encircle them) and the second was to trust in the western powers, France and Britain, who were effectively bluffing. They, mainly Britain, talked the poles into not mobilising until it was too late. The Poles had to mobilise while fighting the war.
Numbers were, however, not as bad as many people think. A German armoured division (of which they had seven) had 400 tanks, including 48 heavy and 84 medium ones. There were also four light divisions (200 tanks and dozens of armoured vehicles). These and the four motorized divisions carried soldiers in lorries right to the very front line. Independent tank and armoured carrier units accompanied infantry divisions. Altogether the Germans used against Poland about 3000 tanks, with 5000 guns and 3000 aircraft in support. The Poles opposed them with about 900 tanks and armoured cars, 2000 guns and about 400 aircraft, mostly obsolete ones, with no reserves. However, the Polish Air Force was not wiped out on the first day, but continued to fly until it ran out of supplies.
Therefore, we need a creditable POD that won’t change WW2 too much. The best chance that Poland has is that of standing with Czechoslovakia in 1938, instead of taking some of their land and trying to stay out of the fighting. Let’s assume that they draw the correct conclusion from Hitler’s occupation of the Czechoslovakian rump state in May 1939. Germany occupied what was left of Czechoslovakia too fast for anyone to do anything about it. The action gave Germany a big increase in its military strength: a third of the tanks that attacked France in 1940 were made in Czechoslovakia (before or after the conquest). But it cost a lot diplomatically: this is arguably the first time Germany did something for which it had no real excuse, and it made it clear that Hitler could not be trusted. Let’s say that the Poles assume that, no matter what they do, they’ll be chopped up by Hitler regardless.
Therefore, they can do a few things. They can kick up their plans to mobilise and even hold a few practice sessions. Furthermore, they’ll need to plan on the assumption that there will be no help coming from France – or whatever help will arrive too late. Now, everyone believed that a few weeks of war and the Germany economy would collapse. In hindsight, that appears ridiculous, but there were a few points. If the Germans became bogged down in Poland, Hitler’s power would begin to crumble and the Germans might well run out of ammunition. They burnt several months stock in the OTL campaign and they had to spend a few months rebuilding those stocks.
As 1939 slips by, the Poles (as in OTL) become aware of the German build-up along the borders. They have been cracking German codes and know that Hitler plans to attack. They continue their own stockpiling and prepare for the invasion. Instead of meeting the Germans along the borders, they’ll leave token forces there and dig in near Wassaw. This offers them the main chance of holding the Germans. However, as offensive operations are necessary to improve morale, the Poles decide to take the war to East Prussia, see map (http://history.acusd.edu/cdr2/WW2Pics2/81835.jpg).
Now, on 26th August 1939, Hitler planned to launch the invasion. However, news of yet another hypocritical pact being signed between Britain and Poland gave even him pause. The order to cancel operations did not quite reach every unit and there were a number of minor skirmishes. Lets assume that the Poles realise that Hitler plans to hit them in the very-near-future and begin a full mobilisation. In OTL, Britain and France convinced them to hold off until it was too late, here, the Poles mobilise anyway. Hitler orders the attack to be launched on the same date as OTL, 1st September.
The Germans attacked without tactical surprise, which pretty much happened in OTL, as the Poles had a fair idea of when they were coming. However, the Poles have withdrawn into defensible position, rather than strung out along the border, and the first German rush finds only small partisan units and destroyed bridges, blocked roads and other nasty tricks. The Germans have not, mainly found large polish units to attack. The one difference is in East Prussia, when the advancing German forces bumped into a strong polish force and were defeated.
(AN: In OTL, Germans had a 2:1 advantage in most categories. ATL: Poles have more forces in the area.)
The Poles and the Germans fight a series of small battles across the border between Poland and East Prussia. This convinces Hitler that the Poles are able to take East Prussia (debatable). He therefore places more emprises on the ‘Polish Corridor’ and orders the German army to concentrate on seizing that territory, with the effect that fighting elsewhere is reduced. This gives the poles valuable breathing space.
Sadly (well, maybe) for the Poles, Britain and France have taken the Polish early mobilisation as a fig leaf to do what they want to do anyway: abandon Poland. While both sides promise support, they send no real support beyond pious declarations. Incidentally, the Poles in the US press for US aid to Poland and the US sends some supplies while the ports are open. This development worries Stalin. Depending upon who you believe, Stalin made the agreement to divide Poland in the hope that Hitler would then turn his attention towards France, which gave him time to prepare for attacking Germany or defending Russia, depending upon whom you talk to. He therefore begins to re-evaluate his stance towards Poland and starts sending supplies to the Poles.
By seventh September, the situation is as follows:
East Prussia: The Poles have managed to take a chunk of East Prussia, although their hold is tenuous, and the Germans have been having local successes to push the Poles back.
Polish Corridor: The Germans have finally (!) managed to blitz their way through the corridor. They are now attempting to ship supplies through the corridor to relieve East Prussia. Polish Calvary is making that difficult.
Army Group South: The German first attack nearly closed on thin air. The Poles have retreated in good order to the river, although hampered by refugees, and are preparing a stand along the Vistula and in Warsaw, the government having retreated to Brzec. Local military command, however, remains in Warsaw.
Air: The Polish Air force has been dispersed and is holding its own from bases in the Russian section of Poland.
Supply: The Soviet supplies have eased what was a growing ammunition shortage on the part of the Poles, while the Germans have burnt about a quarter of their ammunition and are running out of spare parts.
12th September sees the Germans having secured the Polish Corridor and chased the poles back out of East Prussia, although at high cost. The Poles have also severely damaged the Germans military confidence, even through the Germans are winning, the fighting is too much like World War One’s for any confidence. Hitler decides on what is intended to be the final stoke to end the war; a full-scale attack on Warsaw.
17th September sees the Germans send the remainder of their professional forces on a Stalingrad-style attack on Warsaw, with massed air and artillitay support. The battle rages on for a week before the German army realises that they have “put their dicks in the sausage machine” (HT, Through the Darkness). As the whether worsens, the Polish Calvary is able to cut German supply lines and cripple the German forces.
As Hitler is unwilling to recognise what is effectively defeat, the German army launches a military coup, sweeping away much of the nazi party, although they have Goring as nominal Chancellor.
The Germans begin peace talks with the Poles in November. The Poles are also desperate for peace, as the soviet supplies are starting to come with a political price tag attached. The Germans get to keep the Corridor, although they have to allow the Poles free access and they have to sell Poland military equipment at cheap rates. Poland makes guarantees of limited supplies to the Germans.
The absence of the need to build up in Europe allows Stalin a chance to settle the Japanese once and for all. The soviet army builds up in Manchuria and attacks the Japanese, leading to a full-scale war between the two powers. By 1940, the Russians have taken most of the Japanese territory in Asia and Japan is forced to sue for peace.
World War Two is over.
Poland is trapped between two powerful and implacable foes
Poland’s is dependent upon the part of its land that Hitler wants for its economy. If it gives that up without a fight, Poland will become an effective satellite of Germany.
The Poles strongly believe that Blitzkrieg is unworkable. The Spanish Civil War did not see a successful one, but a string of failures.
It is extremely unlikely that France will be able to help out for at least a week and perhaps more, ditto Britain. French promised a major offensive on day 15. Their mobilization system was designed to be extra slow for some silly reason.
The Poles also had two other problems that limited them. The first was that Poland’s first demise had happened because of other powers taking little pieces of Poland and them promising, not unlike Hitler after Munich, not to take any more. The second was that if the Poles did manage to stop Hitler’s forces, the Soviets could roll in from the east and overwhelm what was left.
Therefore, the Polish war-plans called for a mobilisation and deployment along the borders in hopes of stopping an offensive. The Poles, who had secret contacts with Japan, had a slightly exaggerated view of the power of the Soviet armed forces and no understanding of the disparity between them and Germany. This gap in power was unapparent until fairly recently. However, the Poles made two fatal mistakes; one was to place their forces forward, (which allowed the Germans to break through and encircle them) and the second was to trust in the western powers, France and Britain, who were effectively bluffing. They, mainly Britain, talked the poles into not mobilising until it was too late. The Poles had to mobilise while fighting the war.
Numbers were, however, not as bad as many people think. A German armoured division (of which they had seven) had 400 tanks, including 48 heavy and 84 medium ones. There were also four light divisions (200 tanks and dozens of armoured vehicles). These and the four motorized divisions carried soldiers in lorries right to the very front line. Independent tank and armoured carrier units accompanied infantry divisions. Altogether the Germans used against Poland about 3000 tanks, with 5000 guns and 3000 aircraft in support. The Poles opposed them with about 900 tanks and armoured cars, 2000 guns and about 400 aircraft, mostly obsolete ones, with no reserves. However, the Polish Air Force was not wiped out on the first day, but continued to fly until it ran out of supplies.
Therefore, we need a creditable POD that won’t change WW2 too much. The best chance that Poland has is that of standing with Czechoslovakia in 1938, instead of taking some of their land and trying to stay out of the fighting. Let’s assume that they draw the correct conclusion from Hitler’s occupation of the Czechoslovakian rump state in May 1939. Germany occupied what was left of Czechoslovakia too fast for anyone to do anything about it. The action gave Germany a big increase in its military strength: a third of the tanks that attacked France in 1940 were made in Czechoslovakia (before or after the conquest). But it cost a lot diplomatically: this is arguably the first time Germany did something for which it had no real excuse, and it made it clear that Hitler could not be trusted. Let’s say that the Poles assume that, no matter what they do, they’ll be chopped up by Hitler regardless.
Therefore, they can do a few things. They can kick up their plans to mobilise and even hold a few practice sessions. Furthermore, they’ll need to plan on the assumption that there will be no help coming from France – or whatever help will arrive too late. Now, everyone believed that a few weeks of war and the Germany economy would collapse. In hindsight, that appears ridiculous, but there were a few points. If the Germans became bogged down in Poland, Hitler’s power would begin to crumble and the Germans might well run out of ammunition. They burnt several months stock in the OTL campaign and they had to spend a few months rebuilding those stocks.
As 1939 slips by, the Poles (as in OTL) become aware of the German build-up along the borders. They have been cracking German codes and know that Hitler plans to attack. They continue their own stockpiling and prepare for the invasion. Instead of meeting the Germans along the borders, they’ll leave token forces there and dig in near Wassaw. This offers them the main chance of holding the Germans. However, as offensive operations are necessary to improve morale, the Poles decide to take the war to East Prussia, see map (http://history.acusd.edu/cdr2/WW2Pics2/81835.jpg).
Now, on 26th August 1939, Hitler planned to launch the invasion. However, news of yet another hypocritical pact being signed between Britain and Poland gave even him pause. The order to cancel operations did not quite reach every unit and there were a number of minor skirmishes. Lets assume that the Poles realise that Hitler plans to hit them in the very-near-future and begin a full mobilisation. In OTL, Britain and France convinced them to hold off until it was too late, here, the Poles mobilise anyway. Hitler orders the attack to be launched on the same date as OTL, 1st September.
The Germans attacked without tactical surprise, which pretty much happened in OTL, as the Poles had a fair idea of when they were coming. However, the Poles have withdrawn into defensible position, rather than strung out along the border, and the first German rush finds only small partisan units and destroyed bridges, blocked roads and other nasty tricks. The Germans have not, mainly found large polish units to attack. The one difference is in East Prussia, when the advancing German forces bumped into a strong polish force and were defeated.
(AN: In OTL, Germans had a 2:1 advantage in most categories. ATL: Poles have more forces in the area.)
The Poles and the Germans fight a series of small battles across the border between Poland and East Prussia. This convinces Hitler that the Poles are able to take East Prussia (debatable). He therefore places more emprises on the ‘Polish Corridor’ and orders the German army to concentrate on seizing that territory, with the effect that fighting elsewhere is reduced. This gives the poles valuable breathing space.
Sadly (well, maybe) for the Poles, Britain and France have taken the Polish early mobilisation as a fig leaf to do what they want to do anyway: abandon Poland. While both sides promise support, they send no real support beyond pious declarations. Incidentally, the Poles in the US press for US aid to Poland and the US sends some supplies while the ports are open. This development worries Stalin. Depending upon who you believe, Stalin made the agreement to divide Poland in the hope that Hitler would then turn his attention towards France, which gave him time to prepare for attacking Germany or defending Russia, depending upon whom you talk to. He therefore begins to re-evaluate his stance towards Poland and starts sending supplies to the Poles.
By seventh September, the situation is as follows:
East Prussia: The Poles have managed to take a chunk of East Prussia, although their hold is tenuous, and the Germans have been having local successes to push the Poles back.
Polish Corridor: The Germans have finally (!) managed to blitz their way through the corridor. They are now attempting to ship supplies through the corridor to relieve East Prussia. Polish Calvary is making that difficult.
Army Group South: The German first attack nearly closed on thin air. The Poles have retreated in good order to the river, although hampered by refugees, and are preparing a stand along the Vistula and in Warsaw, the government having retreated to Brzec. Local military command, however, remains in Warsaw.
Air: The Polish Air force has been dispersed and is holding its own from bases in the Russian section of Poland.
Supply: The Soviet supplies have eased what was a growing ammunition shortage on the part of the Poles, while the Germans have burnt about a quarter of their ammunition and are running out of spare parts.
12th September sees the Germans having secured the Polish Corridor and chased the poles back out of East Prussia, although at high cost. The Poles have also severely damaged the Germans military confidence, even through the Germans are winning, the fighting is too much like World War One’s for any confidence. Hitler decides on what is intended to be the final stoke to end the war; a full-scale attack on Warsaw.
17th September sees the Germans send the remainder of their professional forces on a Stalingrad-style attack on Warsaw, with massed air and artillitay support. The battle rages on for a week before the German army realises that they have “put their dicks in the sausage machine” (HT, Through the Darkness). As the whether worsens, the Polish Calvary is able to cut German supply lines and cripple the German forces.
As Hitler is unwilling to recognise what is effectively defeat, the German army launches a military coup, sweeping away much of the nazi party, although they have Goring as nominal Chancellor.
The Germans begin peace talks with the Poles in November. The Poles are also desperate for peace, as the soviet supplies are starting to come with a political price tag attached. The Germans get to keep the Corridor, although they have to allow the Poles free access and they have to sell Poland military equipment at cheap rates. Poland makes guarantees of limited supplies to the Germans.
The absence of the need to build up in Europe allows Stalin a chance to settle the Japanese once and for all. The soviet army builds up in Manchuria and attacks the Japanese, leading to a full-scale war between the two powers. By 1940, the Russians have taken most of the Japanese territory in Asia and Japan is forced to sue for peace.
World War Two is over.