Japan turns left in Taisho

[NapoleonXIV]

WI Japan, in the late 20's, had somehow decided to become Socialist/Communist, maintaining their full sovereignity and culture but allying themselves with Stalin's Russia in the late 1930's instead of Hitler.

Assume this happens, tho I realize there was much against it.

What would be the effects on subsequent world history?

[Glen]

WI Japan, in the late 20's, had somehow decided to become Socialist/Communist, maintaining their full sovereignity and culture but allying themselves with Stalin's Russia in the late 1930's instead of Hitler.

Assume this happens, tho I realize there was much against it.

What would be the effects on subsequent world history?

Socialist possible, Communist not gonna happen.

[Max Sinister]

Worker-and-peasant Japan? Are the necessary prerequisitions there? Would the workers & peasants want it at all?

[OperationGreen]

Socialist possible, Communist not gonna happen.


Cant Have a Communist Hirohito can we!
Socialist only, God-Emperor

[Nicole]

The problem with having Japan turn towards the USSR as an ally is that there's alot of mutual distrust between the two and overlapping interests in that region- Sakhalin, Kuriles, Manchuria, etc.

[NapoleonXIV]

Yes, yes, yes, All so. But the last place Marx had expected success was in agricultural Russia, and there is much in Japanese culture, particularly the concepts of On and Hoon, and even some aspects of Bushido, that seems very friendly to socialism.

And politics makes strange bedfellows, with overlapping interests sometimes as much a basis for cooperation as conflict.

Now, given a Socialist Japan friendly with Russia in 1931, what happens?

[Brandonazz]

Hitler may not invade Russia during WW2 and we end up with fascism succeeding and spreading?

[Superdude]

China becomes divided between Japanese and Soviet spheres of influence. Britain and France initially are slow to react to this, but eventually reality will kick in and a Chinese government would be propped up by British and French arms and threats of force. Germany notices this, and tries to appeal to the Entente powers for a deal - Germany gets territory in Europe in exchange for aiding them against the Communist menace.

I don't know what the governments at the time would be, but its quite possible they could be as naive as the governments of OTL. So they agree to this after much debate. Germany then moves to peacefully annex Austria and the Sudetenland. Germany and Poland form something of an alliance, but its the ultimate German goal to annex Poland after the war.

[David S Poepoe]

WI Japan, in the late 20's, had somehow decided to become Socialist/Communist, maintaining their full sovereignity and culture but allying themselves with Stalin's Russia in the late 1930's instead of Hitler.

Assume this happens, tho I realize there was much against it.

What would be the effects on subsequent world history?

The military steps in and sets things right.

[Glen]

The military steps in and sets things right.

If communist, yes.

If socialist, not necessarily.

[David S Poepoe]

If communist, yes.

If socialist, not necessarily.

Not necessarily to either. Given the influence that the Army, at least had, and its direct connection with the Emperor, as well as giving some thought to the state of Japan in the 1920s, I doubt a switch to communism is likely.

[Glen]

Not necessarily to either. Given the influence that the Army, at least had, and its direct connection with the Emperor, as well as giving some thought to the state of Japan in the 1920s, I doubt a switch to communism is likely.

Huh?

I agree with you that Communism would get crushed in Taisho Japan.

What I don't agree is that Socialism in general would be.

[Earling]

How does Japan become socialist quickly without a civil war?

A form of entente with Russia might be reached (although USSR/China relations in the cold war come to mind) but it would be accomplished at the price of greater hostility from Britain and France. The USA would likely remain just as hostile for the same reasons as OTL.

On the otherhand a socialist Japan that attempts to undermine China through funding socialist or communist organisations but avoids out and out invasion would probably avoid a war with the west.

However I have a hard time imagining Japan becoming socialist without the establishment (backed up by far more foreign support than the USSR can muster) being humbled or generally beaten into submission.

[HueyLong]

Yes, yes, yes, All so. But the last place Marx had expected success was in agricultural Russia, and there is much in Japanese culture, particularly the concepts of On and Hoon, and even some aspects of Bushido, that seems very friendly to socialism.

And politics makes strange bedfellows, with overlapping interests sometimes as much a basis for cooperation as conflict.

Now, given a Socialist Japan friendly with Russia in 1931, what happens?

Ahem. No, Marx expected a revolution in Russia, but simply after the proletariat grew.

he most certainly did not epxect in an oriental despotism, wraught with superstition.

Oh, and worker-peasants were big imperialists- they were the reactionaries in Japan.

[Max Sinister]

I can't imagine that Socialist Japan would keep the emperor, and neither that the Japanese will get rid of him.

Otherwise, it might make a cool WW2 scenario - Japanese volunteers fighting the nazis in Russia...

[HelloLegend]

WI Japan, in the late 20's, had somehow decided to become Socialist/Communist, maintaining their full sovereignity and culture but allying themselves with Stalin's Russia in the late 1930's instead of Hitler.

Assume this happens, tho I realize there was much against it.

What would be the effects on subsequent world history?

Question: would there need to be a POD to erase 1905 Russo Japanese war?

[Hendryk]

There are two different aspects to consider: one in the realm of foreign policy, an alliance with the USSR, perhaps over respective spheres of influence in China; the other in domestic politics, the implementation of socialism in Japanese society. The former can happen independently from the latter; history is rife with unlikely alliances.

Now if Japan is going to turn to socialism, my guess is that it will be of a corporate kind; say, most big companies are nationalized but remain under the same management as before. There may be land reform to some extent, though I'm not sure about the structure of land ownership in post-Meiji Japan, and small-scale land ownership would be favored over collectivization (which wouldn't lead to any significant economies of scale anyway).

[NapoleonXIV]

Ahem. No, Marx expected a revolution in Russia, but simply after the proletariat grew.

he most certainly did not epxect in an oriental despotism, wraught with superstition.

Oh, and worker-peasants were big imperialists- they were the reactionaries in Japan.

I can't imagine that Socialist Japan would keep the emperor, and neither that the Japanese will get rid of him.

Otherwise, it might make a cool WW2 scenario - Japanese volunteers fighting the nazis in Russia...

How does Japan become socialist quickly without a civil war?

A form of entente with Russia might be reached (although USSR/China relations in the cold war come to mind) but it would be accomplished at the price of greater hostility from Britain and France. The USA would likely remain just as hostile for the same reasons as OTL.

On the otherhand a socialist Japan that attempts to undermine China through funding socialist or communist organisations but avoids out and out invasion would probably avoid a war with the west.

However I have a hard time imagining Japan becoming socialist without the establishment (backed up by far more foreign support than the USSR can muster) being humbled or generally beaten into submission.

Question: would there need to be a POD to erase 1905 Russo Japanese war?

True, Communism certainly was surprising in the oriental despotism of China,:D but we are talking about the modern Constitutional Monarchy of Japan in the 1920's.

The peasants were reactionaries because the rightist propaganda made them the Samurai. Had the socialists better PR in this respect they might have reminded the peasants of who had lived largely on their backs for 250 years.

Why would socialism in Japan necessarily cause a civil war, or the unseating of the Emperor? I really can't see how one necessarily causes the other:confused:

In OTL the British were initially friendly but eventually not. The Americans were...uh...hostily neutral??. In any case, neither was all that happy with a fascist Japan either.

Couldn't the establishment actually use socialism, hooked into the Japanese culture's great social cohesion, to accomplish more of their ends? Keep in mind that the Japanese have only recently started to throw off a tendency to want to imitate whatever they think is the best the West offers. (WWII was, in many ways, an imitation of Western imperialism.) It ensured their survival once but also made them anxious that no Western country should embark on a new trend of development that left them behind. Socialism, especially the modified, more capitalistic type that Lenin was pursuing in the NEP of the 20's might look like the new direction of the world.

The Russian socialists were very definitely not the Tsarists. I don't think the Russo Japanese war would be seen as applicable by either nation after the Revolution.

Good points all, and I thank you for the interest. Astute criticism is always a pleasure.

[Max Sinister]

How do the idea of having an emperor and economic equality fit together?

[SteveW]

Now if Japan is going to turn to socialism, my guess is that it will be of a corporate kind; say, most big companies are nationalized but remain under the same management as before. There may be land reform to some extent, though I'm not sure about the structure of land ownership in post-Meiji Japan, and small-scale land ownership would be favored over collectivization (which wouldn't lead to any significant economies of scale anyway).

So maybe rather than a Socialist Japan, we might be looking at a Peronist Japan?

[Hendryk]

So maybe rather than a Socialist Japan, we might be looking at a Peronist Japan?
The way I see it, "socialism with Japanese characteristics" (1930s-style) would in practice look a lot like corporate fascism, only with leftist trappings. Anyway an ideology is only what you put in it; OTL's China has come up with a type of communism that's actually a thinly disguised plutocratic oligarchy...

[Glen]

The way I see it, "socialism with Japanese characteristics" (1930s-style) would in practice look a lot like corporate fascism, only with leftist trappings. Anyway an ideology is only what you put in it; OTL's China has come up with a type of communism that's actually a thinly disguised plutocratic oligarchy...

There are two different aspects to consider: one in the realm of foreign policy, an alliance with the USSR, perhaps over respective spheres of influence in China; the other in domestic politics, the implementation of socialism in Japanese society. The former can happen independently from the latter; history is rife with unlikely alliances.

Now if Japan is going to turn to socialism, my guess is that it will be of a corporate kind; say, most big companies are nationalized but remain under the same management as before. There may be land reform to some extent, though I'm not sure about the structure of land ownership in post-Meiji Japan, and small-scale land ownership would be favored over collectivization (which wouldn't lead to any significant economies of scale anyway).


Good points!

[HueyLong]

Marx would have still labelled 20s era Japan as either feudal or oriental despotism.

The state was reactionary in ideology, and exalted a feudal social structure. The constitutional trappings were ignored, the Army ruled much of the government, and the Leader was worshipped as a god. The state had a commanding presence in the economy, and forced monopolies or cartels onto the market.

It was not some liberalist democracy.

[Nicole]

How do the idea of having an emperor and economic equality fit together?
Because he's the Emperor! :rolleyes:

It's really not nearly as bad as most contradictions put in place by communist states in the past...